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Implications of the National Intelligence Estimate Regarding Al Qaeda

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Implications of the National Intelligence Estimate Regarding Al Qaeda i [H.A.S.C. No. 110–77] IMPLICATIONS OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE REGARDING AL QAEDA JOINT HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES MEETING JOINTLY WITH PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION HEARING HELD JULY 25, 2007 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 45–513 WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS IKE SKELTON, Missouri, Chairman JOHN SPRATT, South Carolina DUNCAN HUNTER, California SOLOMON P. ORTIZ, Texas JIM SAXTON, New Jersey GENE TAYLOR, Mississippi JOHN M. MCHUGH, New York NEIL ABERCROMBIE, Hawaii TERRY EVERETT, Alabama SILVESTRE REYES, Texas ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland VIC SNYDER, Arkansas HOWARD P. ‘‘BUCK’’ MCKEON, California ADAM SMITH, Washington MAC THORNBERRY, Texas LORETTA SANCHEZ, California WALTER B. JONES, North Carolina MIKE MCINTYRE, North Carolina ROBIN HAYES, North Carolina ELLEN O. TAUSCHER, California JO ANN DAVIS, Virginia ROBERT A. BRADY, Pennsylvania W. TODD AKIN, Missouri ROBERT ANDREWS, New Jersey J. RANDY FORBES, Virginia SUSAN A. DAVIS, California JEFF MILLER, Florida RICK LARSEN, Washington JOE WILSON, South Carolina JIM COOPER, Tennessee FRANK A. LOBIONDO, New Jersey JIM MARSHALL, Georgia TOM COLE, Oklahoma MADELEINE Z. BORDALLO, Guam ROB BISHOP, Utah MARK E. UDALL, Colorado MICHAEL TURNER, Ohio DAN BOREN, Oklahoma JOHN KLINE, Minnesota BRAD ELLSWORTH, Indiana CANDICE S. MILLER, Michigan NANCY BOYDA, Kansas PHIL GINGREY, Georgia PATRICK J. MURPHY, Pennsylvania MIKE ROGERS, Alabama HANK JOHNSON, Georgia TRENT FRANKS, Arizona CAROL SHEA-PORTER, New Hampshire BILL SHUSTER, Pennsylvania JOE COURTNEY, Connecticut THELMA DRAKE, Virginia DAVID LOEBSACK, Iowa CATHY MCMORRIS RODGERS, Washington KIRSTEN E. GILLIBRAND, New York K. MICHAEL CONAWAY, Texas JOE SESTAK, Pennsylvania GEOFF DAVIS, Kentucky GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland KENDRICK B. MEEK, Florida KATHY CASTOR, Florida ERIN C. CONATON, Staff Director BILL NATTER, Professional Staff Member ALEX KUGAJEVSKY, Professional Staff Member ANDREW TABLER, Staff Assistant (II) HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE SILVESTRE REYES, Texas, Chairman ALCEE L. HASTINGS, Florida PETER HOEKSTRA, Michigan LEONARD L. BOSWELL, Iowa TERRY EVERETT, Alabama ROBERT E. ‘‘BUD’’ CRAMER, JR., Alabama HEATHER WILSON, New Mexico ANNA G. ESHOO, California MAC THORNBERRY, Texas RUSH D. HOLT, New Jersey JOHN M. MCHUGH, New York C.A. DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER, Maryland TODD TIAHRT, Kansas JOHN F. TIERNEY, Massachusetts MIKE ROGERS, Michigan MIKE THOMPSON, California DARRELL E. ISSA, California JANICE D. SCHAKOWSKY, Illinois JAMES R. LANGEVIN, Rhode Island PATRICK J. MURPHY, Pennsylvania NANCY PELOSI, California, Speaker, Ex Officio Member JOHN A. BOEHNER, Ohio, Minority Leader, Ex Officio Member MICHAEL DELANEY, Staff Director (III) C O N T E N T S CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF HEARINGS 2007 Page HEARING: Wednesday, July 25, 2007, Implications of the National Intelligence Estimate Regarding al Qaeda ............................................................................................. 1 APPENDIX: Wednesday, July 25, 2007 ....................................................................................... 57 WEDNESDAY, JULY 25, 2007 IMPLICATIONS OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE REGARDING AL QAEDA STATEMENTS PRESENTED BY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS Hoekstra, Hon. Peter, a Representative from Michigan, Ranking Member, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence .................................................... 5 Hunter, Hon. Duncan, a Representative from California, Ranking Member, Committee on Armed Services ............................................................................ 3 Reyes, Hon. Silvestre, a Representative from Texas, Chairman, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence ....................................................................... 2 Skelton, Hon. Ike, a Representative from Missouri, Chairman, Committee on Armed Services ................................................................................................ 1 WITNESSES Clapper, Hon. James R., Jr., Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence; accompanied by Mary Beth Long, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs; Peter F. Verga, Acting Assistant Sec- retary of Defense for Homeland Defense; Michael E. Leiter, Principal Dep- uty Director of the National Counterterrorism Center and Director of the Interagency Task Force on Homeland Threats, Office of the Director of National Intelligence; and Edward Gistaro, National Intelligence Officer for Transnational Threats, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, beginning on page ................................................................................................ 