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RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS eng#4_2009.qxd 11/30/09 9:00 PM Page 1 RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 7•No. 4•OCTOBER – DECEMBER•2009 Contents A Different View on the European Anniversary Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Essential Talk Mikhail Gorbachev: “Everything must be carried through to the end” 8 In our transition to democracy we are somewhere in the middle, still far away. We, a country in transition, have not understood what freedom is and how to use it. We do not use democratic institutions in earnest. We must focus on the development of our country, so that people can be proud of it. Lessons of the European Revolution Without Ideology or Order Timofei Bordachev 16 The greatest achievement in Russian foreign policy over the past 20 years has been the renunciation of messianism. Yet today Russia has to choose again between a policy based on global ideas, one that is mainly pursued by the Unit- ed States, and sovereign pragmatism, which is characteristic of the foreign poli- cies of China, India, and – increasingly – Europe. Policy Transformation Viatcheslav Morozov 30 Like any social and cultural form, the era of Russia’s exclusion from Europe is not endless and will be over one day; this issue may even lose its pressing char- acter (for instance, if the center of the global world shifts to Asia). Still, the cur- rent situation shows an amazing stability and we Europeans just do not have enough political imagination to eradicate this standoff. eng#4_2009.qxd 11/30/09 9:00 PM Page 2 Contents Assimilating Experience Lai Hairong 41 The Soviet Union had been a model for China in terms of systemic develop- ment, even though international relations between China and the Soviet Union practically broke off in the 1960s. Thus, nothing could be more sweep- ing in Chinese mentality than the demise of its tutor, the Soviet Union. Post-Soviet Russia’s Challenges Tradition Breaks Reform Leonid Sedov 50 Russian society tends to form tiers of mafias through the actions of the princi- ples of hierarchy and rank-worship on the one hand, and adolescent group sol- idarity on the other, with the upper-ruling mafia as the occupational force. Missing in Translation Piotr Dutkiewicz 58 The lack of real modernization policies of the last four to five years cannot be continued without serious, negative, long-term consequences. The only good thing about the current crisis is that no one can deny the necessity for acceler- ated change and the need for a larger, societal debate about the future of the country. Russia’s Future: Nation or Civilization? Igor Zevelev 73 To build a real civic identity, a nation must have legitimate and, desirably, his- torically grounded borders, as well as stable and effective state institutions. The all-Russian nation within the present borders of the Russian Federation is young, unstable and weak. Regular elections, political parties, common social and economic problems, and politics could gradually become a shell for a new political nation. Where Is the “Pilot Region” Heading? Vadim Smirnov 88 The Kaliningrad Region can be called a “war child.” Eastern Prussia with its capital Koenigsberg would not have had such a knotty history if Germany had not lost World War II. After the breakup of the Soviet Union the region found itself in completely new and hitherto unseen geopolitical conditions. Twenty Years of Drifting Apart Nikolai Silayev 98 The logic of Realpolitik pushes Russia not towards defining for itself the limits to restricting the sovereignty of neighbors, but towards taking as much sovereignty from its neighbors as – using Yeltsin’s famous metaphor – it can swallow. This approach rules out long-term agreements. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 4 •OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2009 eng#4_2009.qxd 11/30/09 9:00 PM Page 3 Contents Towards a New Diplomacy Once Again about a New Entente Yevgeny Savostyanov 112 Recent developments in the world make it necessary to focus on a dramatic revision of Russian-U.S. relations on a scope not seen before. Russia, the world’s largest country with immense resources, and the U.S., the richest, most powerful and advanced country in the world, have no immanent contradic- tions. There are no insurmountable obstacles against building a full-scale part- nership. Arctic Diplomacy Alexander Oreshenkov 121 An analysis of the historical and legal aspects of the current sovereign jurisdic- tion of land surface areas that serve as points of departure in measuring the boundaries of exclusive economic zones and the continental shelf beyond them may have significance for the delimitation of maritime areas between Russia and its Arctic neighbors. The Crisis: A New Insight Who Is to Blame? Fyodor Shelov-Kovediayev 134 Although all the markets have actually turned into financial ones, there is no reliable theory that would explain how they function; even the leaders of the financial world had a feeble idea about the specificity of the new financial instruments. It appears that the theory of long-term economic cycles has grown outdated, while the