Airports Commission: Interim Report December 2013 Airports Commission: Interim Report December 2013 Airports Commission 6th Floor Sanctuary Buildings 20 Great Smith Street London SW1P 3BT Web: www.gov.uk/government/organisations/airports-commission Email: [email protected] © Crown copyright 2013, except where otherwise stated Copyright in the typographical arrangement rests with the Crown. You may re-use this information (not including logos or third-party material) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: [email protected]. Where we have identified any third-party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. Contents Chair’s foreword 4 Executive summary 6 1. Background and methodology 16 2. The global aviation sector 23 3. The UK airports sector 54 4. The UK’s long-term capacity requirements 102 5. Making best use of existing capacity 136 6. Adding capacity in London and the South East 172 7. Next steps 207 Glossary 214 List of figures and tables 223 Appendices and technical reports1 Appendix 1: Supporting Appendix on short-term options Technical Report on short-term options Appendix 2: Supporting Appendix on long-term options Technical Report on long-term options Appendix 3: Technical Appendix: forecasting and modelling 1 The suite of supporting documentation underpinning Chapters is available on the website, https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/airports-commission 5 Chair’s foreword When the Airports Commission membership was announced in November last year, my colleagues and I received more commiserations than congratulations. Few commentators failed to point out that ours was the latest in a long series of so far largely fruitless attempts to grapple with the problem of airport capacity in a densely populated island. A few supportive voices noted that the problem nonetheless needed to be solved, more particularly at a time when, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the country was thinking hard about its place in the world. While that process of rethinking has not concluded, there is a broad consensus that the UK must further develop its links with the fastest growing regions of the world. Whether that involves growth in exports of goods and services or of inbound tourists and students, aviation connectivity seems likely to be an important element in the mix. And around 6 million Britons travel abroad each year, the great majority by air. So the economic imperative to resolve the problem is strengthening by the year, but there is also a growing realisation that the expansion of aviation must be set in the context of a comprehensive approach to the challenge of climate change. As the other sectors of the economy decarbonise more rapidly, aviation emissions will become a larger proportion of the total. And local environmental impacts, notably the nuisance and health implications of noise, must be weighed in the balance. My colleagues and I are not naïve enough to think that the analysis in this report will miraculously deliver a consensus on the way forward. But we hope that the many people who have responded to our consultations – and we are grateful to all of them – will accept that we have made an effort to grapple with the conflicting points of view and to produce reasonable responses to their points. We hope we have clarified the arguments, updated earlier analysis, assessed the way the aviation world is changing and identified a realistic set of options for future expansion. We were conscious of the importance of avoiding unnecessary costs and anxiety for communities across the South East, unless we saw a credible case for a commercially viable and sustainable development at a proposed site. Speaking personally I am very grateful to my Commission colleagues – John Armitt, Ricky Burdett, Vivienne Cox and Julia King (and Geoff Muirhead who stood down in September) – for their thoughtful and committed work so far. We are also grateful to our hard-working team of officials and others, ably led by Phil Graham. 6 Chair’s foreword In sporting terms, this is a game of two halves. The Interim Report, published here, is the end of the beginning. In 2014 we will move on to the next phase of our work. We remain confident that a solution can be found, which allows the UK to maintain its strong position in world aviation, while respecting the inhabitants of those communities which most feel the side effects. Sir Howard Davies Chair, Airports Commission 7 Executive summary 1 Decisions on airport location and capacity are among the most important strategic choices a country or city can make, influencing the economic, environmental and social development of cities and regions more than almost any other single planning decision. They are also among the most contentious. 2 Alongside economic benefits, airports bring noise, air pollution and carbon emissions, all of which can have significant impacts on the environment and on the quality of life for people who live or work nearby. The planning process must therefore ensure that decisions on airport capacity balance local considerations with the national interest. 3 In addition, most major UK airports are – unusually in international terms – in private ownership. This means that airport planning must also take proper account of commercial considerations. Airports will not choose to finance and build additional capacity unless they are confident it will be heavily utilised. 4 The question of UK airport capacity has been considered a number of times over past decades. The Roskill Commission in 1968 recommended a new airport at Cublington, with a minority report favouring Maplin Sands. Neither airport was built. More recently, the 2003 White Paper The Future of Air Transport concluded that a second runway should be built at Stansted, followed by a third at Heathrow, if certain environmental standards could be met. That conclusion was rejected by the incoming coalition Government after the 2010 General Election. 5 The Airports Commission (the Commission) was set up in 2012 to take a fresh and independent look at the UK’s future airport capacity needs. It has been tasked with producing: ●● An Interim Report (this document) by the end of 2013, setting out the nature, scale, and timing of steps needed to maintain the UK’s status as an international hub for aviation, alongside recommendations for making better use of the UK’s existing runway capacity over the next five years; and, ●● A final report by summer 2015, setting out recommendations on how to meet any need for additional airport capacity in the longer-term. 8 Executive summary 6 To facilitate the process of reaching final recommendations, and reduce uncertainty, it has also sought to identify a list of the most credible options for new runway capacity, which will be further developed and appraised before the final report. 7 The Commission has aimed to generate a greater consensus on airport policy by following an approach that is: ●● Integrated: The Commission has considered a range of economic, social and environmental factors that affect how much – and what sort of – airport capacity is needed in the UK. It has not followed a mechanistic ‘predict and provide’ model, based on forecasting future demand for aviation and then meeting that demand no matter the cost. It has commissioned new research and analysis and sought to consider impacts across the whole of the system, including on air traffic and air space, surface access to airports, cost and deliverability. ●● Collaborative: The Commission has engaged extensively with a broad range of interested parties, through public evidence sessions, a programme of meetings and visits, and a series of discussion papers on key topics. As the number of responses to the discussion papers indicates, the papers were important for advancing debate on key topics such as connectivity, climate change, aviation noise, and airport operational models. The Commission also invited submissions on how to make best use of existing runway capacity, and proposals for adding new airport capacity in the longer-term. It also appointed a panel of leading experts to advise it on key issues. The world has changed since previous reviews of UK airport capacity 8 While the UK has debated airport policy the world has changed. Globalisation and technological innovation are driving an increase in cross-border flows of goods, services and people. The global economy’s centre of gravity is shifting from west to east. Lifestyles have also changed, with many people taking advantage of European integration to live and work outside their country of origin. 9 Aviation has had to adapt to these changes. Two parallel trends can be seen: ●● Consolidation and network integration focused on major aviation hubs. In the most liberalised markets such as the United States and, increasingly, Europe, significant market share has been captured by very large carriers, often formed through mergers. Three major global ‘alliances’ between airlines have emerged – Star Alliance, SkyTeam, and oneworld. These alliances have developed global route networks focused on major aviation hubs in the United States, Europe and, more recently, the Middle East and Asia. 9 ●● The emergence of new competitors and new business models, especially in the low-cost and point-to-point markets. The position of the major American and European carriers is being challenged by rapidly growing Middle Eastern and Asian airlines and by competition from low-cost carriers. The low-cost sector has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, and is continuing to expand into new markets such as business travel and long-haul services.