2/27/2015

Forecasts from SPC Forecasts are one thing; People are another!

Mot ivators and Important Factors Influencing Tornado Decisions in 19 May 2013 Oklahoma during May 2013 Dr. Daphne LaDue Dr. James Correia Jr Julia Ross 20 May 2013 Dr. Joe Ripberger, Dr. Jack Friedman Dr. Harold Brooks University of Oklahoma –CAPS, CIMMS, CASR NOAA‐SPC, NSSL 31 May 2013

19 May 2013 Tornadoes 20 May 2013 Newcastle‐ OKC‐Moore Tornado

Tornado Emergency

Strikes to Norman, OKC, Shawnee, Edmond, and Strikes to Unincorporated areas Newcastle, OKC, Moore

Motivation Context about driving

• May 2011 tornadoes shelter seeking “Driving away” is complicated behavior • Vehicles are not safe shelters • 2 deadly events in (Marshall et al 2008) but are central OK on 19‐20 safer than mobile homes May 2013 culminates (Hammer and Schmidlin 2002) on 31 May • • Mass exodus ensues When to drive makes all the difference Semi Trailers getting • Many fatalities from thrown in Dallas, TX tornadoes and flash • How many people drive away flooding on 31 May and to where is important.

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How do we learn from Surveys these events?

Survey developed • Tested using cognitive interviews: Will the • 48 questions, 20‐45 minutes questions we ask be answered the way we • Collected data on: envision? – Demographics • Three samples: – What people did during the three separate events. – Nov 2013—National Weather Festival (34) – Peoples stories. – Mar 2014—National Weather Center Snowball sampling (43) – If people knew about, had, would or could mitigate/protect homes from tornadoes – Aug 2014—More sampling at the NWC (20) • 97 total responses

Demographics Table 1: Example Survey Questions Question Number Question 2 Where were you when the storms occurred? Underrepresented 6a As the storms approached your area, what did you do? minorities, especially

6b If you took shelter, what type of shelter was it? Hispanics If you drove away, when and why did you decide to do 7,8 so? 9 If you drove away, what happened? If you have a story to tell about how these or other 28 events have influenced the way that you think about Provided by John Sharp Association of Central Oklahoma and respond to tornadoes, please do so here… Governments

Demographics Age and Gender More female than male respondents Age distribution relatively flat

Oversampled higher education demo

Income distribution is not representative

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Where are they from? Methods of analysis

Focusing here on sheltering v. driving • Quantitative Analysis Scattered sample – Trying to understand, in our words, what towards OKC but happened via structured survey questions concentrated in Norman • Qualitative Analysis – Trying to understand, in their words, what happened via open ended survey questions – Found themes in the stories

What happened to them? Past Experience 54% have (in)direct experience with tornadoes

• 11% reported injuries • 21% reported major damage • 47% reported some damage • 54% have (in)direct experience with tornadoes

Stay or drive away? What did people do? For any event: Overall 21% drove away 20% drove to 21% drove shelter away (19% drove 49% sheltered at to a shelter) home 9% sheltered with a neighbor 22% sheltered in a public place Zip Codes of Zip Codes 35% sheltered participants who drove

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Where did they shelter? Why did people drive away?

Storm My more 29% building 33% dangerous Personalization of danger Interior Storm unsafe Room Shelter Memory of recent Suggest 8% 15% storms 10% by media Other Basement Public Other reason Building Suggest by fam or friend Saw others drive away

Drive vs. Did Not Drive Business Evacuated (1 of 2) 2 told to leave by a business 5evade: 2 people on May 19, 3 others on May 20 4 drove to shelter* (other than to family’s home) May 19: 6* drivers cited media suggestion (2 unclear) • “We were at [a casino] in Shawnee. We had to cash out and 6 storm chasers + 1 public safety person get out. We got in our car and went to a friend’s house in 48 Drove Shawnee that had a storm shelter and watched TV in garage as tornado went over.” • ✓ drove away 3pm 27 drove to shelter with, or gather, family together Next two events: • 20th: ✓ stayed home; watched TV; sheltered at home • 31st: ✓ cancelled plans; watched TV; sheltered at home 46 Did not “We built a metal house with hills surrounding us. Anchored steel posts in concrete foundation. We grew up in Oklahoma so we are VERY weather aware when forecast indicates storms.”

