Rob Huebert Rhueb Ert@ Ucal Gary.Ca
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Centre for Military and Strategic Studies THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING ARCTIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT TThe Society Of Naval Architects And Marine Engineers – Arctic Section Rob Huebert Rhue ber t@ucal gary.ca Calgary April 20 , 2012 Main Themes • Increasing International and Canadian Debate as to what the Arctic will look like in the future – physical; economic; cultural; and geopolitical • A New Arctic Security Environment is Forming on a Global Basis – What will it look like? • How will this impact Canada? United S?WhdCddhUidStates? What does Canada and the United States need to do? The Transforming Arctic • The Arctic is a state of massive transformation – Climate Change – Resource Development – (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $108 barrel) – Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization The Image of Change: Accessibility The Melting Ice: Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008 Source: Canadian Ice Service The Economics: The Hope of Resources Oil and Gas: Oil Resources and Gas of the North Source: AMAP Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic The Changing Technologies: PdAiLNGProposed Arctic LNG Source: Samsung Heavy Industries New Signs of Cooperation • Public Pronouncements • Creation of Arctic Council • Application of UNCLOS • Norway-RiMiiBRussia Maritime Bound ary Delimitation 2010 • Arctic Council – Search and Rescue Agreement 2010 • Public Pronouncements….. New Signs of Competition • Russia – Renewed Assertiveness/ Petrodollars • United States – Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act – International Role as remaining Superpower •Norway – Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia •Denmark – Issues with Greenland – social; energy – Rebuilding Armed Forces • Iceland – Economic melt-down/Volcano melt-down – Developpging relationship with China • Finland/Sweden – Closer cooperation with NATO • Canada – Re-examining its Arctic capabilities – Renewed Assertiveness Policy Statements • United States – National Security Presidential Directive 66 Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009) – USN Arctic Roadmap • Russia – Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007 -2015 – Principles of State Policy in the Arctic to 2020, (September, 2008)[ • Norway – The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy, ” (April 2007) – Norwegian Defence 2008 (June 2008): • Canada – Northern Strategy (July 2009) •Denmark – Danish Defence Agreement 2010-2014 Copenhagen (June 2009) Source: http://cmss.ucalgary.ca/foreignpolicy New and Developing Arctic Force Capa biliti es • Russia – 6 - Borey SSBN; 2- Yasen SSN; 5-6 Carrier Groups; New Bomber 2020; 2 4Misteal Assault Vessels • United States – F-22, Virginia class; ABM • Norway – Fridtjof Nansen Frigates; F-35; Svalbard • Canada – Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels, F-35 •Denmark – NThiKdRNavy: Thesis; Knud Ramussen; FlfiklFlyvefisken classes Exercises • RiRussia – 8-9,000 troops 09; 2 Delta’s IV 09; 16 Bomber Patrols 2010; 12 naval operations 2010 • United States – Northern Edge – 1993-1/; 8 -10, 000 troops •Norway – CldRCold Response -2006-2010; 7-9, 000 troops – 2010 in Norway and Sweden • CdCanada – Op Nanook 2002-2011 – 750 troops • Finl and/S we den – Loyal Arrow 2009 3000 troops Russia Renewed Russian Strengths (?) • 1990s – Period of Red uction – AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning • 2000s – Renewal • 6 SSBN 995 Borey – 1 built; 3 building • 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney – 1 built; 2 building Yury Dolgoruky • EiChllEconomic Challenges • Putin’s Control Resumption of Russian TU -95 (Bear) Arctic Flights, August 18, 2007 • If US/EU position on Northwest Passage is correct then these aircraft have the right of over-flight US Arctic Interests • National Security Presidential Directive -Arctic Region Policy (January 9, 2009) • “The United States has broad and fundamental national security interests in the Arctic region and is prepared to operat e eith er idindepen den tly or in conjunction with other states to safe-guard these interests” – missile defence and early warning; – deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift, strategic deterrence , maritime presence , and maritime security operations; – ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight. • But will the US have political will/economic capabilities to be an Arctic Power? US Arctic Forces • Submarine Forces: • US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class • Cooperation with UK • ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN • ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina • Miss ile D eve lopment Missile Defence – Ft. Greely ICEX 2011 HMS Tireless 2007 after accident Alaska Aerospace Defence • 186 F-22 to be built – 36 are being deployed to Alaska • 20% o f tota l arsena l • Ft. Greeley - ABM Norway Norwegian Arctic Focus • The High North is the most important priority area of the Norwegian Defence- Norwegian Minister of Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen – April 2008 • 5 New Ice-Capable Frigates – Very capable • Helicopters stationed at northern base of BdfBardufoss • Purchase 48 F-35s November 2008 New Norwegian Maritime Forces • Fridtjof Nansen class • 5 built in Spanish Yards • Aegis system • Coast Guard armed Roald Amundsen Svalbard- Norwegian Coast Guard Finland/Sweden • Loyal Arrow – June 2009 • 200 aircraft; 2000 troops; 50 vessels • Finland developing closer links with NATO HMS AkRArk Royal in Swedish waters Swedish/Baltic Response to French Sales to Russia • Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia , Lithuania plus Finland, Sweden • Swedish FM - Submarines Mistral China •Snow Dragon was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk -1st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999 -2nd Arctilic Voyage: July-Sept 2003 -3rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008 •Polar Research Institute of China New Chinese Icebreaker French Arctic Deployments • Annual French Arctic submarine missions • 27th mountain infantry brigade – Arctic Operations • Airforce operations in Sweden , Finland , Norway • All surf ace naval uni ts must carry out A rcti c deployment – Ministry of Defence June 22, 2010 What is Canada doing? • New Military O perati ons si nce 2002 • 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels • Nanisivik Refueling Facility • Resolute Bay Training Facility • Increased Rangers Patrols -Number 58 to 61 -Training and Equipment • Northern Watch • Throne Speech Oct 2007 – Northern Strategy ( Sovereig nty /Securit y) Canadian Actions (cont.) • Feb 2008 B udget – $720 Million Icebreaker • June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper) - Focus on Arctic Security • Northern Strategy summer 2009 - Four pillars • Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel General Arrangements – Upper Deck 15 Source: Canadian Navy B Canadian Northern Exercises • Resumed in 2002 – Operation Narwhal • Hudson Sentinel – 2 005 Hudson Bay • Operation Nanook – Eastern Arctic – 750 troops an d OGD • Operation Nunakput –Western Arctic • Operation Nunalivut – Ranger Patrol The Emerging Arctic Security Regime • Circumpolar states have called for cooperation – What will be the new international governance regime? • Circumpolar states are building up their combat capable force for the Arctic – New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable – New Policies – Unilateral “concern” – New Training The Future for Canada -US The Need for Cooperation • Need to resolve ongoing diplomatic disputes –NWP – Beaufort Sea • Opportunity to develop further develop cooperation – Chairpersonship of Arctic Council – Operation Nanook – New Icebreakers? • Need to avoid pointless differences – Fishi ng Morator ium.