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Private Financing of Rolling Stock Developments in Europe

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Private financing of rolling stock Developments in Europe Munich, May 2019 Contents Page A. Objectives, procedure and scope 3 B. Key findings 7 C. Results by region and segment 16 1. Western Europe 17 2. Eastern Europe 25 © Roland Berger Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 2 A. Objectives, procedure and scope Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 3 The aim of the study was to assess the importance of private financing for new rolling stock projects in Europe Setup of the study Objectives Procedure > Determine absolute and relative < > Analysis of ≈ 590 rolling stock projects (new vehicles) in the years importance of private financing for 2015 to 2017 in 23 countries rolling stock projects, focusing on > As in the last two studies1), the methodology has been kept constant – Different product categories (VHS/High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Urban > Projects were classified as publicly or privately financed depending on the Systems, Locomotives and ownership structure of the procuring entity Coaches/Freight wagons) – All purchases from state-owned entities were considered as being publicly financed – Aggregated Eastern/Western European due to government funding and explicit or implicit state guarantees markets and major submarkets including – If specific project-based funding information was available and revealed private Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, financing portions, this was taken into account pro rata even if the procuring entity Switzerland and the United Kingdom was publicly held – Joint ventures were considered private to the extent of the private party's share in the joint venture – Procurements made by privately held entities were considered as privately financed - even if the operator purchased the rolling stock for a PSO-contract - regardless of whether the purchase is financed by debt or equity 1) Private financing of rolling stock, March 2017 and January 2016 Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 4 All projects were assigned according to the product categories used in the UNIFE World Rail Market Study Scope – Product categories VHS/High > Very High Speed Trains (≥300 kph) Speed > High Speed Trains (220–299 kph) Multiple > DMUs (≤160 kph) > EMUs (≤160 kph) Units > DMUs (161–219 kph) > EMUs (161–219 kph) Urban > Light Rail Vehicles Systems > Metro Vehicles > Automated Systems Locomotives > Electric Locomotives > Diesel Locomotives > Shunters Coaches/ > Single-deck Coaches Freight wagons > Double-deck Coaches > Wagons (Freight) Source: UNIFE World Rail Market Study 2018 Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 5 The analysis was based on a project database covering all significant European rolling stock markets Geographical scope and market overview by product category > The scope of this study is rolling stock order intake in Europe with an average annual market volume of EUR 14.95 bn in the years 2015-17 > Of the ≈ 590 projects analyzed from a customer's perspective, 149 Sweden (25%) were in Germany, 81 (14%) in France, 58 (10%) in Poland, 45 Finland (8%) in Italy, 40 (7%) in the United Kingdom and 34 (6%) in Switzerland Norway > Average market volume per project was approximately EUR 75 m Netherlands Denmark Average annual total market volume by product category, 2015-171) Poland [EUR bn, p.a.] UK Czech Republic Germany Belgium Slovakia Europe Total GER GBR FRA ITA SUI Others 14.95 Switzerland Austria Hungary Multiple Units 7.86 France Romania Serbia Urban Systems 2.92 Bulgaria Italy Coaches/Wagons 1.67 Spain Turkey Locomotives 1.31 Portugal Greece VHS/High Speed 1.19 Covered by project based analysis Covered by extrapolation 1) Yearly average of order income from 2015 through 2017 Source: UNIFE World Rail Market Study 2018, Roland Berger analysis Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 6 B. Key findings Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 7 Private financing covers 23% of European rolling stock order volume Overall results for private financing shares (2015-17)1) By volume [EUR m, p.a.] By projects [#] General insights > Private financing accounts for about 23% (EUR 3.40 bn) of total average annual market volume2) 3,403 > 42% of all projects are backed by private financing, either fully (23%) 250 or partially in joint ventures (42%) 340 > Private funding is considered important with regard to volume for 11,552 (58%) the purchase of Coaches and Freight cars (54%), Locomotives (77%) (46%) and VHS/High Speed Trains (40%) > In terms of absolute private financing, Multiple Units (EUR 1.42 bn, p.a.) are the most important product category By volume and region [EUR m, p.a.] Regional insights > In Western Europe, all product categories rely on private Western Europe 10,431 