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Asia Trends 3 Article 2 2 An Unlikely Bromance: Trump, Duterte and the Future of the Philippine-U.S. Alliance | RICHARD JAVAD HEYDARIAN The Philippines Welcomes Trump’s you live long!) and, half-jokingly, reassured Presidency Obama’s successor that he wished not to “fight [with America anymore] because With few exceptions, the unlikely electoral Trump is there.”1 There were at least three victory of Donald Trump came as an reasons that made Duterte optimistic unpleasant shock to many capitals across about his relations with post-Obama the world. Most countries, including America. key allies, such as Japan, expected a comfortable victory for the Democratic First of all, he felt a semblance of candidate, Hillary Clinton -- a well-known ideological affinity and temperamental political entity to the global elite and rapport with his populist American broader policy community. The Philippines, counterpart, who launched an electoral America’s oldest ally in Asia, was among the and political insurgency against the liberal few nations, in addition to Israel, Russia and establishment in America, which has India, where the news of Trump’s victory been highly critical of Duterte and his elicited a cautiously optimistic response human rights record. In particular, Duterte from the political leadership, specifically expected the Trump administration to under the controversial president Rodrigo take a softer and more pragmatic stance Duterte, previously dubbed by Western on democracy and human rights issues. media as the “Trump of the East.” Shortly After all, as Trump said in his inauguration, after Trump’s victory, the Filipino leader, “We do not seek to impose our way of who back in September 2016, made the life on anyone, but rather to let it shine unprecedented move of cussing at then as an example for everyone to follow.” American President Barack Obama and He made it clear that America “will seek the country’s ambassador to Manila, Philip friendship and goodwill with the nations Goldberg, immediately struck a different of the world -- but we do so with the tone upon hearing the surprising outcome understanding that it is the right of all of the American elections. He expressed, in an unusually cordial tone, his best 1 Dharel Placido, “Duterte to Trump: Mabuhay ka!,” ABS-CBN News, 9 November 2016, http:// wishes to the newly elected American news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/09/16/duterte-to- president, exclaiming “Mabuhay Ka” (May trump-mabuhay-ka ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 31 nations to put their own interests first.”2 After all, one of Duterte’s main strategic And soon the new American government concerns, and impetus for normalizing put flesh on its rhetorical sea change. The ties with China, was the perceived lack subsequent decision by Trump’s Secretary in American commitment, specifically of State, Rex Tillerson, a former oil giant under the Obama administration, to fully executive with perceived friendly ties with counter Chinese maritime assertiveness. the Kremlin, to skip for the first time in Throughout his election campaign, and history annual human rights briefing at the well into his term in office, Duterte made State Department further reinforced Trump it clear that he didn’t trust the Americans administration’s value-neutral foreign to come to the Philippines’ rescue if there were to be a conflict over disputed land policy streak. Specifically, Trump’s advisers features and resources with China. After called for stronger ties with estranged all, the Obama administration refused to authoritarian allies, such as Thailand and deploy military assets to and declare the the Philippines, in hopes of pushing back Scarborough Shoal as part of its treaty against China’s rising influence in Asia.3 obligations to the Southeast Asian country, when Beijing moved ahead with wresting Secondly, Manila was encouraged control of the land feature in mid-2012 after by the possibility that under the new a month-long naval standoff with Manila. administration, the superpower would take a more Reaganesque “peace through Moreover, there were hopes of smoother strength” approach to China, thus exerting and more personalized interaction with the less pressure on smaller neighbors such new American administration. In particular, as the Philippines to take on the Asian Duterte hoped to leverage longstanding juggernaut on their own. For Duterte, it business ties between his special envoy was best for the Philippines to stay out of to Washington, businessman Jose the conflict, maintain friendly ties with both Antonio, who owns the Trump Tower superpowers, and, accordingly, outsource in Manila, and the Trump family to build the constrainment of Beijing’s revanchist direct communication channels with the policies in adjacent waters to Washington.4 increasingly