BY ZACH PATTON NO ONE KNOWS FOR CERTAIN what the future holds. But some people have a pretty good idea. To get a sense of what the coming decade might mean for state and local governments, we asked more than two dozen futurists — including thought leaders, public officials, academics and tech experts — for their predictions on the trends that will have the greatest impact on the public sector over the next 10 years. Their responses, condensed and edited here, provide a glimpse into what may happen in the years ahead.

THE FUTURISTS SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

12 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 Elatia Abate Art Guzzetti MEET THE Entrepreneur, educator and strategist whose Vice president for mobility initiatives and TEDx Talk, “Pioneering the Future of Work,” policy for the American Public Transportation FUTURISTS can be found online. @elaabate Association. Oualid Ali Pat Howard Consultant and expert on global forecasting; Offerings and solutions leader for Deloitte’s founder and president of the Future Government and Public Services practice; Cities Council. former national health-care leader for Deloitte.

Ginger Armbruster Nigel Jacob Chief privacy officer for the city of Seattle. Award-winning co-founder of Boston’s Oversees citywide Privacy Program, which Office of New Urban Mechanics. @nsjacob she developed in 2015. Kristin Judge Bob Bennett Cybersecurity expert; founder and CEO of the Founder of B2 Civic Solutions; former chief Cybercrime Support Network. @kfjudge innovation officer for Kansas City, Mo. @BobBennett_b2 Gabe Klein Co-founder of Cityfi; former transportation Maria Bothwell director for cities of Chicago and Washington, CEO of Toffler and Associates, a future-focused D.C.; author of Start-Up City. @gabe_klein strategic advisory firm. @mariabothwell Bertalan Meskó Vint Cerf Expert in genomics and health-care Vice president and “chief Internet evangelist” technology; author; director of the Medical at Google; widely known as one of the “Fathers Futurist Institute. @Berci of the Internet.” @vgcerf Erica Orange Nancy Donovan Executive vice president and chief operating Co-creator of the Public Sector Foresight officer of The Future Hunters, a global futurist Network; former director of domestic relations consulting firm. @ErOrange at U.S. GAO. @NancyJDonovan Connie Reimers-Hild William Eggers Founder and chief futurist at Wild Innovation; Executive director of Deloitte’s Center for former executive director of the Rural Futures Government Insights; author of numerous books Institute at the University of Nebraska. including Delivering on Digital. @wdeggers @askdrconnie

Brian Elms Ervan Rodgers II National change management expert; former CIO for the state of Ohio; assistant director director of Denver’s Peak Academy; author of of the Ohio Department of Administrative Peak Performance. Services.

Gordon Feller Rebecca Ryan Co-founder of Meeting of the Minds, a global Economist and author; resident futurist at leadership network on urban sustainability. the Local Government Institute of Wisconsin. @gordonfeller @ngcrebecca

Dr. Emmanuel Fombu Jordan Sun Physician; entrepreneur; author of The Future of Chief innovation officer for the city of San Healthcare: Humans and Machines Partnering for José, Calif.; innovation officer and major with Better Outcomes. @DrMannyMD the U.S. Army.

Cindy Frewen Dan Tangherlini Architect; urban designer; former board chair Former administrator of General Services of the Association of Professional Futurists. Administration; former CFO of U.S. Treasury @urbanverse Department. @DanTangherlini

Thomas Frey Maria Thompson Futurist speaker and founder of DaVinci Institute; Chief risk officer for the state of North author of Epiphany Z: 8 Radical Visions for Carolina; former cybersecurity chief for Transforming Your Future. @ThomasFrey the U.S. Marine Corps. @NCRiskOfficer

Roberto Gallardo R “Ray” Wang Director of the Center for Regional Development Founder of Constellation Research; co-host at Purdue University; author of Responsive of DisrupTV, a weekly enterprise tech and Countryside: The Digital Age & Rural Communities. leadership webcast. @rwang0 @robertoge Amy Webb Lawrence Grodeska Founder of Future Today Institute; professor Co-founder and CEO of CivicMakers; former public- of strategic foresight at NYU Stern School of FUTURISTS sector tech leader who released San Francisco’s Business; author of The Signals Are Talking. first mobile app based on open data. @grodeska @amywebb

12 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 THE FUTURISTS THE PANDEMIC…

