ASIA between Multipolarism and Multipolarity Editors Sujan R. Chinoy • Jagannath P. Panda ASIA between Multipolarism and Multipolarity ASIA between Multipolarism and Multipolarity Editors Sujan R. Chinoy • Jagannath P. Panda KNOWLEDGE WORLD KW Publishers Pvt Ltd New Delhi Copyright © 2020 Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Delhi Cantt. New Delhi-110 010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in ISBN 978-93-89137-43-9 Hardback Published in India by Kalpana Shukla KW Publishers Pvt Ltd 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Phone: +91 11 23263498/43528107 Marketing: [email protected] Editorial: [email protected] Website: www.kwpub.com Printed and bound in India The content of this book is the sole expression and opinion of its author(s), and not of the publisher. The publisher in no manner is liable for any opinion or views expressed by the author(s). While best efforts have been made in preparing the book, the publisher makes no representations or warranties of any kind and assumes no liabilities of any kind with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the content and specifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness of use of a particular purpose. The publisher believes that the contents of this book do not violate any existing copyright/intellectual property of others in any manner whatsoever. However, in case any source has not been duly attributed, the publisher may be notified in writing for necessary action. Contents List of Tables, Figures and Maps ix Preface xi Acknowledgements xv Notes on Contributors xix List of Abbreviations xxxv Introduction xli Sujan R. Chinoy PART I - Debating a Multipolar Asia 1. The Geo-economics of Multipolarity 3 Sanjaya Baru 2. India and the Multipolar World: Need for a New Narrative 19 Arvind Gupta 3. Beijing’s Vision of the Asian Order: Promoting a Community of Shared Future 31 Jingdong Yuan 4. The United States’ Indo-Pacific Policies Debate 47 Satu Limaye 5. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU): Eurasian Order and Russia-China Relations 61 Sergey Lukonin 6. Australia, the Indo-Pacific Idea and a Multipolar Order 77 Peter Drysdale PART II - Reframing the Regional Architecture 7. Free-Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) and China’s Approach to Regionalism 93 Zhang Zhenjiang vi • Asia between Multipolarism and Multipolarity 8. Why AIIB, Not BRI? India’s Fine Balance on China 109 Jagannath P. Panda 9. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Future of Regional Integration in Central Asia 134 Mirzokhid Rakhimov 10. RCEP and Indo-Pacific Economic Integration 150 Tomoo Kikuchi and Kensuke Yanagida 11. Indonesia’s Rise: With or Without BRICS 174 Endy Bayuni 12. China’s BRICS Vision and the Asian Order 190 Hu Xiaowen 13. The Russian Vision of BRICS in the Context of a Multipolar Order in Asia 205 Elena Boykova PART III - The Evolving Indo-Pacific Order 14. Maritime Security in Indo-Pacific: An American Perception 219 J. Mohan Malik 15. United Kingdom’s Foreign Policy and Indo-Pacific Security 234 John Hemmings 16. Achieving a Free and Open Indo-Pacific through the Quad Framework: A Japanese Perspective 244 Hideshi Tokuchi 17. India and the Idea of Indo-Pacific: A Hesitant Embrace? 260 Abhay Kumar Singh 18. The Indo-Pacific: China’s Perception 290 Zeng Xiangyu 19. Russia’s Vision of an Asian Security Order 305 Georgy Toloraya and Valeriia Gorbacheva 20. Sri Lanka and the Maritime Security Order in the Indian Ocean 320 Jayanath Colombage Contents • vii PART IV - Managing Contests and Security Concerns in Asia 21. Philippines and Maritime Security Order in Southeast Asia 339 Renato Cruz De Castro 22. The US, China and the Asian Security Order by 2025: A Taiwanese Perspective 368 Arthur Shuhfan Ding 23. Denuclearisation on Alert: Reshaping Security Order on the Korean Peninsula 387 Ji Yeon-jung 24. From Alliance to Networks: Managing India’s Security Challenges in the Indian Ocean Region 404 Swaran Singh 25. India and the Terrorism-Military Nexus in South Asia 424 Manoj Joshi PART V - Differences and Disputes in Asia 26. The Future of India-Pakistan Ties 447 Ashok Behuria 27. India-China Border Question: The Way Ahead 460 Zhang Jiadong and Wei Han 28. India-China Boundary Question: An Indian Perspective 482 S L Narasimhan 29. Future of South China Sea Dispute: A Vietnamese Perspective 494 Ha Anh Tuan PART VI - Energy, Geopolitics and Maritime Dimensions 30. Bangladesh and the Geo-Politics of Bay of Bengal 511 Shamsher M. Chowdhury 31. Energy Security and Development: India’s Balance between Priorities, Challenges and Opportunities 520 Shebonti Ray