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Home , Benny Gantz, Yehoram Gaon, Yehudah Glick

Israel and Middle East News Update

Friday, December 4

Headlines: ● Katz to Meet with Gantz in Bid to Stave off Elections ● Announces Run for President ● May Get COVID Shots This Month, Start Vaccinating ● Israel Urges Citizens to Avoid Gulf, Cites Iran Threat ● Ashkenazi Meets Jordanian Counterpart ● Gantz Urges Palestinians to Return to the Negotiation Table ● Trump, Sisi Discuss Middle East Peace ● Qatar: 'There Are Some Movements' on Gulf Dispute

Commentary: ● : “Everyone is to Blame’’ - By Sima Kadmon

● Ma’ariv: “The Price of Retaliation” - By Alon Ben David

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts December 4, 2020 Times of to Meet with Gantz in Bid to Stave off Elections A day after giving preliminary backing to a bill to dissolve the and call early elections, Defense Minister and Blue & White leader Benny Gantz said that he would meet with Finance Minister Israel Katz () next week in a last-ditch effort to try and avoid elections. “Finance Minister Israel Katz has reached out to Benny Gantz, requesting a meeting to present a budget for 2020-2021. The two are expected to meet next Sunday,” Gantz’s spokesperson said. Blue & White and Likud are reportedly using the time until a final vote to seek a compromise to avert elections, though most analysts believe Israel will return to the ballot box between March and June. If the Knesset dissolution bill isn’t ultimately approved, the government has until 12/23 to pass a 2020 budget or the government will fall and elections will automatically be scheduled for March 2021. See also ‘‘Defiant Gantz Defends Election Bill, Calls for February Vote’’ ( News)

Jerusalem Post Amir Peretz Announces Run for President Labor leader Amir Peretz intends to run for president of Israel in the next round of elections, he said. The other officially announced candidates are former Likud MK and former Labor Party minister Shimon Shetreet. Others who are considering running include Jewish Agency chairman , whose father, Chaim Herzog, was president; - winning educator Miriam Peretz and singer Yehoram Gaon. There has been speculation that Prime Minister Netanyahu could decide to seek the presidency if he does not form the next government, joining as the only men who will have been both prime minister and president. Becoming president would automatically freeze Netanyahu’s criminal trial for the seven years he would be in office and provide a new official residence for him and his family. See also ‘‘Former IDF Chiefs Eisenkot and Ya’Alon Said Weighing Joint Election Run’’ (Times of Israel)

Times of Israel Israel May Get COVID Shots This Month, Start Vaccinating Israel may receive up to four million doses of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine by the end of this month — enough for two million people — and the Health Ministry is preparing health maintenance organizations for the possibility of inoculating some 80,000 Israelis every day, Israeli TV networks reported. Such a development could see up to a fifth of Israel’s population vaccinated by January — a far more optimistic projection than previously assumed. The vaccines may start arriving as early as next week, though they will still not be used as they have not yet received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration, Channel 12 News reported. See also ‘‘Israeli Medical Delegation Enters Gaza to Provide Essential COVID-19 Care’’ (Times of Israel) 2 Ynet News Israel Urges Citizens to Avoid Gulf, Cites Iran Threat Israel urged its citizens to avoid travel to the Gulf states of the UAE and Bahrain, citing threats of Iranian attacks. The travel advisory by the National Security Council (NSC) comes as Iran is threatening to attack Israeli targets following the assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in an attack the Islamic Republic attributes to Israel. Israel has not commented. The travel advisory further warns against travel to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, the Kurdish area of Iraq and Africa. Iran and its proxies have targeted Israeli tourists and Jewish communities in the past. Hezbollah agents bombed a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Burgas, Bulgaria, in 2012, killing six and wounding dozens. Concerns for the safety of Israelis in Dubai also is not without precedent. In 2000, an Israeli ex-colonel was kidnapped by Hezbollah and held captive in until he was released in a prisoner exchange in 2004. See also ‘‘Iran Likely to Hold off on Retaliation Over Scientist's Killing, US Envoy Says’’ (Reuters)

