2 An Unlikely Bromance: Trump, Duterte and the Future of the Philippine-U.S. Alliance

| RICHARD JAVAD HEYDARIAN

The Welcomes Trump’s you live long!) and, half-jokingly, reassured Presidency Obama’s successor that he wished not to “fight [with America anymore] because With few exceptions, the unlikely electoral Trump is there.”1 There were at least three victory of came as an reasons that made Duterte optimistic unpleasant shock to many capitals across about his relations with post-Obama the world. Most countries, including America. key allies, such as , expected a comfortable victory for the Democratic First of all, he felt a semblance of candidate, Hillary Clinton -- a well-known ideological affinity and temperamental political entity to the global elite and rapport with his populist American broader policy community. The Philippines, counterpart, who launched an electoral America’s oldest ally in Asia, was among the and political insurgency against the liberal few nations, in addition to Israel, Russia and establishment in America, which has India, where the news of Trump’s victory been highly critical of Duterte and his elicited a cautiously optimistic response human rights record. In particular, Duterte from the political leadership, specifically expected the Trump administration to under the controversial president Rodrigo take a softer and more pragmatic stance Duterte, previously dubbed by Western on democracy and human rights issues. media as the “Trump of the East.” Shortly After all, as Trump said in his inauguration, after Trump’s victory, the Filipino leader, “We do not seek to impose our way of who back in September 2016, made the life on anyone, but rather to let it shine unprecedented move of cussing at then as an example for everyone to follow.” American President and He made it clear that America “will seek the country’s ambassador to , Philip friendship and goodwill with the nations Goldberg, immediately struck a different of the world -- but we do so with the tone upon hearing the surprising outcome understanding that it is the right of all of the American elections. He expressed, in an unusually cordial tone, his best 1 Dharel Placido, “Duterte to Trump: Mabuhay ka!,” ABS-CBN News, 9 November 2016, http:// wishes to the newly elected American news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/09/16/duterte-to- president, exclaiming “Mabuhay Ka” (May trump-mabuhay-ka

ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 31 nations to put their own interests first.”2 After all, one of Duterte’s main strategic And soon the new American government concerns, and impetus for normalizing put flesh on its rhetorical sea change. The ties with China, was the perceived lack subsequent decision by Trump’s Secretary in American commitment, specifically of State, Rex Tillerson, a former oil giant under the Obama administration, to fully executive with perceived friendly ties with counter Chinese maritime assertiveness. the Kremlin, to skip for the first time in Throughout his election campaign, and history annual human rights briefing at the well into his term in office, Duterte made State Department further reinforced Trump it clear that he didn’t trust the Americans administration’s value-neutral foreign to come to the Philippines’ rescue if there were to be a conflict over disputed land policy streak. Specifically, Trump’s advisers features and resources with China. After called for stronger ties with estranged all, the Obama administration refused to authoritarian allies, such as Thailand and deploy military assets to and declare the the Philippines, in hopes of pushing back Scarborough Shoal as part of its treaty against China’s rising influence in Asia.3 obligations to the Southeast Asian country, when Beijing moved ahead with wresting Secondly, Manila was encouraged control of the land feature in mid-2012 after by the possibility that under the new a month-long naval standoff with Manila. administration, the superpower would take a more Reaganesque “peace through Moreover, there were hopes of smoother strength” approach to China, thus exerting and more personalized interaction with the less pressure on smaller neighbors such new American administration. In particular, as the Philippines to take on the Asian Duterte hoped to leverage longstanding juggernaut on their own. For Duterte, it business ties between his special envoy was best for the Philippines to stay out of to Washington, businessman Jose the conflict, maintain friendly ties with both Antonio, who owns the Trump Tower superpowers, and, accordingly, outsource in Manila, and the Trump family to build the constrainment of Beijing’s revanchist direct communication channels with the policies in adjacent waters to Washington.4 increasingly parochial, family-centric and businessmen-heavy White House. After all, from China to Argentina and Turkey, 2 See the Inaugural Address, 2017, https:// www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/ various governments sought better ties the-inaugural-address/ with America through precisely these 3 Laura Koran, “Tillerson skips release of annual long-term business ties between Trump human rights report,“ CNN International, 3 March and regime-friendly businessmen5. The 2017, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/03/politics/ combination of these factors provided a rex-tillerson-state-department-human-rights- strong foundation for a diplomatic reset report/index.html 4 Mark Barabak, “Trump channels Reagan, promising ‘peace through strength’,” 5 Richard Paddock, “Trump Business Partner Is Times, 6 December 2016, http://www.latimes. Philippines’ New Trade Envoy to U.S.,” The New com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide- York Times, 9 November 2016, https://www. updates-trump-channels-reagan-promising- nytimes.com/2016/11/10/world/asia/donald- peace-1481076359-htmlstory.html trump-philippines-jose-antonio.html

