CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS TAIWAN NAVIGATES US-CHINA TENSIONS AS IT MANAGES THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 DAVE KEEGAN, JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES KYLE CHURCHMAN, JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Simmering tensions across the Taiwan Strait were a concern in May at the World Health Assembly meeting, along with President Tsai’s second inauguration, China’s National People’s Congress, and the 15th anniversary of the Anti-Secession Law. The beginning of Tsai’s second term was defined by Taiwan’s success in overcoming the health and economic impacts of COVID-19. Taiwan failed to win a seat at the World Health Assembly, but won unusually broad and public support from Washington and other typically silent partners. Taiwan offered assistance to victims of the Beijing’s National Security Law for Hong Kong, prompting Beijing to warn of Taiwan’s “black hand.” Taiwan’s ties with the US were showcased by the August visit of Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar to Taipei. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific, Vol. 22, No. 2, September 2020. Preferred citation: David G. Brown and Kyle Churchman, “China-Taiwan Relations: Taiwan Navigates US-China Tensions as it Manages the Effects of COVID-19,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp 71-80. CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS | SEPTEMBER 2020 71 Elsewhere, seeking to jumpstart negotiations on mentioned during the ceremony, Democratic a bilateral trade agreement with the US, Tsai candidate Joe Biden also publicly congratulated announced that Taiwan will allow imports of US Tsai, as he had on her election in January. But, pork and beef. The Nationalist Party’s recent unnerving some in Taiwan, the Vatican did not presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu was recalled join the congratulatory chorus. as Kaohsiung mayor and replaced by DPP candidate Chen Chi-mai. Meanwhile, the new KMT leadership’s initiative to sever ties to the “1992 Consensus” provoked generational dissension and a sharp warning from Beijing. Lee Teng-hui was mourned at his death as a democratic hero. The Annual Frustration of the World Health Assembly Two days before Tsai’s inauguration, Taiwan Figure 1 Tsai Ing-wen takes the oath of office to begin her Foreign Minister Joseph Wu informed reporters second term as Taiwan’s first female president on that Taiwan was abandoning its bid for observer Wednesday, May 20, 2020. Photo: CNA status at the World Health Assembly, saying he wanted the World Health Organization to use the The president used her inaugural address to two-day meeting to focus on pandemic thank “the people of Taiwan” for handling response. As it has every year since Tsai became COVID-19 calmly and responsibly, which also president, Beijing blocked Taiwan’s enabled her to claim credit for the success with participation as an observer. However, Taiwan which the Taiwan government managed both could take some solace in having won a broad the pandemic and the economic downturn it range of public international support. The US engendered. statement of support was issued by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an unusually high level. As in her 2016 inaugural address, Tsai focused Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, which had first on domestic reforms before turning to been quiet in the past, spoke out as well. Then, regional and international relations, and then to a report in Foreign Policy claimed that Beijing had relations with China. She repeated her written WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom commitment to conduct cross-Strait relations Ghebreyesus, insisting that the “one-China according to the Constitution of the Republic of principle” precluded Taiwan’s participation. China and to maintain a “peaceful and stable However, the momentum Taiwan may have status quo.” She called for cross-Strait dialogue, gained this year in its observer bid was undercut repeating the call in her election victory by the US announcement that it would withdraw statement in January for cross-Strait relations from the WHO, potentially depriving Taiwan of based on “peace, parity, democracy, and its most vocal and influential advocate. dialogue.” She specifically rejected “one country, two systems” à la Hong Kong, which Tsai’s Inauguration–A High-Profile, Socially she said would only “undermine the status Distanced Celebration quo.” On May 20, Tsai was inaugurated for her second Tsai stressed a commitment to national defense term as president. Restrictions imposed by the reform, a theme not included in her 2016 COVID-19 pandemic meant the event lacked the inaugural address, promising that Taiwan will scale and pomp of previous inaugurations. Tsai accelerate development of its asymmetrical opted instead for a small celebration in front of capabilities and strengthen defenses against a few dozen local dignitaries and resident “threats of cyber warfare.” She promised to foreign diplomats. The inability to host visiting strengthen Taiwan’s reserve forces and heads