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ASPO Commercial Services & Supplies/Finland, December 21, 2017 Company report Initiating coverage with BUY Rating BUY Aspo targets EBIT-% of 7% vs. 4.5% achieved in 2016. We 10 expect 7% to be achievable by 2020 with ESL moving towards 9 its 20-24% EBIT-% target with new LNG vessels and Telko 8 moving towards 6-7% EBIT-% target with mix and pricings, 7 6 improving logistics and new value added services. We initiate 5 coverage with a BUY recommendation and target of EUR Price/EUR 4 10.50. 3 2 ESL’s new ships add capacity and cut costs 1 ESL receives two new LNG-fuelled ships in H1 2018. The total 0 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 investment is 60 MEUR. The vessels are intended to replace ESL’s current vessels covering SSAB’s raw material transports. The Aspo DJ STOXX 600 vessels will increase ESL’s shipping capacity by 20%. The new ships have 25% better fuel efficiency and also better personnel Share price, EUR (Last trading day’s 9.26 closing price) efficiency than the current ships. While we expect the new ships Target price, EUR 10.5 to burden earnings in H1 of 2018, we expect EBIT-% to improve to 18.5% in 2019 and 20.8% in 2020. Latest change in recommendation 20-Dec-17 Latest report on company N/A Telko targets sales of EUR 300-350m and EBIT of 6-7% Research paid by issuer: YES With new targets announced in November 2017 Telko targets No. of shares outstanding, ‘000’s 30,579 sales of EUR 300-350m and EBIT-% of 6-7% by 2020. We expect No. of shares fully diluted, ‘000’s 30,579 Telko to benefit from solid market growth in its markets and Market cap, EURm 283 actions in pricing and mix, operations and growth in services to support margin improvement to 6% reached by its peers. Free float, % 100.0 Exchange rate EUR/RUB 69.579 Leipurin – profitability recovering Reuters code ASPO.HE Profitability of Leipurin showed clear improvement in Q3, and we Bloomberg code ASPO FH expect better performance to carry over to Q4 and 2018 with Average daily volume, EURm 0.1 strong order book in machinery. Next interim report 15-Feb-17 Web site www.aspo.com BUY with target price of 10.50 Based on 2018 multiples Aspo has only limited upside. We expect Analyst Markku Järvinen Aspo to gradually improve towards its targets in 2018-2020 with Olli Pöyhönen 2018 burdened by ramp up of ESL’s new capacity. We have a E-mail [email protected] positive view of Aspo’s prospect and initiate coverage with a BUY Telephone +358 9 4766 9635 recommendation and target of EUR 10.50. Our target values Aspo at 13.1x 2019E EV/EBIT and 2019E P/E of 11.5x. BUY HOLD SELL KEY FIGURES Sales EBIT EBIT Ptx profit EPS P/E EV/Sales P/CF EV/EBIT DPS EURm EURm % EURm EUR (x) (x) (x) (x) EUR 2015 446 21 4.6% 21 0.65 11.6 0.8 9.2 17.1 0.41 2016 457 20 4.5% 17 0.52 15.7 0.8 15.4 18.5 0.42 2017E 500 24 4.9% 22 0.64 14.6 0.8 8.2 17.0 0.44 2018E 528 28 5.3% 25 0.72 12.9 0.8 7.7 15.5 0.46 2019E 560 35 6.2% 31 0.92 10.1 0.8 6.7 12.1 0.50 Market cap, EURm 283 BV per share 2017E, EUR 3.1 CAGR EPS 2016-19, % 20.8 Net debt* 2017E, EURm 132 Price/book 2017E 2.9 CAGR sales 2016-19, % 7.0 Enterprise value, EURm 415 Dividend yield 2017E, % 4.8 ROE 2017E, % 21.0 Total assets 2017E, EURm 329 Tax rate 2017E, % 6.3 ROCE 2017E, % 9.9 Goodwill 2017E, EURm 43 Equity ratio* 2017E, % 29.2 PEG, P/E 17/CAGR 0.7 All the important disclosures can be found on the last pages of this report. *EUR 25m hybrid bond included in debt Evli Bank Plc, Aleksanterinkatu 19 A, P.O. Box 1081, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland, Tel +358 9 476 690, Fax +358 9 634 382, www.evli.com 1(62) EVLI EQUITY RESEARCH ASPO Commercial Services & Supplies/Finland, December 21, 2017 Company report Contents 1. Investment summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 2. Scenario Analysis .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1. Base case: ESL and Telko improve .......................................................................................................................................................................... 6 2.2. Bull case: Telko and ESL reach high end of margin targets ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Bear case: ESL volume growth disappoints, Telko’s margins flat ............................................................................................................ 6 3. Aspo ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 3.1. History................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 3.2. A portfolio of companies ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 3.3. Management ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.4. External boards ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.5. Benefits of the conglomerate structure ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.6. Net sales and profitability ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.7. Geographies and currencies .................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 3.8. Russian economy ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 11 3.9. Financial targets .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 3.10. Balance sheet ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 3.11. CAPEX ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 3.12. Depreciations and amortizations ........................................................................................................................................................................ 15 3.13. Dividend and EPS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 4. ESL Shipping ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.1. Services and customers ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.2. Steel industry................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 4.3. Energy industry ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 4.4. New vessels.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.5. Fleet ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.6. Operating costs ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19 4.7. Cargo volumes ............................................................................................................................................................................................................
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