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Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21St Century: the Regional Agenda and the Global Role

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Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21St Century: the Regional Agenda and the Global Role Atlantic Council 11th Floor, 1101 15th Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20005 Address Services Requested Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21st Century: The Regional Agenda and the Global Role The Atlantic Council is a non partisan organization that promotes constructive US leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the global challenges of the 21st century. 1101 15th St. NW • 11th Floor • Washington, DC 20005 • 202-463-7226 • acus.org Edited by Robert Nurick and Magnus Nordenman The Atlantic Council’s Board of Directors The Atlantic Council promotes constructive US leadership and engagement in international affairs based on CHAIRMAN *Ralph D. Crosby, Jr. Philip Lader John S. Tanner the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting the international challenges of the 21st century. The Council embodies a *Chuck Hagel Thomas M. Culligan Muslim Lakhani Peter J. Tanous Gregory R. Dahlberg David Levy Paul Twomey nonpartisan network of leaders who aim to bring ideas to power and to give power to ideas by: CHAIRMAN, Brian D. Dailey Henrik Liljegren Henry G. Ulrich, III INTERNATIONAL 7 stimulating dialogue and discussion about critical international issues with a view to enriching public debate and ADVISORY BOARD *Paula Dobriansky *Jan M. Lodal Enzo Viscusi Markus Dohle George Lund Charles F. Wald promoting consensus on appropriate responses in the Administration, the Congress, the corporate and nonprofit sectors, Brent Scowcroft Lacey Neuhaus Dorn Izzat Majeed Jay Walker and the media in the United States and among leaders in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas; PRESIDENT AND CEO Conrado Dornier Wendy W. Makins Michael Walsh *Frederick Kempe Eric S. Edelman William E. Mayer Mark R. Warner 7 conducting educational and exchange programs for successor generations of US leaders so that they will come to value Thomas J. Edelman Barry R. McCaffrey J. Robinson West CHAIRMAN EMERITUS US international engagement and have the knowledge and understanding necessary to develop effective policies. Thomas J. Egan, Jr. Mark McLaughlin John C. Whitehead *Henry E. Catto Stuart E. Eizenstat Eric D.K. Melby David A. Wilson Through its diverse networks, the Council builds broad constituencies to support constructive US leadership and policies. VICE CHAIRS Dan-Åke Enstedt Rich Merski Maciej Witucki Its program offices publish informational analyses, convene conferences among current and/or future leaders, and contribute *Richard Edelman Julie Finley Franklin C. Miller R. James Woolsey *Brian C. McK. Henderson Lawrence P. Fisher, II *Judith A. Miller Dov S. Zakheim to the public debate in order to integrate the views of knowledgeable individuals from a wide variety of backgrounds, interests, *Richard L. Lawson Barbara Hackman Franklin Alexander V. Mirtchev Anthony C. Zinni and experiences. *Virginia A. Mulberger *Chas W. Freeman Obie Moore HONORARY DIRECTORS *W. DeVier Pierson Jacques S. Gansler *George E. Moose David C. Acheson The Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Initiative on Nordic-Baltic Security, a year-long effort supported by Sweden’s Ministry *Robert Gelbard Georgette Mosbacher TREASURERS Madeleine K. Albright for Foreign Affairs, aims to raise awareness in Washington on Nordic-Baltic security issues, provide a forum for informed Richard L. Gelfond Sean O’Keefe *Ronald M. Freeman James A. Baker, III discussion and debate on the region and its role in the world, and develop policy proposals on how greater regional *Edmund P. Giambastiani, Jr. Hilda Ochoa-Brillembourg *John D. Macomber Harold Brown *Sherri W. Goodman Philip A. Odeen cooperation can better address key foreign policy and security challenges. To achieve this, the initiative has included strategy Frank C. Carlucci, III SECRETARY John A. Gordon Ahmet Oren sessions with policymakers and senior leaders from the Nordic-Baltic region and the United States, expert roundtables on Jack N. Merritt *Walter B. Slocombe *C. Boyden Gray Ana Palacio Colin L. Powell key issues, collaboration with the intergovernmental enhanced Partnership in Northern Europe (e-PINE) bringing US officials *Stephen J. Hadley Torkel L. Patterson Condoleezza Rice DIRECTORS Mikael Hagström *Thomas R. Pickering together with those from the eight Nordic and Baltic countries, as well as written products by some of the leading analysts and Edward L. Rowny *Robert J. Abernethy Ian Hague *Andrew Prozes experts from the region and the United States. James R. Schlesinger Timothy D. Adams Harry Harding Arnold L. Punaro George P. Shultz Carol C. Adelman Rita E. Hauser Kirk A. Radke John Warner Herbert M. Allison, Jr. Annette Heuser Joseph W. Ralston William H. Webster Michael A. Almond Marten H.A. van Heuven Norman W. Ray *Michael Ansari *Mary L. Howell Teresa M. Ressel LIFETIME DIRECTORS Richard L. Armitage Benjamin Huberman Joseph E. Robert, Jr. Lucy Wilson Benson Adrienne Arsht Linda Hudson Jeffrey A. Rosen Daniel