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Home , Amir Ohana, Benny Gantz, Zvi Hauser

Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, April 21

Headlines: ● Political Stalemate Ends with Coalition Deal Signed ● Netanyahu Can Now Swing Right or Left on Annexation ● Jewish Groups Warn of Annexation in Wake of Unity Deal ● AG to Okay Invasive Surveillance Measures to Fight COVID ● Abbas Eases Virus Lockdown, Warns Against Annexation ● Softening of Ultra-Orthodox Enlistment Law in Unity Deal ● Thousands Join Virtual March of the Living Memorial Project ● Coronavirus Death Toll up to 181, Cases to 13,883

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “A Late Marriage” − By Nahum Barnea

● Ma’ariv: “The Government of 36 Ministers” − By Ben Caspit

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts April 21, 2020 Times of Political Stalemate Ends with Coalition Deal Signed Prime Minister and Blue and White chairman signed a coalition deal during a meeting Monday evening, bringing to an apparent end a nearly year-and- a-half-long political stalemate. A joint statement from Blue and White and Netanyahu’s party said the agreement was to form a “national emergency government,” apparently to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. “The prime minister pledged that he will continue to uphold the principles of the national camp and the right-wing bloc within the unity government.” The deal is expected to be signed formally after Independence Day next week, after which the other right- wing parties would sign on to it. The emerging coalition is then expected to move forward with legislation to cement the premiership rotation agreement that will see Gantz take over from Netanyahu as prime minister after 18 months. See also ‘‘ Threatens to Stay out of Coalition’’ (Jerusalem Post).

Jerusalem Post Netanyahu Can Now Swing Right or Left on Annexation In a strange way, Blue and White Party head Benny Gantz might have just given his political arch-rival Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a life-line when it comes to diplomatic legacy and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The deal between the two men on Monday night didn’t just end the 17 months of electoral turmoil, during which Israel endured a historic, never-before-seen cycle of three back-to-back elections. It has also possibly saved the Trump administration’s peace deal, by rescuing Netanyahu from what was shaping up to be a suicidal choice between the Israeli Right or the US President. With regard to the former, Netanyahu could have lost his political base and possibly his government. With the latter, he could have lost the support of his chief diplomatic ally, US President . See also ‘‘Unity Deal Allows PM to Begin Advancing Annexation from July 1’’ (Times of Israel).

Ha’aretz Jewish Groups Warn of Annexation in Wake of Unity Deal Jewish organizations in the U.S. welcomed Monday the agreement between Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to form a government but warned against annexing parts of the West Bank the deal could lead to. The agreement allows Netanyahu to bring a bill to apply Israeli sovereignty over settlements in the West Bank for a vote as of July. The Union for Reform Judaism, the largest Jewish organization in North America, said in a statement: “We are heartened that Israel has a new government. We wish Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and MK Benny Gantz success in dealing with the coronavirus crisis and offer our partnership toward a better future for all.”

2 News AG to Okay Invasive Surveillance Measures to Fight COVID Attorney-General is set to increase the involvement of the security service in the national effort against coronavirus. He will approve more invasive civilian surveillance measures to allow more accurate mapping of infection hotspots and health officials to conduct epidemiological reports quicker and more efficiently. Mandelblit is expected to announce the new measures ahead of a government meeting that will address the issue in the coming days, as the Shin Bet's current remit to digitally track potential coronavirus carriers expires at the end of the month. The government plans to grant the security agency an extension and introduce new and more intrusive surveillance measures. Mandelblit will head a team that will oversee the Shin Bet's activity under strict regulatory conditions. The Knesset Subcommittee for Secret Services will also be required to monitor and supervise all operations.

Times of Israel Abbas Eases Virus Lockdown, Warns Against Annexation Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday ordered an easing of some of the lockdown measures that have been applied in the West Bank as part of efforts to contain an outbreak of the coronavirus among the Palestinian population. Abbas, speaking during a weekly cabinet meeting held via videoconference, did not specify what virus restrictions would be lifted, but ordered the government to ease some of the lockdown orders in the run-up to the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins Thursday evening. During the cabinet meeting Abbas also warned the US and Israeli governments against taking any steps to annex parts of the West Bank while Palestinians are distracted by the virus outbreak, saying that if Israel announces an annexation bid the PA will take “immediate measures,” See also ‘‘Palestinians Decry Netanyahu-Gantz Deal, Warn ‘Annexation’ Ends Peace Deal’’ (Jerusalem Post).

