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PRTF: Northern Route Workstream PRTF: Northern Route Workstream Devon County Council Assessment of Scheme Costs and Benefits 1 | 0 18 March 2016 Assessment of C osts and Benefits Devon C ounty C ouncil Assessment of Costs and Benefits PRTF: Northern Route Workstream Project No: B2300377 Document Title: Assessment of Costs and Benefits Document No.: 1 Revision: 0 Date: 18 March 2016 Client Name: Devon County Council Client No: TBC Project Manager: Chris Sanders Author: Chris Sanders / John Siraut File Name: P:\Data\DCC\Transportation\Projects\B2300377 - Okehampton to Tavistock Rail Wider Economic Impacts\02. Project Documents\01. Word\01 PRTF Northern Route Preliminary Economic Impact.docx Jacobs U.K. Limited Renslade House Bonhay Road Exeter EX4 3AY United Kingdom T +44 (0)1392 219 340 F +44 (0)1392 214 438 www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2016 Jacobs U.K. Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ Client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs and the Client. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party. Document history and status Revision Date Description By Review Approved 1 04/03/16 1st Client draft CS / JS ST CS 2 18/03/16 2nd Client Draft CS ST CS i Assessment of Costs and Benefits Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Background ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Costs .................................................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Network Rail estimated costs .............................................................................................................................. 4 2.3 Borders Railway per km costs ............................................................................................................................. 4 2.4 Preliminary Devon County Council cost estimate ............................................................................................... 4 2.5 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Potential Patronage........................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................................. 5 3.2 Methodology 1 ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.3 Methodology 2 ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 3.4 Validation of Approaches .................................................................................................................................... 8 4. Fare Revenue and Operating Costs .............................................................................................................. 11 4.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................................... 11 4.2 Benefits ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 4.3 Costs ................................................................................................................................................................. 12 5. Break-even analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 14 5.1 Comparison of Revenues and Costs................................................................................................................. 14 6. Cost Benefit Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 16 6.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................................... 16 6.2 Costs ................................................................................................................................................................. 16 6.3 Rail User Transport Economic Efficiency .......................................................................................................... 16 6.4 Marginal External Costs to Road Users ............................................................................................................ 17 6.5 Resilience Benefits ............................................................................................................................................ 18 6.6 Option Values .................................................................................................................................................... 19 6.7 Wider Benefits ................................................................................................................................................... 20 6.8 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 21 7. Sensitivity analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 22 7.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 7.2 Rolling stock assumptions ................................................................................................................................. 22 7.3 Station Capital Cost .......................................................................................................................................... 22 7.4 Station assumptions .......................................................................................................................................... 22 7.5 Taking forward the route in sections ................................................................................................................. 23 7.6 Likely Benefits under an Optimistic Planning Scenario ..................................................................................... 23 8. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 8.1 Summary of results ........................................................................................................................................... 24 Appendix A. Additional Information ........................................................................................................................... 25 ii Assessment of Costs and Benefits 1. Introduction 1.1.1 Devon County Council (DCC) commissioned Jacobs to undertake an assessment of the Peninsual Rail Task Force (PRTF) Northern Route scheme. This project seeks to identify the conditions required for a sustainable railway serving the South West peninsula and the likely conclusions of an Economic Case, were a bid for funding to Central Government to be made. 1.2 Background 1.2.1 Following a breach of the railway at Dawlish caused by extreme weather in February 2014, the Government commissioned Network Rail to report on options to maintain a resilient rail service to the South West peninsula in the event of extreme weather events occurring again. The study forms a part of Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process. 1.2.2 Several options were identified in addition to strengthening the existing route and appraisal work was commissioned by Network Rail to assess the outline business case for each of the seven potential diversionary routes it identified. Economic appraisal of the alternative route options, consistent with Department for Transport (DfT) WebTAG guidance, demonstrated that each option represents poor value for money. 1.2.3 However, the assessments were undertaken under the assumption that the alternative routes would replace the Dawlish line for travel between Exeter and Plymouth and beyond. The appraisal focussed on the costs and benefits of providing an improved service from Exeter to Plymouth and the resilience benefits brought about by reduced disruption. 1.2.4 This report revisits several of the assumptions underlying the assessment of Option 3 (Alternative Route A) - a reinstated railway via Tavistock and
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