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Analysis of Future Directions for Victorian Coastal Residential Property – Exploring the Myths

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Analysis of Future Directions for Victorian Coastal Residential Property – Exploring the Myths View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by RMIT Research Repository AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR VICTORIAN COASTAL RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY – EXPLORING THE MYTHS A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of (MR050) Master of Applied Science KATHRYN ROBSON B. Com; B of Business (Property) and Grad. Dip. Education School of Property, Construction & Project Management Design and Social Context Portfolio RMIT University May 2008 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I gratefully acknowledge the patience and consistent attention shown to me by Associate Professor James Baxter during this thesis process. Never once has he expressed anything but confidence in my ability to complete this venture, even when I had no confidence in myself. He has been tireless in correction of my numerous drafts and always returns them with such haste that I have had no chance to relax between versions. It is his persistence, not mine that is the result of this research and for this and all his other support, I am exceedingly grateful. I would also like to thank my colleague, Robert Webster, who has constantly been on the lookout for information that can help me in my research and Professor Ron Wakefield (Head of The School of Property, Construction and Project Management) who has supported me wholeheartedly in this endeavour. Finally a special thanks to Miranda in the library, for all her help with references. ii RMIT UNIVERSITY ABSTRACT AN ANALYSIS OF FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR VICTORIAN COASTAL RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY – EXPLORING THE MYTHS Kathryn Robson Chairperson of the Supervisory Committee: Associate Professor James Baxter School of Property, Construction and Project Management This research provides an analysis of the disparate notions and ideas, to form an overview of the possible trends in residential property for the Victorian coastal areas of the Surf Coast and the Bellarine Peninsula. It examines the interaction of the consumers, space producers and infrastructure providers as they are influenced by the three key determinants of the market, the demographic factors, economic conditions and regulatory factors. While examining the patterns of urban development on coastal Victoria over the next 20 years, the research also investigates the validity of myths that have emerged concerning the Sea Change experience, the investment market in coastal areas and the adequacy of the relevant infrastructure. The qualitative data used in this research comes from both primary and secondary sources. The primary qualitative and quantitative data was developed on the basis of the responses to a mail out questionnaire to residents from seven towns on the Bellarine Peninsula and the Surf Coast and from a number of interviews with local property experts from these areas. The secondary qualitative and quantitative data came from the results of surveys and the census, undertaken by various government departments and from interviews on television and in the press. The main thrust of this research is to answer the question “why people live where they do?” and specifically, why do they live in coastal Victoria? The residential property market is not the only reason people live where they do. The state of the property market is a major determinant, but people choose their location for a myriad of other reasons as well. They may also consider personal economic reasons, their expectations about the future in general iii and the housing market in particular, climatic or geographic reasons, psychological reasons, emotional reasons, technological reasons, all or a combination of these factors. Lifestyle changes were found to be the major reason why people chose to live on the Bellarine Peninsula or the Surf Coast, as expressed in the surveys, interviews and relevant data. The survey results also raised questions about the future of coastal Victorian residential development especially with reference to the fragile coastal environment. Myths are created over time and are fuelled by media attention and local discussion. Sometimes the evidence finds them to be true, sometimes they are disproved. The three myths introduced in this research are separately discussed with regard to residential development on the Surf Coast and the Bellarine Peninsula. There is no doubt that people will continue to move to coastal Victoria and probably in increasing numbers, but there is serious doubt that the infrastructure will be ready for them. The coastal communities and the coastal environment are at serious risk from the increased growth on both population and tourism. It is only with the support of all three tiers of government that the future requirements of coastal communities will be met. There needs to be a policy framework of sustainable growth and a funding approach to enable the local councils, not only on the Bellarine Peninsula and the Surf Coast, but on all Australian coastal areas, to embark on an extensive program to provide the necessary services and infrastructure for these changing environments. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................ii TABLE OF CONTENTS…......................................................................................... v INDEX OF FIGURES AND TABLES ..........................................................................vii CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION .............................................................................1 The Significance of Residential Property in Coastal Victoria..............................1 Analytical Justification..........................................................................................7 Research Problem and Research Questions .......................................................21 Rationale ..............................................................................................................22 Methodology ........................................................................................................23 Limitations to the Research.................................................................................25 Conclusion............................................................................................................26 CHAPTER TWO - LITERATURE REVIEW................................................................27 Demographic Factors ..........................................................................................29 Economic Indicators............................................................................................36 Regulatory Factors ..............................................................................................45 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................53 CHAPTER THREE - WHY PEOPLE LIVE WHERE THEY DO?................................55 Economic Snapshot..............................................................................................57 Market confidence and expectation ....................................................................59 Climatic/Geographic Considerations..................................................................62 Psychological reasons ..........................................................................................62 Emotional reasons ...............................................................................................63 Technological reasons..........................................................................................63 Contributing factors for future trends in Victoria’s housing market ...............64 Why People move to the Coast?..........................................................................69 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................71 CHAPTER FOUR - A CASE STUDY OF THE BELLARINE PENINSULA AND THE SURF COAST...............................................................................................................71 The Bellarine Peninsula.......................................................................................72 The Surf Coast.....................................................................................................76 Why the Bellarine Peninsula and the Surf Coast? .............................................78 Case Study on Ocean Grove................................................................................81 Case Study on Barwon Heads .............................................................................82 Case Study on Point Lonsdale/Queenscliff .........................................................83 Analysis of Data from the Questionnaire for the Bellarine Peninsula...............83 Analysis of Data from the Questionnaire for the Surf Coast.............................90 Merged Analysis of Data for both Coastal Regions............................................92 Summary of Survey Data ....................................................................................94 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................95 CHAPTER FIVE - ARE THE MYTHS TRUE OR FALSE? .........................................98 There is inadequate infrastructure for the level of coastal development ..........98 Sea Change is happening in Victoria at an accelerated pace...........................102 v The investment market and economic conditions have
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