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Legislative Elections

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Situation on 16.09.2019 D P S-E C T

• For the second time in less than six months, Israeli are voting, on the 17th of September to elect their representatives, for a result likely to be identical to the last election.

• The current Prime Minister ’s party, the Likoud (right-wing), could be, according to the latest polls, tied with ’s Blue and White party (centrist).

• In this context, the head of (laic party), Avidgor Lieberman, could play a decisive role, tilting the balance either in favour of Netanyahu or of Gants, and allow one of them to reach the majority in the (Parliament).

• Netanyahu, with his political future at stake and several corruption scandals against him, has raised the bids while running a populist campaign, in order to seduce the right-wing voters, and especially the far right-wing electorate. Source (map) : Quai d’Orsay

AN UNCERTAIN ELECTION

The Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who failed to form a coalition to govern after the last legislative elections, put his mandate back on the line. Like the previous elections, the outcome of the ballot seems very uncertain.

Sondage i24NEWS/ effectué le 12.09.2019

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After numerous populist declarations in order to seduce colons and the radical right-wing electorate, Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, the Likoud (right-wing), appeared to be, the day before the election (16/09), leading voting intentions’ polls. The last estimations suggested it will win from 30 up to 35 seats in the next Knesset (Israeli Parliament). Tying with the Likoud, the Blue and White party of Benny Gantz (centre), is also suggested to win 30 seats with a small lead for the Likoud.

BENNY GANTZ

Benny Gantz, former Tsahal Commander-in-Chief, is currently the only serious candidate to challenge the sitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their parties (Likoud vs Blue and White party) are very close. Affiliated to the centre, Gantz has also tried to appear, like his rival, as the “Security Man” the country needs. He has worked hard on his falcon image while recalling the two wars he led in Gaza in 2012 and 2014. He has however remained more discrete about the disastrous retreat of the Israeli army he supervised in the South of in 2000. Nonetheless, he has more moderate views than Netanyahu on both Palestinian and Iranian files. When he was the head of Tsahal, he opposed the bombing of Iranian nuclear installations.

The third place will be either ’s party Yisrael Beitenu (laic right-wing) or the , both granted a dozen of seats by polling institutes. The alliance constituted of the United Torah and could win 7 seats, just like , a coalition of right-wing parties, newly formed. On the left side of the , the coalition between the Labor party and Gesher could win 6 seats while the democratic union gathering , ’s and ’s Israeli democratic party could win 4 seats reaching the minimum eligibility threshold. The day before the election, the situation seems very balanced between the right-wing bloc accounting for around 45 seats and the left-wing bloc reaching a similar number of seats. Even with the support of the ultra-orthodox, the right-wing parties altogether would not be able to reach the required 61 seats to form a government. Indeed, without the seats gained by Avigdor Lieberman, it seems extremely difficult for Netanyahu to form a government. In those conditions, several analysts are wondering if a government formed upon a coalition would not be the best possible solution. As last April’s scenario is likely to occur again, the importance of a is on every person’s mind. Considering the very high probability that no party will be able to secure alone the majority in the Parliament, negotiations and political manoeuvring have already started. Indeed, the head of the centrist Blue and White party, Benny Gantz, called on the 14th of September, to form “a laic government”. In an interview given to the channel 12, he even explained that “we will form it together, with the Likoud [without Netanyahu], with Avigdor Lieberman, with the labor party… We will define the rules and, based on those, we will ask the others to join us”. Gantz also indicated that he intended to lead such a government. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is still hoping to win this election. In that regard, he warned against a left- wing government, adopting once again an alarmist discourse and urgently calling right-wing voters to exclusively vote for the Likoud and to not spread out their votes. As a reminder, Benjamin Netanyahu did not succeed after the last elections five months ago to form a government, and decided to dissolve the Parliament instead of relying on the President, who in such a case, is in charge of giving the task of forming a new government to another elected representative. Running neck-and-neck with Benny Gantz, with the likeliness of winning again but not being able to form a government once again, one cannot rule out the possibility that, this time, Netanyahu will rely on the president to avoid a third round of elections.

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Eventually, the following parties will fight for the third place, according to the polling institutes: The United Arab List and Avigdor Lieberman’s “Yisrael Beiteinu”, which will likely play a decisive role in the formation of the next majority as well as the next government. Even if an alliance between the United Arab List and the Likoud seems very unlikely, an alliance with the Blue and White party could give the latter a certain advantage. However, such an alliance between these two parties seems very unlikely for now. This situation could let Avigdor Lieberman’s party be the kingmaker. In this instance, his alliance with any party could be critical.

AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN, THE « KINGMAKER »?

