Mcauliffe Leads by 9% As Cuccinelli Loses Women and Key Republican Voters

October 8, 2013

Virginia Survey: 2013 Statewide Elections

McAuliffe leads by 9% as Cuccinelli loses women and key Republican voters

Summary of Key Findings 1. McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli by 9% among likely voters. 2. Cuccinelli is losing key voters: women, independents, business-minded Republicans. 3. African-American voters’ support for McAuliffe is weaker than for Deeds in 2009 or Obama in 2012. 4. Northam holds a commanding lead over Jackson in Lieutenant-Governor race. 5. Attorney General race is a dead heat; Obenshain is avoiding a backlash of female voters.

For Further Information Contact:

Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director McMurran Hall 264 Office (757) 594-8499 Wason Center for Public Policy Christopher Newport University Mobile (757) 775-6932 e-mail [email protected] Newport News, VA 23606 http://cpp.cnu.edu

Analysis

Democrat Terry McAuliffe holds a commanding 9% lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli among likely voters with just over four weeks to go before Virginians decide who will be their next governor. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is garnering 8% among likely voters, but fewer than half of those who say they are going to vote for Sarvis say their decision is very firm. Eight in ten McAuliffe and Cuccinelli voters say their decisions are very firm.

The Wason Center for Public Policy poll of 1,004 registered voters, including 886 likely voters, was taken Oct. 1-6. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% level of confidence.

The keys to McAuliffe’s lead appear to be his 12% advantage among female voters (50% to 38%) and his 16% advantage among independents (45% to 29 %). Additionally, McAuliffe leads in Northern Virginia by 28% and the Richmond metro area by 7%, and is tied with Cuccinelli in Southwest and Southside Virginia – a traditional Republican stronghold, 43% to 44%. One source of worry for McAuliffe: His support among African-American voters, key to any Democrat’s success in Virginia, stands at 83 percent – lower than President Obama in 2012 (93%) and lower than losing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in 2009 (90%). That gap could be tied to Cuccinelli’s good news in this survey, his 43% to 37% lead over McAuliffe in Hampton Roads, where the black vote is especially significant.

Race for Governor

RV LV Firm Rep Dem Ind Male Female White Black n=1,004 n=886 Dec

McAuliffe 43 47 79 4 93 45 46 50 41 83

Cuccinelli 38 38 81 88 1 29 37 38 44 8

Sarvis 9 8 43 3 2 17 9 6 9 2 Undecided 11 7 5 4 9 8 7 6 7

Not Support Bus Social Both Support NoVa Rich HR SS/SW T Party Rep Rep Rep T Party McAuliffe 2 80 58 46 37 43 2 4 4

Cuccinelli 90 8 30 39 43 44 87 96 86

Sarvis 6 7 6 7 13 8 9 3

Undecided 3 6 6 9 8 8 2 7

In addition to trailing McAuliffe among female voters, Cuccinelli is losing Republican voters who self-describe as more concerned about the business climate. Among business-minded Republicans, 9% say they intend to vote for Libertarian Sarvis. Republicans who self-describe as more concerned about social issues are rallying strongly around Cuccinelli, with 96% saying they plan to vote for him. Of those Republicans who say their views are a mix of concerns about both the business climate and social issues, 10% are either undecided or planning to vote for Sarvis, the Libertarian, and only 86% say they plan to vote for Cuccinelli.

“In the closing weeks of the election, I would expect the Cuccinelli campaign to try to convince those moderate Republicans and women to take a second look,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy. “For McAuliffe, the closing weeks are likely to be about solidifying his position and making sure his supporters turn out on Election Day, especially African-American voters.”

Race for Lieutenant Governor

RV LV SS/ Rep Dem Ind Male Female NoVa Rich n=1,004 n=886 HR SW

Northam 44 48 5 92 47 45 50 55 48 45 48

Jackson 39 37 82 32 39 35 28 37 43 37

Undecided 18 16 13 8 21 16 15 17 16 12 16

In the race for Lieutenant Governor, state Senator Ralph Northam holds a commanding 11% lead over Bishop E.W. Jackson among likely voters, 48% to 37%. Northam’s lead comes from a strong gender gap, with likely female voters siding with Northam over Jackson by 15%. Northam leads in all regions of the state, but in Hampton Roads, home to both candidates, his lead is only 2%. Republican voters are also uncertain about Jackson, with 5% saying they will vote for Northam and 13% saying they are yet undecided. Among independents, Northam holds a 15% lead, 47% to 32%.

“The case Ralph Northam has made that E.W. Jackson is a radical social conservative seems to be sticking with voters, especially female voters,” said Kidd. “It’s also hard to see how a candidate wins while losing Northern Virginia so overwhelmingly.”