Arutz Sheva Ashkenazi Meets Jordanian Counterpart Foreign Minister met with his Jordanian counterpart Ayman Safadi. The Foreign Ministry confirmed the meeting took place but did not provide further details. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Safadi stressed during the meeting that Israel should halt all its procedures that undermine peace opportunities on the basis of the two-state solution. Safadi also called “for halting all provocations in the Al-Aqsa Mosque/ Al-Haram Al-Sharif in occupied and preserving the legal and historical status quo in holy city, urging Israel to honor its commitments as the occupying power’’. Safadi and Ashkenazi discussed a number of pending issues between the two countries including water, lifting restrictions on Jordanian exports to PA-assigned areas of Judea & Samaria (), enabling Jordan to provide the Palestinian Authority with additional amounts of electric power, and regulating movement through the crossings in light of their closure due to the novel coronavirus.

I24 News Gantz Urges Palestinians to Return to the Negotiation Table Benny Gantz called on the Palestinians to resume to the negotiation table and tighten collaboration with Israel with regards to the coronavirus crisis. In a video uploaded to the page of the IDF spokesperson in Arabic, Gantz addressed the Palestinians in Hebrew -- with Arabic subtitles -- stressing that “The Middle East is changing, it is in your interest to resume negotiations.” The former military chief stipulated that “We will help you with the issue of vaccines -- we will increase enforcement on the non-entry of Israeli citizens into A and B territories [in the West Bank] in coordination with the Palestinian Authority and we will begin sample tests at the crossings.” Gantz further pledged to advance “big” projects in the , such as providing large quantities of work permits, and promoting energy, water and agricultural projects. Relations between Israel and the Palestinians have taken a slight turn recently, after Israel has released more than $1b in funds withheld from the PA. See also ‘‘The PA's Codependence Problem’’ (Ynet News)

3 Jerusalem Post Trump, Sisi Discuss Middle East Peace might become a major actor to further stabilization in the Middle East alongside the US, according to President Trump, as reported by Egyptian media. In a phone call with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Trump commended the fruitful partnership and constructive cooperation between Egypt and the US, Egypt Today reported. Trump also praised the mutual understanding between the two countries on enhancing security and stability in the Middle East. The Egyptian President is looking to host a summit that will bring together PA President and Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss peace between the two sides, according to Israeli sources. Deputy leader of Palestine's movement, said a committee that includes Palestinian, Jordanian and Egyptian officials has been formed to coordinate holding the conference, which the Palestinian public reportedly called for, a separate report by the Middle East Monitor said. The sources added that Netanyahu was seeking "to send positive signals to the new American administration", just one month after Joe Biden has been elected president of the US, succeeding Trump whose relations with Egypt were excellent.