We’re only beginning to understand “Taiwan leveraged the strength of its The three biggest trends of the what the long-term impacts of the manufacturing sector and invested coming years, according to Tangherlini? pandemic will be on public life. But approximately $6.8 million to create “Complexity, complexity and complexity. it’s clear the coronavirus will reshape our 60 new mask production lines in a The ‘black swan’ event of the world in myriad ways both large and small. short time, which increased their daily pandemic demonstrates the cascading Think of it as a slow-motion earthquake, mask production capacity from 1.8 connectivity of programs and systems said Elatia Abate. “We are currently in the million masks to 8 million masks. They that will provide opportunities and midst of health and economic challenges were able to flatten the pandemic threats to those who plan, develop, from the first strike of the virus,” she said. curve through early detection, thus operate, and finance state and city “The secondary and tertiary impacts in keeping their health systems from programs and infrastructure. To health and the economy will come rolling in becoming rapidly overwhelmed. I successfully manage risk and enhance like aftershocks — mental health issues like foresee many cities and states putting resiliency, managers will need to find anxiety, depression, suicide and addiction, such contingency plans in place.” opportunities for collaboration.” and economic challenges like massive Beyond the public health implications, waves of evictions, credit defaults, continued it’s evident the pandemic has already job losses and a tighter labor market.” accelerated many governments’ progress Of course, the most immediate impact toward digital service delivery. of the virus has been on public health. “COVID-19 showed that very few services And on that topic, said Bertalan Meskó, require in-person delivery. The pandemic …AND THE there’s reason to be optimistic. “Health care is forcing governments to shift an array will finally get the attention it has always of in-person services online,” said William deserved,” he predicted. “Remote care Eggers. “More and more government will be the new norm, and the health of services, from licensing to human services, PANDEMIC medical professionals will receive priority.” will be delivered digitally with embedded Governments that implement lessons intelligence in the coming years.” learned from the pandemic will be more Before long, predicted Kristin Judge, RECESSION resilient in the face of future crises, said “government services will be almost 100 Emmanuel Fombu. “Cities and states that percent virtual. I don’t see us going to a are open, transparent, collaborative and county building for services or even having adopt comprehensive responses will be elected officials in the buildings much.” better positioned to manage pandemics That digital acceleration will be “The coronavirus,” says Thomas than those that are not,” Fombu said. seen across the public spectrum, said Frey, “will prove to be the most “While it’s still too early to declare a Art Guzzetti. “For example, the expensive crisis in human history, success, the early response of Singapore movement of transit agencies toward even more expensive than WWII. and Taiwan stand out. Both applied the cashless payments was driven by new Businesses were simply never designed to lessons learned from past pandemics technologies facilitating payment via be shut down and restarted months later; and had the investigative capacities, cellphones and open payment systems,” 30 to 40 percent of inner-city retail stores health systems and, most importantly, the he said. “Such policies were speeding the will fail and never reopen. We’re witnessing leadership in place to quickly take decisive boarding process and transit operations the biggest job transition in history.” action.” Anticipating a high demand for even before the pandemic, reducing the As the pandemic influences where people masks in late January, Fombu said, the need for costly systems and procedures choose to work and live, governments will government of Taiwan started rationing required for the handling of cash and, be significantly impacted. existing mask supplies. “Taiwanese most important, improving the customer “We’ll see a mass exodus from high citizens can now go to designated drug experience. Health issues in the pandemic cost-of-living cities as more companies stores to buy a designated amount of have further discouraged the exchange go to remote work,” said Lawrence masks on a weekly basis. This policy and of cash.” Grodeska. “It will be a reversal of the strategy will hopefully be duplicated by More than anything, said Dan urbanization trend of the past few decades. other cities and states going forward.” Tangherlini, the pandemic has exposed Pre-pandemic predictions of how many Local governments will also have to the interconnectedness of how crises invest in manufacturing, Fombu said. impact our lives.

14 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 15 …AND THE PANDEMIC RECESSION

people will live in cities in the coming “Difficulties in financing the many governments where property decades are likely to be highly skewed.” services provided by state and local taxes provide a continuing and That large-scale relocation will have governments will be exacerbated by stable source of revenue may a massive effect on governments, said the decline in key sources of revenue, be less seriously affected.” Amy Webb. For example, she said, “even including state aid for cities, as well Not all economic effects of if a fraction of the tech workers living as property, income and sales taxes,” the pandemic will necessarily be in Silicon Valley leave, that will render agreed Nancy Donovan. But she also negative, if states and cities are apartments and houses empty. Declining noted that some places will be hit willing to take appropriate action, property taxes means less city revenue, harder than others. “The current said Maria Bothwell. “The pandemic and that will have reverberating impacts flight of urban residents to less- exposed the vulnerabilities of across social services, schools and densely populated areas could result a global, concentrated supply infrastructure.” Meanwhile, as those and in a decline in revenue from personal chain. If this spurs repatriation other “tech migrants” settle elsewhere, income taxes. Persistent concern over of manufacturing in the U.S., they could overburden governments in frequenting indoor establishments it could create a resurgence in their new homes. “If development happens could affect the amount of sales exurban and rural communities fast and without a comprehensive taxes collected, another important and also stimulate the re-growth growth strategy or plan, city services source of revenue, especially in areas of a middle class supporting would be overwhelmed,” said Webb. dependent on tourism. In contrast, that manufacturing.” SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

14 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 15 THE FUTURISTS FORECASTS: Predictions for the public sector over the next 10 years