parochial, family-centric and businessmen-heavy White House. After all, from China to Argentina and Turkey, 2 See the Inaugural Address, 2017, https:// www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/ various governments sought better ties the-inaugural-address/ with America through precisely these 3 Laura Koran, “Tillerson skips release of annual long-term business ties between Trump human rights report,“ CNN International, 3 March and regime-friendly businessmen5. The 2017, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/03/politics/ combination of these factors provided a rex-tillerson-state-department-human-rights- strong foundation for a diplomatic reset report/index.html 4 Mark Barabak, “Trump channels Reagan, promising ‘peace through strength’,” Los Angeles 5 Richard Paddock, “Trump Business Partner Is Times, 6 December 2016, http://www.latimes. Philippines’ New Trade Envoy to U.S.,” The New com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide- York Times, 9 November 2016, https://www. updates-trump-channels-reagan-promising- nytimes.com/2016/11/10/world/asia/donald- peace-1481076359-htmlstory.html trump-philippines-jose-antonio.html 32 ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 between the two allies. There were also months. America proved a crucial source other encouraging elements in place. of assistance, providing state-of-the-art surveillance and intelligence support, Rebooting a Frayed Alliance deploying Special Forces to train the Philippine military in urban warfare, and The appointment in November 2016, transferred huge cache of weaponries under Obama's presidency, of a new to their Filipino counterparts. When the American Ambassador to the Philippines, five-month-long siege ended, the Duterte Sun Kim, a seasoned Asian-born administration specifically thanked diplomat who extensively dealt with America, among other key allies, for the North Korean regime, provided an providing crucial assistance throughout additional anchor for the improvement the campaign.7 of bilateral ties. Over the months, the American ambassador patiently rebuilt While deciding to nix several joint war frayed bilateral ties, avoiding any direct games (i.e., Philippine Amphibious verbal tussle with the president, while Landing Exercise [PHIBLEX] and the nudging the two countries towards Cooperation Afloat Readiness and cooperation in areas of shared interest, Training [CARAT]) in the South China particularly defense interest.6 Shortly after Sea in order to improve ties with China, Trump’s inauguration, Duterte cleared Duterte approved the bulk of bilateral the implementation of the Enhanced exercises between the Philippines and Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the U.S., including the annual Balikatan an upgraded defense cooperation (should-to-shoulder) exercises in May arrangement that was negotiated by the 2 0 1 7. 8 Observers largely interpreted this previous Benigno Aquino administration. as a sign that the Filipino president was Under the EDCA, the Philippines is committed to maintaining the bedrock expected to grant American defense of bilateral security relations, despite his forces permission to upgrade and enjoy ongoing rapprochement with Beijing, expanded rotational access to key bases which offered large-scale investment across the country. He also reiterated deals as well as potential compromise the importance of continued bilateral in the disputed South China Sea to the cooperation in the realms of counter- terrorism, humanitarian assistance and 7 disaster relief. The cooperation between Frances Mangosing, “Lorenzana thanks partner countries for help in Marawi the two allies in counter-terrorism in siege,“Philippine Daily Inquirer. 23 October 2017, particular proved crucial, especially when, http://globalnation.inquirer.net/161038/ in late May 2017, Islamic State (IS)-linked philippine-news-updates-marawi-siege- elements laid a brutal siege on the marawi-liberation-maute-group-islamic-state- delfin-lorenzana-us-china-indonesia-australia- Philippines’ largest Muslim-majority city, malaysia-brunei-singapore#ixzz5BSxwOefd Marawi, which extended over several 8 Carmela Fonbuena, “1st PH-US Balikatan exercises under Duterte open,” Rappler. 6 Partly based on interactions with the American com, 8 May 2017, https://www.rappler.com/ ambassador to Manila Sung Kim during a private nation/169168-balikatan-duterte-opening- meeting in mid-2017. philippines ASIA TRENDS | SPRING 2018 33 Filipino leader. After all, Duterte had to efforts to improve relations with China also accommodate the America-leaning and Russia. On those fronts, nothing Philippine defense establishment. “The has actually changed. They are still defense establishment, the military, never improving far faster and better than really wavered in their desire for their [Manila’s relations] with the U.S.,” argued
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