Choice Hotel International InvestmentNYSE: CHH Research Presentation MonthSector: Day, Consumer 20XX Discretionary Senior Analysts: Austin Hsu & Matthew Smith Junior Analysts: Anna Watson, Camryn Difiore, Javier De Urdanibia, Sikta Samal
Spring 2018
1 Valuation Summary
Recommendation Summary REIT’s
Choice Hotel International, Inc. CHH Current Trading Price (4/9/18) $ 79.15
Recommendation HOLD Target Price $ 85.97 Upside Potential 8.6%
Recommendation HOLD
2 Agenda
Industry Definition & Breakdown
Company Overview
Revenue Generation Model
Industry & Company Trends
Risk Analysis
Comparable & DCF Valuation
Summary/Recommendation
3 Industry Definition Hotels & Motels Operators provide temporary lodging in hotels, motels, and resorts. Establishments may also offer services including food and beverage, conference room, laundry, parking, etc.. The industry excludes any hotels that have casinos attached to them.
Companies Within this Industry:
Marriott International Choice Hotels International Hyatt Hotels Corporation (NASDAQ: MAR) Market Cap: $41.6B (NYSE: CHH) Market Cap: $4.5B (NYSE: H) Market Cap: $7.5 B
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Wynn Resorts, Limited Intercontinental Hotels Group (NYSE: HLT) Market Cap: $22.3B (NASDAQ: WYNN) Market Cap: $19.9B (NYSE: IHG) Market Cap: $10.1B
Sources: IBIS World, CapIQ 4 Industry Breakdown
Hotel Industry Overview Market Share Breakdown
Marriott Number of Countries 20% Hotels Hotels Rooms Represented Brands
Wyndham 8,145 708,545 78 19
Choice 6,557 500,000 40 12
Marriott 6,200 1,200,000 125 30 Other Hilton 53% 13% InterContinental 5,272 785,544 100 12
Hilton 5,100 837,692 103 14 InterContinental 6.9% Best Western 3,651 295,878 101 12 Wyndham Choice 3.8% 3.1%
Source: IBIS World, The Points Guy 5 Company Overview
§ Founded and based in Rockville, Maryland CHOICE HOTELS Market § CEO: Patrick Pacious, CFO: Dominic Dragisich Capitalization $4.505 Billion § Offers value to consumers across diverse markets including economy, mid-scale and upscale segments 2017 Revenue $1,007.4 Million
§ Global holdings in over 40 countries and territories Property Count 6,866 Properties (Domestic & (5,740 Domestic, International) 1,126 International) § Operates on a franchise model which is less capital intensive than outright property ownership ADR $84.02
§ Develops cloud-based technology products to the Occupancy Rate 62.2% hotel industry, including inventory management, pricing, and connectivity to third party channels and RevPAR $52.25 hoteliers
Source: 10K, Choice Hotel, Reuters 6 Revenue Generation Model
Revenue Streams
Royalty Fees Fees calculated as a percentage of gross sales or number of rooms in franchised hotels depending on agreement Initial franchise relicensing fees Initial Franchise & Fees are collected during initial franchise agreement as well Relicensing Fees as relicensing fees from expired contracts
Procurement Fees from business transactions with vendors and strategic Services alliance partners
Marketing & Fees are recollected to be reinvestedMarketing for system & Reservation wide Reservations support activities (Advertising, Maintenance, PMS upgrades)
Others Fees from SkyTouch TechnologyOther
Source: 10K, Choice Hotel 77 Industry Trends
REIT’s Shrinking Loyalty Independent Programs Hotels
8 Industry Trend #1: Loyalty Programs
Membership as Membership as Membership § Ranked No.1 in USA Today’s Choice Awards and No.3 in Programs of 2015 of 2014 Percent Change the Best Hotel Rewards Programs by U.S. News IHG Rewards Club 92M 84M 10% § Includes more than 6,500 participating hotels throughout Marriott Rewards + the United States, Europe, Mexico and the Caribbean Ritz Carlton Rewards 54M 49M 10.20%
§ Program is divided into four tiers: Member, Gold, Hilton Platinum and Diamond HHonors 51M 44M 15.90% Wyndham § Members can earn points at Choice brand hotels that can Rewards 45M 32.3M 39.7% be used towards future stays at Choice Hotels properties, Choice select Preferred Hotels and Resorts brand properties, Privileges 25M 21M 19% airline miles, cruise vacations and gift cards Hyatt Gold Passport 20M 18M 11% § Cornell School of Hotel Administration Study – Rewards members: $2400 annual revenue per guest La Quinta 11M 10M 10% – Non-members: $1600 annual revenue per guest – Frequency of stays booked by a guest at hotels rose on average by 49% Hotel Loyalty Program = – 50% increase in revenue compared to those who did More recurring revenue, Increase stay not join the program frequency, Guests Spending
Source: Cornell School of Hotel Administration, Deloitte, US World News, USA Today 9 Industry Trend #1: Loyalty Programs
Hotel Group A: Hotel group with an average ADR of $73 Budget Economy à Midscale Hotel Group B : hotel with significantly higher ADR of $261. Upscale à Luxury
Spending habits of eventual Stash members vs Non-members prior to the enrollment period Hotel A Hotel B
Non-members Stash Members Non-members Stash Members Average Revenue Per Night $70.19 $97.65 $269.02 $262.41 Total Nights per year 2.84 8.69 4.46 5.77 Total Stays per year 1.15 3.26 1.79 2.21 Total Revenue per year $190.75 $712.59 $1,296.05 $1,591.25 Changes in guest spending due to enrollment in Stash Hotel Rewards program Hotel A Hotel B Numerical Change Percentage Change Numerical Change Percentage Change Average Revenue Per Night $3.62 4% $2.41 1% Total Nights Per year 3.9 45% 2.83 49% Total Stays per year 1.46 45% 1.15 52% Total Revenue per year $404.94 57% $780.65 49%
Increased Revenue Per Night Increased Nights per Year Increased Stays Per Year Increased Total Revenue
Source: Cornell School of Hotel Administration 10 Industry Trend #2: Decreasing Amount of Unbranded Hotels
§ Due to high fixed costs of hotel industry, becoming a franchise of a CHH: Growth from Franchises (2012-2017) larger brand often improves $56.00 independent hotel financial $54.00 y = 0.029x - 106.09 performance R² = 0.8299 $52.00 2017 2016