Ha’aretz Qatar: 'There Are Some Movements' on Gulf Dispute Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani said that there has been movement on resolving a bitter diplomatic dispute among the Gulf countries but that he could not predict whether a breakthrough was imminent or would fully resolve the matter. The US and Kuwait have been working to end a row that has seen Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt sever diplomatic, trade and travel ties with Qatar since mid-2017. Washington says it wants a united Gulf front against Iran. The Foreign Minister’s comments to an Italian diplomatic conference come after White House senior adviser Jared Kushner held talks in Doha following a visit to Saudi Arabia. Qatar's Al Jazeera reported it was "close to striking a preliminary agreement" with Saudi Arabia, which gave Qatar a list of 13 demands for reestablishing ties, including cutting links to Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood, closing down Al Jazeera and shutting a Turkish military base. According to a report from Bloomberg News, the Saudi-Qatar deal involves a detailed plan for restoring ties, which is likely to include a reopening of the long-blockaded land and air borders, as well as an end to the information war being waged by the two states. The Bloomberg report adds that the latest rapprochement effort does not include UAE, Bahrain or Egypt. See also ‘‘UAE Envoy: If US Unwilling to Supply Weapons, We’ll Have to Turn Elsewhere’’ (Times of Israel)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – December 4, 2020 Everyone is to Blame By Sima Kadmon ● The opposition chairman lost no time. Yesterday, a day after the vote on the bill to dissolve the Knesset, he called on Blue & White to reunite with . He feels that he has a solid basis for this. In the past weeks he has heard voices in Blue & White calling to return to being the party it was before the split. Furthermore, this is also a matter of national responsibility, which Gantz holds in such high regard. A reunion could create an alternative to the government. In the end, Lapid said to me, Netanyahu has to be replaced. When Gantz led over me by three or four seats, I let him lead, and later on I even waived on alternating with him as leader. This time I am twice his size on my worst day. So this time he’s the one who should set aside his ego in order to bring about a change. ● But in the meantime, it appears that not only is Yesh Atid not merging, it may even split, as Telem Chairman Moshe Yaalon is examining the feasibility of running in a separate party. Yesh Atid-Telem is stuck at 17-19 seats, with a total of 46 seats in the [center-left] bloc, Yaalon said to me last night. If Blue & White joins us in the bloc, it drops to 44. If we continue this way, Yaalon says, there will be a government headed by Bibi with Bennett and the Haredim. The challenge, he says, is to take seats away from this bloc. If we run separately, we may have a chance of doing it, because right wingers can vote for me. This is our only chance to change the government. But we will not make a decision, nor will Eisenkot, before we know for certain that elections will be held. ● Yaalon is right. It is too soon to tell if there will be a change here, and what kind. But the atmosphere in the Knesset on Wednesday was a nightmare. That something inconceivable had happened. One MK said that if felt as if someone had dropped psychedelic mushrooms into the Knesset’s air conditioning system. After three rounds of elections, in the midst of a global health crisis and an unprecedented economic crisis, the Knesset is sending itself to a fourth election within two years. And that is happening while each of the 120 MKs knows deep down inside that the only reason for this is not the budget, nor the problems in the coalition. The only reason the State of Israel is headed to elections is because Netanyahu did not succeed in securing in any other way, for himself and his family, [the conditions] that will ensure that he can continue to hold on to the house on Balfour Street. An alternate prime minister? No way. That will not happen. Not in his house. And certainly not while the legal ax is raised over his head. ● Let every father and mother—who are now struggling with an intolerable economic situation, existential anxiety and lack of hope—know that the vote that led us this week to a scandalous election, which will drain the state treasury of billions more that it does not have, and which will keep their leaders busy with many months of mutual mudslinging— is only because of Netanyahu’s attempt to hold on to his post and his attempt to extricate himself from his trial. This was one of the low points of Israeli politics, one minister said to me. Simply a disgrace. And the responsibility lies with many people. Netanyahu, Gantz, and also Bennett—who could have prevented elections if he had so chosen. 5 ● Bennett talks about the coronavirus, the minister said, but instead of trying to form a government in the present Knesset, he preferred to dissolve the Knesset, because he has a chance to get 20 seats. Each person is sticking to what is convenient for them, and all of them together are taking us to elections at the least suitable time. There is some justification to that. Everyone is to blame. Netanyahu wants a budget as late as possible for political reasons, but Gantz is also insisting, for his own political reasons. True, the most blatant violation of the coalition agreement was made by Netanyahu, but there were also violations by Blue & White. ● And it is true that there were hotheads in the Likud that created a foul atmosphere, and more than a few pyromaniacs, such as Zohar and Amsalem, who were chosen by Netanyahu to reach understandings with Nissenkorn and Ginzburg. It’s like fire and water. Not to speak of Netanyahu himself, who tried to manipulate and exclude Gantz and Ashkenazi, as he did to his partners in the past, Liberman and Bennett. But Blue & White is also to blame, say Likud sources. Members of the party gave interviews against [Netanyahu], encouraged the demonstrations at Balfour Street, insisted on a confrontational justice minister and disregarded the appointments clause of the coalition agreement. From the first moment they tried to have it both ways; both to enjoy the benefit of being in the government and to feel that they were fighting Netanyahu as their constituency expected. ● Ostensibly, it appears that there is nothing left that could convince Gantz to preserve this partnership. If not because of the abuse he suffered since the government was formed, then the speech Netanyahu gave on Wednesday evening should have done the job. We have heard in the past speeches by the prime minister that were filled with distortions, lies and half-truths. But I think that even hard-core Bibi supporters, not to speak of veteran Likudniks, blushed upon hearing this shameless speech. It remains only to rub one’s eyes in astonishment at the description of a reality that did not happen 100 years ago, but rather things that happened just now, in the past months and weeks. Nevertheless, as implausible as this scenario sounds, things may yet change. One of the two, or both of them, may panic at the last moment and decide that they will meet and start anew. And then we will all see that December 23 is not a sacred date, and that it may even be possible to talk about February. ● Contrary to what more than a few people think, Gantz is not the only one for whom elections make no sense. The situation is far from brilliant for Netanyahu too. It is true that he succeeded in stemming the drainage of seats, but it is enough for voters to leave Bennett and return to the center-left bloc, for Lapid to propose to Bennett to form a government with an alternating premiership, or for Bennett to agree to go with Netanyahu but to strip him bare and make him long for Gantz. Next week, Blue & White will probably advance the bill for holding early elections. In theory, they could have already done this on Wednesday—convened the Knesset House Committee while the Knesset plenum was still open and decided which committee will discuss the election committee bill. But they did not bother.

