Cults of Personality, Preference Falsification, and the Dictator's
Cults of personality, preference falsification, and the dictator's dilemma Charles Crabtreex, Holger L. Kerny, and David A. Siegelz Abstract: We provide a novel rational explanation for why cults of personality exist: they solve the dictator's adverse selection problem in assigning subordinates to roles within the regime. Participation in a cult of personality is psychologically costly whenever it involves preference falsification, with the costs varying across individuals. Importantly, low psychological costs of preference falsification are correlated with traits the dictator values, such as unscrupulousness and ruthlessness, which we collectively term disposition-based competence. Under a wide variety of circumstances, this correlation makes participation in cults of personality informative from the dictator's point of view, allowing him to hire loyal and competent subordinates for the most important regime positions. In contrast to earlier formal work, our model implies that dictators can use cults of personality to avoid the loyalty-competence trade-off when promoting subordinates. We thank Quintin Beazer, Jens Grosser, Timur Kuran, Andrew Little, Eddy Malesky, Melanie Manion, Arturas Rozenas, Rory Truex, Nils Weidmann, and participants at the 2017 MPSA Conference and the 2017 ESTA workshop at Konstanz University for their very helpful feedback. x PhD cand., Department of Political Science, University of Michigan. y Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Florida State University. z Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University. In 2001, Saparmurad Niyazov, who ruled Turkmenistan from 1985 to 2006, announced the publication of his first book. Called Ruhnama (The Book of the Soul), it contained answers to \all of life's questions" and became required reading in all schools, universities, and workplaces.
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