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Greek Shipping Portfolios

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Greek Shipping Portfolios Key Developments and Growth in Greek Ship-Finance June 2020 By Ted Petropoulos, Head, Petrofin Research ©. Petrofin Research© presents, for the 19th year running, an overview and an in-depth analysis of the bank loan portfolios to Greek shipping, as of 31st December 2019. Petrofin wish to thank all participating banks for their steadfast support, without which this research would not have been possible. The portfolios show both the shipping loans outstanding, as well as loans committed but undrawn. The committed but undrawn loans may be viewed as an indication of each bank’s ship lending momentum and / or the extent of its involvement in newbuilding finance. Contents 1. Main Findings p. 2 2. Petrofin Index Of Greek Shipfinance p. 3 3. Total Greek Shipfinance Portfolio As Of End 2019 p. 4 4. Research And Analysis A. The Greek shipfinance market as of end 2019 p. 6 B. Analysis of the 3 Bank Groups p. 14 C. Newbuilding finance research p. 27 D. The Greek Shipping Syndications market p. 28 5. Highlights Of This Year’s Research p. 29 6. The Outlook For 2020 And Beyond p. 30 1 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2020 1. Main findings Highlight points of this year’s results for Greek ship finance are as follows: Bank shipfinance for Greek shipping has slowed down its decline further to -0.13% compared to -1.52% during 2018 from -5.62% in 2017 and -8.77% during 2016. The Petrofin Index for Greek Shipfinance, which commenced at 100 in 2001 and peaked at 443 in 2008, fell from 322 to 321. The overall Greek loans (both drawn and committed but undrawn) booked both in Greece and worldwide as of 31/12/2019 fell to $53, 107.8m from $53,176.32 in 2018, $53,994.96 in 2017 and $57,211.35m in 2016. Specifically, Drawn loans are down by -2.38% compared to -1.12% in 2018, -3.69% in 2017 and -5.34% the year before. However, Commitments have shown a large increase of 43.75% compared to a continuous slowdown: -8.8% in 2018, -30.63% in 2017 and -38% in 2016. Greek banks continue the upward trend that started in 2017 and their portfolios are up by 1.05% (including loan portfolio sales executed by 31/12/2019), a slower growth than the 8.03% growth of 2018. International banks WITH a Greek presence continued to reduce their exposure, this time by only 5.19%, compared to -14.13% in 2018, -10.52% in 2017, -6.5% in 2016, - 4.96% in 2015. HSBC and BNP Paribas are the only two which showed growth. The International Banks WITHOUT a Greek presence have risen again for the second year in a row by 3.15%. The number of banks involved in Greek shipfinance has gone up to 55 from 52 in 2018, with the addition of Astrobank (Cypriot bank included in Greek banks), Iyo Bank and Merchant and Maritime (cited in Other Banks). Credit Suisse remains in the top position with another substantial increase of 10%. The top 10 Greek ship financing banks showed a small decrease of -2.48%, compared to the small increase of the previous year of 1.14% and their share of the total Greek portfolio has gone down to 56.33% from 57.69% in 2018, 56.17% in 2017 and 55.19% in 2016. European banks still account for the vast majority of total loans at 75.8% down from 76.9%, in 2018, 78.70% in 2017, 81.04% in 2016 The Lead Managers are down by 5.48%, although BNP Paribas has increased its leadership position by 189%. Forward commitments to newbuildings increased by 11% showing a strong momentum by year end. 2 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2020 2. Petrofin Index of Greek ship finance The Petrofin Index for Greek ship finance published by Petrofin Research © is slightly down to 321 from 322 last year. Graph 1: Petrofin Index Petrofin Index of Greek ship finance 500 450 443 405 405 409 400 401 398 387 379 372 350 346 327 322 321 300 281 250 218 200 196 150 155 129 100 100 50 The Petrofin Index0 of the Greek shipping portfolios since 2001 has fallen from a high of 443 in 2008 to 321, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 i.e. -27.53% over the last 12 years. Petrofin Bank Research© - as of end 2019, June 2020 3 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2020 3. Total Greek ship finance portfolio as of end 2019 Petrofin Bank Research © The annual results by Petrofin Bank Research©, now released for the 19th year running, reflect the exposure of all banks engaged in lending to Greek owners, at the end of 2019. As of end 2019, the total Greek shipping portfolio stood at $53,108m, showing a minor reduction of 0.13%. Graph 2: Greek ship finance portfolios Greek Shipping Portfolios and their annual