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Russia in Global Affairs July RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 6•No. 3•JULY – SEPTEMBER•2008 Contents In Anticipation of Change Fyodor Lukyanov 5 The World at Change Russia and the World in the 21st Century Sergei Lavrov 8 The end of the Cold War marked the end of a longer stage in global devel- opment, which lasted for 400 to 500 years and when the world was domi- nated by European civilization. This domination was consistently led by the historical West. Now competition is becoming truly global and acquiring a civilizational dimension. Should Russia Leave the OSCE? Mark Entin & Andrei Zagorsky 19 Even if Russia withdraws, the OSCE will continue its traditional activities, although perhaps on a still smaller scale than today. Moscow will no longer participate in shaping OSCE policies and it will finally lose its levers of influence over OSCE interaction with neighboring countries. OSCE Battlefield Arkady Dubnov 32 The Kazakh path toward chairmanship of the largest European organization has been full of twists and turns and it reflects not so much the rise of the country’s national statehood, as the rivalry between Russia and the West for energy resources in the Caspian basin and Central Asia, plus the competi- tion between Moscow and the Kazakh government for positions in energy markets and in the territory of the former Soviet Union. Victory Without Confrontation Azhdar Kurtov 46 Neither Russia nor even the United States or Western European organiza- tions are capable of competing with China’s financial practice in world pol- itics. China, which is formally a market economy country, de facto pre- served the phenomenon of state paternalism. Contents An Untapped Political Capital Rafael Khakimov 56 Russian Islam is a treasure, especially regarding foreign policy. The Eastern policy was an important component of international affairs in Soviet Russia. Along with supplies of weapons and attempts to trigger revolutions in Muslim countries, Moscow wielded ideological and spiritual influence there – something that has been drowned in oblivion now. The Strategic Agenda Missile Defense Challenges Pavel Zolotarev 66 Russia and the U.S. have become hostages of Cold War weapons, above all ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles which cannot be placed in a reduced launch readiness status without violating the normal mode of operation. Therefore, the system of “mutual assured destruction” must be maintained. Moratorium on the CFE Treaty and South Caucasian Security Sergei Minasyan 79 If NATO countries decide that continuing to comply with the CFE Treaty is senseless now that Russia has withdrawn from it, or if they start creating an alternative mechanism for arms control in Europe without Russia’s par- ticipation, all the prerequisites will emerge in the South Caucasus for a full- scale arms race. Without Friends and Foes Sergei Markedonov 89 Azerbaijan has received greater international interest due to its hydrocarbon resources and the increased importance of the Caspian region at large as an alternative source of energy for the European market. Located at an inter- section of interests of various countries, Azerbaijan has to conduct an accu- rate and flexible foreign policy. Safeguarding the Arctic Yuri Golotyuk 100 The global situation in the North has brought forth new challenges and one of them confronts the Russian military, which has become accustomed to viewing the Arctic as its own personal fiefdom. A hunt for mineral resources necessitates a reshaping of approaches that were typical of the era of ideo- logical standoffs. Energy Challenges Renewable Energy in Russia’s Future Toby T. Gati 112 If the focus of Russian political leadership continues to be on gas and oil production and if the state budget continues to rely heavily on tax revenues from these industries, there will be few incentives to innovate and develop new resources on a significant scale. The Energy Exception Angel de la Vega Navarro 122 Despite the inherent contradictions between the WTO and OPEC, however, both organizations are indispensable. OPEC has a pivotal role in the regula- tion of petroleum supplies and prices and the WTO is an organization that remains the center of gravity of the multilateral trade regime. One possible means consists of establishing an interface between OPEC and the WTO. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 6 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER • 2008 Contents Energy Animosity – Reality or Construct? Nodari Simonia 128 Given their geographical proximity and at a time of increasing energy scarci- ty, it seems that it would be in the interests of both Russia and Europe to pursue cooperation on equal terms. Commercially, such cooperation is already being pursued. It is the political grandstanding that needs to change. In Search of Identity Europe: Self-Alignment in Time and Space Vyacheslav Morozov 136 The conflict between Russia and the European Union is much more profound than a mere collision of pragmatic, rationally formulated interests. The dis- agreement relates to the self-identification of both political subjects in time and space, which in turn has an inseparable link to ethic problems, to the under- standing of good and evil, and to the perception of threats to security. The Undying Echo of the Past Alexei Miller 149 There is a great risk of getting mired in counterproductive discussions about the frontiers of the European model of historical development. References to the history of one region or another or one nation or another as “European” or “non-European” are unscrupulously used today inside the EU itself and along its periphery when it comes to discussing whether the region or nation deserves to be a member of a united Europe. The Paradox and Dangers of “Historical Policy” Anatoly Torkunov 166 Any nation state will seek to produce its own version of history. This history – or rather, its interpretation, will be slightly different from that of one’s neigh- bors. Yet the writing of “national histories” should not proceed from adverse- ly directed historical materials, the philosophy of hatred or historical claims. The Russian People and National Identity Valery Tishkov 172 In fact, while such a reality was never admitted or acknowledged by the leadership, the Soviet people actually constituted a civic nation, with the Soviet Union being a kind of nation state. The Soviet Union was in many ways no different than other large and ethnically heterogeneous states. Incomplete Centralization Olga Tynyanova 182 The federal authorities have done much in recent years to strengthen the unity and territorial stability of the Russian Federation. However, the insti- tutional and legislative guarantees for the country’s territorial integrity are quite unreliable. If an unforeseen political weakening of the federal center occurs, there is a high likelihood that the country’s federative structure will be shattered. Controversy Don’t Throw Stones in a Glass House Alexei Arbatov 192 A “machismo” – completely down-to-earth, highly anti-idealistic and rigid- ly pragmatic – position by Russia cannot but evoke a strong response from the majority of the national elite and the general public. This hard stance looks especially appealing if one recalls the naïve idealism of the late 1980s and the political tossing about and humiliations of the 1990s. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 6 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER • 2008 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman Vladimir POTANIN (Chairman) Martti AHTISAARI Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir POZNER Interros Holding Company (Finland) Mikhail KOMISSAR Sergei PRIKHODKO Sergei GENERALOV Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Vyacheslav KOPIEV (in a personal capacity) Industrial Investors Ltd. Alexei ARBATOV Mikhail KOZHOKIN Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Andrei KUZYAEV Lev BELOUSOV Yaroslav KUZMINOV Vladimir RYZHKOV LUKoil Overseas Holding Ltd. (Deputy Chairman) Boris KUZYK Horst TELTSCHIK C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) (Germany) Valery OKULOV Sergei LAVROV Aeroflot JSC Carl BILDT (Sweden) (in a personal capacity) Anatoly TORKUNOV (in a personal capacity) Ruben VARDANYAN Vladimir LUKIN Lord William WALLACE Troika-Dialog Group Vladimir GRIGORYEV (Great Britain) (in a personal capacity) Fyodor LUKYANOV (Editor-in-Chief) Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV James HOGE (U.S.A) (in a personal capacity) Sistema JSFC Vladimir MAU Igor IVANOV Igor YURGENS Igor ZYUZIN Thierry de MONTBRIAL Karl KAISER (Germany) (France) Alexander ZHUKOV Mechel JSC (in a personal capacity) Irina KHAKAMADA Vyacheslav NIKONOV Helmut KOHL (Germany) (Deputy Chairman) Sergei ZVEREV Vladimir OVCHINSKY BOARD OF ADVISORS Anatoly ADAMISHIN Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY Olga BUTORINA Leonid GRIGORIEV Anatoly VISHNEVSKY PUBLISHED BY Yuri DUBININ Alexander LOMANOV FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH FOUNDATION INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN EDITION IS PUBLISHED •Newspapers: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Vremya Novostey WITH PARTICIPATION OF •News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti •Radio Station Echo of Moscow FOREIGN AFFAIRS LEGAL CONSULTANCY KLISHIN & PARTNERS Attorneys at Law Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov Editorial Office: 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev Moscow 103873, Russia tel.: +7 (495) 980-7353 Executive Director Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board fax: +7 (495) 937-7611 Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors e-mail: [email protected] Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov Robert Bridge Computer Makeup Alexandra Kobzeva http://www.globalaffairs.ru Robert Mulcahy Natalia Zablotskite
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