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PONARS Eurasia POLICY PERSPECTIVES Policy Conference September 2013 IERES • THE INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN, RUSSIAN AND EURASIAN STUDIES PONARS Eurasia POLICY PERSPECTIVES Policy Conference September 2013 PONARS Eurasia is an international network of academics that advances new policy approaches to research and security in Russia and Eurasia. PONARS Eurasia is based at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. This publication was made possible by grants from Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors. Program Directors: Henry E. Hale and Cory Welt Managing Editor: Alexander Schmemann Program Coordinator: Olga Novikova Visiting Fellow and Russian Editor: Sufian Zhemukhov Research Assistants: Julian G. Waller, Daniel J. Heintz PONARS Eurasia Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University 1957 E Street, NW, Suite 412 Washington, DC 20052 Tel: (202) 994-6340 www.ponarseurasia.org © PONARS Eurasia 2013. All rights reserved Cover images: Russia G20 Summit. A view of the second working session of the G-20 summit at the Konstantin Palace in St. Petersburg, Russia. (AP Photo, Dimitar Dilkoff, Pool, Friday, September 6, 2013) Sochi in Summer. Work continues after sunset as cranes stand on a lot adjoining the athletes' village in a coastal area of Sochi, Russia, host of the 2014 Winter Olympics. (Kyodo via AP Images, August 6, 2013) Contents About the Authors iv Foreword vi Cory Welt, Henry E. Hale, The George Washington University Making Sense of Putin 2.0 A New Explanation for Russian Foreign Policy: The Power of Informal Patronage Networks 1 Kimberly Marten, Barnard College, Columbia University From a Normal Country to Normal Authoritarianism: The Transformation of the Political Regime in Russia 6 Nikolay Petrov, Higher School of Economics Civil Society and the Second “Putinshchina” 12 James Richter, Bates College Putin’s Crackdown: Sources, Instruments, and Challenges 17 Brian Taylor, Syracuse University Protests: Motivations and Mechanisms Beyond the Polls: Google Queries and Public Protest Volatility in Russia 22 Mikhail Alexseev, San Diego State University New Media, Political Information, and Opposition Views in Russia: A Cautionary Note Based on Survey Evidence 29 Theodore Gerber, University of Wisconsin-Madison Political Protest and Regime-Opposition Dynamics in Russia 38 Mark Kramer, Harvard University Russian Officialdom from Below Assigning Blame After Natural Disasters in Russia 44 Elise Giuliano, Harriman Institute, Columbia University i Quasi-Feudalism in Higher Education? Rectors and Politics in Russia 51 Serghei Golunov, University of Tartu, Estonia The Unintended Consequences of Russia’s Gubernatorial Elections 55 J. Paul Goode, University of Oklahoma Can Russia Be the West’s Partner? Europe’s Disillusionment with Russia 60 Arkady Moshes, Finnish Institute of International Affairs How the CSTO Can (and Cannot) Help NATO 64 Yulia Nikitina, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) Three Russian Myths About Iran 69 Polina Sinovets, I. I. Mechnikov National University (Odessa) The China Factor in U.S.-Russia Relations 73 Mikhail Troitskiy, MGIMO/MacArthur Foundation Sochi 2014: The Politics of Russia’s Winter Olympics The Politics of Sports Mega-Events in Russia: Kazan, Sochi, and Beyond 78 Andrey Makarychev, University of Tartu, Estonia Sochi 2014: The Political Economy of Russia’s Mega-Projects 84 Robert W. Orttung, The George Washington University Managing the Threat of an Olympics Boycott: International Pressure and Russia’s Response 88 Sufian Zhemukhov, The George Washington University Between Europe and Russia: Winds of Change? NATO-Georgia Relations: Will 2014 Bring Anything New? 92 Kornely Kakachia, Georgian Institute of Politics/Tbilisi State University Armenia and Georgia: A New Pivotal Relationship in the South Caucasus? 97 Sergey Minasyan, Caucasus Institute (Yerevan) A Fork in the Road? Ukraine Between EU Association and the Eurasian Customs Union 102 Oleksandr Sushko, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation (Kyiv) ii Russia: Energy Superpower No More? How Russia’s Energy “Weapon” Turned into an Oil Pillow and Gas Rattle 108 Pavel K. Baev, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) How Much Would It Hurt? Exploring Russia’s Vulnerability to a Drop in Energy Prices 113 Andrew Barnes, Kent State University Russia and the Geopolitics of Natural Gas: Leveraging or Succumbing to Revolution? 118 Adam N. Stulberg, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology Central Asia After 2014: A New Agenda Central Asian Military and Security Forces: Assessing the Impact of Foreign Assistance 124 Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA/Harvard University Revisiting Islamism: A Factor for Democratization in Central Asia? 129 Marlene Laruelle, The George Washington University States of Protest in Central Asia 134 Eric McGlinchey, George Mason University Food Security in Central Asia: A Public Policy Challenge 139 Sebastien Peyrouse, The George Washington University Spinning the Spillover: Why NATO Withdrawal from Afghanistan Does Not Pose a Threat to Central Asia 144 Scott Radnitz, University of Washington iii About the Authors Mikhail Alexseev is Professor of Political Science at San Diego State University. Pavel K. Baev is Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Norway. Andrew Barnes is Associate Professor of Political Science at Kent State University. Theodore Gerber is Professor of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Elise Giuliano is Lecturer in Political Science at the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Serghei Golunov is Research Fellow at the Center for EU-Russian Studies at the University of Tartu, Estonia. J. Paul Goode is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Coordinator of the Russian and East European Studies program at the University of Oklahoma. Dmitry Gorenburg is Research Scientist at CNA Strategic Studies, Associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, and the editor of Russian Politics and Law and Problems of Post Communism. Henry E. Hale is Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs Kornely Kakachia is Associate Professor of Political Science at Tbilisi State University and Director of the Georgian Institute of Politics. Mark Kramer is Director of Cold War Studies at Harvard University and a Senior Fellow at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Marlene Laruelle is Research Professor and Director of the Central Asia Program at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Andrey S. Makarychev is Professor of EU-Russia Studies at the University of Tartu, Estonia. Kimberly Marten is Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and Deputy Director of the Harriman Institute, Columbia University. Eric McGlinchey is Associate Professor in the Department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University. Sergey Minasyan is Head of the Political Studies Department at the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan. iv Arkady Moshes is Program Director for the EU Eastern Neighborhood and Russia research program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Yulia Nikitina is Associate Professor of World Politics and Research Fellow at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). Robert W. Orttung is Associate Research Professor of International Affairs and Assistant Director of the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Nikolay Petrov is Professor of Political Science at the Higher School of Economics. Sebastien Peyrouse is Research Professor of International Affairs at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Scott Radnitz is Associate Professor of International Studies and Director of the Ellison Center for Russian, East European, and Central Asian Studies at the University of Washington. James Richter is Professor in the Department of Politics at Bates College. Polina Sinovets is Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at the I. I. Mechnikov National University, Odessa. Adam N. Stulberg is Associate Professor at Sam Nunn School of International Affairs and Co-Director of the Center for International Strategy, Technology, and Policy at Georgia Tech University. Oleksandr Sushko is Research Director at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv. Brian Taylor is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for European Studies at Syracuse University. Mikhail Troitskiy is Associate Director of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation’s Moscow office and Associate Professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). Cory Welt is Associate Research Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director of the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. Sufian Zhemukhov is a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES)