RADONPANDEMIC EXPOSURELANDSLIDE AND INFECTIOUS FLOODDROUGHT FLASH FLOODFLASHDROUGHT FLOODTERRORISMLEVEEENVIRONMENTAL FAILUREDAM FAILURE HAZARDSDAM FAILUREWINTERWILDFIRE STORM INVASIVE SPECIES PANDEMIC AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE SUBSIDENCE/SINKHOLEEARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE WINDSTORM/TORNADOLIGHTNING TRANSPORTATION CRASH ICE JAM DRUG OVERDOSE CRISISDRUG OVERDOSE CRISIS NUCLEAR INCIDENT WINTER STORM CIVIL DISTURBANCE/MASS SUBSIDENCE LANDSLIDE ICE JAM HAILSTORM EXTREME TEMPERATUREEXTREME WEATHERFIRE AND EXPLOSIONS LIGHTNING STRIKES LEHIGH VALLEYCIVIL HAILSTORM WILDFIRE INVA STRUCTURAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN WIN HAIL HAIL LIGHT LIGHT TERROR EXTREME EXTREME NUCLEAR IUTILITY INTER ICE JAM ICE JAM ENVIRONMENTAL LANDSLIDE SUBSIDENCE/SINK LANDSLIDE SUBSIDENCE CIV FIRE AND EXPLOSION EARTHQUAKE WINDSTORM/TORNADOEARTHQUAKE WINDSTORM LEVEE FAILURE FLASH FLOOD FLASH FLOOD STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE DROUGHT INVASIVEPANDEMIC SPECIESRADON ANDWILDFIRE EXPOSURE INFECTIOUSDROUGHT DISEASE FLOODINVASIVEPANDEMIC SPECIESRADON ANDWILDFIRE EXPOSURE INFECTIOUSWINTER STORM DISEASE TRANSPORTATION CRASHFLOOD The Lehigh Valley Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan update has been financed through the Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) Program, under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Assistance and Emergency Relief Act. This program funds governments and communities for hazard mitigation planning prior to a disaster event. Funding these plans and projects reduces overall risks to the population and structures, while also reducing reliance on funding from actual disaster declarations. Based upon the provisions of the grant agreement with the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Lehigh and Northampton County also provided funding for this project. Federal Emergency Management Agency Approval Pending Adoption October 10, 2018 2 Lehigh Valley Hazard Mitigation Plan Lehigh County Northampton County Phillips Armstrong, County Executive Lamont McClure, County Executive Lehigh County Commissioners Northampton County Council Marty Nothstein, Chair Kenneth M. Kraft, President Amanda Holt, Vice Chair Ronald R. Heckman, Vice President Geoff Brace John Cusick Nathan Brown Matthew H. Dietz Percy H. Dougherty Margaret (Peg) L. Ferraro Marc Grammes Lori Vargo Heffner Dan Hartzell William B. McGee Brad Osborne Robert F. Werner Amy Zanelli Tara M. Zrinski Richard Molchany, Director of General Services Charles Dertinger, Director of Administration Scott Lindenmuth, Director of Emergency Services Todd K. Weaver, Director of Emergency Services Tanya Hook, Community Outreach Coordinator Thomas Guth Jr., Hazard Mitigation Manager 3 L V P C Lehigh Valley Planning Commission Stephen Repasch, Chair John N. Diacogiannis, CPCU, Vice Chair Steven L. Glickman, RA, NCARB, Treasurer Phillips Armstrong Shawn Martell Debra Bodine Lamont McClure Gordon M. Campbell William McGee Eugene Clater Richard Molchany (alt.) Janell Connolly Christina V. Morgan Malissa Davis Thomas J. Nolan Robert Donchez Marty Nothstein Percy H. Dougherty, PhD Ray O’Connell Liesel Dreisbach Owen O’Neil Bob Elbich