The different polling institutes predicting a tie between the Likoud and the Blue and White party are also emphasizing the likely strengthening of Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Lieberman’s party. As a reminder, after last April’s election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likoud won the same number of seats (35) as his prime rival Benny Gantz’ party. At that time, the Likoud thought it would be able to form a new government using an alliance with the other right-wing formations which would, presumably, give the Likoud the majority in the Parliament. Nonetheless, Netanyahu did not manage to conciliate his ultra-orthodox allies’ demands with the demands of Avigdor Lieberman’s party Yisrael Beiteinu. The latter presents himself as laics’ frontrunner facing the ultra-orthodox, opposing the fact that they are exempted from compulsory military service. If the outcome of the 17th September elections confirms the results announced by the polling institutes, Netanyahu will be in a predicament in-between his religious allies and his former Defense minister Lieberman. In this context, it is not excluded to see Netanyahu’s direct challenger, Gants, succeeding to shape an alliance with Lieberman in order to form a new government. Netanyahu’s side has limited room to form a coalition in case of a victory on September 17th. The latter is facing a fractured right-wing side involving laics and ultra-religious, who themselves, on each side, are divided over societal issues. Reinforced by the polls predicting his party a dozen of seats (against only 5 won in April), the radical right-wing , while trying to seduce the voters tired of his former mentor, in office without discontinuity since 2009 (absolute record of durability), is more and more presenting himself as a potential kingmaker. Many thinks that, even if in principle, Lieberman’s ideas are closer to Netanyahu, there are no insurmountable obstacle preventing an alliance between Lieberman and Gants. Many observers are seeing the Blue and White party as “a continuation of Netanyahu’s politics but without him”. In other words, it would be a change of leader without any real change of politics. If the Likoud’s chief likes to qualify his rival of being a leftist, it is more out of political opportunism than ideological conviction. Hence, Avidgor Lieberman could choose any of them both equally. This leading figure of the Russian-speaking Israeli community could, if he manages to get the foreseen dozen seats, be able to make Netanyahu win or lose. A revenge for him who resigned from the former government after a ceasefire was agreed upon with the in November 2018 and who accused the Prime Minister of being weak while facing the Palestinian Islamic movement. The resignation of the Defense Minister fragilized the coalition and obliged the Prime Minister to call for anticipated elections. The opposition between Lieberman and Netanyahu is rather strategic than ideological. The difference between them only concerns domestic politics. Lieberman wants to protect the State from religious parties’ influence. His goal is to attract the laic vote from centrist parties to strengthen his position on the Israeli political scene. If Lieberman obtains a good score, he will be in a very good position to negotiate the conditions of his entry in a coalition possibly led by Netanyahu. The latter will then be in a bigger predicament and will have to find a good balance between his different allies.

NETANYAHU’S

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fighting for his political survival, is raising the bids the day before the 17th of September legislative elections, running a campaign using an ultranationalist discourse, focused, for example, on the Hebrew State’s security, hoping to seduce the right-wing electorate but

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mostly the extreme right-wing one. Netanyahu’s purpose, while presenting himself as the ultimate Israeli wall against and its regional allies such as the , is to draw the maximum of votes from the extreme right-wing electorate. To reach his goal, Netanyahu had repeated spectacular announcements. Indeed, he promised, on 10th of September, to unilaterally annex the valley which represents one third of the , if he wins the election. A last-minute promise, totally violating the international law, made to mobilize his electoral basis, but also to attract the remaining 400,000 colons’ votes that settled in the West Bank.

In this campaign, the Prime Minister is playing the security card in order to appear as the caution of Israel security, not hesitating to disclose and mediatize several confidential and sensitive information about overseas Israeli operations. The over-mediatization of these security operations draws criticisms targeting Netanyahu, particularly from the opposition who accuses him of questioning, for electoral purposes, the Hebrew State’s policy of strategic ambiguity. Last 24th of August, the head of government disclosed that the Israel air force struck in to prevent an attack from Iranian drones against Israel, even though the Hebrew State usually does not confirm or debunk his responsibility in this type of operation. He also suggested that the was the one behind raids that targeted military infrastructures of pro-Iran militia in Iraq. The Prime Minister also threatened to wage new wars in Lebanon and in the . Moreover, Benjamin Netanyahu experienced a devasting moment for his image, a few hours after he announced his willingness to annex the West Bank, when he had to evacuate the meeting’s stage in the city of , after alarms were heard, meaning the occurrence of an imminent rocket attack from the Gaza Strip. Besides the instrumentalization of the Iranian threat, the Prime Minister relies on his international stature to secure the maximum possible number of votes, playing on the absence of a true leadership in the opposition and on his privileged relation with president Trump, as well as with the Russian president . His supporters are particularly pointing out that Trump’s official recognition of as Israel’s capital was allowed by this privileged relationship, as well as his recognition of the Israeli sovereignty over the , a Syrian territory won during the 1967 war and annexed in 1981. And these links could be proven precious on the long-term in order to conclude a defense treaty with the . In the same regard, the several meetings staged between Netanyahu with the Russian president aim at attracting the laic and ultranationalist Avigdor Lieberman’s Russian-speaking electorate. Finally, facing several judicial proceedings, Netanyahu also played the card of the man “alone against the rest of the world”, of the anti-establishment man, repeatedly attacking the judiciary system, the media, and what he called the “ancient elite”. As a reminder, Netanyahu needs to be heard in October by the court to answer several accusations of “corruption”, “fraud”, “wrongdoings” and “breach of trust” in different cases. Netanyahu could not be required to resign if he is arrested, but only if he is convicted. In this context, the Likoud and some of its political allies would like to pass, in case of victory on September 17th, a bill giving the Prime Minister an immunity, which illustrates the importance of a victory at the next legislative elections. We should also mention that the head of government tried to convince the Parliament members, but unsuccessfully due to the lack of majority, to allow the presence of cameras in voting booths in order to, according to him, avoid “frauds” and guarantee “transparency”. For his opponents, it constituted rather an attempt to intimidate voters who are hostile to his candidacy, particularly among the Israeli Arab population and the left-wing electorate, or even a strategy to put into question an unfavourable outcome for him. For now, his populist campaign, besides criticisms and judicial proceedings, seems to be working quite well, enabling him to be the leading candidate of the election. Would it be enough to secure a majority in the next Parliament? Nothing is less certain.

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