Dadwal viii • Asia between Multipolarism and Multipolarity 32. Oil, Ports and Hard Power: Shifting Balance of Power in the Gulf and Horn of Africa 540 Brendon J. Cannon 33. Global Commerce and the Sea Lines of Communication in the Indian Ocean: A Sri Lankan Perspective 556 Rohan Masakorala Index 579 List of Tables, Figures and Maps Tables 7.1 China’s bilateral free trade agreements 103 8.1 AIIB’ five large-scale investments in India with close coordination with State and Central governments 124 10.1 List of countries in RCEP and Indo-Pacific 155 10.2 Sectoral export changes caused by RCEP ($ billion) in 2030 161 10.1A GTAP Database: 13 Regions 169 10.2A GTAP Database: 23 Industries 170 10.3A Import Tariff Rates 171 10.4A Non-tariff Barriers for Goods 171 10.5A Non-tariff Barriers for Services 172 25.1 Index of terrorist activity: deaths and arms recoveries 1986-1993 430 25.2 Index of terrorist activity: deaths and arms recoveries 1989-1995 434 Figures 8.1 AIIB’s exponential growth since its formal launch in 2016 111 8.2 Sector-wise distribution of 62 approved AIIB projects 120 8.3 Sector-wise distribution of 24 proposed AIIB projects 121 8.4 AIIB funded projects in India 123 10.1a Real GDP changes ($ trillion) in 2030 – RCEP baseline scenario 157 10.1b Real GDP changes ($ trillion) in 2030 – RCEP + India growth scenario 157 10.2a Sectoral export for India in 2030 158 10.2b Sectoral import for India in 2030 159 10.3a Real GDP changes ($ trillion) in 2030 – Indo-Pacific 163 x • Asia between Multipolarism and Multipolarity 10.3b Real GDP changes ($ trillion) in 2030 – Indo-Pacific + India growth 163 10.4a Sectoral export for India in 2030 165 10.4b Sectoral import for India in 2030 165 11.1 Top 10 Countries by Nominal GDP in 2030 178 11.2 Poverty rates (in millions) 179 11.3 Ease of Doing Business and Global Competitiveness 181 12.1 Number of Papers Published in Academic Journals on “BRICS”: 2001-2018 191 12.2 Number of Papers Published in Media on “BRICS”: 2001-2018 192 12.3 Quoted Rate in Academic Journals on “BRICS”: 2001-2018 192 12.4 Number of Papers Published in Academic Journals on “BRICS Economy”: 2001-2018 193 12.5 The Academic Trends on New Normal: 2013-2018 195 14.1 Maritime Futures – SCO, OBOR, FOIP, Quad, iQuad, COD 230 33.1 UN Population Distribution and Political Boundaries 558 33.2 Comparison of World Economic Share in 2016 and 2050 559 33.3 World Primary Energy Consumption 560 33.4 Emerging Economies Making Leaps through Income Brackets 562 33.5 World Seaborne Trade in 2017 and its growth forecast for 2018-23 563 33.6 Colombo Port Expansion Project 572 33.7 Shipping activity in Sri Lanka 575 Maps 28.1 Map of Jammu and Kashmir 483 28.2 Location of Chumar 487 32.1 Eastern Africa 547 Preface The 20th Century witnessed the world order shifting from the multipolarity to the bipolarity to the unipolarity. After the end of the Cold War, the unipolar world under the United States (US)-led Trans-Atlantic leadership has shaped the liberal economic order that proliferated the engagements through multilateral institutions. While the promotion of the Western-centric political and economic ethos might have been the dominant motivation behind the shaping of such an order, it also benefitted major powers of Asia, especially highly populated ones like China, India, Indonesia. As the economic prosperity of these Asian economies boomed, the global economic pivot started shifting towards the East. Though the consolidation of China’s national power has been way ahead of the rest in Asia in the last three decades, the same for India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan, among others, has also been significant. As the geo-strategic pole in Asia is shifting from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific, the reality of Multipolar Asia is looking more potent than ever before, which is also at the core of building Multipolar World. Multilateral engagements to frame various regional economic architectures in Asia are becoming more usual than ever before. These engagements must also be seen from the context of anxiety that prevails because of the ongoing US-China trade conflict and debt trap situations arising for small countries from Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Increasing multilateral interactions have become a way to hedge economic uncertainties arising from these incidents. Regional economic initiatives like Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive xii • Asia between Multipolarism and Multipolarity and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), etc., are some that are shaping the regional economic edifices across Asia.