It’s no surprise that nearly every a more accurate story and would as the opportunities for supporting person we talked to predicted also empower local governments to more meaningful civic engagement that artificial intelligence will be modernize work streams, find effi- and effective service delivery.” the biggest trend impacting state ciencies and provide better services.” Much of the hand-wringing over AI and local government. (Climate But AI remains largely misunder- has been about its impact on the work- change was a close second.) stood by the public sector, according to force, with the potential to automate Almost every single one of our most of our futurists. and eliminate entire job categories. futurists said that AI — along with “Artificial intelligence is partially “A major theme of recent years machine learning and big data — overblown and partially not hyped is the disintermediation of human will have the greatest effect on enough, which are symptoms of a labor by AI and other technologies,” public life in the coming decade. true lack of understanding of what said Erica Orange. “But much of “Conversational AI and digital artificial intelligence can and can’t the conversation has been centered identity will be a game changer in do,” said Maria Bothwell. “We’ll likely on private-sector disintermedi- how citizens interact with govern- look back in 10 years and roll our eyes ation, resulting in the bottom-line ments,” said Pat Howard. “From over how poorly we understood AI cost efficiencies of automating work building permits to financial assis- both in terms of the benefits it could previously done by humans. It may tance and health care, citizens provide and the risks it poses.” be time to fundamentally shift our will interact with AI-based virtual Oaulid Ali put it even more starkly: thinking away from the private agents to get their queries answered. “Right now we don’t know if AI sector, and toward labor disinter- Over the next 10 years, as AI tech- will make our future world a utopia mediation in the public sector — nology evolves, chatbots will become or dystopia.” something far less discussed.” smarter, leaving government workers The public sector must prepare That involves numerous possible to solve complex tasks that require for all sorts of impacts of smarter benefits, she said, improving outcomes human interaction or creativity.” AI, said Lawrence Grodeska. in everything from education, health Data goes hand-in-hand with “Governments must confront arti- care and urban management to AI, and governments will have to ficial intelligence to get ahead of border control and disaster response. accelerate their use of data to drive the potentially disastrous effects But governments will also have to decision-making, said Amy Webb. of deepfakes on public discourse confront impacts on the workforce. “Local governments still use too little and science-based policy, as well “We must account for jobs lost in the data to make decisions, automate transition. How will those people workflows, and analyze opportunities be reabsorbed into the economy?” and risks. For example, Baltimore We’ll likely look back Not everyone is that worried about continues to miscalculate water AI’s impact on jobs. The notion of bills — at one point, employees were in 10 years and roll massive unemployment due to auto- simply driving around and making our eyes over how mation is overblown, said Jordan guesses based on how big they Sun. “Human beings are incredible thought a house was and the past poorly we understood survivors, and until our civilization water consumption rates.” Local AI both in terms of the shifts away from work being tied governments should be investing to our individual identity, we will in smart systems, she said. “City benefits it could adapt to new employment oppor- departments make a lot of assump- provide and the risks tunities and thrive along with the

SHUTTERSTOCK.COM tions about citizens. Data would tell automation and AI trends,” he said. it poses.” MARIA BOTHWELL

16 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 17 OLDER AND OLDER One of the biggest challenges will be the continually aging population. This will change the service mix, the requirements that cities need, and of course the shifting tax bases as retirees leave and migrate from tax-burdened cities to lower taxes and warmer climates. Governments will have to figure out how to deliver cost-effective services— and what services to cut. RAY WANG

One of the major emerging trends is a rising public urgency Government will shrink and we will have a set of surrounding climate not-for-profits that will augment traditional city services. These change — one that is spreading quickly and not-for-profits will be leaner, more agile and able to adapt to globally. We refer to this as emerging issues residents care about that traditional government “enviralism.” More socially conscious people, partic- organizations are either unaware of or too slow to resolve. JORDAN SUN ularly millennials and Gen Zers, are joining grassroots movements and rallying around environmental and political causes. At the local level, enviralism could ultimately have a direct impact on urban design and housing. Ultimately, real meaningful political action around climate change is still lacking We have asked police This has already started if the individual doesn’t — from politicians and voters alike. While climate to do too much of what in some places. There post a bond they will stay change has been cast must be a better way to in jail at least overnight. they are not trained as the issue of our times, to provide. We will shift process intake and release That’s another $250 per it still lags the economy, noncriminal, nonviolent of individuals faster and person. A parking ticket can health care, tax reform issues to people with skills safer. In fact, the entire quickly turn into $5,000 of and immigration in getting for helping others transition booking process and lost revenue for a county attention from political to self-sustaining progress. moving of individuals and a criminal record for leaders. Governments We’ll have social workers needs to be automated. an unassuming individual. and policymakers will instead of police showing This isn’t just better from There are just so many be increasingly charged up to handle homelessness, a moral standpoint; it will processes and services with responding to school discipline, housing save governments money. around criminal justice and addressing public enviralism, particularly security and other issues. We send sheriffs to people’s that are ripe for massive when this issue has the Meanwhile, on the criminal homes to arrest them when disruption. Ninety-nine power to swing future justice side, we’ll see a a parking ticket goes unpaid. percent of criminal justice elections and reshape transformation of courts, That costs a county more work is done on paper. It’s purchasing decisions. jails, probation and parole. than $1,500 to execute, and embarrassing. BRIAN ELMS ERICA ORANGE

