Cooperative Banking Sector Germany Primary Credit Analyst: Heiko Verhaag, CFA, FRM, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9215;
[email protected] Secondary Contacts: Harm Semder, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9158;
[email protected] Claudio Hantzsche, Frankfurt + 49 693 399 9188;
[email protected] Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Outlook Rationale Related Criteria Related Research WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT FEBRUARY 26, 2021 1 Cooperative Banking Sector Germany Major Rating Factors Strengths: Issuer Credit Rating • Mutual support among core group members and a comprehensive protection None scheme. • No. 2 market position in German retail banking. • Strong capitalization from high earnings retention and ownership structure that puts stability over payouts. • Franchise-driven stable deposits and sizable surplus liquidity from local cooperative banks. Weaknesses: • Relatively low risk-adjusted profitability by international standards, with margins under increased pressure due to the lower-for-longer interest rate environment. • German cooperative banks' high cost base, partly attributable to the decentralized network. • Increasing competition and margin pressure, particularly in core products, stemming from big tech companies and digital banks. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT FEBRUARY 26, 2021 2 Cooperative Banking Sector Germany Outlook S&P Global Ratings' negative outlook on the Cooperative Banking Sector Germany, including all core group members, reflects growing economic and industry risks for the German banking market, which the COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated. This puts continued pressure on the sector's risk exposures and risk-adjusted profitability, meaning that we could lower our ratings within the next two years. Downside scenario More specifically, if we revise our anchor for German banks to 'bbb+' from 'a-', we could lower our 'AA-' issuer credit rating (ICR) on the sector's core members, and our related issue ratings on the banks' senior preferred debt, senior subordinated debt, and regulatory capital instruments.