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COMMENT Note: This article contains corrected data and supersedes the version originally published in International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive in Volume 35, No. 1. AResponsetoCriticsofFamilyPlanningPrograms

Sharply rising energy and food prices have once again Despite this long-standing and widely accepted ratio - By John Bongaarts raised the specter of the human outstripping nale for voluntary planning programs, funding for and Steven W. the planet’s natural resources. Ever since Malthus, pes - these programs has declined by 30% since the mid- Sinding simists have believed that mankind is doomed due to over - 1990s. 11 A number of reasons can be cited, including the population and , while optimists have ar - (in our view, mistaken) claim that the need for such pro - John Bongaarts is vice gued that technological innovation will improve standards grams has declined, given the significant progress made in president and distin - of living and that is at most a minor reducing , especially in Asia and ; guished scholar of the issue. 1,2 While this renewed debate at the global level re - donor fatigue; persistent opposition fhrom conservative . ceives widespread media attention, another less visible but governments and institutions (in particular the Bush ad - Steven W. Sinding is a equally important discussion of the impact of demo - ministration and the Vatican); and the need for resources senior fellow of the Guttmacher Institute. graphic trends and policy options is under way among the to address other pressing problems, such as the AIDS epi - He is the retired leaders of the least- developed countries. A large majority demic. Unfortunately, this neglect is encouraged by a small director general of the of these leaders agree that population growth and group of influential and determined critics of family plan - International Planned birthrates are too high. 3 Potential adverse effects include ning, whose superficially plausible arguments encourage Parenthood poor health among women and children, slow economic policymakers and donors to reduce investments in con - Federation. growth and , overcrowded schools and clinics and traceptive services and supplies. an overburdened infrastructure, as well as the depletion of The literature is thin on rebuttals to these critics, al - environmental resources. 4 In addition, high unemploy - though it contains many statements on the benefits of fam - ment and inequality among rapidly growing young popu - ily planning programs. 9,12,13 Our objective is to set the lations may contribute to the spread of political violence record straight on several central issues in this debate, to and civil strife. 5–7 show why the most frequently cited critiques of family In many developing countries, these concerns have led planning programs are misleading or wrong, and to to action. Since the 1960s, alongside efforts to increase ed - reestablish a higher priority for family planning on the in - ucational opportunity and improve health conditions, the ternational agenda. main policy response to concern about rapid population growth has been the implementation of voluntary family Critique: Family planning programs have little or no effect on planning programs* that provide information about, and fertility. 14,15 access to, contraceptives. This policy has permitted Response: This argument is based on the view of a number women and men to control their reproductive lives and of economists that couples have the number of children avoid unwanted childbearing. Only in rare cases, most no - they want and can afford. 14,16,17 It assumes that parents se - tably in and briefly in , has coercion been used. lect their family size in more or less the same way they The choice of voluntary family planning programs as choose consumer durables. High fertility in poor countries the principal policy instrument to reduce fertility has been is considered to be the result of couples wanting many based largely on the documentation of a substantial level children to help with household chores and agricultural of unwanted childbearing and an unsatisfied demand for work and to provide for them in old age. Family planning contraception. 8,9 Family planning programs provide a win- costs are often treated as a minor issue in parents’ decision win solution: The welfare of individual women and chil - making. dren is improved, and the national economy and environ - The real world is less simple. In the developing world, ment benefit. The international consensus on this issue is 137 million women who don’t want to get pregnant are reflected in the Millennium Development Goals, specifi - not practicing contraception. 13 The key cause of this cally in Target 5.b.—to provide universal access to repro - unmet need for contraception is that contraception is ductive health by 2015 and to reduce the unmet need for often quite costly to individuals in terms of commodities family planning. 10 (pills, , IUDs, etc.), transportation, and provider fees for contraceptives and services, even when *Since the landmark International Conference on Population and Devel - subsidies are provided by the government. In addition, opment (ICPD) in Cairo in 1994, family planning has been included in the there are significant noneconomic costs, such as health broader concept of . Moreover, in the years since the ICPD, that concept has been broadened even further to incorporate sex - concerns, social disapproval and spousal resistance, as ual health and sexual and . well as unnecessary medical barriers (e.g., requiring a doc -

Volume 35, Number 1, March 2009 39 A Response to Critics of Family Planning Programs