16 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 17 THE FUTURISTS

STAYING SMART ON CYBER We have made such great strides in getting state and local governments to prioritize cybersecurity over the past 10 years. My concern as revenues fall is that security budgets will be cut. Ransomware and the threats from nation-states are increasing to a crippling level. If we don’t increase international and U.S. internal collaboration to make cybercrime less lucrative, our states and cities will be decimated by the costs. The digital threats will continue to grow, so we can’t let our guard down. KRISTIN JUDGE

My main concern is keeping data legislation in the next few years. It is privacy as an important focus as not for lack of effort: Individual states, we face serious budget impacts and including Washington, have made staff decreases. The rapid changes attempts at following in California’s required by the pandemic — including footsteps with the Consumer Privacy increasing volumes of data collection Act of 2018. As these have struggled and working securely within a virtual to find support, we continue to environment — will become business need legislation that establishes as usual as residents become accus- common data privacy protections. tomed to the accessibility and flexibility As a nation, we are leaders in WHAT’S THE ONE these changes are bringing now. technology, and we should also have I am very hopeful that we will see a leadership position in data privacy INNOVATION YOU’D action on federal privacy protection protection. GINGER ARMBRUSTER INVENT IF YOU COULD?

“Transporter technology a la Star Trek. I think this would be the best to solve travel and transport, carbon emissions and traffic.”RAY WANG

“Teleportation? ” GABE KLEIN

“Teleportation! I’d never have to parallel park again.” GINGER ARMBRUSTER

BIG TECH GOES FARMING

Some of the world’s biggest tech companies — Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart — are getting into agriculture, and that impacts lots of communities around the U.S. Microsoft launched a multi-year plan to modernize agriculture with data analytics, and is piloting a program already on two U.S. farms in which Microsoft has invested. Walmart is opening its own meatpacking plants and dairy processing facilities in an effort to drive down costs. Meanwhile, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos has

SHUTTERSTOCK.COM invested in vertical farming. AMY WEBB

18 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 19 Right now, we can plot three watchdogs, greater corruption, different plausible futures for less trust in government and lower where we’ll be in 2030, depending government bond ratings. Local and on the choices we make today. state budget deficits further impact First, there’s the visionary future, in our most marginalized, and we which we use this crisis to reimagine, see more community mergers and try new stuff and take a proactive regional governments. Climate change approach to what’s coming. In this re-enters the lexicon as a top threat scenario, we see a lot of re-shoring of to local and state government, and manufacturing and science jobs, a new leaders work collaboratively outside Office of the Future at the federal and of government structures to share Our voting system is incredibly state levels whose job it is to antic- best practices, socialize costs, and ripe for disruption. If governments ipate and plan for disruptions, and try to mitigate or deal with climate moved their records to a blockchain, a revamped education system that change. The theme here is that bad we could dramatically improve the requires two years of post-high school stuff keeps coming for a decade voting process by ensuring that every for all American students. We get a and we somehow find a way to deal vote is counted while simultaneously program akin to the Works Progress with it, although it’s not holistic. cutting down on voter fraud. It could Administration that puts people to Then there’s the challenging also make voting much easier, removing work and rebuilds our failing roads, future. The theme here is “slipping the need for people to manually queue bridges, airports and other infra- backwards.” America continues to up at a polling station. If we can shop structure. And we see state univer- be pitied by other countries as our online, why shouldn’t we be able to sities return to their mission of serving brokenness in public health, public vote online, too? Especially if we’re the public by using best practices education and the tragedy of the able to use blockchain to make digital from a hybrid learning environment commons causes us to slip even voting fairer and more tamper-proof of online and on-campus classes. more noticeably behind. We try to than the existing system. It’s socially The expectable future has deeper use the same old tricks to combat distanced, too! EMMANUEL FOMBU partisanship, more corporate money this, but without innovation and a in state and local races, fewer shared agenda, it’s just a giant game local newspapers to act as ethical of whack-a-mole. REBECCA RYAN

WATCHFUL EYES THE GIG ECONOMY GETS GIGGIER Most state government Prior to the pandemic, the trend toward freelance work was growing year over year — 23 entities have not established percent to 34 percent and moving into the 40s. The pandemic has accelerated this trend: It’s an Insider Threat program. possible that over 50 percent of the U.S. workforce will never return to a traditional Employee monitoring will job. This doesn’t mean people won’t be working. However, what we define as work and employment relationships, how they are taxed, and what entrepreneurship’s role is in be a risk mitigation step to our society will change. Much of this is related to the Internet of Things and ubiquitous manage the confidentiality, connectivity. Once everything is smart — and even more importantly, is on blockchain — there integrity, and availability is no more need for bureaucracy, middlemen or human beings to perform large portions of what of systems and data. the government does for society administratively. ELATIA ABATE MARIA THOMPSON