Survey #101

Business Evacuated (2 of 2) Drove to Evade (5) May 19: “We could see the May 20: “[Drove] 15 minutes before No answers for first event. storm approaching as we tornado hit 19th and Santa May 20: left [our home northwest of Fe...Stopped at Lease Road on Santa • “movies at [a movie theater in NE OKC]...went home when evacuated” Wellston]...passed storm Fe in Norman and watched as [the chasers headed toward our tornado] went north of my house...” area.” Last event: May 20: 4th & Eastern in Moore • ✓ don’t remember (what I did); storms May 19: “At home in WalMart “When it appeared the didn’t approach; didn’t drive location of respondent Pink...drove up the street to tornado would hit the store I and clear blue skies...watched two others got in a vehicle and Those who evaded from businesses did not storm go over my home.” headed south on Eastern. The drive in subsequent events. tornado path was just south of the store...”

Survey #271 Survey #232, 140, 233, 126, 260

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Drove to Evade (5) Drove to Shelter* (1 person) May 20: “My family got into our van and began driving away *Shelter other than with family, did not cite media as reason from our house and the path of the tornado. As we drove we listened to the radiocast about the storm to know where 19th: Drove to a neighbor’s shelter (only event answered) to go. We stopped after awhile though I don’t remember • ✓ general memory; drove when storms reached me where we stopped and the tornado had ended by then.” two kids at home May 31 they stayed at home, sheltering in an interior room location of respondent Those who evaded did so in the last minutes.

Survey #260 Surveys #262

Drove to Public Building* Media Suggestion (1 of 4*) (3 people) May 19: home; sheltered at home, interior room *Shelter other than with family, did not cite media as reason May 20: cancelled plans; stayed home; monitored radio/TV 19th & 31st: Drove to NWC (at work 2nd event) May 31: • May 19: ✓ drove to shelter; sheltered public building • Before the storms: At home watching TV • May 31: ✓ cancelled plans; drove to shelter • ✓ cancelled plans; stayed home; watched TV 20th: Drove to parent’s house, then Norman Regional Hospital • ✓ drove out of the area; drove when warning issued • ✓ left early; drove [to NRH] as storms approached • Why: ✓ general memory; media suggested; building unsafe 31st: Drove to NWC (out of town first two events) “Got caught in a traffic jam on us 177 south. Took over 1 hour to • ✓ left 6:45pm; as storms approached drive 20 miles south (normally takes 30 minute). Arrived in Asher • ✓ seemed more dangerous; building unsafe to out run storm but was caught in a hail core. Suffered damage “I drove from my [apartment in s. Norman] to the NWC and to my car was listening to channel [x] and [the meteorologist] sheltered...until the all clear was given.” advising people to ‘head south’.”

Surveys #202, 282, 288 Survey #100

Media Suggestion (2 of 4*) Media Suggestion (3 of 4*) May 19: home; May 20: jury duty; sheltered at courthouse May 31: “I was at home watching all the coverage on TV –until May 19: at home; sheltered at home the weatherman said, ‘if you are not underground you won’t May 20: “I was at work” be safe.’ So my family and I left to seek a public storm shelter.” • ✓ left early; sheltered at home; interior room • ✓ Drove at time of warning; when storms reached them May 31: “home then basement of a friends house...I relayed • “[I] don’t really remember the time...when it got really close my concerns about the high probability of severe weather to to the Tinker/Dell City area” my family and friends” • Why: ✓ Seemed more dangerous; media suggestion • ✓ drove to a shelter; sheltered in basement • “The traffic was gridlocked...the shelters in the mid del city area were closed. We tried to outrun it and ended up taking • Why: ✓general memory; media suggestion; building unsafe shelter at a friend of a friends house in Chocktaw.” “my friend who has a basement suggested that we come to her • “I was so furious that the underground shelters used for years house for the storm.” were all closed down”

Survey #265 Survey #108

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Media Suggestion (4 of 4*) Media Suggestion Summary May 19: flying home from vacation May 20: “I just landed OKC that morning...taking nap at home in OKC These four only mentioned media suggestion for the third area.” event. • ✓ stayed home; sheltered at home; interior room May 31: “Left b/c of weather. Went home picked up dog and drove They all sheltered at home (or work, on 20th) until the last south to Lloyd Noble for shelter” event. • ✓ drove at time of warning; left 5:30pm • Why: ✓media suggestion; building unsafe 3 of 4 said they: “We do not have a storm shelter at my home. Drove south to Lloyd Noble. Took an hour b/c of traffic. Stayed at Lloyd Noble until • felt their building was unsafe weather passed. Was hard to get home b/c of flooding. A lot of • were caught in traffic damage in neighborhood/area —fences down roof damage tree damage down power lines. We did not have power.”

