Policy Notes July 2021
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY JULY 2021 POLICY NOTES NO. 108 Deals, Drones, and National Will The New Era in Turkish Power Projection Rich Outzen he Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) attracted much attention in 2020 for its devastating employment of unmanned aerial vehicles during combat in TSyria, Libya, and the Caucasus. UAVs (drones) were just one dimension of Turkish regional interventions, but they were particularly potent symbols in an age of ubiquitous cameras and Internet connections.1 A number of analysts have assessed the tactical and operational impact of Turkish drones.2 Yet the Turkish drone program is just part of a revamped national approach to power Photo: Yasin Bulbul/ projection in neighboring regions—an approach with economic, diplomatic, Presidential Palace/Handout strategic, and reputational effects, as well as implications on the battlefield. via REUTERS An expanded network of Turkish military agreements and overseas basing, the maturation of partner and proxy relationships, the expansion of the defense industry beyond UAVs, military doctrine to integrate new sensors RICH OUTZEN DEALS, DRONES, AND NATIONAL WILL and weapons, and—perhaps most critically—the development of risk-tolerant political will in foreign Abbreviations affairs have enabled Turkey to become a formidable hard-power player in the Middle East, North Africa, GNA Government of National Accord (Libya) the Caucasus, and the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Scholarly analysis is therefore needed that LNA Libyan National Army both contextualizes new capabilities for Western audiences and assesses the role and impact of these MIT Milli Istihbarat Teskilati (Turkey’s developments for the coming years. Signaling larger National Intelligence Organization) change within the Turkish military, drones represent a technical leap wrapped in a “revolution in military PKK Kurdistan Workers Party (Turkey) affairs” embedded in a regional realignment.
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