of state focused more attention on mobilization capabilities while improving the congratulatory statements, such as Pompeo’s military’s prestige and morale. press statement and US National Security Council Senior Director Matthew Pottinger’s video statement in Chinese, both of which were highlighted during the event. Though not 72 SEPTEMBER 2020 | CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS COVID-19: A Crisis Well-Managed conclusion of China’s NPC, and they were later added to the official NPC text of his work report Taiwan’s successful management of COVID-19 online. highlighted President Tsai’s steady low-key managerial skills. By mid-May, new infections Hard on the heels of the NPC, Politburo member declined sharply, deaths remained in the single Li Zhanshu took a somewhat harder line at a digits, and life returned to near-normal. By the forum marking the 15th anniversary of China’s end of August, foreign students were allowed to Anti-Secession Law, saying that the law return to Taiwan universities, including provided grounds for taking “necessary mainland Chinese students. actions” against any Taiwan move toward independence. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs As a result of the pandemic, the economy slowed Council (MAC) in turn rejected any use of force significantly. In response, the Ministry of against Taiwan and repeated Tsai’s call for the Finance introduced a pair of programs to mainland to accept “peace, parity, democracy revitalize investment in core industries, and dialogue.” including bio-tech and cyber security. At the beginning of July, Premier Su Tseng-chang As the Anti-Secession Law was ratified by the announced a series of vouchers to stimulate NPC on March 14, 2005, it is interesting to consumer spending. On June 29, Taiwan began speculate whether the anniversary was pushed to reopen to business travelers from low-risk back to late May because it was packaged areas, including Hong Kong and Macau. Despite together with the NPC as a follow-on event. these efforts, the Ministry of Labor reported that While that seems likely, it is also possible that the number of furloughed workers had exceeded the Chinese leadership saw celebrating the Anti- 31,000, the highest level in 11 years. Secession Law as a convenient cudgel to swing after Tsai’s celebration of Taiwanese identity in By the end of July, economic analysts, including her inaugural address. Certainly, Beijing had to the Taiwan Institute for Economic Research be disconcerted at how Taiwan burnished its (TIER), were beginning to increase their GDP reputation by overcoming difficulties like forecasts for the year—which, though still COVID-19 and exclusion from the WHA. anticipated to show less than 2% growth, were still better than the negative growth in other Visibility Defines US-Taiwan Relationship Asian tigers. The US was unusually forthright in its praise for Beijing Signals Restrained Displeasure Taiwan and critical of China both at the World Health Assembly opening and Tsai’s China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) and inauguration. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper Ministry of Foreign Affairs both issued the later went to Twitter to emphasize the US obligatory statements rejecting Tsai’s inaugural defense commitment “to a democratic Taiwan,” address as another attempt to create “Taiwan and the joint statement of the annual meeting of independence.” China’s National People’s the US and Australian ministers of foreign Congress (NPC) opened its 2020 annual meeting affairs and defense (AUSMIN) highlighted their on May 22, after a delay from March due to the “renewed resolve to support Taiwan.” In a Fox pandemic, with Premier Li Keqiang presenting News interview on the opening day of the the government’s work report. As always, it Republican Nominating Convention, when included a statement of the government’s asked what he would do if China invaded commitment to reunification and opposition to Taiwan, President Trump responded “China Taiwan independence. In reiterating those knows what I’m gonna do. China knows.” commitments, the premier’s work report failed to say that the reunification China would pursue In early July, the head of the Taiwan Economic would be “peaceful” and based on the 1992 and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO), consensus. The omission of these two standard Stanly Kao, completed his term and departed elements prompted many analysts to wonder Washington; his successor Bikhim Hsiao arrived what policy changes or warning they might a few days later. What would have been an signify. Whatever the omissions were intended inconsequential formality for any other to have signaled was clearly limited since Li ambassadorial-level change of the guard, used both “peaceful” and “1992 consensus” in departure, and arrival courtesy calls, led to discussing Taiwan in his press conference at the TECRO’s first ever publicized meetings in the CHINA- TAIWAN RELATIONS | SEPTEMBER 2020 73 State Department with the Assistant Secretary of Authorization Act for 2021, which included four East Asian and Pacific Affairs David Stilwell.