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Joint U.S. Korea Academic Studies 2012 2012 Joint ASIA AT A TIPPING POINT: KOREA, THE RISE OF CHINA, AND THE IMPACT OF LEADERSHIP TRANSITIONS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF: GILBERT ROZMAN, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY Polical Change in 2010-2012 and Regional Sociological Processes and Regional Community JOINT Cooperaon Centered on the Korean Peninsula Formaon Incorporang South Korea U. S. Leadership Changes and South Korea’s China Policy South Korean Naonal Identy Gaps with -K U.S.KOREA Jae Ho Chung China and Japan Gilbert Rozman or North Korean Polics and China ea Academic Studie Jack Pritchard and L. Gordon Flake Diverging Trajectories of Trust in Northeast Asia: ACADEMIC South Korea’s Security Relaons with Japan and China Japanese Polics, the Korean Peninsula, and China Leif-Eric Easley Kazuhiko Togo STUDIES A Cognive Approach to Ethnic Identy Chinese Polics and the Korean Peninsula Construcon in the Korean Enclave in Beijing ASIA AT A TIPPING POINT: Gilbert Rozman Sharon Yoon KOREA, THE RISE OF CHINA, AND THE IMPACT OF Security Challenges and the Changing TPP or ASEAN+3: Alternave Plans for Asian Balance on the Korean Peninsula Regionalism and Free Trade Pacts LEADERSHIP TRANSITIONS s The View from China The U.S. Approach to Regional Trade Agreements EDITORSINSCHIEF: Andrew Scobell Involving East Asia GILBERT ROZMAN Edward J. Lincoln The View from Russia Stephen Blank South Korea: Which Way Will It Go on Asian Integraon? Hyung-Gon Jeong V Japan’s Response to Nuclear North Korea ol. 23 Narushige Michishita Compeng Templates in Asia Pacific Economic Integraon Peter A. Petri The View from South Korea Taeho Kim Vol. 23 1800 K Street, NW Suite 1010 Washington, DC 20006 Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies 2012 Volume 23 Editor-in Chief: Gilbert Rozman, Princeton University KEI Editorial Board Editor-in-Chief: Gilbert Rozman, Princeton University KEI Editors: Abraham Kim, Nicholas Hamisevicz Contract Editor: Gimga Group Cover Design: Gimga Group The Korea Economic Institute is registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the Government of the Republic of Korea. This material is filed with the Department of Justice, where the required registration statement is available for public inspection. Registration does not indicate U.S. government approval of the contents of this document. KEI is not engaged in the practice of law, does not render legal services, and is not a lobbying organization. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. While this monograph is part of the overall program of the Korea Economic Institute endorsed by its Officers, Board of Directors, and Advisory Council, its contents do not necessarily reflect the views of individual members of the Board or of the Advisory Council. Copyright © 2012 Korea Economic Institute www.keia.org Printed in the United States of America. Contents KEI Board of Directors ...........................................................................................................................i KEI Advisory Council.............................................................................................................................ii Preface.................................................................................................................................................iv Political Change in 2010-2012 and Regional Cooperation Centered on the Korean Peninsula Introduction...........................................................................................................................................2 Leadership Changes and South Korea’s China Policy Jae Ho Chung.........................................................................................................................................5 North Korean Politics and China Jack Pritchard & L. Gordon Flake........................................................................................................19 Japanese Politics, the Korean Peninsula, and China Kazuhiko Togo......................................................................................................................................33 Chinese Politics and the Korean Peninsula Gilbert Rozman....................................................................................................................................49 Security Challenges and the Changing Balance on the Korean Peninsula Introduction........................................................................................................................................66 The View from China Andrew Scobell....................................................................................................................................69 The View from Russia Stephen Blank......................................................................................................................................83 Japan’s Response to Nuclear North Korea Narushige Michishita......................................................................................................................... 99 The View from South Korea Taeho Kim..........................................................................................................................................113 Sociological Processes and Regional Community Formation Incorporating South Korea Introduction......................................................................................................................................128 South Korean National Identity Gaps with China and Japan Gilbert Rozman..................................................................................................................................131 Diverging Trajectories of Trust in Northeast Asia: South Korea’s Security Relations with Japan and China Leif-Eric Easley ..................................................................................................................................149 A Cognitive Approach to Ethnic Identity Construction in the Korean Enclave in Beijing Sharon Yoon ......................................................................................................................................171 TPP or ASEAN+3: Alternative Plans for Asian Regionalism and Free Trade Pacts Introduction......................................................................................................................................186 The U.S. Approach to Regional Trade Agreements Involving East Asia Edward J. Lincoln...............................................................................................................................189 South Korea: Which Way Will It Go on Asian Integration? Hyung-Gon Jeong..............................................................................................................................207 Competing Templates in Asia Pacific Economic Integration Peter A. Petri......................................................................................................................................227 Contributors....................................................................................................................................248 About the Korea Economic Institute................................................................................................252 i | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies KEI Board of Directors Sukhan Kim, Esq. Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld Dr. Yoon-shik Park George Washington University Prof. David Steinberg Georgetown University Dr. Won-ho Kim Hankuk University for Foreign Studies Officers Amb. Charles L. Pritchard President Dr. Abraham Kim Vice President | ii KEI Advisory Council Chair: The Honorable Stephen W. Bosworth The Fletcher School at Tufts University Members: His Excellency Tae-sik Lee Mr. Bradley Babson Former Ambassador to the U.S. World Affairs Council of Maine Dr. Young-Sun Lee Dr. Claude Barfield Yonsei University American Enterprise Institute Dr. Wonhyuk Lim Dr. John Bennett Korea Development Institute Former KEI President Mr. Paul M. McGonagle Dr. Thomas F. Cargill Consultant University of Nevada, Reno The Honorable Mark C. Minton His Excellency Yoon-je Cho The Korea Society Sogang University Dr. G. Mustafa Mohatarem Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt General Motors Corporation American Enterprise Institute Dr. Chung-in Moon Mr. Robert Fallon Yonsei University Columbia Business School Dr. Hugh T. Patrick Mr. Gordon Flake Columbia University Maureen & Mike Mansfield Foundation The Honorable Ernest H. Preeg The Honorable Thomas C. Hubbard Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI The Korea Society/McLarty Associates Dr. Mitchell B. Reiss The Honorable James A. Kelly Washington College EAP Associates, Inc. Mr. Evans J.R. Revere Mr. Andrew B. Kim Albright Stonebridge Group Sit/Kim International Mr. Alan Romberg Mr. Spencer Kim Henry L. Stimson Center Pacific Century Institute Dr. Jeffrey R. Shafer Mr. Bruce Klingner Citigroup Heritage Foundation His Excellency Joun-yung Sun The Honorable James T. Laney Kyungnam University Emory University Mr. W. Robert Warne Dr. Kirk W. Larsen Former KEI President Brigham Young University Mr. Joseph A.B. Winder Winder International/ Former KEI President iii | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies | IV Preface For over twenty years, the Korea Economic Institute (KEI) invited leading Korea and Asia scholars and experts from around the world for its annual academic symposium. Each year, KEI partnered with a leading university in the United States and organized a three-day conference covering Korea’s economy, politics,
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