6 ● They’re taking their time. Only on Monday will the House Committee discuss the question of which committee will examine the bill, and there is another lost week. They can also wait for December 23, when the Knesset will dissolve automatically, and try to advance a few initiatives. Judging by what happened this week, nothing great can be expected in this area: On Wednesday, Blue & White was forced to withdraw at the last moment the proposed Basic Law: Equality, which was supposed to be put to a preliminary vote. They learned that MKs Hauser and Hendel, who are headed for , intended to vote against. In any case, whether the bill for dissolving the Knesset is advanced, or the Knesset commits suicide on December 23, the elections will apparently be held in March. Unless [something happens to prevent this].

7 Ma’ariv – December 4, 2020 The Price of Retaliation By Alon Ben David ● “Remote-controlled machine gun,” “satellite-operated weaponry”—as opposed to the image, the Iranians proved this week that their imagination is actually very plentiful. They were unsparing with their descriptions to cover up the embarrassment left by the perfect assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Iran wants to avenge the assassination, but when is sitting on the moving boxes in the White House and has nothing left to lose, it will be careful not to incur his wrath. Perhaps they’ll wait for Pompeo’s last days [in office]. In Israel, in contrast, officials had trouble concealing their satisfaction. Although Israel officially sticks to a policy of deliberate ambiguity, Israeli officials couldn’t restrain themselves and rushed to take responsibility when talking to reporters from . The gloating was gratuitous, but there are good reasons to be pleased: Fakhrizadeh was much more than just another nuclear scientist. He was the key axis of Iran’s military nuclear program, a hub of scientific and organization knowhow who worked directly under the supreme leader and who was supposed to lead Iran to the bomb. It won’t be easy for them to find his replacement. ● The Iranians knew that Fakhrizadeh was in the crosshairs and guarded him accordingly. The assassins relied on profound intelligence abilities and also demonstrated impressive operational capability. This was no operation with two assassins with pistols on a motorcycle, but rather a larger cell of assassins, armed with automatic rifles and a large bomb that stopped the secured convoy. First, they killed the security detail in the three cars, and then they pulled Fakhrizadeh out of the car and performed a kill confirmation. A local infrastructure of collaborators made it possible to exfiltrate them unharmed. Missions like these have relied on foreign fighters for years. ● The days when our fine boys traveled the world with Canadian passports and kibbutz- accented English are over. In the technological world of today, and with a vengeance ever since the coronavirus outbreak, Israelis cannot be deployed to places like Iran on assassination missions. But there are enough former fighters around the world who are thirsty for money and action, and they’ll gladly sign up for operations like these. They don’t always know who they’re working for, and they don’t really care either. A complex operation like the Fakhrizadeh assassination requires training on a model, which usually takes place in a third country. ● Even if the fighters are apprehended, they cannot be linked to Israel. The ones supplying the logistical infrastructure are usually locals, and Iran has no shortage of people who oppose the regime and who will volunteer for an operation for nice financial remuneration.Most of the world wants to forget 2020, but it was particularly bitter for Iran. A year that began with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, then saw the attack on the centrifuges installation in Natanz, the assassination of a senior al-Qaeda official in the heart of Tehran, and now the humiliating assassination of Fakhrizadeh. The Iranians don’t know if this will be the end of this year’s curses, or if more surprises are in store for

