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Military Transformation on the Korean Peninsula: Technology Versus Geography

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THE UNIVERSITY OF HULL Military Transformation on the Korean Peninsula: Technology Versus Geography Being a Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy At the University of Hull By Soon Ho Lee BA, Sungkyunkwan University, Republic of Korea, 2004 MA, The University of Birmingham, United Kingdom, 2005 MRes, King’s College London, United Kingdom, 2006 1 Acknowledgement I am the most grateful to my Supervisor Dr. David Lonsdale for his valuable academic advice and support during the long PhD journey. To reach this stage, I have had invaluable support from my family back in Korea and my dear wife Jin Heon. I would also like to thank my family for being so patient while I was researching. During this journey, I have obtained a precious jewel in my daughter, Da Hyeon. I will pray for you all my life. I would like to give special thanks to my late grandfather who gave me the greatest love, and taught me the importance of family. 2 Thesis Summary This thesis provides an explanation of one RMA issue: the effectiveness of contemporary military technology against tough geography, based upon case studies in the Korean peninsula. The originality of the thesis is that it will provide a sound insight for potential foes’ approach to the dominant US military power (superior technology and sustenance of war). The North Korean defence strategy – using their edge in geography and skill – tried to protect themselves from the dominant US power, but it may be impossible to deter or defeat them with technological superiority alone. This research also provides a valuable example, through Stephen Biddle’s technology and skill theory, which claims that, in the future of war, the skills of the unit (tactical readiness) are as important as the technology involved. By examining three case studies, the thesis aims to reveal that technological superiority alone cannot guarantee military success against the foe that possesses the geographic advantage and the capability to use its benefits. The first case study of the Imjin Wars will examine the significance of geography and capability to using the geographic edge in the Korean peninsula. The second case study of the Korean War will examine how technology alone failed to overcome the skilled and geographically advantageous defenders in modern warfare. Finally, by examining possible conflict scenarios of US-ROK alliance and North Korea, this research will seek to prove that contemporary military technology alone would not guarantee military success and deterrence against North Korea, which is both geographically advantaged and highly skilled. 3 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction Part 1 The US-ROK Technology-centred Military Strategy and Posture, and the North Korean Tactical Readiness, Focusing on Terrain and its use Chapter 2 The Military Transformation of US-ROK Alliance 2-1 Skill and Technology in Modern Warfare, and its Implications on Korean Peninsula Security 2-2 RMA 2-3 The US Military Transformation after 9/11 and its Impact upon the US- ROK Alliance Chapter 3 North Korean Geographic Edge and Tactical Preparedness 3-1 Geographic Dimension of War and the Traditional Korean Military Strategy – The Significance of Tactical Preparedness using the Characteristics of Korean Peninsula Topography 3-2 The Development of North Korean Military Strategy Part 2 Case Studies – Does Contemporary Military Technology Bring Ultimate Military Success against the Geographically Advantaged and Tactically Well- prepared North Koreans ? Chapter 4 Imjin Wars Introduction 4-1 The Japanese Invasion Plan 4-2 Japan’s Initial Successes and Joseon’s Defence Systems 4-3 Shock and the Gradual Strategic, and Tactical Transformation of the Joseon- Cholla Province Defence (occupation) Campaign 4 4-4 The Second Invasion and the Transformed Joseon Strategies and Tactics Conclusion Chapter 5 Technological and Geographic Dimensions of the Korean War Introduction 5-1 Outbreak of War and North Korea’s Initial Success 5-2 The US Engagement and the Naktong River Line Campaign 5-3 Chinese Engagement and the New Phase of War 5-4 Stalemate (Position Warfare) and Ceasefire Conclusion Chapter 6 The Future Prospect of Technology and Geography in the Korean Peninsula Conflict Introduction 6-1 The US Pre-emptive Strike Strategy and OPLAN 5027 6-2 North Korea and Deterrence 6-3 The US-ROK Stand-Off Precision Earth-penetrating Weapons and North Korean HDBTs Conclusion Chapter 7 Conclusion 5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACMs - Advanced Conventional Munitions ATG - Advanced Tactical Group AUP - Advanced Unitary Penetrator BCT - Brigade Combat Team C3 - Command, Control, and Communications C4I - Command, Control, Communication, Computer, and Intelligence CALM - Conventional Air Launched Missile CAS - Close Air Support CEC - Cooperative Engagement Capability CEP - Circular Error Probable CFC - Combined Force Command DMZ - Demilitarized Zone DOD - Department of Defence DOE - Department of Energy DPRK - Democratic People’s Republic of Korea EEZ - Exclusive Economic Zone EPW - Earth-penetrator weapon FAS - Federation of American Scientists FEAF - Far East Air Force FEBA - Forward Edge of Battle Area FECOM - Far East Command FMS - Foreign Military Sales FOFA - Follow-on-Forces Attack GBU - Guided Bomb Unit GPR - Global Posture Review HDBTs - Hard and Deeply Buried Targets IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM - Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles IMHC Institute for Military History Compilation ISAF - Israeli Air Force ISR - Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance 6 JASSM - Joint Air-to-Surface Stand-off Missile JCS - Joint Chiefs of Staff JSOW - Joint Standoff Weapon KIDA - Korea Institute for Defence Analysis KRIS - Korea Research Institute for Strategy KWP - Korean Worker’s Party MAD - Mutual Assured Destruction MAP - Military Assistance Program MD - Missile Defence MLRS - Multiple Launch Rocket System MND - Ministry of National Defence MOP - Massive Ordnance Penetrator MRC - Major Regional Conflict MTCR - Missile Technology Control Regime MTR - Military Technical Revolution NAS - National Academy of Sciences NEP - Nuclear Earth Penetrator NKPA - North Korean People’s Army NNSA - National Nuclear Security Administration NPR - Nuclear Posture Review NRDC - Natural Resource Defence Council OMG - Operational Manoeuvring Group PC - Pacific Command PDD - Presidential Decision Directive QDR - Quadrennial Defence Review PIP - Performance Improvement Plan PLA - People’s Liberation Army PRC - People’s Republic of China PVA - People’s Volunteer Army RDO - Rapid Decisive Operation RMA - Revolution in Military Affair ROK - Republic of Korea RSC - Reconnaissance-Strike Complex SBCT - Stryker Brigade Combat Team 7 SDB - Small-Diameter Bomb SLBM - Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles SLOC - Sea Lane of Communication SOS - System of Systems SSM - Surface to Surface Missile TACMS - Tactical Missile System UA - Unit of Action UNC - United Nations Command USAF - US Air Force USFK - United States Forces Korea USJFCOM - Joint Force Command US PACOM - United States Pacific Command WMD - Weapons of Mass Destruction 8 Chapter 1 Introduction The initial idea for this project came from the transformed military strategy that both the Koreans and the US implemented in response to the rapid change of the Korean peninsula’s security circumstance at the end of the Cold War. After the Cold War, North Korea had to acclimate itself to the less warm relationship with Russia1 and China. As a consequence, they suffered an economic crisis and major setbacks in their warfare capability, since they were not able to introduce new weaponry and train their forces properly for offensive purposes. On the other hand, even though ROK (Republic of Korea) suffered an economic crisis in 1997, it recovered quickly and enjoyed steady economic growth, which enabled it to produce more modernized and technologically advanced armed forces. Along with the economic growth that gave them a financial basis to improve their military forces, the ROK was prompted towards modernized and technology-centred armed forces due to their contemporary security circumstances. Firstly, ROK will recuperate war time operation command in 2015.2 Secondly, they have started to protect their national interest not only within the Korean peninsula but also along its outside. Under these circumstances, military authorities were urged to update independent and long-range operations capabilities. The ROK proposed two grand threats in the Defence White Paper of 2004. It suggested “the direct military threat” which was conventional weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), and front-line troop disposition of North Korea. In addition to the direct military threat, unspecified threats were added. Terrorism, 1 The Soviet Union and North Korea formed an alliance in July, 1961, which included The Mutual Military Aid clause but this treaty ceased in September, 1985 after the Cold War ended, allowing Russia and ROK to establish formal diplomatic relationship in 1990. 2 The ROK forces’ operation command was handed to the UNC (United Nation Command) during the Korean War (14th of July, 1950). Even though the peace time operation command recuperated in December, 1994, wartime command still belongs to the UNC. The significance of wartime command recuperation was not just restricted to the recovery of operation command independence. The ROK government will be required to improve their forces’ quality especially in the weaker areas to achieve independent operation. Even though
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