Survey #333

Drove for Family Reasons Shelter at Family’s Home

Several people regularly drive to a family member’s home; usually a storm shelter there Shelter at a family Be w/family member’s home • (6) collecting children and going to parents’/in‐laws shelter • (3) no children mentioned; went to parents’ shelter • (2) collected children and went to friend/neighbor’s shelter Both

Surveys #340, 303, 192, 308, 288, 332, 169, 283, 142, 158, 122

Example: Shelter at Family’s Home Be with Family May 19: “Drove to my parent’s house about 10 mins away. We watched media coverage from there. In case shelter was The single most common reason for driving was to be with needed we would have proceeded to the storm cellar.” family, for many reasons, including: May 20: at work; sheltered in nearby bank vault May 31: “Drove from my house to my parents’ house which To rescue or protect family: was damaged byy the Ma 20 tornado and [found that the] • “I drove to my home in SE Moore due to my handicapped storm cellar was flooded. We decided to head to their mother being alone.” neighbor’s house who had a safe room.” • “Told [my sister] that if things got bad –I would be there. • ✓ drove at time of warning; seemed more dangerous; When the weather looked really bad (I thought a tornado general memory; media suggestion; building unsafe was going to hit the trailer park where she lived) I left to go get her [and her kids].”

Survey #332 Surveys #328, 187, 125, 326, 314, 170, 330*, 135, 258, 260, 315

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Be With Family Be With Family

To gather family together, in storm shelter: To gather family together, in storm shelter: “Went to Central Jr. High School when the rain started. I was May 19: storms did not approach; sheltered at home waiting for my granddaughter. The lady in the car next to me May 20: “I was at work when the storms formed and began to told me that I had to go in to get her so I did. As we came out develop. Shortly before 2p CDT having examined radar imagery and started across the parking lot the sirens went off. All I could that indicated a severe thunderstorm developing W of Norman I think was that I had to get [my granddaughter] home so I sped left work and travelled home (E Moore) where a child just across Main St. to [her] house. We got in the house [gathered arrived from school picked up early by her grandmother. I emergency supplies] and went into the storm shelter. A few ensured my child, mother‐in‐law, and I were in the storm shelter minutes later we heard ar ca overhead. My [granddaughter] about 10 mins before the tornado passed by.” looked out and it was her Dad. He came into the shelter and it May 31: at home with family; stayed home; sheltered at home in seemed to me to be just a couple of minutes ahead of the storm shelter tornado.” near Veteran’s Memorial Park in Moore

Survey #326 Survey #315

Be with Family Be with Family

Be with family, away from the storms: Be with family: • May 19: watched news reports at home together • “On May 20th 2013 we had our 5 yr old son in school. • May 20: “We drove away, but chose to do so way before the Though we were not concerned with a direct hit from a storms developed. My [meteorologist relative] gave me an tornado we elected to pick him up from school early. We did overview of what the situation was looking like...and we not want him to experience ‘shelter in place’ at his decided to leave the immediate area. We went west past the school...we wanted him home with us.” dryline where we were out of the path.” • May 31: “Watched storm coverage at our aprt (temporary living arrangement due to our primary residence suffering damage on May 20).” Two others drove away just before or as the storm was hitting on May 20.

Surveys # 187, 330*, 125 Survey #314

Expressions of Fear Explicit Expressions

• 61% expressed fear, directly (31%) or indirectly • During the storm, while driving: (30%) – “People were driving in the wrong lane...” – “standstill interstate traffic made me nervous” • Before the storm: – “traffic was unbearable...gridlock panic” – “relayed concerns about the high probability” – “my neighbor was clearly on edge and scared” – “fear for daughter’s safety at school” – “I saw expressions of panic on people’s faces” • During the storm: – “at this time I pulled over because I became – “taking shelter with my terrified 3rd graders” overwhelmed” – “before we got [to our shelter]...neighbors [already – “All I could think wast tha I had to get [my granddaughter] there]...we didn’t all fit” home”

Surveys #108, 158, 282, 308 Surveys #134, 194, 265, 288, 312, 327

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Take‐Aways Take‐Aways

• Primary reasons people drove: • Most people who took our survey had a clear purpose – gather family • Larger cultural changes/background: – shelter with family – caring for aging parents, kids – businesses evacuated – changes in vulnerability – media suggestion + building unsafe – advances in public understanding • Positive: mobile home=bad • Traffic heavy east metro area on May 20, and • Negative: all homes are unsafe* • Negative: you will die if not underground throughout the area on May 31 *Ripberger et al (2015): “…high consequence language … may cause individuals to question the level of safety that their residence can provide and, as a result, induce them to flee in search of what they perceive to be a safer location.”

Wisdom Gained

• “I will not take severe weather warnings for granted” • “My response to the whole ‘season’ has changed. I do not wait till sirens sound to be where I need to be safe.” • “I had never felt the need to invest in a storm shelter...but the traffic gridlock that day ruined my plan to drive out of the danger zone.”

Looking forward: “I will listen to the early warnings from the professionals and get my family together before the storms hit.”

Surveys #280, 303, 339, 314

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