Salvatore Panto Charles W. Elliott, Esq. Pamela Pearson, MBA Michael Gibson Kathy Rader Julio A. Guridy Tina Roseberry, AICP (alt.) Darlene Heller, AICP (alt.) Kevin Schmidt Kent H. Herman, Esq. Tina Smith (alt.) Jamie Horvath Douglas Stewart (alt.) Dennis Hower Christine Weaver Miriam Huertas Donna Wright Robert A. Lammi Gerald Yob Kevin Lott Greg Zebrowski 4 Lehigh Valley Hazard Mitigation Plan L V P C Lehigh Valley Planning Commission STAFF Becky A. Bradley, AICP, Executive Director Bruce Rider, Director of Administration Tracy L. Oscavich, Director of Development Amanda L. Raudenbush, AICP, Director of Community Planning Geoffrey A. Reese, PE, Director of Environmental Planning Matt Assad, Managing Editor Chandra Parasa, PE, PTOE, Assistant Director of Transportation Planning John von Kerczek, Principal Community Planner Elena Tucci, Senior Environmental Engineer Justin Barclay, Senior GIS Planner Michael S. Donchez, Senior Transportation Planner Teresa Mackey, Senior Environmental Planner Susan L. Rockwell, Senior Environmental Planner Jill Seitz, Community Planner Whitney Burdge, Urban Design Planner Bowen Liu, Geospatial and Economic Systems Developer Craig Kackenmeister, Graphic Designer / Publication Coordinator Brian Hite, Senior Planning Technician Dharam Paul Nohar, Accountant Denise Leonard, Executive Administrative Secretary 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 17 Figure 2.3.2 Population Characteristics 37 1. INTRODUCTION 21 Figure 2.3.3 Percentage of 1.1 Background 21 Lehigh Valley Households 1.2 Purpose 22 by Units in Structure 38 1.3 Scope 23 1.4 Authority and Reference 23 2.4 Land Use and Development 39 Figure 2.4.1 Lehigh Valley 2. COMMUNITY PROFILE 25 Population Projections 39 2.1 Geography and Environment 25 Figure 2.4.2 Existing Figure 2.1.1 Lehigh Valley Location 26 Land Use (2016) 40 Figure 2.1.2 Regional Topography 28 Figure 2.4.3 Transportation Infrastructure and Average Figure 2.1.3 Waterways and Daily Traffic 43 Watersheds 30 2.5 Data Sources and Limitations 45 2.2 Community Facts 31 3. PLANNING PROCESS 47 Figure 2.2.1 Employment Projections 32 3.1 Update Process and Participation Summary 47 2.3 Population and Demographics 33 Table 3.1.1 Summary of Figure 2.3.1 Population Density 34 Changes to the Lehigh Valley Table 2.3.1 Population and Hazard Mitigation Plan 48 Density Statistics 35 3.2 The Planning Team 49 6 Lehigh Valley Hazard Mitigation Plan Table 3.2.1 Administrative Natural Hazards Planning Team 49 4.3.1 Drought 71 Figure 3.2.1 Participating Municipalities 50 4.3.1.1 Location and Extent 71 3.3 Meetings and Documentation 51 4.3.1.2 Range of Magnitude 71 3.4 Public & Stakeholder Table 4.3.1.1 Palmer Drought Participation 55 Severity Index (PDSI) Classifications 73 3.5 Multi-Jurisdictional Planning 56 4.3.1.3 Past Occurrence 74 Table 3.5.1 Municipal Participation and Worksheets 57 Table 4.3.1.2 Past Occurences of Drought Events From 4. RISK ASSESSMENT 61 1950-2017 75 4.1 Update Process Summary 61 4.3.1.4 Future Occurrence 77 4.2 Hazard Identification 62 4.3.1.5 Vulnerability Assessment 77 4.2.1 Table of Presidential 4.3.2 Earthquake 78 Disaster Declarations 62 4.3.2.1 Location and Extent 78 Table 4.2.1.1 Presidential 4.3.2.2 Range of Magnitude 78 Disaster and