tor instead of a nurse or other trained health care worker tween 1960–1965 and 1985–1990, and almost half of that to provide certain contraceptives. 8 This unmet need is in decline—43%—is attributable to family planning pro - turn responsible for most of the 76 million unplanned grams. 21 Voluntary family planning programs are intend - that occur each year. 13 About half of these ed to reduce the number of unplanned pregnancies, but pregnancies end in and the other half end in they also legitimize and diffuse the idea of smaller , births; both contribute unnecessarily to health risks for thus accelerating the transition to lower fertility. This is im - mothers and children, to the cost of raising families and to portant in countries where women still want large families. the adverse impact of population growth. In such , there will have to be declines in the The existence of a high level of unmet need for contra - number of children desired before sustained fertility de - ception convinced many policymakers that family plan - cline can occur. Desired family size is highly responsive to ning programs would be acceptable and effective. This improvements in human development, in particular in fe - conclusion is supported by results of such experiments as male education and survival. 22–24 This conclusion is the one conducted in the Matlab district of rural strongly supported by the fact that low fertility has been Bangladesh. 18 When this experiment began in the 1970s, achieved in some very poor , such as Cuba, Sri Bangladesh was one of the world’s poorest and least de - Lanka and the state of Kerala in India. Although poor, veloped countries, and there was considerable skepticism these populations have had high levels of literacy and fe - that couples would be motivated to have smaller families. male empowerment and low and , Comprehensive family planning and reproductive along with access to family planning. The most effective health services were provided in the treatment area of the public policies to reduce high fertility, therefore, have pur - experiment. A wide choice of methods was offered, high- sued two strategies: encouraging human development and quality referral and follow-up were provided and a new strengthening the family planning program. In each case cadre of well-trained women (called Family Welfare Visi - cited above, the government invested heavily in primary tors) replaced traditional birth attendants as service health care and free public education for girls and boys providers. Contraceptive use rose sharply as these im - through secondary school, thus addressing two of the provements were implemented. No such change was ob - most powerful determinants of fertility—the reduction of served in the comparison area. The differences between and the empowerment of women. the two areas in contraceptive use and fertility were main - tained over time, thus convincing the Bangladesh govern - Critique: Fertility declines are under way everywhere, so the ment to adopt the Matlab model as its national family plan - population problem has largely been solved and family plan - ning strategy. ning programs are no longer needed. 15,25,26 The result was a 20-year fall in the fertility of Response: A revolution in reproductive behavior has swept Bangladesh, from more than six children per woman to the globe since the 1960s. In the developing world, con - nearly three, as contraceptive use in the same period rose traceptive use, once rare, is now widespread, and the av - from fewer than 10% of married women to more than erage number of births per woman has fallen by half. In 50%. Parts of Bangladesh now have fertility significantly most of the industrialized world, already-low fertility has below three births per woman. 19 The success of the Matlab now dropped below the “replacement level” of two chil - experiment, and the subsequent success of Bangladesh’s dren per woman. 3 These developments have led to claims national family planning program, demonstrated that ap - that the explosion is over. 25,26 propriately designed services can reduce unmet need for Instead of being near the end of the unprecedented contraception and fertility, even in traditional settings. population expansion of the past 50 years, human num - Another convincing illustration of the impact of volun - bers continue to increase by more than 75 million a year, tary family planning is the program introduced in Iran in just as has been the case in every year since 1970. The 1989. Free contraceptive services were provided through - expects the population of the world to out the country by an extensive network of village health continue to grow until at least 2050, adding 2.7 billion to workers. 20 The response was immediate and large: Fertility the 2005 population of 6.5 billion. 3 Nearly all of this fu - declined from more than five births per woman in the late ture growth will occur in the developing world, where pop - 1980s to just two in 2000. No other country experienced a ulation size is projected to increase from 5.3 to 7.9 billion decline of that magnitude during the 1990s. While it is like - between 2005 and 2050. (In contrast, in the developed ly that some fertility change would have occurred without world, population size is forecast to remain virtually stable these new services, the unprecedented pace of the fertility until 2050.) decline argues for a substantial impact of the program. Despite declining fertility rates, large increases in pop - Many other countries have introduced family planning ulation are expected in Africa (by 1.1 billion), Asia (by 1.3 programs since the 1960s. The resources devoted to billion) and Latin America (by 0.2 billion). 3 There are three them—and hence their fertility impact—have varied wide - reasons for this. ly. The aggregate effect of all these efforts has been sub - First, the average decline from six to three births per stantial: Fertility declined in the developing world from woman still leaves fertility substantially above the two- more than six to fewer than four births per woman be - child level needed to bring about population stabilization.