Race for Attorney General

RV LV SS/ Rep Dem Ind Male Female NoVa Rich n=1,004 n=886 HR SW

Herring 42 45 3 92 41 44 45 52 47 36 39

Obenshain 43 42 88 2 39 39 45 30 44 50 49

Undecided 16 14 9 6 21 16 11 17 9 14 12

The race for Attorney General is a much closer contest, with Democrat Mark Herring leading Republican Mark Obenshain among likely voters, 45% to 42%. That 3% edge is within the poll’s margin of error. Herring’s small advantage comes from a big showing in Northern Virginia. Obenshain leads in Hampton Roads and Southwest/Southside. The race is tied in the Richmond area. Importantly, female likely voters are split evenly between the two candidates at 45% each.

“The Attorney General’s race is wide open, and neither campaign can afford to let up or make any mistakes.” said Kidd. “The Obenshain campaign appears to be avoiding a down-ticket backlash from female voters, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in this contest.”

The Wason Center Virginia Survey: 2013 Statewide Elections

Field Dates: Oct. 1-6 1,004 registered voters, including 886 likely voters Margin of Error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% level of confidence Numbers are percentages; columns may not sum to 100 due to rounding

Q1. Could you tell me how closely you have been following news about the governor’s race this year...would you say very closely, somewhat closely, not very closely, or not at all?

Very closely 29 Somewhat closely 51 Not very closely 18 Not at all 2

Q2. And how likely are you to vote in the upcoming November election...would you say that you are absolutely certain, fairly certain, or not certain to vote?

Absolutely certain 88 Fairly certain 11 Not certain 1

Q3. If the election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [Rotate: Terry McAuliffe the Democrat, Ken Cuccinelli the Republican, or Robert Sarvis the Libertarian]?

RV LV (includes leaners)

McAuliffe 43 47 Cuccinelli 38 38 Sarvis 9 8 Undecided (vol) 11 7

Q4. And how firm is that decision would you say very firm, somewhat firm, or not very firm?

Very firm 73 Somewhat firm 18 Not very firm 5 Don’t know/refused (vol) 4

Q5. Thinking about the race for lieutenant governor, if the election for lieutenant governor were being held today, would you vote for [Rotate: Ralph Northam the Democrat or E. W. Jackson the Republican]?

RV LV (includes leaners)

Northam 44 48 Jackson 39 37 Undecided (vol) 18 16

Q6. Thinking about the race for attorney general, if the election for attorney general were being held today, would you vote for [Rotate: Mark Herring the Democrat or Mark Obenshain the Republican]?

RV LV (includes leaners)

Herring 42 45 Obenshain 43 42 Undecided (vol) 16 14 5

(Questions 7-21 held for future release)

EDUC: What is the last grade of school or college you had the opportunity to complete?

High school or less 14 Some college 21 Vocational or technical training 3 College graduate 38 Graduate study or more 24

HISPANIC: Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic or Latino?

Yes 2 No 98

RACE: Do you consider yourself to be:

White 77 Black or African American 17 Other 6

Age: Age Category of Respondent

18-24 8 25-34 10 35-44 18 45-55 24 55 + 40

RELIG: What is your religious preference, are you Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, another religion, or no religion?

Protestant 33 Christian (non-specific) (vol) 28 Catholic 13 Jewish 2 Other 12 None 12

BORNAGAIN: Would you describe yourself as a “born-again” or evangelical Christian?

Yes 30 No 66 Don’t know/refused (vol.) 4

IDEOL: When it comes to your ideology, would you consider yourself to be a…

Strong liberal 9 Liberal 12 Moderate, leaning liberal 24 Moderate, leaning conservative 22 Conservative 20 Strong Conservative 13

PARTYID: In politics today, do you generally consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, or Independent?

Democrat 32 Republican 30 Independent 33 No preference(vol.) 3 Other/don’t know (vol.) 2

REPUBLICAN: Some people say that there are two kinds of Republicans, those who are more concerned about the business climate and less concerned about social issues, and those who are more concerned about social issues and less concerned about the business climate. Which kind of Republican would you call yourself, or would you say that you are some of both? [ASKED ONLY OF REPUBLICAN PARTY IDENTIFIERS]

Business 25 Social 48 Both 25 Don’t know/refused (vol.) 2

TEAPARTY: How do you feel about the Tea Party movement, would you say that you support it, oppose it, or have no view of it either way?

Support it 25 No view either way 25 Oppose it 48 Don’t know/refused (vol.) 2

INCOME: And, just for statistical purposes, in which of the following categories does your family income fall?

Under $25,000 5 $25-$35,000 6 $35-$50,000 11 $50-$75,000 12 $75-$100,000 17 Over $100,000 35 Don’t know/refused (vol.) 14

SEX: Sex of Respondent Male 48 Female 52

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 1,004 interviews of registered Virginia voters, conducted Oct.1-6, 2013. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/- 3.1% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups will be higher. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 24%. Three callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of likely voters in the 2013 Virginia elections. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.