Emergency Declarations (1955-2017) 62 Table 4.3.2.1 Richter Scale 78 4.2.2 Summary of Hazards 62 Table 4.3.2.2 Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale With Associated Table 4.2.2.1 Hazards Profiled 63 Impacts 79 4.3 Hazard Profiles 71 4.3.2.3 Past Occurrence 80 7 Table 4.3.2.3 Earthquake Events 4.3.4 Flood, Flash Flood, Ice Jam 89 Occuring in the Lehigh Valley 4.3.4.1 Location and Extent 89 Region Between 1871-2017 80 4.3.4.2 Range of Magnitude 90 4.3.2.4 Future Occurrence 80 Figure 4.3.4.1 Floodplains in the 4.3.2.5 Vulnerability Assessment 81 Lehigh Valley 91 Table 4.3.2.4 Estimated Sheltering 4.3.4.3 Past Occurrence 92 Needs for the Lehigh Valley 82 Table 4.3.4.1 Flooding Events Table 4.3.2.5 Estimated Injuries in the Lehigh Valley, 2012-2017 93 and Casualties: 500-Year Earthquake Event 82 Table 4.3.4.2 Ice Jam Events in the Lehigh Valley, 1948-2017 94 Table 4.3.2.6 Estimated Injuries and Casualties: 2,500-Year 4.3.4.4 Future Occurrence 94 Earthquake Event 82 4.3.4.5 Vulnerability Assessment 94 4.3.3 Extreme Temperature 84 Table 4.3.4.3 NFIP Policies, 4.3.3.1 Location and Extent 84 Claims and Repetitive Loss Statistics 98 4.3.3.2 Range of Magnitude 85 4.3.3.3 Past Occurrence 86 4.3.5 Hailstorm 102 4.3.5.1 Location and Extent 102 4.3.3.4 Future Occurrence 86 4.3.5.2 Range of Magnitude 102 Table 4.3.3.1 Extreme Temperature Events in the Lehigh Valley, 4.3.5.3 Past Occurrence 102 2012-2017 87 4.3.5.4 Future Occurrence 103 4.3.3.5 Vulnerability Assessment 87 4.3.5.5 Vulnerability Assessment 103 8 Lehigh Valley Hazard Mitigation Plan Table 4.3.5.1 Hailstorm Events in the Table 4.3.8.1 Lightning Events Lehigh Valley, August 2011-2017 104 in the Lehigh Valley, September 2011-2017 117 4.3.6 Invasive Species 106 4.3.8.4 Future Occurrence 118 4.3.6.1 Location and Extent 106 4.3.8.5 Vulnerability Assessment 118 4.3.6.2 Range of Magnitude 108 4.3.9 Pandemic and 4.3.6.3 Past Occurrence 108 Infectious Disease 119 Table 4.3.6.1 Invasive Species 4.3.9.1 Location and Extent 119 in the Lehigh Valley, 2007-2017 109 4.3.9.2 Range of Magnitude 120 4.3.6.4 Future Occurrence 110 4.3.9.3 Past Occurrence 122 4.3.6.5 Vulnerability Assessment 110 Table 4.3.9.1 West NIle Virus 4.3.7 Landslide 112 Occurrences in the Lehigh Valley, 4.3.7.1 Location and Extent 112 2001-2017 122 4.3.7.2 Range of Magnitude 112 Table 4.3.9.2 Lyme Disease Occurrences in the Lehigh Valley, 4.3.7.3 Past Occurrence 113 2001-2016 123 4.3.7.4 Future Occurrence 113 Table 4.3.9.3 Significant Influenza Outbreaks Over the Past Century 123 4.3.7.5 Vulnerability Assessment 113 Table 4.3.9.4 Reported Influenza 4.3.8 Lightning Strike 115 Cases in the Lehigh Valley, 4.3.8.1 Location and Extent 115 2005-2016 124 4.3.8.2 Range of Magnitude 115 4.3.9.4 Future Occurrence 124 4.3.8.3 Past Occurrence 116 4.3.9.5 Vulnerability Assessment 125 9 4.3.10 Radon Exposure 126 4.3.12.4 Future Occurrence 138 4.3.10.1 Location and Extent 126 4.3.12.5 Vulnerability Assessment 138 4.3.10.2 Range of Magnitude 128 4.3.13 Windstorm/Tornado 140 4.3.10.3 Past Occurrence 128 4.3.13.1 Location and Extent 140 4.3.10.4 Future Occurrence 129 4.3.13.2 Range of Magnitude 140 4.3.10.5 Vulnerability Assessment 129 Table 4.3.13.1 Enhanced Fujita Damage Scale 141 4.3.11 Subsidence/Sinkhole