40 International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health With more than two surviving children per woman, every jections for all developing regions, including Africa, pre - generation is larger than the preceding one; as long as that dict further large population increases. This is because the is the case, population expansion continues. annual number of AIDS deaths (two million) is equivalent Second, declines in mortality—historically the main to just 10 days’ growth in the population of the develop - cause of population growth—will almost certainly contin - ing world. The population of Sub-Saharan Africa is ex - ue. Higher standards of living, better , expanded pected to grow by one billion between 2005 and 2050 health services and greater investments in (from 0.77 to 1.76 billion). In fact, high AIDS mortality is measures have increased life expectancy by 50% since not expected to cause a decline in the population of any 1950, and further improvements are likely. African country between 2005 and 2050. Even with the The final factor is “,” which is steady future declines in fertility assumed by the UN, most the tendency for a population to keep growing even if fer - populations in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to more tility could immediately be brought to the replacement than double, several to triple and one (Niger) to quadru - level of 2.1 births per woman. The reason for this growth ple by 2050. 3 is a young population age structure. For example, in Sub- Saharan Africa, 43% of the total population was Critique: Family planning programs are not cost-effective. 14 younger than 15 in 2005. 3 This large new generation of Response: Governments compare costs and benefits when girls is now entering the childbearing years. Even if each determining whether investing in a family planning pro - of these women has only two children, they will produce gram is worthwhile. Costs include contraceptive com - more than enough births to drive population growth for modities, personnel and the management of a service de - decades to come. livery system. Benefits include improvements in personal Further large increases in the population of the already- well-being (giving a woman control of her body), in health crowded developing world are therefore virtually certain. (protection of women and from medical risks dur - In fact, it is possible that current projections underestimate ing , delivery and the , as well future growth because they assume steady declines in fer - as a reduction in mother-to-child transmission of HIV), in tility. This assumption has been proven wrong in a num - socioeconomic development (more rapid economic ber of countries, particularly in Africa (e.g., Kenya and growth and lower demands on public budgets), and in re - Ghana), where fertility declines that started in the 1970s, duced pressure on environmental resources (water, arable 1980s or 1990s have now stalled. 27 Even a modest slow - land, forests). down in the pace of projected fertility decline will produce The data to accurately estimate all these factors are lack - substantial additional population growth. ing, but the cost-effectiveness of family planning as a health investment is well established. The potential health Critique: The death toll of the AIDS makes family impact is evident: The 76 million unintended pregnancies planning undesirable and unnecessary. 28 in the developing world in 2003 resulted in 184,000 preg - Response: By the end of 2006, a cumulative total of about nancy-related deaths and 1.8 million infant deaths. 31 Rais - 25 million individuals had died of AIDS. The death toll will ing contraceptive use to reduce unintended pregnancies reach much higher levels in the future because 33 million will avert a part of these deaths. The ’s Disease individuals are currently infected and many new HIV in - Control Priorities Project estimates the cost of family plan - fections are occurring each year. 29 By far the largest epi - ning at $100 per life-year saved. 32 This is of the same order demics are found in southern Africa, where about one in of magnitude as other health interventions, such as basic five adults are infected. In contrast, other continents expe - for diarrheal disease, a short course of chemo- rience infection levels of only a fraction of 1%. The causes therapy for TB and distribution for HIV preven - of the concentration of the epidemic in one region of Africa tion. It is worth noting that all these interventions are include a relatively high frequency of multiple and concur - about 10 times as cost-effective as antiretroviral treatment rent sexual partners, low levels of male circumcision, a high of AIDS, which currently receives a large proportion of prevalence of other STIs and low use of condoms. 30 health-related development aid. 32 A massive global effort has been mounted to reduce in - Investments in family planning are often also justified fections through prevention programs (which encourage on economic and environmental grounds. Rapid popula - , reduction in number of partners and increased tion growth and high fertility typically lead to slower eco - condom use, as well as VCT and use of family planning by nomic growth and higher levels of poverty than would oth - infected women) and to extend the lives of infected indi - erwise be the case. 4 Conversely, rapid fertility decline viduals with antiretroviral therapy. These prevention ef - creates a so-called “,” which boosts forts are partly responsible for a major recent turning point economic growth for a few decades by increasing the size in the epidemic. 