Jerusalem Post Softening of Ultra-Orthodox Enlistment Law in Unity Deal The coalition agreement between Likud and Blue and White includes a clause which will soften proposals made during the last government to increase ultra-Orthodox enlistment to the IDF. The clause states that while legislation drafted by the Defense Ministry during the course of the 34th government will be advanced in the new Knesset, targets for ultra-Orthodox men will be determined by the government and not in the legislation itself. This has given rise to concerns that the enlistment targets will be set deliberately low by the government, which will include the and ultra-Orthodox parties, in order to avoid any of the financial sanctions to the general yeshiva budget set out in the bill. This government must pass a new law to regulate government efforts to increase the numbers of ultra-Orthodox men serving in the IDF, and secure exemptions for the majority who will still not serve, since the High Court of Justice struck down the previous arrangement in 2017.

3 Jerusalem Post Thousands Join Virtual March of the Living Memorial Project Thousands of people from around the world, including children, teens and adults, have in the past day, uploaded virtual memorial messages to a special memorial site established by the March of the Living organization. The site was inaugurated yesterday by President and was created because of the cancellation of the March due to the Corona epidemic that had been scheduled to take place next week on Holocaust Remembrance Day. The virtual plaques were written in memory of Holocaust victims and in honor of , and include messages stressing the need to fight antisemitism and racism wherever they are found. Within the past 24 hours virtual plaques have been posted from Israel, the , the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Switzerland, Canada, Colombia, Uruguay, Belgium, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, South Africa, Holland, , Poland, New Zealand, Venezuela, Spain, Belarus, Venezuela, Panama and Brazil.

Ynet News Coronavirus Death Toll up to 181, Cases to 13,883 As of Tuesday morning, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Israel stands at 13,883, with 181 patients have succumbed to the disease, health officials confirmed. A 48-year-old man with no underlying health conditions died from complications related to coronavirus, Ichilov Hospital in confirmed Tuesday morning. The patient had been transferred to the Tel Aviv hospital from Mayanei Hayeshua Medical Center in Bnei Brak over the weekend after his condition deteriorated. He is a resident of Bnei Brak and is survived by a wife and 14 children. Of the latest number, 142 patients are in serious condition, including 113 in need of ventilator support. At least 135 patients are in moderate condition and 9,072 have mild symptoms. The number of Israelis who have recovered from the virus now stands at 4,353. The number of recoveries has now exceeded the number of new diagnoses for the sixth day in a row. There are currently 521 coronavirus patients receiving treatment in hospitals while 6,620 people are fighting the virus at home.