theory of real cycles does not have a practical value. Financial Architecture: Urgent Repair Leonid Grigoriev & Marsel Salikhov 145 Russia’s role in the world financial architecture is unlikely to be as significant as many would wish it to be, but given sensible alliances and compromises, it may become quite sufficient for protecting its national interests. The current situation should be used to modernize Russia’s own financial system, increase its resistance to external shocks, and its ability to convert internal savings into domestic investments in development. The Road Map of an Anti-Crisis Strategy Vyacheslav Kopiev 160 The cynicism of economic nationalism is manifested primarily in appeals to buy domestic products. Meanwhile, the ability of domestic manufacturers to produce products that would meet the growing requirements of buyers directly depends on their involvement in the international division of labor. Review No Easy Path to Constructive U.S.-Russian Relations Thomas Graham 168 RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 4 •OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2009 eng#4_2009.qxd 11/30/09 9:00 PM Page 4 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir OVCHINSKY Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir POZNER Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Vyacheslav KOPIEV Sergei PRIKHODKO Industrial Investors Ltd. Alexei ARBATOV Mikhail KOZHOKIN (in a personal capacity) Ruben VARDANYAN Alexander AVDEYEV Yaroslav KUZMINOV Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Troika-Dialog Group (in a personal capacity) Boris KUZYK Vladimir RYZHKOV Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV Lev BELOUSOV Sergei LAVROV Horst TELTSCHIK Sistema JSFC (Deputy Chairman) (in a personal capacity) (Germany) Igor ZYUZIN C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) Vladimir LUKIN Anatoly TORKUNOV Mechel JSC Carl BILDT (Sweden) Fyodor LUKYANOV Yuri USHAKOV (in a personal capacity) (Editor-in-Chief) Lord William WALLACE Vladimir GRIGORYEV Vladimir MAU (Great Britain) (in a personal capacity) Thierry de MONTBRIAL Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY James HOGE (U.S.A) (France) Igor YURGENS Igor IVANOV Vyacheslav NIKONOV Alexander ZHUKOV Karl KAISER (Germany) (Deputy Chairman) (in a personal capacity) Irina KHAKAMADA Valery OKULOV Sergei ZVEREV Helmut KOHL (Germany) (in a personal capacity) PUBLISHED BY BOARD OF ADVISORS FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH FOUNDATION Anatoly ADAMISHIN Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY Olga BUTORINA Leonid GRIGORIEV Anatoly VISHNEVSKY Yuri DUBININ Alexander LOMANOV INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN EDITION IS PUBLISHED •Newspapers: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Vremya Novostey WITH PARTICIPATION OF •News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti •Radio Station Echo of Moscow FOREIGN AFFAIRS LEGAL CONSULTANCY KLISHIN & PARTNERS Editorial Office: Attorneys at Law 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Moscow 103873, Russia Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev e-mail: [email protected] Executive Director Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition http://www.globalaffairs.ru Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov Robert Mulcahy Computer Makeup Alexandra Kobzeva Rinat Yakubov Natalia Zablotskite Registered with Proof-Reader THE MINISTRY Assistant to Editor-in-Chief Circulation Arnold Kun OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Valeria Chistyakova Andrei Yevdokimov FOR PRESS, TV AND RADIO tel.: 7 (495) 937-7611 Web Editor BROADCASTING AND MEANS [email protected] OF MASS COMMUNICATION Pavel Zhitnyuk PI No. 77-12900 [email protected] 3 June 2002 Printed by Kaluzhskaya Tipografia Standartov Order No. 914 Circulation: 1,000 copies The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinions of the Editors. The responsibility for the authenticity and accuracy of the facts in the published articles rests with the authors. © Foreign Policy Research Foundation 2009 All rights reserved. Reproduction in part or whole is allowed only with the explicit authorization of the pub- lisher. eng#4_2009.qxd 11/30/09 9:00 PM Page 5 y A Different View on the European Anniversary Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief Europe recently celebrated the 20th Georgia in 2008). Furthermore, the anniversary of the anti-Communist rev- universal security system, which was olution that put an end to the division talked about so much in the post-Cold of the world into two ideological blocs. War years, has not been built. The events of 1989 opened a new chap- In this issue, Soviet President ter in global politics; however, even two Mikhail Gorbachev shares his views on decades later, the full content of this the events of the late 1980s. He is still chapter remains unclear. The fall of the convinced that what he did was right Berlin Wall was not “the end of history” because it set a strategy for the develop- as proclaimed by some analysts at the ment of his country and the whole time, but the beginning of a thorny world.
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