30 After a period of rapid spread, the epi - of the labor force relative to both young and old depen - demic appears to have stabilized in most countries and the dents and by stimulating savings. proportion of adults infected with HIV is no longer rising Governments of poor, largely agricultural countries also and may even be declining. 29,30 realize that rising food demand caused by population Despite the substantial mortality from AIDS, UN pro - growth (compounded by rising incomes, as, for example,

Volume 35, Number 1, March 2009 41 A Response to Critics of Family Planning Programs

is now occurring in India and China) will be difficult to women in particular, to the role of passive victims of pop - meet as environmental constraints on production grow ulation control policies sponsored by the elite. They ar - over time. Nearly everywhere, the most productive land is gued that rather than working to improve the underlying already used for agriculture or covered by man-made struc - conditions of the lives of the poor, which would invariably tures, the best river sites have been dammed and water result in a reduced demand for children, policymakers shortages are often acute. The newest threat to food pro - were employing the shortcut of population control poli - duction comes from steeply rising energy prices. Energy is cies, violating , and in many cases, actually an integral part of every step in the food production sys - worsening poor people’s living conditions and opportu - tem—cultivation, harvesting, transportation, refrigeration, nities to escape from poverty. packaging and distribution—and prices of hydrocarbon- In addition, by the 1980s, overwhelming evidence indi - based fertilizer and pesticides have skyrocketed. In such cated that such fertility reduction measures were unneces - circumstances, raising agricultural production and stan - sary. The results of numerous community studies and dards of living while the population more than doubles is large-scale survey research revealed a demand for family highly problematic. planning services sufficient to bring about substantial de - Improved national security is yet another potential ben - clines in fertility. 8,13 There were also the early success sto - efit from lower fertility. High fertility in many countries of ries of high-quality, voluntary family planning programs in Africa and the Middle East has resulted in very young age countries like Thailand, Korea, , Morocco, Colom - structures, with up to half the population younger than 15. bia, Mexico and Costa Rica, where rapid and large declines The inability of many of these countries to provide ade - in fertility occurred without use of coercive measures. For quate educational and employment opportunities is a so - example, between 1960–1965 and 1980–1985, the total cially and politically volatile mix, often producing frus - fertility rate in Thailand declined from 6.4 to 3.0, and in trated youth who are potentially susceptible to the appeals Korea from 5.6 to 2.2.3 Parenthetically, in our view the ab - of radical political ideologies. 6,7 sence of access to contraception should also be considered a form of coercion, because it frequently condemns women Critique: Family planning programs at best have made women to bearing children they do not wish to have. the instruments of population control policies and, at worst, As a result of both the outrage inspired by intrusive and have been coercive. 15,33 unethical policies and the existence of a large unmet need Response: In the 1960s and 1970s, evidence that family for contraception, the International Conference on Popu - planning programs could help meet an existing demand lation and Development at Cairo in 1994 explicitly con - for contraception and reduce fertility was still limited. Pilot demned such policies and reiterated the call of earlier pop - projects in places like Taiwan and Korea were successful, ulation conferences for reproductive health programs, and surveys in a number of countries documented a de - including family planning, to be completely voluntary. The mand for contraception. 34 This evidence persuaded pro - conference went beyond earlier meetings in calling on ponents of voluntary family planning programs that scal - countries to drop demographic targets and family plan - ing up would be effective. Two major international donors, ning acceptor quotas. Today, nearly all programs around USAID and UNFPA, also advocated this approach. Howev - the world respect the right of couples to make informed er, skeptics claimed that couples were insufficiently moti - reproductive choices, free from undue persuasion or co - vated to adopt contraception and pointed to a lack of fer - ercion. A typical example is the decision by India, shortly tility change in many developing countries, including India after the Cairo conference, to adopt a target-free approach and , where very early and poorly designed family in its reproductive health program (even though method planning programs had produced disappointing results. 