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – April 21, 2020 A Late Marriage By Nahum Barnea ● There are two ways of judging the agreement that forms the fifth Netanyahu government. One way is to compare the clauses of the agreement to the promises that both sides made to their voters in their campaigns. Netanyahu promised to serve as prime minister and kept that promise; he promised a majority in favor of annexation of the West Bank and kept that promise; he promised that the right wing would control the Judges Selection Committee and kept that promise; he promised to remove the fear of the High Court of Justice from his shoulders and, in practice, kept that promise; he promised his Haredi partners to let the military draft sham continue and kept that promise. The results are less stellar when one reviews Gantz’s promises. Gantz promised not to serve under Netanyahu and didn’t keep that promise; he promised to change the nation-state law and didn’t keep that promise; he promised to make any act of annexation contingent upon international consent and didn’t keep that promise; he promised to bodily defend the justice system and didn’t really keep that promise; he promised that the High Court of Justice hearing on Netanyahu’s fitness to serve would be free from political threat and didn’t keep that promise. ● In all that pertains to weakening democracy and the justice system, decimating the alternative to his continued rule, the future of the territories and the future of the High Court of Justice the grade Netanyahu deserves is a 90. What grade does Gantz deserve? Once upon a time, exceptionally challenged pupils used to find the following line written in their report card: “you have graduated into the second grade, but not at our school.” A second way of judging this agreement is to look at it through the eyes of the one million Israelis who are out of work: who got more jobs and who got fewer. Netanyahu arrived at the negotiating table with 58 or 59 seats behind him—the entire right wing. Gantz arrived with between 17 and 20 depending what ultimately happens with the Labor Party. Gantz’s side received the same number of appointments as the other side did, with 16 seats at the cabinet table, and another two cabinet appointments for both sides in another six months. He received the defense portfolio and the foreign affairs portfolio temporarily, and a slew of less enticing portfolios. He received the title of deputy prime minister and a promise to alternate as prime minister, if and when. ● The Likud got screwed in terms of appointments. It will have to share the 16 cabinet posts (18 in another six months) with the Haredim and possibly with Yamina as well. It will be unable to push through any legislation that is redolent of partisan goals in the first six months, with the exception of legislation about annexation. In terms of political appointments, the grade Gantz deserves is at least an 80. What grade does Netanyahu deserve? The answer is complicated. Netanyahu’s goal in the negotiations wasn’t to guarantee jobs for the Likud’s MKs. His goal was to guarantee his own job. In that sense, he chalked up an impressive achievement. If Gantz were a corrupt man, the agreement he reached could have been viewed as a huge achievement, an historic success. But Gantz isn’t a corrupt man and his party, at the current stage of its existence, isn’t corrupt either.

5 With that being the case, the party has nothing to show its voters and is empty-handed. Gantz told his close associates that relative to the demands that Netanyahu initially made, the final outcome qualifies as a success. Maybe. In the final tally he’s found himself in a bad situation. ● Good intentions don’t help much in political negotiations. Gantz drew red lines only to cross them. The feeling in the negotiating room was that everything had been sewn up in advance in understandings that were reached between Ashkenazi and Deri and between Ronen Tzur as Gantz’s representative and Motti Sander as Netanyahu’s representative. The advisers who should have helped Gantz left over time Yoram Turbowicz left a month ago and Shalom Shlomo left two weeks ago. That left . It isn’t difficult to envision how things are going to play out in the new government. It will begin with an abundant display of mutual respect. Then the right-wing ministers and the right-wing factions in the Knesset will begin to pummel Blue and White’s ministers into submission. The online bully from Balfour Street [presumably referring to Yair Netanyahu] will make his own contribution to the effort. Gantz in the Defense Ministry, ● Ashkenazi in the Foreign Ministry and Nissenkorn in the Justice Ministry will wage low- key holding actions. Their patriotism will be called into question. There is no glory in holding actions and there aren’t any voters in them either. They’ll arrive on the cusp of the alternating premiership out of breath. Will Gantz ultimately replace Netanyahu? Very few people in the political establishment believe that he will. In the course of the negotiations Deri and other Haredi MKs tried to persuade Gantz that they would be his silent partners at the cabinet. After all, they are known for their moderate positions on the territories and foreign policy issues. They are also known for their belief in the proper rules of governance; they won’t let Netanyahu disavow the alternating premiership agreement. I wouldn’t advise Gantz to put much faith in that. Shas’s voters are more loyal to Netanyahu than the Likud voters are. Deri will be hard put to rebel against them. ● Immediately after signing the agreement, Gantz rushed off to the Knesset to fulfil his role as speaker at the Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony. Had he had a free moment he could have watched the ceremony that was broadcast from Yad Vashem and could have learned something about the sense of grandeur that possesses the man under whom he is now going to serve. Netanyahu said in his speech that the coronavirus couldn’t be compared to the Holocaust, but he nevertheless drew a comparison between the two. “Unlike in the Holocaust,” he said, “this time we identified the danger in time.” The Holocaust and the coronavirus and the first to identify. It doesn’t look like our Benny is in for an easy time.