8 them. Meanwhile, they’re counting the days left until Trump leaves the White House on January 20. Iran is clearly afraid of Trump and his reactions. ● Two weeks ago, they also saw two American strategic bombers fly over their heads, reminding them of the balance of power. The Iranians did the bare minimum in retaliation for Soleimani’s assassination with a predictable missile attack on bases in Iraq that caused no injuries [sic]. They’re also cautious vis-à-vis Israel, and ever since 2019 they have refrained from firing missiles at Israeli territory despite the serious blows that they sustained in Syria. But now it seems that their bitterness is already overflowing and they’re looking for suitable revenge. Iran would love to launch a barrage of precision- guided cruise missiles and drones against Israel, and particularly on Dimona, in the form of the attack that they committed on the Saudi oil facilities about a year ago. The Iranians have limited capabilities of launching an attack like that from Yemen, western Iraq or eastern Syria, but they are afraid of Israeli retaliation, which is why they are looking for a way to retaliate that will fit the equation that Israel can contain. ● Blowing up an embassy like in in 1992 is something that the world no longer accepts with understanding. Whoever commits international terrorism nowadays is immediately branded like ISIS or al-Qaeda and is dealt with accordingly. Iran would rather make a pinpoint strike on an Israeli figure, but in the age of the coronavirus, when conferences and conventions are being held on Zoom, there are few such opportunities. Also, US President-elect Joe Biden has been signaling that they have grounds to wait. He reiterated this week that he intends to immediately rejoin Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement and only then to reopen negotiations with Iran about expanding the agreement. The expectation that Iran will agree to make additional concessions after the sanctions have already been lifted is more becoming to a child in the Scouts, not an experienced statesman. For Israel, this is a worrying sign about Biden’s ability to negotiate seriously with the Iranians. ● It has to be assumed that the next administration has already begun opening channels for dialogue with Iran. Israel will have to decide soon whether to adopt a confrontational approach, as it did with Obama, or nevertheless to make an effort to influence Biden to reach a better nuclear agreement. For now, Iran has already raised the price for it to negotiate, and it will soon start enriching uranium to a level above 20%. That step is still reversible, but if Iran starts installing additional advanced centrifuges in the subterranean facility—which will bring it closer to the “immunity zone”—Yossi Cohen’s Mossad will have to activate its global agents again. Next month is the five-year anniversary of Cohen’s tenure at the Mossad, and he can already be crowned one of the most creative and combative Mossad directors we’ve ever had. ● These roles have a tendency to stagnate in the last year on the job, in order to avoid mishaps that would blemish the term, but Cohen has been acting energetically as if it were his first year. As of now he’s supposed to continue serving until June 2021, and he swore to his associates that he would not agree to stay a day more, and I still would advise him against booking a vacation in August. If it’s up to Netanyahu, he’ll stay on into the sixth year. Cohen is one of the most talented people to have served in Israeli

9 public life, and not just in contrast to the generally drab landscape. He has never hidden his aspiration to become part of the country’s leadership in the future, but the law determines that he has to have a three-year cooling period before he can run. The cooling (or screening) law is designed to block the path of senior security officials to move on to positions of political influence. The current mediocrity in our public arena indicates that screening may be necessary, but in other places.

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