8 APPENDIX PREPARED STATEMENTS: Clapper, Hon. James R., Jr. ............................................................................ 78 Gistaro, Edward, joint with Michael E. Leiter ............................................... 94 Hoekstra, Hon. Peter ........................................................................................ 71 Hunter, Hon. Duncan ....................................................................................... 68 Reyes, Hon. Silvestre ....................................................................................... 63 Sanchez, Hon. Loretta, a Representative from California, Committee on Armed Services ............................................................................................. 76 Skelton, Hon. Ike .............................................................................................. 61 (V) VI Page DOCUMENTS SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD: Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate ‘‘Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States’’ dated April 2006 ...................................................................................................... 103 WITNESS RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS ASKED DURING THE HEARING: Ms. Eshoo .......................................................................................................... 109 Mr. Issa ............................................................................................................. 109 QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY MEMBERS POST HEARING: Mr. Hunter ........................................................................................................ 113 Mr. Skelton ....................................................................................................... 113 IMPLICATIONS OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE REGARDING AL QAEDA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, MEETING JOINTLY WITH THE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE, Washington, DC, Wednesday, July 25, 2007. The committees met, pursuant to call, at 1:13 p.m., in room 2118, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Ike Skelton (chairman of the Armed Services Committee) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. IKE SKELTON, A REPRESENTA- TIVE FROM MISSOURI, CHAIRMAN, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES The CHAIRMAN. Ladies and gentlemen, let me welcome today’s panelists. Joe Clapper, thank you for being with us, Secretary Long, Secretary Verga, Mr. Leiter and Mr. Gistaro. Everyone is here. So thank you. This is a very special hearing today, as you will soon learn, that this is pretty much a once-in-a-decade hearing, and we appreciate you being with us today. We convene to examine and discuss the implications of the recent National Intelligence Estimate, also known as NIE. We are joined by and welcome our colleagues from the Intelligence Committee. The NIE is entitled: The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland. The unclassified key judgments contained within include pro- nouncement that the most persistent threat facing the U.S. home- land over the next three years is the one posed by terrorists and especially al Qaeda. As a Nation, we find ourselves in this strategic situation after pouring billions of dollars and thousands of troops into Iraq. This tremendous sacrifice has diverted our Nation from the real war on terror and subjected the Nation to an unacceptable level of risk. This committee has spent a great deal of time looking at the strain on our service members as well as on our equipment. We are tasked with ensuring that our military is ready to respond to the next contingency wherever it may be. But we must also ensure that we can deal with today’s threats, and I am deeply concerned that we have not paid sufficient attention to the places that threaten us the most. Chasing windmills has kept our eye off the more important struggle, the ones with roots in Afghanistan. The recent NIE points this picture out clearly, an unstable region within the borders of Pakistan described as strong and resurgent al Qaeda, that warns of a heightened threat environment. In short, it is not good news. (1) 2 We have asked today’s panelists to join us for a discussion about the scope of the NIE, its assumptions, its implications for our Na- tion. As chairman of the Armed Services Committee, I am also con- cerned about the implications for the Department of Defense (DOD). Must we re-examine the Department of Defense’s force pos- ture? Must we re-assess the Department of Defense’s moderniza- tion priorities? Must we revamp the Department’s policies
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