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Intra‐Metropolitan Crime Patterning and Prediction, Final Report

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Intra‐Metropolitan Crime Patterning and Prediction, Final Report The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: Intra‐Metropolitan Crime Patterning and Prediction, Final Report Author(s): Ralph B. Taylor, Elizabeth R. Groff, David Elesh, Lallen Johnson Document No.: 249739 Date Received: February 2016 Award Number: 2009-IJ-CX-0026 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this federally funded grant report available electronically. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Intra‐Metropolitan Crime Patterning and Prediction Ralph B. Taylor & Elizabeth R. Groff Department of Criminal Justice Temple University David Elesh Department of Sociology Temple University Lallen Johnson Criminal Justice Drexel University FINAL REPORT: GRANT: 2009-IJ-CX-0026 from the National Institute of Justice REVISIONS: October 30, 2014, June 26, 2015 ALL MATERIALS © 2015 BY RALPH B. TAYLOR The opinions stated here are solely those of the authors, and do not reflect the opinions or policies of the National Institute of Justice, the Department of Justice, or Temple University. This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 13 2. SPATIAL PATTERNS ..................................................................................................................... 52 3. TEMPORAL PATTERNS ............................................................................................................... 134 4. SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNING OF CRIME AND ENFORCEMENT CHANGES ............................... 166 5. UNEXPECTED CRIME CHANGES ONE YEAR LATER ....................................................................... 232 6. FORECASTING CRIME ................................................................................................................ 290 7. IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY, POLICY AND PRACTICE ................................................................. 328 8. APPENDIX 1 .............................................................................................................................. 349 9. REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 410 Note to reader. Two manuscripts produced in the course of the current project do not appear in this final report. Those manuscripts are: Groff, E. R., Taylor, R. B., Elesh, D., Johnson, L. T., & McGovern, J. (2014). Permeability across a metropolitan area: Conceptualizing and operationalizing a macro level crime pattern theory. Environment and Planning A, 46(1), 129-152. Johnson, L. T., Taylor, R. B., & Groff, E. R. (2015). Metropolitan local crime clusters: Structural concentration effects and the systemic model. Journal of Criminal Justice, 43(3), 186-194. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crimjus.2015.03.002 Taylor et al. / 2009-IJ-CX-0026 2 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. List of Figures Figure 1. Counties in Philadelphia-Camden primary metropolitan statistical area 50 Figure 2. Jurisdiction types ..................................................................................... 51 Figure 3. 2000 Socioeconomic status: Natural breaks. ......................................... 105 Figure 4. 2000 Socioeconomic status: Quintiles ................................................... 106 Figure 5. Cross referencing SES index scores with 2000 Median House Value .. 107 Figure 6. 2000 Stability percentiles: Natural breaks ............................................. 108 Figure 7. 2000 Stability percentiles: Quintiles ..................................................... 109 Figure 8. 2000 Stability index and 2000 percent owner occupied ........................ 110 Figure 9. 2000 Percent African-American: Natural breaks .................................. 111 Figure 10. 2000 Percent African-American: Quintiles ......................................... 112 Figure 11. 2000 Percent Asian: Natural breaks .................................................... 113 Figure 12. 2000 Percent Hispanic: Natural breaks ............................................... 114 Figure 13. jurisdictions classified by percent white .............................................. 115 Figure 14. Age index percentile: Natural Breaks .................................................. 116 Figure 15. Municipalities receiving complete coverage from a state police agency ........................................................................................................................................... 117 Figure 16. Municipalities with their own, single-municipality police department ........................................................................................................................................... 118 Figure 17. Municipalities with multi-municipality local police department ........ 119 Figure 18. Distribution of police department size: Jurisdictions with their "own" department......................................................................................................................... 120 Figure 19. Median N sworn officers, 2000-2008. ................................................. 121 Taylor et al. / 2009-IJ-CX-0026 3 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Figure 20. Distribution of typical officer coverage rates ...................................... 122 Figure 21. Coverage rate, sworn officers per 1,000 residents, typical year .......... 123 Figure 22. Box and whisker plots: Average and median reported violent crime rates 2000-2008 ................................................................................................................. 124 Figure 23. Typical violent crime rate and corresponding population weighted percentile (PWP) ............................................................................................................... 125 Figure 24. Median reported violent crime rate over the period 2000-2008: Natural breaks ................................................................................................................................ 126 Figure 25. Median reported violent crime rate over the period 2000-2008: Quintiles ............................................................................................................................ 127 Figure 26. Median violent crime population weighted percentiles: Quintile map ........................................................................................................................................... 128 Figure 27. Box and whisker plots: Average and median reported property crime rates 2000-2008. ................................................................................................................ 129 Figure 28. Typical property crime rate and corresponding population weighted percentile (PWP) ............................................................................................................... 130 Figure 29. Median reported property crime rate over the period 2000-2008: Natural breaks ................................................................................................................................ 131 Figure 30. Median reported property crime rate over the period 2000-2008: Quintiles ............................................................................................................................ 132 Figure 31. Median property crime population weighted percentiles: Quintile map ........................................................................................................................................... 133 Taylor et al. / 2009-IJ-CX-0026 4 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Figure 32. Average jurisdiction SES index shifts, by county, by year, in PWP form. .................................................................................................................................. 150 Figure 33. Average jurisdiction stability index shifts, by county, by year, in PWP form. .................................................................................................................................. 151 Figure 34. Average jurisdiction-level percent African-American population, by county, by year. ................................................................................................................
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