6 Ma’ariv – April 21, 2020 The Government of 36 Ministers By Ben Caspit ● I’m envious of people who are certain. The people who are sure that the government of 36 (!) ministers that Netanyahu and Gantz have formed is either a disgrace and an enduring moral stain on the Jewish people or the very opposite: the Israeli public’s path to salvation from all its ills. The people who are certain that Bibi folded Gantz like an origami artist, crushed him with a steamroller, diced him into tiny pieces and stuffed him into a pita; or people who are certain that Gantz scored a major coup by securing 16 ministerial portfolios for 17 MKs and an historic first-ever expiration date for the Netanyahu family. I am not embarrassed to say that I am at a discomfited loss between those two polar opposites, and meekly admit that only history will be the judge on this issue. The precedent-setting ruling will be handed down in another 18 months. If Gantz takes possession of the Prime Minister’s Residence on Balfour Street or, in other words, the Israeli prime minister’s second official state residence that will be an incredible achievement, even if it isn’t final. Only if he succeeds in putting down a stake there and marking the end of the era of the family that spread rot through a party and through an entire country will that be an historic achievement. ● In the meantime, one can certainly describe this government as the most obtuse, inflated and out-of-touch government ever to have been formed in Israel. Thirty-six ministers and 16 deputy ministers at a time in which more than a million Israelis have lost their jobs, millions of others are worried about whether they will be able to put food on the table in another month, and Israel finds itself stuck in the deepest economic pit ever known in the modern era. The fact that Netanyahu and Gantz were even capable of considering forming a monstrosity of this kind at the current juncture in time is proof of the moral nadir we have reached in the Netanyahu era. He formed a government on a similar scale to achieve “stability” back in 2009, didn’t he? So are another three or four cabinet ministers going to break our back? And no, I’m not clearing Gantz of his responsibility for this disgrace. But he, as opposed to Netanyahu, has mitigating circumstances. He isn’t the conductor on this shameful train. He’s only hitching a ride on it. ● The real story is hidden in the “residence clause.” As we all recall, after being defeated by in 1999, the Netanyahu family had a hard time leaving the official state residence on Balfour Street. It took several months to disconnect the Mistress from the residence, and immoderate physical pressure was required to pry her grip, finger by finger, egg by egg, ashtray by ashtray (each one was wrapped separately in bubble wrap) until they finally left. This time, after more than 20 years, it was clear that no natural force and no man-made tool exists that might be capable of performing that mission impossible. She has to stay—otherwise, there’s no deal. A few weeks ago, one of the members of Blue and White’s cockpit raised the following idea: why force them to leave the residence on Balfour Street? It is going to be impossible to remove them from Balfour Street, so let’s decide that they get to stay on Balfour Street forever, even if Netanyahu is found guilty in his trial and is sent to prison. It’s easy: we’ll encircle Balfour