32 ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 between the two allies. There were also months. America proved a crucial source other encouraging elements in place. of assistance, providing state-of-the-art surveillance and intelligence support, Rebooting a Frayed Alliance deploying Special Forces to train the Philippine military in urban warfare, and The appointment in November 2016, transferred huge cache of weaponries under Obama's presidency, of a new to their Filipino counterparts. When the American Ambassador to the Philippines, five-month-long siege ended, the Duterte Sun Kim, a seasoned Asian-born administration specifically thanked diplomat who extensively dealt with America, among other key allies, for the North Korean regime, provided an providing crucial assistance throughout additional anchor for the improvement the campaign.7 of bilateral ties. Over the months, the American ambassador patiently rebuilt While deciding to nix several joint war frayed bilateral ties, avoiding any direct games (i.e., Philippine Amphibious verbal tussle with the president, while Landing Exercise [PHIBLEX] and the nudging the two countries towards Cooperation Afloat Readiness and cooperation in areas of shared interest, Training [CARAT]) in the South China particularly defense interest.6 Shortly after Sea in order to improve ties with China, Trump’s inauguration, Duterte cleared Duterte approved the bulk of bilateral the implementation of the Enhanced exercises between the Philippines and Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the U.S., including the annual Balikatan an upgraded defense cooperation (should-to-shoulder) exercises in May arrangement that was negotiated by the 2 0 1 7. 8 Observers largely interpreted this previous Benigno Aquino administration. as a sign that the Filipino president was Under the EDCA, the Philippines is committed to maintaining the bedrock expected to grant American defense of bilateral security relations, despite his forces permission to upgrade and enjoy ongoing rapprochement with Beijing, expanded rotational access to key bases which offered large-scale investment across the country. He also reiterated deals as well as potential compromise the importance of continued bilateral in the disputed South China Sea to the cooperation in the realms of counter- terrorism, humanitarian assistance and 7 disaster relief. The cooperation between Frances Mangosing, “Lorenzana thanks partner countries for help in Marawi the two allies in counter-terrorism in siege,“Philippine Daily Inquirer. 23 October 2017, particular proved crucial, especially when, http://globalnation.inquirer.net/161038/ in late May 2017, Islamic State (IS)-linked philippine-news-updates-marawi-siege- elements laid a brutal siege on the marawi-liberation-maute-group-islamic-state- delfin-lorenzana-us-china-indonesia-australia- Philippines’ largest Muslim-majority city, malaysia-brunei-singapore#ixzz5BSxwOefd Marawi, which extended over several 8 Carmela Fonbuena, “1st PH-US Balikatan exercises under Duterte open,” . 6 Partly based on interactions with the American com, 8 May 2017, https://www.rappler.com/ ambassador to Manila Sung Kim during a private nation/169168-balikatan-duterte-opening- meeting in mid-2017. philippines

ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 33 Filipino leader. After all, Duterte had to efforts to improve relations with China also accommodate the America-leaning and Russia. On those fronts, nothing Philippine defense establishment. “The has actually changed. They are still defense establishment, the military, never improving far faster and better than really wavered in their desire for their [Manila’s relations] with the U.S.,” argued continuing support, partnership, alliance Jay Batongbacal, a leading maritime law with the ,” observed9 Dindo expert in the Philippines. Manhit, president of the Stratbase ADR Institute, a Manila think tank. Filipino experts tend to agree that under Duterte’s chairmanship, the ASEAN The restoration of the Philippine-U.S. ties failed to stand up to China’s massive culminated in the Trump-Duterte meeting reclamation and militarization activities in November 2017 on the sidelines of in the South China Sea. Trump’s visit to the Association of Southeast Asian the summit failed to contribute any major Nations (ASEAN) summit in Manila. The change to ASEAN’s direction under the two leaders discussed counter-terrorism Philippines’ chairmanship. The regional cooperation, and a potential bilateral trade body’s decision to push for a Code of agreement10, while downplaying areas Conduct (COC) -- rather than support the of conflict, particularly on human rights Philippines’ 2016 arbitration award ruling and democracy issues. Nonetheless, at The Hague, or directly criticizing China’s leading Filipino observers have remained actions in their joint statements -- is seen doubtful as to whether the Duterte-Trump merely as a pointless diplomatic nicety bromance has had a significant impact without any real impact on the ground. on Duterte’s foreign policy particularly towards China. At best, it may have In exchange for soft-pedaling on the South avoided further hemorrhage in bilateral China Sea, Duterte expects economic relations, but failed to restore aspects of benefits from Beijing. “China now sees the relationship that were downgraded the Philippines as a welcome partner in its under Duterte. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has The Philippine-China-U.S. Strategic also come around to signing with ASEAN a Triangle Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, although at best that will be a protracted “I don’t see Trump’s visit [to Manila] process, and at worst, an exercise in as having a substantial impact on Duterte’s futility,” Baviera argues.11 Moreover, Duterte’s China policy eased tensions with other Southeast Asian countries, which 9 Michael Sullivan, “Trump And Duterte Could Reset The Shaky U.S.-Philippine Alliance,” disagreed with the Aquino administration’s National Public Radio, 11 November 2017, https://www.npr.org/2017/11/11/563475763/ 11 trump-to-meet-philippines-duterte Aileen Baviera, “Duterte’s China policy shift: strategy or serendipity?,” East Asia Forum, 10 Partly based on discussions with informed 13 August 2017, http://www.eastasiaforum. Filipino diplomats and American officials in late- org/2017/08/13/dutertes-china-policy-shift- 2017. strategy-or-serendipity/

