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Rating Action: Moody's Affirms Wuhan Metro's A3 Rating; Outlook Stable

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Rating Action: Moody's Affirms Wuhan Metro's A3 Rating; Outlook Stable Rating Action: Moody's affirms Wuhan Metro's A3 rating; outlook stable 07 Apr 2020 Hong Kong, April 07, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Wuhan Metro Group Co., Ltd.'s A3 issuer rating and senior unsecured rating, as well as its (P)A3 senior unsecured medium-term note rating. At the same time, Moody's has maintained the stable outlook on the ratings. RATINGS RATIONALE "The affirmation reflects our assessment that Wuhan Metro's credit profile will continue to be supported by the strong recurring funding support from the government, despite service suspensions and reduced ridership due to the coronavirus outbreak in 2020," says Ada Li, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. Wuhan Metro's A3 issuer rating primarily combines (1) its ba2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA); and (2) Moody's assessment of a very high likelihood of support from, and a high level of dependence on, the Wuhan government and ultimately the Government of China (A1 stable), when needed, which provides a five-notch uplift to its final rating. This assessment of "Very High" support is underpinned by (1) the company's primary role of developing the metro system in Wuhan city, which is not commercially viable but is nationally important (public policy); (2) its controlling ownership by the Wuhan and central governments; and (3) the track record of very strong government support for the company. Moody's also considers that there is a "High" dependence level on the central government, reflecting that Wuhan Metro and the central government are exposed to common political and economic event risks. Wuhan Metro's ba2 BCA reflects its weak profitability and very high financial leverage, which in turn mirror its policy mandate with limited commercial purpose. Its BCA is constrained by (1) the company's ramping up of the metro system; (2) the risks associated with the construction and ramp-up of its metro and primary land development projects; (3) the lack of a market-oriented fare-setting mechanism for the industry as a whole; and (4) the company's more volatile earnings from its non-metro businesses, such as primary land development. On the other hand, the BCA is supported by strong recurring financial and operational support from the Wuhan municipal government and robust demand for metro services in Wuhan city. On 23 January, the Government of China (A1 stable) suspended all public transport within the city of Wuhan in Hubei province in an attempt to halt the spread of the coronavirus. Wuhan Metro's services were suspended for 64 days and partially reopened on 28 March. While Wuhan Metro has resumed six lines out of nine lines covering 262.71km (77.5% of network) it recorded just 273,900 passenger rides on 3 April, or 8.2% of 2019 average daily passenger rides. The service suspensions and reduced passenger travel incentives have lowered ridership and fare revenue. The additional passenger quarantine requirements implemented after service resumption have increased operating costs and further lowered the metro system's efficiency. Meanwhile, Moody's expects Wuhan Metro's primary land development and construction pipeline will be deferred until the city has fully restored its labor force and resumed productivity. Nevertheless, Moody's expects the Wuhan government and ultimately the Chinese government to continue providing cash subsidies and equity injections to offset the impact from reduced fare and land development revenue. After considering government grants and subsidies, Moody's estimates Wuhan Metro's funds from operations interest coverage will remain around 1.2x in 2020, largely unchanged to the level projected for 2019. However, the timely implementation of government fiscal support could be affected by local governments' priority to combat the coronavirus outbreak and to increase healthcare resources. Moreover, fiscal resources available for additional support remain constrained by the weakened local government revenue and delays in land sales, due to the severe disruptions in Wuhan, and due to the slowdown in China's overall economic growth. In addition, Moody's expects Wuhan Metro's liquidity position remains manageable, while its funding cost will benefit from the government-led monetary easing and financial support measures. At the end of September 2019, Wuhan Metro reported RMB14.7 billion in cash against short-term debt of RMB2.3 billion. It also has RMB113.2 billion of uncommitted undrawn credit facilities. The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak globally, deteriorating China and global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit effects of these developments are unprecedented. The metro sector in China has been significantly affected by the shock given government containment measures and its sensitivity to passenger traffic demand and sentiment. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. In particular, Wuhan Metro's operation remains vulnerable to further spread of coronavirus, and the pace of regional economic activities resumption. The rating also considers the following environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors. Wuhan Metro's exposure to environmental risk is low, given the important role mass transit operations play in reducing carbon emissions when compared to other modes of transport. Wuhan Metro's exposure to governance risks is low. The company's overall business profile and financial profile are underpinned by its public service nature, and it is subject to a high level of government supervision and an established fiscal allocation mechanism. The stable outlook reflects (1) the stable outlook on China's sovereign rating; and (2) the consideration that Wuhan Metro's BCA is appropriately positioned at the current level. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS The ratings could be upgraded if (1) the likelihood of support for Wuhan Metro increases, or (2) Wuhan Metro's standalone credit profile improves significantly. Moody's could raise Wuhan Metro's BCA if the company's business and financial profile improves. Credit metrics that would indicate upgrade pressure on its BCA include (1) adjusted debt/capitalization falling below 50%, and (2) adjusted funds from operations (FFO) interest coverage (including government grants) exceeding 3.0x on a sustained basis. The ratings could be downgraded if (1) the likelihood of support for Wuhan Metro decreases, (2) Wuhan Metro's standalone credit profile weakens meaningfully or (3) there is a material weakening of Wuhan Metro's policy functions. Moody's would consider lowering the company's BCA if (1) there is a significant deterioration in financial profile after considering recurring government fiscal support; (2) material delays in receiving government financial support; or (3) the company takes on higher-risk, commercial or leveraged non-metro businesses. Credit metrics that would indicate downgrade pressure on its BCA include (1) adjusted debt/capitalization exceeding 75%, and (2) adjusted FFO interest coverage (including government grants) falling below 1.0x on a sustained basis. The methodologies used in these ratings were Mass Transit Enterprises Methodology published in December 2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1105431 , and Government-Related Issuers Methodology published in February 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1186207 . Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies. Wuhan Metro Group Co., Ltd. (Wuhan Metro) is the sole platform to own and operate the metro system in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province. As of the end of September 2019, Wuhan Metro runs 9 metro lines with a total length of around 338 kilometers. The company also engages in primary land development, property development and investment, advertising and retail, and telecommunications network leasing. As of the end of 2019, the company was 88.06% owned by the Wuhan State-owned Assets Supervision and As of the end of 2019, the company was 88.06% owned by the Wuhan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and 11.94% owned by the China Development Bank Development Funds, which is ultimately 100% owned by the China Development Bank (A1 stable). REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx? docid=PBC_79004. For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings
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