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INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS CAMP POPULATION DENSITY and MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY in NORTHERN SYRIA a Thesi

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INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS CAMP POPULATION DENSITY and MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY in NORTHERN SYRIA a Thesi FORGOTTEN CITIZENS: INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS CAMP POPULATION DENSITY AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY IN NORTHERN SYRIA A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Public Policy By Mahir Ali Sheikh B.A. Washington D.C. April 13, 2021 Copyright 2021 by Mahir Ali Sheikh All Rights Reserved ii FORGOTTEN CITIZENS: INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS CAMP POPULATION DENSITY AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY IN NORTHERN SYRIA Mahir Ali Sheikh, B.A. Advisor: Stipica Mudrazijia Ph.D. Abstract The Syrian humanitarian emergency is one of the largest in recent memory and has deteriorated beyond expectations leaving millions displaced. According to UNHCR, there are 6.6 million Syrian Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), many of whom do not have access to basic needs and services to escape protracted displacement. Those who cannot find shelter in urban environments create informal campsites or migrate towards camps set up by humanitarian organizations throughout the country. Campsites increase access to resources and create a stable community that in turn increases economic and social opportunities. Yet, Syria's volatile situation has led camps to be overcrowded, in turn, limiting resources and having downward pressure on livelihoods. The higher population density in these camps increases poverty levels and limits this population's upward mobility opportunities that have already been devastated by war and violent conflict. Therefore, this thesis aims to test the hypothesis that increased population density within IDP camps is associated with poverty. Data from the Assistance Coordination Unit (a non-profit based in Syria) provides insight into IDP camps' access to basic needs and essential services and population dynamics, giving clarity on the current situation of Syrian IDPs located in the Northern governates of Idlib and Aleppo. This thesis will utilize the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) to identify which camps are multidimensionally poor given access to health, shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene, assets, and education. Once poverty is determined on a camp-to-camp basis, the relationship between population density and poverty will be analyzed to test this thesis's hypothesis and identify the magnitude of the association between the two variables if one exists. iii Acknowledgments Thank you to my professors at Georgetown (Elizabeth Ferris, Jeffrey Glick, Jennifer Wistrand, Franck Weibe) who have provided me with the knowledge to explore humanitarian emergencies and the policies that impact the lives of millions. A special thanks to my advisor Stipica Mudrazijia, Eric Gardner and Pooya Almasi who have supported me and guided me throughout this process. Thank you to my family and friends who have supported me and encouraged me throughout graduate school helping me find the motivation to complete my education at Georgetown University. iv Table of Contents Introduction .....................................................................................................................................1 Background .....................................................................................................................................3 Defining an Internally Displaced Persons........................................................................... 3 The Case of Syria ................................................................................................................ 3 Internal Displacement ......................................................................................................... 4 Literature Review 5 Factors Causing Displacement ............................................................................................ 5 Limitations to Humanitarian Assistance ............................................................................. 6 Internally Displaced Persons Camps, Populations Density, and Poverty ........................... 7 Conceptual Framework .................................................................................................................11 Data and Methodology ..................................................................................................................13 Assistance Coordination Unit Data and Scope .................................................................13 Using Multidimensional Poverty Index ............................................................................14 Variables of Interest ..........................................................................................................16 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 18 Descriptive Results ...........................................................................................................18 Inferential Results: Multidimensional Poverty Index and Population Density ................19 Inferential Results: Multidimensional Poverty Index and Camp Area ............................. 20 Discussion .....................................................................................................................................23 Discussion of Findings ......................................................................................................23 Limitations ........................................................................................................................24 Policy Recommendations ..................................................................................................26 v Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................29 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................31 References .....................................................................................................................................38 vi List of Figures Figure 1: Implications of Violent Conflict on Displacement and Poverty ...................................12 Figure 2: Visual Representation of Challenges Associated with IDP Classification ....................25 Figure 3: Structure of UNDP Multidimensional Poverty Index ...................................................32 Figure 4: Camp Population Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................34 Figure 5: WASH Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................................34 Figure 6: Education Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................35 Figure 7: Shelter Descriptive Statistics ......................................................................................... 35 Figure 8: Assets Descriptive Statistics ..........................................................................................36 vii List of Tables Table 1: Outcomes of Camp-Based, Non-Camp Based IDPs and Host Communities ................. 10 Table 2: Indicators and Variables Used to Derive Multidimensional Poverty Index ....................17 Table 3: Impact of Population Density on MPI using an OLS Regression Analysis ....................21 Table 4: Impact of Camp Area on MPI using an OLS Regression Analysis ................................ 22 Table 5: Classification for Camp Size .......................................................................................... 31 Table 6: Summary Statistics of All Observed Variables ..............................................................33 viii Introduction At the end of 2019, there were 79.5 million individuals who were forcibly displaced, of which 26 million are refugees, while another 45.7 million are internally displaced persons (IDPs) (UNHCR(b) 2020). In Syria's case, a vast number of the population cannot cross international borders and obtain refugee status leaving no choice but to stay within their home country where violent conflict exacerbates the humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 6.6 million Syrian IDPs are outnumbering the total Syrian refugee population (UNHCR(b) 2020). These IDPs are highly vulnerable due to instability and limited to no access to public services. For this reason, humanitarian organizations play a crucial role in mitigating some of the challenges that displaced populations face. Specifically, IDP camps provide housing and resources to those who have lost close to everything and do not have any alternatives. The magnitude of the war and the damage done to public infrastructure has limited Syrian nationals' access to shelter, the documents needed to cross international borders or to identify themselves, subsequently increasing reliance on organizations like UNHCR to provide essential services. Yet, these camps (whether informal or set up by humanitarian organizations) are meant to support a limited number of households and individuals. High population densities within these camps attribute to over-crowded shelters, limited resources, and deteriorating facilities that fail to meet basic needs and leave displaced populations in a state of acute poverty. With limited opportunities for upward mobility, IDP populations are stuck in situations of protracted displacement. The definition of protracted displacement
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