US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters
Yardeni Research, Inc.
July 27, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents
Household Formation 1-5 Homeownership Rate 6 Number of Households 7-9 Misc 10-14
July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Household Formation Figure 1. 4 4 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (yearly percent change in 12-month average)
3 3
Mar
2 2
1 1
yardeni.com 0 0 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Figure 2. 4 4 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS & WORKING-AGE POPULATION (yearly percent change in 12-month average)
3 3
Mar
2 2
1 1 Number of Households Civilian Noninstitutional Working Age Population
yardeni.com 0 0 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Page 1 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Household Formation Figure 3. 128 128 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS* 126 (millions, ratio scale) Mar 126 124 124
122 122
120 120
118 118
116 116
114 114
112 112
110 110
108 108
106 106
104 104
102 102 yardeni.com 100 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Monthly number of households is updated quarterly with monthly figures on occupied housing units from the Housing Vacancy Survey. Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 4. 5 5 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS* (yearly change, millions)
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 Mar 1
0 0
yardeni.com -1 -1 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* Monthly number of households is updated quarterly with monthly figures on occupied housing units from the Housing Vacancy Survey. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 2 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Household Formation Figure 5. 140 140 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 130 (millions, quarterly average) 130 Q2 120 120
110 110
100 Households 100 Total (126.2) 90 Owner-Occupiers (83.3) 90 Renters (42.8) 80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
yardeni.com 30 30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 6. 5 5 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS yardeni.com (millions, yearly change)
4 4
3 3
2 2
Q1
1 1
0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* Break-adjusted. These breaks are a result of the Census occasionally altering the size of the sample and making methodological changes as well as aligning the sample data to the decennial census. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 3 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Household Formation Figure 7. 5.0 5.0 4.5 HOUSEHOLD FORMATION: OWNERS vs RENTERS 4.5 4.0 (millions, yearly change in four-quarter average) 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 Owner-Occupiers 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 Q2 1.5 1.0 1.0 .5 .5 .0 .0 -.5 -.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 Renters 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 .5 .5 Q2 .0 .0 -.5 -.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 -2.0 yardeni.com -2.5 -2.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Census Bureau and Haver Analytics.
Figure 8. 27 27 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE GROUP OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD 25 (millions) 25
23 23
21 21
19 Under 25 19 25-29 17 30-34 17 35-44 15 15
13 13
11 2020 11
9 9
7 7
5 5 yardeni.com 3 3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bureau of the Census, Income Statistics Branch, unpublished data.
Page 4 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Household Formation Figure 9. 26 26 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE GROUP OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD (millions) 24 24
22 22
20 2020 20
18 18 45-54 55-64 16 65-74 16 75 and Over
14 14
12 12
yardeni.com 10 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bureau of the Census, Income Statistics Branch, unpublished data.
Figure 10. 50 50 HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION: OCCUPIED UNITS WITH: (million units)
45 45
40 40
35 2019 35
30 30
One Person 25 25 Two Persons 3 Persons & Over
yardeni.com 20 20 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Page 5 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Homeownership Rate Figure 11. 45 45 HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION: OCCUPIED UNITS WITH: (as a percent of total occupied units)
40 40
35 35
30 30
2019
25 One Person (28.2) 25 Two Persons (34.3) 3 Persons & Over (37.6)
yardeni.com 20 20 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 12. 90 90 HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE GROUP (percent, nsa)
80 80
70 Q2 70
60 Age Group 60 Under 35 (37.8) 35-44 (61.3) 45-54 (69.4) 50 50 55-64 (75.4) 65 & Over (79.6)
40 40
yardeni.com 30 30 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 6 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Number of Households Figure 13. 70 70 RENTER OCCUPIED RATE BY AGE GROUP (percent)
60 60
50 50 Under 35 (62.2) 35-44 (38.7) 45-54 (30.6) 40 55-64 (24.6) 40 65 & Over (20.4)
30 Q2 30
20 20