We need to rethink City Hall. The whole method of meetings and permits needs to be rethought because it’s not making great places for people to live, work and play. It’s wasteful; it’s slow; and it’s too insular. City halls are like museums – in fact, many city halls and state capitols might make excellent museums. CINDY FREWEN

18 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 19 THE FUTURISTS The AN ONLINE TRAFFIC JAM Future The single biggest challenge that state and local governments will face over the next decade will be meeting the unprecedented volumes of web traffic based on citizen demand for digital of the government. This will require a renewed focus on emerging technologies for government use. As an IT nerd at heart, this is an Internet exciting time to be leading the way in the technology space. ERVAN RODGERS A Q&A with

Citizens will have a much more particular public health nurse. high-touch engagement with Every interaction with anybody government. Every interaction who’s on the government payroll — we have is going to be saved and police, fire, social services, schools, Vint Cerf logged and fully transparent. I’ll public health, transit. have an ongoing stream of conver- We’ve come to expect and You helped create the Internet. sations that I can tap into with assume this from the private How do you see it evolving over the elected and appointed officials sector, and soon we will expect and next 10 years? in my jurisdiction — at the street assume it with our government. The biggest trends right now are disin- level, neighborhood level, borough This will empower citizens to formation and bad actors — people level or citywide. I’ll have access to know that, if you need something who want to harm others and interfere the entire virtual history of these from Public Works, you want to with other countries’ infrastructure and interactions. deal with this specific woman elections. All these problems that are And we’ll be able to rate who’s in that particular office caused by a global and open Internet every interaction we have with on Monday through Thursday, are going to shape the Internet over government. Just like we can because she’s the highest rated. It the next decade, as countries try to rate our local bar on our phones, could affect the way that employee respond. Some will be responding because I want to hold my phone up next is evaluated by her supervisor, how they want to protect their citizens, to a bus and rate my experience that supervisor is evaluated or and some will be responding because with that particular bus driver. Or even how that agency is budgeted. they want to protect their regimes. that particular policeman. Or that GORDON FELLER So we’ll see more things like we’ve seen with China creating firewalls and blocking and filtering various systems. It’s a pity: I think the value of the free flow of information has been enor- mously demonstrated. But as countries try to respond to these bad behaviors, YOUR OWN DIGITAL ID the result will be a fragmentation and A unique digital identity for citizens could enable disruption of Internet global connectivity. dramatic leaps in service quality and drive financial and What other technologies will social inclusion by providing citizens access to seamless have the biggest impact? services in health care, education and other government 5G will probably be the most significant benefit programs. Citizens will have to share their — but not because it’s faster and all information only once. A single digital identifier-based the hype around that. What is actually system can then kick in and elevate the experience of important, and alarming, is that the citizens by anticipating their needs and personalizing interface to the 5G system is going to public services. Already, countries like Estonia and leach control away from the Internet Layer Austria are proactively serving their citizens without Protocol, which has been the egalitarian waiting for them to apply for services. PAT HOWARD component of the Internet, and it is going to introduce a bunch of mechanisms that SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

20 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 21 not only will potentially invade privacy but will also tend to cut the Internet up into little narrow slices with different functionalities. That interface is very troublesome from my point of view. 5G isn’t the only way we’re fragmenting the network. What about the Internet of Things? I’m very nervous about the IoT space. I used to joke that the thing I worry about most is a headline that says, you know, “100,000 Refrigerators Attack Bank of America.” I used to think that was funny, but it isn’t funny anymore because that’s exactly what’s happening [with webcams and other IoT devices]. Many of these devices are fairly inex- pensive — we’re talking tens of dollars — so there isn’t a huge investment by the makers in securing the software. There are bugs all over the place. I’m very worried about access control and safety and security. I am convinced we will expe- rience a number of bad things as a result of IoT devices that have bugs in them. There’s a huge amount of work to be done. Who will feel responsibility for that? Will it be the cities and the states and the federal government? Will it be the companies? I think legislation and regulation will be needed to hold orga- nizations accountable for the products and services they build and offer. We don’t yet see enough accountability. Do you see any lessons learned so far from the pandemic? The coronavirus has basically forced us into online interaction, and I think that’s not going to go away even after the pandemic goes away. With government, there will be an increased attempt to deliver digital access to services. But that’s going to be very dependent on high-quality identification. Two-factor or other strong identification is going to be essential, and that implies there’s going to have to be some common standardization involving strong authentication tech- niques. States and cities are going to have to mandate certain requirements for the tools and software that people use to interact with the government. WIKIPEDIA

20 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 21 THE FUTURISTS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES EVERYWHERE…