3,117 23% financing; throughout Eastern Europe, Urban Systems are entirely financed by public entities > Private financing is comparatively important in Slovakia (62%), Eastern Europe 286 20% the United Kingdom (58%) and the Czech Republic (43%); higher private shares only appear based on a relatively small 1,121 number of projects in countries like Greece and Portugal Private finance Public finance 1) Yearly average of order income from 2015 through 2017 2) If leasing from public entities to private operators is regarded as private financing, the share amounts to 26% Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 8 The share of private financing in rolling stock purchases increased steadily since 2011-13 both in absolute and percentage terms Overall results compared to the previous studies Development of volume [EUR m, p.a.]1) Trend insights Total [EUR m, p.a.] 23% > Total annual investment volume in Europe, which fell slightly from EUR 13.33 bn in 2011-13 to EUR 12.12 bn 19% 17.989 13% 3,403 in 2013-15, has increased to EUR 14.95 bn 1,670 20% > Since 2011-13, the annual volume of private financing has steadily increased by EUR 1.73 bn, 2,461 representing 23% of total investment in the most recent study > The overall increase of private financing volume was mostly due to further growth in the Locomotives and Coaches/Freight wagons sector; private funding has also risen in the High Speed Trains subsector 81% 77.959 11,659 11,552 9,656 > The slight decrease in public financing was caused by lower VHS/High Speed investments by publicly held entities over the period under consideration > The share of projects involving private financing has risen considerably from 18% to 42% over the observation period which is mainly due to an increasing number of Locomotives, Coaches/Freight wagons and 2011-13 2013-15 2015-17 VHS/High Speed projects ∑ 2011-17 Private finance Public finance > Total private financing volume for 2011-17 amounts to 1) Yearly average of order income from 2015 through 2017 EUR 18 bn Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 9 Private financing has become more important for Locomotives, Coaches/Freight wagons and High Speed trains Key findings per product category compared to previous studies Share of private financing by volume [%] Trend insights by product category > The rise in private financing in the VHS/High Speed sector is 55 Coaches/ mainly due to increased private funding in High Speed projects in the UK and Italy, while funding for other VHS projects remains 50 Freight cars mainly public Locomotives 45 > In the UK, private railway companies like First Group operate HS 40 VHS/High lines such as FTPE; the predominantly privately financed company Speed NTV operates HS projects throughout Italy 35 > For EMUs, private financing remained stable compared to the 30 last study, but decreasing absolute volumes of DMU private financing led to a lower share of private financing in Multiple Units 25 > Urban Systems remain almost exclusively publicly financed 20 Multiple Units > While total investment volume for Diesel Locomotives has 15 decreased in the past years, private financing for Electric Locomotives and Shunters has grown, leading to a 15 pp 10 increase 5 > Increasing private funding for Single-deck Coaches and Urban Systems Freight cars led to an overall growth by 23 pp, while most Double- 0 deck Coaches were publicly financed 2011-13 2013-15 2015-17 Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 10 Private financing was widely used for Multiple Units, Locomotives, HS and Wagons while Urban Systems and VHS rely on public funds Key findings per product category [2015-17] VHS/High > The subcategory of Very High Speed Trains is generally dominated by state- Speed owned operators such as state railways (private financing volume share 3%) > High Speed Trains are increasingly financed by private entities (68% of volume) Multiple > With 42% of total private ROS financing, Multiple Units remain the most important Units category of private investments in rolling stock (in absolute terms) > 40 entirely or partially privately financed projects were ordered Urban > As most local transport networks are operated by public authorities or enterprises, Systems private financing plays a minor role in Urban Systems (<1%) > In the research period, 5 projects with private financing have been considered Locomotives > 46% of locomotive investment volume is covered by private financing, indicating the high importance of private financing in this segment > 122 (out of 171) projects with shares of private financing were ordered Coaches/ > Private financing is well established in the Wagon, but to a lesser extent in the Wagons Coaches, segment > A total of 74 partially or fully privately financed projects have been identified Private Financing of Rolling Stock. May 2019 11 Liberalization of market segments
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