yardeni.com 10 10 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 14. 28 28 NUMBER OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE GROUP (millions) 26 26
Under 35 (10.0) 24 35-44 (13.5) 24 45-54 (15.1) 22 55-64 (18.2) 22 65 & Over (27.1) 20 20
18 18
16 16 2020 14 14
12 12
10 10
yardeni.com 8 8 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 7 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Number of Households Figure 15. 20 20 NUMBER OF RENTER OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY AGE GROUP* (millions)
15 15 Under 35 (15.5) 35-44 (8.0) 45-54 (6.1) 55-64 (5.6) 10 65 & Over (6.8) 10
2020 5 5
yardeni.com 0 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* Owner-ocupied housing units minus total owner-occuppied housing units. Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 16. 38 38 RENTERS’ RATE* (percent, nsa) 37 37
36 36
35 35 Q2
34 34
33 33
32 32
31 31
yardeni.com 30 30 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
* Percent of households renting rather than owning a housing unit. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 8 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Number of Households Figure 17. 50 50 OCCUPIED UNITS WITH: (million units) One Person Five People Two People Six People 40 Three People Seven People 40 Four People 2019
30 30
20 20
10 10
yardeni.com 0 0 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 18. 50 50 TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS (as a percent of working age population)
49 49
Mar 48 48
47 47
46 46
45 45
44 44
yardeni.com 43 43 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 9 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Misc Figure 19. 50 68 TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS & PARTICIPATION RATE
49 66 Mar 48
64 47
46 62 Jun Total Households 45 (as a percent of working age population)
60 Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 44
yardeni.com 43 58 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 20. 12 12 VACANCY RATES (percent)
10 10
Homeowners (0.9) Renters (6.2) 8 8
Q2 6 6
4 4
2 2
yardeni.com 0 0 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 10 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Misc Figure 21. 70 70 NUMBER OF RENTER OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY AGE GROUP* (as a percent of total households by age)
60 60
Under 35 (60.9) 50 50 35-44 (37.3) 45-54 (28.9) 55-64 (23.5) 40 65 & Over (20.0) 40
30 30 2020
20 20
yardeni.com 10 10 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* Owner-ocupied housing units minus total owner-occuppied housing units. Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 22. 3.9 3.9
3.8 HOUSEHOLD & FAMILY AVERAGE SIZE 3.8
3.7 3.7 3.6 Persons Per: 3.6 Family (3.2) 3.5 3.5 Household (2.5) 3.4 3.4
3.3 3.3
3.2 3.2 2020 3.1 3.1
3.0 3.0
2.9 2.9
2.8 2.8
2.7 2.7
2.6 2.6 2020 2.5 2.5 yardeni.com 2.4 2.4 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Source: Current Population Reports.
Page 11 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Misc Figure 23. 20 20 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: TENANT RENT PER RENTER HOUSEHOLD (thousand dollars, saar)
Nominal 15 Q1 15 Real
Q1
10 10
5 5
yardeni.com 0 0 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 24. 2000 2000 NOMINAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion dollars, saar) May
1500 1500
Rental Income in Personal Income Owner Occupied Rent in PCE 1000 Tenant Rent in PCE 1000
500 500
yardeni.com 0 0 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Page 12 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Misc Figure 25. 3.2 3.2 POPULATION 3.0 (yearly percent change in 12-month avg) 3.0
2.8 2.8
2.6 2.6
2.4 2.4
2.2 2.2
2.0 Civilian Noninstitutional 2.0 Working-Age Population 1.8 1.8
1.6 1.6
1.4 1.4
1.2 1.2
1.0 1.0
.8 .8 Total .6 Population .6 yardeni.com Jun .4 .4 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 26. 3.5 3.5
3.3 3.3 Working Age Population (as a ratio of total number of households) 3.1 3.1 Civilian Population (as a ratio of total number of households) 2.9 2.9
2.7 2.7 Jun
2.5 2.5
2.3 2.3
2.1 2.1 Jun
yardeni.com 1.9 1.9 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau.
Page 13 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Misc Figure 27. 130 130 HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES, & NONFAMILIES 2020 (millions) 120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90 yardeni.com 80 2020 80
70 70
60 Households 60 Total 50 Families* 50 Nonfamilies** 2020 40 40
30 30
20 20 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Married couple families plus other families. **Households minus families. Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 28. 80 80 HOUSEHOLDS, FAMILIES, & NON-FAMILIES (as a percent of total households)
70 70
2020
60 60 yardeni.com Family Households* (64.9) 50 Nonfamily Households** (35.1) 50
40 40
2020
30 30
20 20 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Married couple families plus other families. ** Households minus families. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 14 / July 27, 2021 / US Demography: Household Formation, Homeowners, & Renters Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on [email protected].