Driverless tech will be the most disruptive innovation in history, according to futurist Thomas Frey. A single autonomous car will replace 30 traditional cars, he predicts, and by 2030 fewer than four million autonomous vehicles (AVs) will have replaced 50 percent of all traffic in the U.S. “Car ownership,” Frey said, “will soon become a very expensive hobby.” The shift to AVs will have positive effects — less congestion, less noise, less pollution — as well as negative consequences. Without speeding tickets and parking violations, cities will lose more than half their current revenue streams, Frey said. New York City alone stands to lose more than $2 billion a year in traffic fines. Airports will lose 41 percent of their revenues as parking fees disappear, and the health-care autonomous vehicles was what got me industry could lose more than $500 interested in the future of work to begin billion annually thanks to fewer crashes. with,” she said. “If truck driving is the “Driverless technology will not only most popular job in 26 states in the U.S., be applied to cars, but also tractors, what happens to all those jobs? And what SHUTTERSTOCK.COM trucks, ships, lawnmowers, forklifts, happens to all the ancillary industries water taxis, snowplows, submarines, built up around truck driving? As the drones, trains and even airplanes,” trend toward commercial and consumer Frey said. “It will soon touch the lives use of this technology continues to THE LOOMING TRUST CRISIS of every person on planet Earth.” grow, we will need to figure out what to That will have a major impact on jobs, do with this workforce population and Just as Washington is going said Elatia Abate. “The trend toward all of the others that will be impacted.” through a governance crisis, in the sense that Congress is not very popular, I think it is only a matter of time for local … OR MAYBE NOT. governments to be impacted by this as well. Local governments Not everyone is convinced that driverless tech will be commonplace by 2030. need to make sure they improve “Autonomous vehicles will not be nearly as ubiquitous as industry experts predict,” civic engagement and become said Lawrence Grodeska. “Resolving the moral dilemma of protecting either pedestrians more responsive. Being more or passengers will prove to be far too difficult for most people to feel safe with this technology on the road.” digitally inclusive and leveraging Bob Bennett agrees. “We’ll see some limited autonomous vehicles 10 years from now, digital platforms will be key to but not a majority. The hype around AV is still overblown. To work, it will require a network ensure local governments are of vehicle-to-everything sensors and a supporting digital infrastructure that cities just more responsive and trusted. can’t afford — that’s even more true now because of COVID.” ROBERTO GALLARDO

22 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 23 FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE Books, podcasts, TED Talks and more recommended reading from our futurists

Exponent podcast with Ben Thompson and James Allworth

21 Lessons for the 21st Century BY YUVAL NOAH HARARI

Team Human podcast with Humankind: Douglass Rushkoff A Hopeful History BY RUTGER BREGMAN Follow r/Futurology on Reddit

The Industries of the Future The Future is Faster Than The Longevity Economy BY ALEC ROSS You Think BY JOSEPH F. COUGHLIN BY PETER DIAMANDIS The Wall Street Journal’s AND STEVEN KOTLER WTF?: What’s the Future of Everything podcast Future and Why It’s Up to Us BY TIM O’REILLY The Inevitable: The Age of Living Understanding Machines: How the Twelve Technological Biology Will Build Forces that Will Shape the Next Technology Our Future Revolution BY KEVIN KELLY BY SUSAN HOCKFIELD Shari Davis’ TED Talk: “What if you could help decide The Rise of Big Data how the government Policing: Surveillance, spends public funds Race, and the Future of in your community?” Law Enforcement The Death of BY ANDREW GUTHRIE FERGUSON Expertise BY TOM NICHOLS “The Perils of Short-Termism,” by Richard Fisher on BBC.com

Prediction Machines: “The Unraveling of America: The Simple Economics How COVID-19 Signals the of Artificial Intelligence End of the American Era,” by Wade Davis in Rolling Stone BY AJAY AGRAWAL, JOSHUA GANS AND AVI GOLDFARB Follow @Futurism Future Thinkers podcast with Mike on Instagram Gilliland and Euvie Ivanova

22 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 23 THE FUTURISTS

A DAY IN THE LIFE We asked our futurists to imagine a typical day in 2030.

I will rarely leave my neighborhood. Flights are mostly a thing of the past due to fossil fuel caps, unless I am willing to spend a lot of money for a vacation once a year. Driving is significantly taxed as well — at least for any vehicles that aren’t completely CO2 neutral — so I ride my solar- electric-trike when I run errands locally. Between the existing solar on my house and the new solar and wind co-op coming to my neighborhood, these power all of my needs and technologies. Cloud-based services cost three times what they used to, because they’re powered by solar farms. But with the money I save Personalized information feeds not having to pay office rent, it’s a fair tradeoff. on weather and environment, news, my financial portfolio, I work every day from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m., which is enough to support all public safety and work events pop my basic needs. I spend the rest of the day hanging out with my family up on my flexible display wall and writing. GABE KLEIN in my house. Using eye gestures and brainwave controls, I can drill in on what I need to know. Most of my work is done in I start my morning with my holographic automated online office augmented reality conference assistant, to assess my daily work calendar. I then initiate automated meeting participation with my meeting tool avatar. Using artificial calls, where it feels like all intelligence and replication of my voice and personality, Virtual Me of us are in a room together. attends (and documents) noncritical meetings, along with any I When people do need to go just do not want to attend. I do real work until noon, when I review into the office, they commute notes from the morning meetings to ensure I’m up to speed with the action items assigned to Virtual Me. GINGER ARMBRUSTER in autonomous cars, allowing them to sleep on the way in from

exurbs 100 miles away. RAY WANG SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

24 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 25 TOP HEADLINES / NOV. 1, 2030

Cascadia Secession Plan Could Get Vote Early Next Year CINDY FREWEN AND 3,456 OTHERS SHARED THIS

I have to exercise when I use a Opinion: Why El Paso’s 3D-Printed Neighborhood vehicle to make it accelerate, and Will Be Such a Game-Changer go for a run to generate electricity THOMAS FREY AND 92,345 OTHERS SHARED THIS for my mobile wear. I harvest food off the wall of my apartment. My Miami Mayor Pledges ‘No More Roads’ neighborhood is completely self- Without Full Funding for New Overwater Transit System sufficient in water, food and energy, CINDY FREWEN COMMENTED ON THIS and we trade with other clusters for various goods and services. CINDY FREWEN ‘My Kid’s Robot Could Paint That’: Is A.I. Art Worth the Hype? EMMANUEL FOMBU AND 1,378 OTHERS LIKE THIS

FDA to Launch Investigation After Report Links Implantables to Cancer Risk TANYA WAKES UP AT 5:30 A.M. ON AUGUST 19, KRISTIN JUDGE COMMENTED ON THIS 2030. Her home system is immediately notified, via the implantable health device in her arm, that Boston’s Twin Superstorms Could Top $50B in Damages she’s a little low in calcium and iron. While she gets ready in the bathroom, the smart mirror on 154,935 PEOPLE SHARED THIS her bathroom wall updates her on her daily health status, which is also tracked by her doctor. Opinion: Let Space Tourism Companies Pay Downstairs, she eats breakfast while scanning Cost Overruns for Moon Base her feed of AI-generated news stories. As Tanya thinks about all that’s changing in the RAY WANG, OUALID ALI AND 3,864 OTHERS SHARED THIS world, suddenly her implantable notifies her home system about her increased heart rate. A list of meditation techniques is automatically One-Third of Private Universities Closed in the Past Decade. displayed on her smart screens. Tanya takes Are We Too Late to Fix the College Crisis? some deep breaths and faces the day. MARIA BOTHWELL COMMENTED ON THIS Later, in her home office, she puts on her new brain control interface, which allows her to interact with her computer via her brain waves. ‘Not a Drop Left’: Las Vegas Issues Last Batch Her work is freelance and entirely remote. of New Water Permits to Developers Although she and her teammates are located all over the world, they feel like they are in CINDY FREWEN AND 856 OTHERS SHARED THIS the same conference room due to advanced 4D virtual reality workspace capabilities. Real Truth Party Goes to Washington: First worldwide Tanya works primarily for startups, and she is political party may gain two seats in Congress one of the 200 million freelancers via Globtal. in next week’s election MARIA BOTHWELL, WHO CREATES NARRATIVES LIKE THIS AS PART OF HER SCENARIO PLANNING WORK MARIA BOTHWELL AND 45,785 OTHERS SHARED THIS

With Drone/Human Aerial Collisions up 150% in Seattle For lunch, I grab a liquid shot of protein, Skies, City Eyes New Regs

carbs, fiber, vitamins and caffeine. It’s a GINGER ARMBRUSTER COMMENTED ON THIS small shot but it makes my brain feel full. JORDAN SUN

24 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 25 THE FUTURISTS

There is a growing realization that life events such as child- birth and change in employment status trigger citizens’ need for related services. However, the traditional government service delivery model is based around departments that provide disparate services to citizens. Moving education to remote/online/virtual, while difficult and with arguable Governments are building results, will nonetheless have people questioning the geographic model common digital platforms and using data innovatively to ensure of K-12 public education. If schools are online-enabled with effective citizens don’t have to navigate teaching methods, then why would delivery of the classes be limited to an alphabet soup of agencies only those within a certain geographic area? If students can have access and regulators across local, to subjects not offered at their school or schools with better performance state, and federal jurisdictions. In this approach, everything records, why shouldn’t they have that access? The pandemic and remote rule-based is digitized and schooling — with all of its flaws — has shown that the connection between automated, vastly reducing or education and location can be broken once teaching goes virtual. That eliminating the need for physical interactions. ‘No-stop shop’ is one simple idea could cause a revolution in education. MARIA BOTHWELL a government service delivery model that requires no forms, has an integrated back end, and is proactive or predictive. One way for cities and towns to address resource constraints Data collection, storage and will be to co-create solutions within their regions, with usage evolves to the point other like-cities nationally, with the private sector and where it becomes possible to deliver services in a proactive in some cases, with the federal government. Bespoke or predictive way. For example, solutions are going to be a thing of the past, because if parents in Ireland, Denmark it is good enough for Washington D.C., chances are it and Sweden receive child-care subsidies post-birth without even is good enough for Arlington, Va., and vice-versa. GABE KLEIN having to apply. PAT HOWARD