35 choice remains limited in many parts of the country). An Especially in Asia, where concern about rapid popula - important exception is China, where the one-child policy tion growth was most acute, several national governments continues to violate Cairo’s reproductive rights standards. employed measures that were designed to address directly Yet the perception lingers that family planning programs the perceived weakness of demand for smaller families. throughout the developing world still place undue pres - These measures ranged from fieldworker targets and quo - sure on families, and particularly on women, to conform tas for enlistment of “new acceptors” of contraception (a to reproductive norms imposed by governments—a per - strategy employed by many Asian countries) to incentive ception that is no longer supported by the evidence. payments to adopt family planning (Bangladesh, India), to so-called disincentives regarding large families (Singapore), CONCLUSION to community pressures to use contraceptives (Indonesia), Since the time of Malthus, population growth and what to to outright coercion (China, India in 1976–1977). do about it has been the subject of controversy. Perhaps Human rights and women’s health advocates, as well as because at its most fundamental level it deals with sex, it many of those promoting voluntary family planning, were has been a peculiarly incendiary subject of public policy appalled by such policies and attacked them with increas - debate. This is no less true today than it was when Malthus ing passion through the 1970s and 1980s and into the wrote more than 200 years ago. Yet much of today’s dis - 1990s. Such policies, they argued, reduced poor people, cussion about family planning programs, a principal in -

42 International Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health strument through which population policies have been ducing fertility, thus benefiting . Morally unaccept - implemented over the past 50 years, is based on faulty per - able policies designed to pressure or compel people to limit ceptions and misinformation. Large-scale national family their fertility have been shown to be unnecessary and thus planning responses to unprecedented rates of population have been abandoned, except in China. growth were an invention of the mid-20th century, and for Unfortunately, funding for family planning programs the most part they have been remarkably successful. has faltered for more than a decade. Between 1995 and First, family planning programs have had a major and un - 2008, while funds committed by donors and developing ambiguous impact on fertility rates in many countries. In countries to HIV and AIDS programming increased by some countries, fertility fell from very high levels to re - nearly 300%, funds devoted to family planning declined placement level within one generation, a previously un - by some 30%. 27 As a result, many countries are less able to heard-of decline that could not have occurred so rapidly in provide family planning services today than they were a the absence of the modern technologies and delivery sys - decade ago, and much of the earlier commitment has tems offered by such programs. 21 It is also likely that fertili - waned. There are indications that fertility declines are lev - ty decline, in the absence of family planning policies and eling off or even being reversed in some countries. programs, would have commenced somewhat later than it Why does this matter? Women and children continue actually did in several countries. The second half of the 20th to suffer and die as a consequence of unwanted and unin - century witnessed a veritable reproductive revolution, sup - tended childbearing. Beyond that are renewed concerns ported by unprecedented cooperation between interna - about a variety of environmental issues and about the se - tional agencies and governments in the developing world. curity of nations and the stability of governments, as well Second, despite this success, there are still countries and as deepening worries about and pervasive regions in which high fertility remains a challenge and poverty. In the face of declining political and financial com - where progress in raising incomes and improving liveli - mitment to family planning programs, we must address hoods is imperiled by rapid population growth and popu - head-on the faulty criticisms that have held back efforts to lation pressures on fragile ecosystems. 36 Foremost among satisfy the unmet demand for family planning services. these is much of Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest re - High fertility and rapid population growth remain real gion, where average fertility remains above five children per problems that merit our attention and action. woman and declines are slow. Falling fertility elsewhere and low fertility in today’s richest countries should not REFERENCES 1. Ehrlich PR and Ehrlich AH, One with Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, deter us from helping these remaining high-fertility coun - and the Human Future , Washington, DC: Island Press , 2005. tries to address their large unmet need for contraception. 2. 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