Sunshine in Korea

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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces. Sunshine in Korea The South Korean Debate over Policies Toward North Korea Norman D. Levin and Yong-Sup Han Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation R Center for Asia Pacific Policy The research described in this report was conducted in RAND’s National Security Research Division by the Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Levin, Norman D. Sunshine in Korea : the South Korean debate over policies toward North Korea / Norman D. Levin, Yong-Sup Han. p. cm. “MR-1555.” ISBN 0-8330-3321-2 (pbk.) 1. Korea (South)—Politics and government—1988– 2. Korea (South)—Foreign relations—Korea (North) 3. Korea (North)—Foreign relations—Korea (South) 4. Kim, Dae Jung, 1925– 5. Korean reunification question (1945– ) I. Han, Yong-Sup. II. Title. DS922.4635 .L48 2002 951.904'3—dc21 2002154385 Cover: Photograph of Mt.Wolchulsan Copyright: Korea National Tourism Organization RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Maritta Tapanainen © Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE This report examines the public South Korean debate over dealings with North Korea. The focus is on the period since February 1998, when Kim Dae Jung became president of South Korea, and on the major actors, interests, and goals influencing South Korean policies. The report seeks to better understand the sources of controversy over these policies and assess their likely future implications. Two previous reports provided interim findings. The first, entitled The South Korean Debate over Policies toward North Korea: Issues and Implications (MR-1555.0, RAND, 2002), focused on the content of the debate over South Korea’s new engagement policy—the so- called “sunshine” policy—toward North Korea. The second, entitled The South Korean Debate over Policies Toward North Korea: Internal Dynamics (MR-1555.0/1-CAPP, RAND, 2002), focused on the debate’s internal dynamics—the major actors involved in the debate and their roles in shaping its evolution. This final report updates and integrates the findings of the first two reports and assesses their implications. Findings are current as of October 2002. The report should be of interest to both government officials and specialists on Korea, as well as to general readers interested in Asia and contempo- rary foreign policy issues. This research project was conducted under the auspices of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP), which aims to improve public policy by providing decisionmakers and the public with rigorous, objective research on critical policy issues affecting Asia and U.S.- Asia relations. CAPP is part of RAND’s National Security Research iii iv Sunshine in Korea Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for a broad range of clients including the U.S. Department of Defense, the intel- ligence community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figure and Table .................................. vii Summary ....................................... ix Acknowledgments................................. xvii Chapter One INTRODUCTION .............................. 1 Chapter Two THE HISTORICAL SETTING ...................... 5 The Evolution of Engagement ..................... 5 The Emergence of Debate ........................ 13 Chapter Three THE SUNSHINE POLICY: PRINCIPLES AND MAIN ACTIVITIES.............................. 23 Chapter Four THE PUBLIC DEBATE: ISSUES AND UNDERLYING DIVISIONS ................................... 33 Central Issues ................................. 34 Substantive Components ....................... 34 Operational Characteristics ..................... 45 Motivating Assumptions ....................... 47 Specific Issues................................. 51 Core Components.............................. 54 v vi Sunshine in Korea Chapter Five INTERNAL DYNAMICS: THE ACTORS .............. 63 The Government............................... 63 The Parties ................................... 66 The Millennium Democratic Party (MDP)........... 67 The Grand National Party (GNP) ................. 68 The United Liberal Democrats (ULD) .............. 68 The Military .................................. 69 The Media.................................... 71 Chosun Ilbo................................. 72 Donga Ilbo.................................. 73 JoongAng Ilbo ............................... 74 Hankyoreh Sinmun ........................... 74 Civic Groups and Nongovernmental Organizations ..... 75 Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation (KCRC) .................................. 77 Citizen’s Coalition for Economic Justice (CCEJ) ...... 78 People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (PSPD)................................... 79 Anti-U.S. and Anti-U.S. Military Base NGOs ......... 80 Labor Groups................................ 81 National Congress of Freedom and Democracy (NCFD) .................................. 82 Korean Freedom League (KFL) ................... 82 Korean Veterans Association (KVA) ............... 83 The Private Sector .............................. 84 Public Opinion ................................ 85 Environmental Mapping: A Notional Matrix .......... 87 Chapter Six INTERNAL DYNAMICS: THE PROCESS .............. 89 Spring (February 1998 to January 2000) .............. 90 Summer (January 2000 to June 2000) ................ 95 Fall (June 2000 to January 2001) .................... 100 Winter (January 2001 to October 2002)............... 107 Chapter Seven CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS ............... 131 FIGURE 1. Notional Positions of Major Actors on Sunshine Policy .................................... 88 TABLE 1. Distribution of National Assembly Seats by Political Party..................................... 98 vii SUMMARY The debate in South Korea over the government’s engagement policy toward North Korea (the so-called “sunshine” policy) did not start with Pyongyang’s recent admission that it has been secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program in violation of multiple international commitments. But the evolution of the debate will be an important determinant of how the South Korean and broader international re- sponse to this latest North Korean challenge ultimately ends. This report provides a framework for viewing South Korean responses to this challenge. It examines the South Korean debate over policies toward the North, analyzes the sources of controversy, and assesses the debate’s implications for South Korea and the United States. The report finds that much of the public debate is a product of differ- ences among South Koreans over the changes Kim Dae Jung made in South Korea’s long existing policy after becoming president in 1998, rather than over the need for some kind of engagement with North Korea per se. While partisan politics are a component of the debate, at its core are some big questions: • What should be the aim of any effort to achieve greater association with North Korea—“reconciliation” on the basis of Korea being “one people” or “unification” by extending

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