The urban/rural socioeconomic divide is going to be a huge challenge for cities and states. Many rural areas lack Synthetic biology rid the planet of toxins, steak, grilled to perfection the connectivity to participate in will start to shape destroy cancer cells and — one that’s vegan-friendly, — let alone shape and benefit from the future of waste help mass-produce proteins because it is made from — an increasingly digital society. management, the phar- for our consumption. plant-based proteins. The political power for rural areas is maceutical industry and Imagine a future in which Forward-thinking cities dwindling, and the lack of understanding health care. Synthetic you no longer take medi- and states could decide regarding the interconnectedness of rural and urban areas must be addressed to biology involves creating cation — instead, your cells to build new research help reduce wealth disparity issues in an organism that doesn’t are simply reprogrammed hubs for this work, espe- the future and create a more inclusive already exist in nature, to fight off whatever ails cially if they are already economy that goes well beyond geographic and someday it will help you. Or imagine biting into hubs for complementary DAVID KIDD DAVID boundaries. CONNIE REIMERS-HILD repair defective genes, a thick, juicy Tomahawk industries. AMY WEBB SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

26 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE NOVEMBER 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 FUTURE READY SPECIAL ISSUE 27 Maybe Not By 2030, But… WHAT’S YOUR WILDEST PREDICTION?

Human augmentation. Personal data Smart toilets will One in four adults and genomics be on the market, in the U.S. has some form are made a property designed to track human The average person isn’t aware of of disability, along with one right. This means that waste and hydration how much data they’re shedding. billion people around the citizens take back control levels, to provide world. Human augmentation of their privacy data early warning signs Collectively, our homes are starting — whether affecting brain and can choose not to of digestive problems to produce digital emissions, which activity, limb functions or share the data, donate or medical conditions. includes all the data not actively used something else — will be a the data to a charity like and processed by devices. Bits of EMMANUEL FOMBU game changer to achieve the American Cancer information in that network include a new level of inclusion, Society, or monetize things like your body temperature as Successful longevity economic productivity their data and be paid you watch TV, the ambient hums and technologies will and quality of life. for that data when its creaks that your home makes at night, extend human life expectancy and the communication pings your JORDAN SUN being utilized. RAY WANG to 150 years. OUALID ALI devices make. Digital emissions aren’t harmful to the environment, but they’re Bikes and small Arts taxes. Arts and culture programs are going to be an untapped resource to be mined and velomobiles will decimated by the pandemic. Local cities and states are going analyzed — with transparency and outsell cars. GABE KLEIN to create taxes to support the arts and culture of a city. BRIAN ELMS permissions, of course. AMY WEBB

WHERE DO WE NEED LOCAL GOVERNMENTS THAT CAN REACT WE GO FROM QUICKLY TO CHANGES AND WORK IN CREATIVE AND HUMAN-ORIENTED WAYS HERE? TO IMPROVE THE LIVES OF OUR RESIDENTS.

The challenges of 2020 worldwide local governments that can react When I think of a future that have highlighted the impact and quickly to changes and work in I am excited about, one of the importance of local government. In creative and human-oriented ways elements is a flexible model of local the United States, local and state to improve the lives of our resi- government that can handle ambi- governments have led the way in dents. We need innovation in our guity and that is designed to be dealing with a global pandemic thinking about what local government creative and explicitly anti-racist. in every sense, from the over- actually is and what it does. We need to think big. Bigger than we whelming public health chal- This innovation isn't simply have ever thought about what it means lenges to the generation-long a question of using technology, to be Citizens of the World. We need to impacts of systemic racism. At though certainly technology will realize that bureaucracy is something the same time, however, these probably be part of the solution. that we build; it doesn't just happen to very challenges have highlighted This is a problem for how we choose us. We have chosen to build slow and the need to rethink and redesign to organize local government. Are cumbersome institutions that frequently and rebuild local government we talking about traditional patri- make life worse, especially for those in a way that is consonant with archal hierarchical models that whose voices are heard the least. the times in which we live. privilege the few at the top of the Our system of government is our Increasingly, we face challenges hierarchy? Or are we trying to greatest invention. It’s time that we that require us to be flexible and build an approach to governing realize that and take responsibility resilient in the face of past failures our cities that is born out of for how it works — and for changing in a changing world. We need empathy and respect and care? the way it works. NIGEL JACOB

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