J. Callahan, III *David D. Aufhauser *Robert E. Hunter Charles O. Rossotti Kenneth W. Dam Ziad Baba Robert L. Hutchings Stanley Roth Stanley Ebner Ralph Bahna Wolfgang Ischinger Michael L. Ryan Carlton W. Fulford, Jr. Donald K. Bandler Robert Jeffrey Marjorie M. Scardino Geraldine S. Kunstadter Lisa B. Barry *A. Elizabeth Jones William O. Schmieder James P. McCarthy *Thomas L. Blair *James L. Jones, Jr. John P. Schmitz Steven Muller Susan M. Blaustein George A. Joulwan Jill A. Schuker William J. Perry Julia Chang Bloch Stephen R. Kappes Kiron K. Skinner Stanley R. Resor Dan W. Burns Francis J. Kelly Anne-Marie Slaughter William Y. Smith R. Nicholas Burns L. Kevin Kelly Alan Spence Helmut Sonnenfeldt *Richard R. Burt Zalmay Khalilzad John M. Spratt, Jr. Ronald P. Verdicchio Michael Calvey Robert M. Kimmitt Richard J.A. Steele Carl E. Vuono Daniel W. Christman James V. Kimsey Philip Stephenson Togo D. West, Jr. Wesley K. Clark *Roger Kirk *Paula Stern John Craddock Henry A. Kissinger John Studzinski * Members of the Executive Committee List as of August 16, 2011 Tom Craren Franklin D. Kramer William H. Taft, IV Nordic-Baltic Security in the 21ST Century: The Regional Agenda and the Global Role Edited by Robert Nurick Senior Fellow Atlantic Council Program on International Security Magnus Nordenman Associate Director Atlantic Council Program on International Security © September, 2011 Table of Contents Foreword . 1 “Loose Ends and their Virtues”: Or, a conceptual non-framework for Nordic-Baltic security cooperation . 3 Sweden, Finland and NATO: Security partners and security producers . 6 Sweden and Stability in the Baltic Sea Region. 12 Nordic-Baltic Security: How relevant is NATO?. 16 Baltic Security: Why the United States (still) cares . 22 The Challenge of US-Baltic Relations: Some lessons from history . 27 Baltic Energy Markets: The Case of electricity . 30 Energy and Regional Cooperation: Towards the Baltic Energy Rim? . 35 Economics and Trade Around the Baltic Rim: Does Russia have a strategy? . 41 Russian Policies toward the Nordic-Baltic Region. 47 Nordic-Baltic Cooperation in Civil Security and Emergency Management: Doing what comes naturally? . 52 Towards a common strategy for the Arctic: The Nordic countries can lead the way . 58 Baltic-Nordic-US Cooperation as a Vehicle for Democratic Change . 63 The Nordic-Baltic Region as a Global Partner of the United States. 67 Foreword he Nordic-Baltic region has undergone a remarkable are the result of the deliberations of the Atlantic Council’s transformation over the last twenty years, from a year-long Transatlantic Initiative on Nordic-Baltic Security, Tregion of potential competition and instability in the which is generously supported by Sweden’s Ministry for aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union to a place Foreign Affairs. The initiative aims to raise awareness in of robust stability, deep Euro-Atlantic integration, and Washington on Nordic-Baltic security issues, provide a economic dynamism. This transformation was by no means forum for informed discussion and debate on the region and preordained; it was the result of skillful execution of policy its role in the world, and develop policy proposals on how in Washington, t he Nordic-Baltic countries, and beyond. greater regional cooperation can better address key foreign Today, the accomplishments of the Nordic-Baltic region policy and security challenges. To achieve this, the initiative may represent the epitome of the US objective of a Europe has included strategy sessions with policymakers and whole, free, and at peace. senior leaders from the Nordic-Baltic region and the United States, expert roundtables on key issues, collaboration with Over the last twenty years, the United States joined with its the intergovernmental enhanced Partnership in Northern Nordic partners to support the restoration of independence Europe (e-PINE) bringing US offi cials together with those of the Baltic states, secure their sovereignty, and support from the eight Nordic and Baltic countries, as well as written their successful efforts to join NATO and the EU. As we look products by some of the leading analysts and experts from toward the next twenty years, increasing regional integration the region and the United States. and cooperation offers the prospect of the region playing a much larger role in transatlantic and global security. The The Council intensifi ed its focus on the Nordic-Baltic region countries of the region are already signifi cant contributors over the past two years as a result of hosting numerous to NATO and EU missions, ranging from Afghanistan to the Nordic and Baltic senior offi cials, including presidents, Horn of Africa, and Sweden and Finland are today close prime ministers, foreign and defense ministers, and chiefs NATO partners as well as active players in the formulation of defense. These strategy sessions underscored to the of the EU’s external policies. With deepening regional Washington policy community that the Nordic-Baltic region cooperation on defense, security, and foreign policy, the was cooperating on an increasing array of issues—indeed, Nordic-Baltic region is poised to assume more responsibility it was increasingly acting as a region.
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