Types of Semi-Presidentialism and Party Competition Structures in Democracies: the Cases of Portugal and Peru Gerson Francisco J
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TYPES OF SEMI-PRESIDENTIALISM AND PARTY COMPETITION STRUCTURES IN DEMOCRACIES: THE CASES OF PORTUGAL AND PERU GERSON FRANCISCO JULCARIMA ALVAREZ Licentiate in Sociology, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (Peru), 2005. A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS in POLITICAL SCIENCE Department of Political Science University of Lethbridge LETHBRIDGE, ALBERTA, CANADA © Gerson F. Julcarima Alvarez, 2020 TYPES OF SEMI-PRESIDENTIALISM AND PARTY COMPETITION STRUCTURES IN DEMOCRACIES: THE CASES OF PORTUGAL AND PERU GERSON FRANCISCO JULCARIMA ALVAREZ Date of Defence: November 16, 2020 Dr. A. Siaroff Professor Ph.D. Thesis Supervisor Dr. H. Jansen Professor Ph.D. Thesis Examination Committee Member Dr. J. von Heyking Professor Ph.D. Thesis Examination Committee Member Dr. Y. Belanger Professor Ph.D. Chair, Thesis Examination Committee ABSTRACT This thesis analyzes the influence that the semi-presidential form of government has on the degree of closure of party competition structures. Thus, using part of the axioms of the so-called Neo-Madisonian theory of party behavior and Mair's theoretical approach to party systems, the behavior of parties in government in Portugal (1976-2019) and Peru (1980-1991 and 2001-2019) is analyzed. The working hypotheses propose that the president-parliamentary form of government promotes a decrease in the degree of closure of party competition structures, whereas the premier- presidential form of government promotes either an increase or a decrease in the closure levels of said structures. The investigation results corroborate that apart from the system of government, the degree of closure depends on the combined effect of the following factors: whether the president's party controls Parliament, the concurrence or not of presidential and legislative elections, and whether the party competition is bipolar or multipolar. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ............................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... viii List of Abbreviations and Party Acronyms………...……………………………………… ix Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 1: Theoretical Approaches on Semi-Presidentialism and Party Systems ............... 12 1.1 Semi-Presidentialism as A Type of Government: Alternative Definitions and Literature Review ................................................................................................... 13 1.1.1 A Brief Assessment of Semi-Presidentialism’s Studies ............................ 20 1.1.2 A Gap in The Literature: Government System and Party System Institutionalization ...................................................................................... 27 1.2 Analytical Perspectives on Party Systems: Frozen, Institutionalized or Closed? .. 30 1.2.1 An Explanation of The Emergence of Party Systems: The Freezing Hypothesis .................................................................................................. 31 1.2.2 The Party Systems Institutionalization Approach and Its Limits............... 34 1.2.3 Party System Institutionalization and The Governmental Arena ............... 38 Chapter 2: Government Structures and Structures of Party Competition ............................ 45 2.1 The Effect of The Separation of Powers on The Behavior of Political Parties...... 46 2.1.1 Political Parties According to Neo-Madisonian Theory ............................ 47 2.1.2 Party Dilemmas According to Forms of Government: The Origins of The Presidentialized Party ......................................................................... 51 2.1.2.1 Election and Deselection of Candidates ....................................... 53 2.1.2.2 Dilemmas During the Electoral Competition ............................... 55 2.1.2.3 Government Dilemmas ................................................................. 57 iv 2.2 Could Party Presidentialization Occur in Semi-Presidentialism? ......................... 59 2.2.1 Reflections on Formal Powers in The Formation of Ministerial Cabinets 61 2.2.2 Variants of Party Presidentialization in the Premier-Presidential System ........................................................................................................ 71 2.2.3 Variants of Party Presidentialization in the President-Parliamentary System ........................................................................................................ 74 2.3 Incorporating the Effects of Government Structures into Structures of Party Competition ............................................................................................................ 76 2.3.1 The Point of Convergence Between Governmental and Party Structures: The Government Arena .............................................................................. 77 2.3.2 Forms of Government and Structures of Competition: A Model of Interpretation .............................................................................................. 79 2.3.3 Structures of Competition in Semi-Presidential Systems: Hypotheses, Variables, And Indicators .......................................................................... 84 Chapter 3: Portugal: Constitutional Changes and Variations in Its Structures of Competition ........................................................................................................................ 100 3.1 The System of Government After The “Estado Novo”: The Formal Rules and Their Actors ......................................................................................................... 101 3.1.1 Formal Powers and The Appointment-Dismissal Game According to The Constitution of 1976 ......................................................................... 104 3.1.2 Governments and Presidents According to The Constitution of 1976 ..... 108 3.1.3 Formal Powers and The Appointment-Dismissal Game According to The Constitution of 1982 ......................................................................... 114 3.1.4 Governments and Presidents According to The Constitution of 1982 ..... 117 3.2 Did the Form of Government Affect Structures of Party Competition? ............. 128 3.2.1 Party Presidentialization In Portugal Before and After Constitutional Reforms .................................................................................................... 129 3.2.2 Structures of Competition and The Index of Closure .............................. 134 v 3.2.3 Structures of Competition, Party Fragmentation and The Rise of Independents ............................................................................................ 138 3.3 By Way of Conclusion: An Explanation of The Recent Variation of The Structures of Competition .................................................................................... 144 Chapter 4: Peru: The Cost of Keeping the President-Parliamentary System ..................... 149 4.1 Presidential or Semi-Presidential? The Peruvian Form of Government Since The 1980s ..................................................................................................................... 150 4.2 Presidents, Cabinets and Party Presidentialization in Peru ................................... 158 4.2.1 From The "All-Mighty" Presidents to The Traumatic Solution (1980- 1992) ........................................................................................................ 159 4.2.2 From Minority Presidents to The Constitutional Dissolution of Congress (2001-2019) .............................................................................................. 166 4.3 Presidentialization And Structures of Party Competition Since 1980 ................. 179 4.3.1 Mirage or Reality? Structures of Competition and Democratic Breakdown ............................................................................................... 179 4.3.2 Did A Less Closed Structure of Party Competition Emerge? .................. 184 4.3.3 Does Parliamentary Fragmentation in The Trend of Structures of Competition Matter? ................................................................................ 187 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 190 References .......................................................................................................................... 202 Appendix 1: Post War Semi-Presidential Countries .......................................................... 212 Appendix 2: Votes Percentages of Portuguese Elections for The Assembly of the Republic, 1975-2019 .......................................................................................................... 215 Appendix 3: Party Fragmentation Versus Index of Closure in Peru .................................. 216 Appendix 4: Peruvian Political Parties and Electoral Alliances ........................................ 217 Appendix 5: Effective Number of “Parliamentary Groups” in Peru (2001-2016) ............. 219 vi LIST OF TABLES 1.1 The Outcome Variable in Empirical Studies of Premier-Presidentialism and President-Parliamentarism ...........................................................................................