7 Street with a high barbed wire fence, replace the GSS bodyguards with Prisons Service guards and mission accomplished. ● Following is the clause, word for word: “Furthermore, new statutes will be instated regarding the security of the alternative prime minister and issues that stem from that, such as housing and office arrangements and everything that derives directly and indirectly from that, when none of that detracts at all from the fact that once the alternative prime minister and deputy prime minister becomes prime minister, he will be prime minister for all intents and purposes, including the prime minister’s housing arrangements and everything that derives from that, and the prime minister, who becomes the alternative prime minister and the deputy prime minister, will be entitled to all of the conditions that are given to the deputy prime minister.” I’d suggest we put that clause to music and sing it three times a day. The story is simple: All this was designed to allow her to continue to live in a house that is fully paid for by the state, to continue to bully the staff, to keep on a full staff of secretaries, to continue to travel in an armed convoy that is surrounded by bodyguards, drones and sycophants and, if my guess is right, to continue to force the state to shoulder a significant chunk of the cost of maintaining their private villa in Caesarea. Because without that it’s no dice. That is a brief history of the lunacy. ● Why did Netanyahu sign the agreement? For two cumulative reasons: he knows that the economic situation is truly dire. He knows that there isn’t a magic trick he can perform that will be able to extinguish the raging forest fire that is tearing through the Israeli economy. He needs someone on whom he can foist some of the blame. That’s what they invented Gantz for. The second reason is that it became absolutely clear to him in the last few days that he has no way of forming a narrow government. With the exception of the most inflated human balloon in history (Orly Levy-Abekasis), no one else was willing to join. Netanyahu sent to meet with his nemesis, Gideon Saar, asking him to put out feelers to . Saar and Hauser are old friends. Neither one of them was willing to offer any comment on this story (which is accurate). I suspect that Hauser received unimaginable offers (deputy prime minister, the king’s squire, the secretary general of the Israel Scouts and an official state residence) in hope of persuading him to defect, along with his twin, . Those offers were met with absolute refusal. Hauser and Hendel also received a promise from Gantz that he would guarantee them a slot on Blue and White’s list if they stood by him and didn’t defect. That was a crucial political move. Ultimately, the dynamic duo, who were thrown out of the Prime Minister’s Bureau seven years ago, are now back. ● Netanyahu realized that the choice came down to either new elections or a unity government. He was smart enough not to believe the current polling numbers, and he sat down with his board of directors and painstakingly persuaded the other two members of the board, who are more senior than he, and signed the agreement. The fact that he signed doesn’t mean anything, incidentally. There are countless landmines and temptations that are still going to be encountered along the way until a new government is sworn in. Petitions to the High Court of Justice, cold feet, excuses, new adventures and so on. But at least Netanyahu signed. The very fact that he signed an agreement that 8 cites a specific date on which he stops being prime minister (and becomes deputy prime minister and the alternative prime minister) is a major event. ● Gantz has come under industrial quantities of criticism and calumny in the past few weeks. He certainly came by some of that honestly. But he got what he wanted, even if he did have to swallow a bitter pill. What will that give him at the end of the day? Only time will tell. In the meantime, he chalked up quite a few achievements: an end to the lunacy surrounding the justice system. Yes, Netanyahu has veto power over reforms and appointments, but at least the justice portfolio has been pried free from ’s clutches and the fleet of bulldozers that was about to be dispatched to the Supreme Court building has been turned around. A large group of shameless sycophants and yes- men who assumed positions of power in the government and in other institutions are now going to be sent back to where they belong. The powerful generator that has been noisily rattling in our ear 24/7 for the past few years will now become a bit quieter. That is no mean feat. ● If Gantz becomes Israel’s 13 th prime minister next year, the status of his achievement will be elevated from reasonable to extraordinary. The path to that moment is long. He sat on the patio in the Prime Minister’s Residence yesterday and signed the documents with an upset stomach. If he were to take a shovel and dig in the dirt in the yard, he would have found the bones of all the others who sat in the same seat as he did and believed the festive promises. Gantz is determined to be the first to see the agreement that was signed with him honored. Yes, Gantz the naïf who doesn’t know the first thing about politics; Gantz the calm and hesitant man. If that happens, he’ll have a good laugh at everyone else’s expense. None of this would have happened without the existence of the ruthless alternative posed by Liberman, Lapid and Yaalon. They were the sword to Netanyahu’s neck. They were the nightmare that could have become true. They might prove to be the biggest winners as a result of this 36-minister government. If the agreement collapses, if Netanyahu betrays Gantz or vice-versa, the economy will collapse and the flames will rage, poising Lapid and Liberman in a perfect position to surge forward. They were the ones who kept their word, who withstood the temptation, who refused to bow. And if not, then not. ● Another two people deserve a kind word as well. Some of my readers might want to kill me, but Yoaz Hendel and Zvi Hauser withstood incredible pressure in the past few weeks. Pressure was first applied from the left to have them vote in favor of a minority government with the Arabs in order to decapitate Bibi. Then pressure was applied from the right, to allow a right-wing government to be formed. They didn’t bow and kept their word. Even though I would be very pleased had a government been formed with the support of the from outside the coalition (if only to prove that the sun would nevertheless rise the following day), Hauser and Hendel said the entire time that they were opposed, and they kept their word. They said they would remain faithful to their ideology come hell or high water, and that is what they did. Things reached a peak moment when Blue and White fell apart, and Hauser was going to present himself as a candidate for Knesset speaker if Gantz didn’t present himself. That was a private initiative by Hauser and Hendel to prevent from being elected. They believed 9 that Cohen’s election as Knesset speaker would torpedo any chance of a unity government being formed. At the last moment Gantz did put himself forward as a candidate, and Hauser shelved his initiative. As of yesterday, they achieved their stated goal. But, as I wrote here earlier, history will be the ultimate judge of them and all of us.

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