34 ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 confrontational policy towards China, partnership that were decoupled from including the decision to take China to the South China Sea disputes, and international court over the South China significantly reduced verbal tussles and Sea disputes. undiplomatic exchanges that animated Duterte’s exchanges with the Obama Experts argue that despite maintaining administration. Nonetheless, the the EDCA and other defense agreements Philippines has continued its strategic with America, including the 1951 Mutual tilt towards China, while constraining the Defense Treaty (MDT) and the 1997 Visiting ability of the U.S. to leverage its alliance Forces Agreement (VFA), Duterte has with the Philippines to project power in inflicted significant damage on bilateral the region, whether through large-scale relations. The clear winner has been China, war games (e.g., PHIBLEX), access to which has enjoyed a de facto strategic strategically-positioned Philippine bases impunity in adjacent waters. “Unlike in the proximity of disputed waters previous Balikatan that involved massive (i.e., Bautista Air Base), and/or usage of combat drills directed at a hypothetical Philippine ports for conducting freedom threat emanating from the South China Sea, of navigation operations (FONOPs) in [latest] exercises focused on humanitarian, the South China Sea. The Philippine- cybersecurity and counter-terrorism U.S. alliance survives, but in a highly exercises,” observed Renato De Castro, an diminished form. expert on Philippine foreign policy at De La Salle University. “Duterte’s focus on non- As of this writing, and based on traditional security has essentially rendered conversations with officials in the U.S. the alliance useless in constraining and State Department and the Philippine deterring Chinese maritime expansion into Department of Foreign Affairs14, there are the South China Sea.”12 no indications that Duterte has plans to visit the White House anytime soon. This The overall verdict among leading experts is unprecedented in Philippine history, on the Philippine-U.S. alliance is that since almost all Filipino presidents had the Trump administration managed to the United States among their first prevent a further deterioration in bilateral foreign trips, visiting the Philippines’ relations, expand cooperation in counter- century-old ally on multiple occasions terrorism13 and other areas of defense during their tenure. Despite his robust and cordial personal bond with his American counterpart, Duterte seems uninterested 12 Renato De Castro, “Beijing gone from in fully reviving or deepening bilateral foe to friend in Manila,” East Asia Forum. 25 January 2018 ; http://www.eastasiaforum. strategic ties with Washington. org/2018/01/25/beijing-gone-from-foe-to-friend- in-manila/ 13 Partly based on exchanges with former US 14 Based on exchanges with Philippine Pacific Command Admiral Harry Harris on the Ambassador to U.S. Jose Manuel Romualdez sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore, and State Department officials in late March, in June 2017. 2018, in Washington D.C.

ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 35 Despite his good relations with the Under Duterte, a century-old alliance Australian government, Duterte also with America is no longer sacred or skipped the Australia-ASEAN Summit in special, while China has emerged as an Sydney in mid-March, another indication unlikely ally. The Philippines’ dramatic of the Philippines’ still frosty relations strategic turnabout is a reflection of a with the West. In Duterte’s mind, he more profound shift in the Asian balance wants to deal with the West, but on his of power, with smaller Southeast Asian own terms. The Filipino president has countries serving as a key benchmark of shown zero tolerance for any criticism of the new pecking order. Yet, there is no his human rights record by any Western guarantee that Duterte will manage to government. For him, it’s important for continue his fast and furious pivot to China the Philippines to lessen its dependence if the latter continues to press its claims on traditional Western allies by reaching against the Philippines’ in the South China out to alternative pillars of power in the Sea. Ultimately, if there is anything that is region. In particular, he seems interested constant about the Philippines’ relations in further deepening bilateral relations vis-à-vis China, these are the twin realities with China, which has, in a matter of of unpredictability and discontinuity over months, transformed from a rival to a the course of time. Meanwhile, America neighbor and, increasingly, a preeminent has managed to maintain relatively strong partner for national development. China relations with its former Asian colony has also emerged as a key strategic through two world wars, the long Cold patron, which has provided support War, the Global War on Terror, and the for Duterte against the international many geopolitical vicissitudes of the new community’s criticism of his human century. rights record. Beijing, for instance, has openly supported Duterte’s controversial war on drugs as well as his decision to end the Philippines’ ratification of the Rome Statute, effectively ending the Southeast Asian country’s membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC). As a sign of blossoming bilateral relations, Duterte will be visiting China, for the third time during his presidency, in early April for the Boao Forum in Hainan, China’s version of the World Economic Forum.15

15 Confirmed, based on exchanges between the author and Philippine Ambassador to China Jose Santiago Sta. Romana on April 1.

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