Growth over 19 years - in US$million Petrofin Research © www.petrofin.gr June 2020 $80,000 50% 44.31% $73,228 $70,000 $66,941 $67,020 $67,694 $66,235 $65,780 40% $64,019 $62,712 $61,498 $60,000 $57,211 28.66% 28.45% 30% 26.61% $53,995 $53,176 $53,108 $50,000 20.19% $46,387 20% 11.62% $40,000 $36,112 9.39% $32,353 10% $30,000 4.10% $25,554 2.20% $21,261 0% -0.13% $20,000 -1.17% -2.04% -1.52% $16,525 -2.83% -5.62% -6.51% -8.48% -10% $10,000 -8.77% $0 -20% 4 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2020 Graph 3: All banks ranked in terms of their Greek portfolios (in US$m): Petrofin Research © www.petrofin.gr All banks ranked in terms of their Greek portfolios (in US$m) June 2020 Credit Suisse* $6,500 $1,200 BNP Paribas $2,730 $420 HSBC* $2,600 $200 Citi $2,500 $200 Piraeus Bank $2,350 $150 Alpha Bank $2,450 $50 Eurobank $2,022 $149 ING* $2,000 $150 DVB $2,138 $6 ABN AMRO $1,900 $200 National Bank of Greece $2,033 $27 Hamburg Commercial Bank* $1,900 $100 CHINA EXIM* $1,900 KEXIM* $1,500 KFW $940 $364 Nordea $1,247 $14 DNB $1,005 $78 Unicredit $700 $100 China Everbright Bank* $750 Calyon* $700 DB - Deutsche Shipping* $600 CIT Maritime Finance $300 $290 China Development Bank* $450 Aegean Baltic $248 $18 Total exposure to Greek shipping, as of end 2019: $53,107.80 Bank of Cyprus $190 (Previous year’s total: $53,176.32) Nord LB $168 Amsterdam Trade Bank $162 Petrofin Bank Research© - June 2020 Qatar National Bank* $150 Barwa Bank* $150 Hellenic Bank* $150 NIBC* $140 Astrobank $79 $9 OTHER BANKS (23) $6,732 $0.00 $1,000.00 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 $5,000.00 $6,000.00 $7,000.00 $8,000.00 Drawn Portfolios Committed But Undrawn Portfolios Credit Suisse* continued to hold the top position for the sixth year running , with BNP Paribas now at the second place replacing DVB who has decided to leave ship finance. The big three Greek banks occupy the top 5th, 6th, and 7th position. 5 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2020 4. Research and Analysis A. The Greek shipfinance market as of end 2019 Table 1: Bank ranking – in US$m Greek shipping portfolios as of end 2019 Rank Bank Drawn Committed but Undrawn Total 1 Credit Suisse* $6,500.00 $1,200.00 $7,700.00 2 BNP Paribas $2,730.00 $420.00 $3,150.00 3 HSBC* $2,600.00 $200.00 $2,800.00 4 Citi $2,500.00 $200.00 $2,700.00 5 Piraeus Bank $2,350.00 $150.00 $2,500.00 6 Alpha Bank $2,450.00 $50.00 $2,500.00 7 Eurobank $2,022.00 $149.00 $2,171.00 8 ING* $2,000.00 $150.00 $2,150.00 9 DVB $2,138.00 $6.00 $2,144.00 10 ABN AMRO $1,900.00 $200.00 $2,100.00 11 National Bank of Greece $2,032.50 $26.60 $2,059.10 12 Hamburg Commercial Bank* $1,900.00 $100.00 $2,000.00 13 CHINA EXIM* $1,900.00 $0.00 $1,900.00 14 KEXIM* $1,500.00 $0.00 $1,500.00 15 KFW $940.01 $363.75 $1,303.76 16 Nordea $1,246.98 $14.08 $1,261.06 17 DNB $1,005.00 $77.90 $1,082.90 18 Unicredit $700.00 $100.00 $800.00 19 China Everbright Bank* $750.00 $0.00 $750.00 20 Calyon* $700.00 $0.00 $700.00 21 DB - Deutsche Shipping* $600.00 $0.00 $600.00 22 CIT Maritime Finance $300.00 $290.00 $590.00 23 China Development Bank* $450.00 $0.00 $450.00 24 Aegean Baltic $248.20 $18.10 $266.30 25 Bank of Cyprus $190.00 $0.00 $190.00 26 Nord LB $168.00 $0.00 $168.00 27 Amsterdam Trade Bank $162.00 $0.00 $162.00 28 Qatar National Bank* $150.00 $0.00 $150.00 29 Barwa Bank* $150.00 $0.00 $150.00 30 Hellenic Bank* $150.00 $0.00 $150.00 31 NIBC* $140.00 $0.00 $140.00 32 Astrobank $79.18 $8.50 $87.68 OTHER BANKS (23) $6,732.00 $0.00 $6,732.00 Total Greek portfolio $49,383.87 $3,723.93 $53,107.80 Overall number of banks 55 Petrofin Bank Research © - June 2020 *Market Estimate 6 Petrofin Research© - www.petrofin.gr June 2020 Graph 4: Bank exposure in terms of bank groups is as follows: Petrofin Research © Greek shipping bank portfolios since 2001 – per bank group www.petrofin.gr June 2020 in US$m $40,000 $38,984 $36,777 $35,882 $35,290 $35,000 $34,040 $33,914 $30,537 $30,000 $29,441 $27,104 $25,707 $24,992 $25,000 $24,252 $26,435 $23,759 $24,501 $20,231 $23,437 $19,540 $19,161 $20,000 $17,887 $23,990 $15,840 $16,141 $15,884 $21,467 $14,517 $18,433 $13,939 $17,300 $17,477 $15,000 $14,469 $12,705 $14,788 $16,944 $10,819 $9,924 $10,125 $14,102 $10,487 $9,091 $9,821 $12,070 $9,173 $8,721 $10,000 $8,185 $14,061 $10,049 $7,050 $9,788 $8,604 $7,347 $6,165 $5,000 $5,642 $6,344 $6,523 $4,472 $3,310 $0 Dec-12 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-01 Greek Banks International Banks WITHOUT a Greek presence Inernational Banks WITH a Greek presence Greek banks and banks without a Greek presence continue their growth, whilst banks with a Greek presence continue their decline.
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