The Middle East is experiencing growing tensions as a result of com- peting geopolitical agendas and reciprocal meddling in the internal FOSTERING affairs of states. This volume – the outcome of a joint FEPS–IAI pro- ject – examines various means to foster de-escalation, dialogue and A NEW SECURITY confidence-building in the Middle East. It does so by mapping the viewpoints, interests and threat perceptions of key regional and inter- ARCHITECTURE IN national actors in the region. Individual country case studies, written by leading scholars from the US, Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, Saudi THE MIDDLE EAST Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Europe, are coupled with a final chapter analysing the results of an expert survey addressing modalities through which regional and international actors may sup- port efforts to de-escalate tensions and assist the region in developing new, home-grown mechanisms for dialogue and regional cooperation. FEPS is the progressive political foundation established at the European level. Created in 2007, it aims at establishing an intellec- tual crossroad between social democracy and the European project. As a platform for ideas and dialogue, FEPS works in close collabora- tion with social democratic organisations, and in particular national foundations and think tanks across and beyond Europe, to tackle the challenges that we are facing today. FEPS inputs fresh thinking at the core of its action and serves as an instrument for pan-Euro- pean, intellectual political reflection. IAI is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of FOSTERING A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST European integration and multilateral cooperation. IAI is part of a vast international research network, and interacts and cooperates with the Italian government and its ministries, European and inter- Khaled ALMEZAINI national institutions, universities, major national economic actors, Abdullah K. AL-SAUD the media and the most authoritative international think tanks. Meliha Benli ALTUNIŞIK László ANDOR This book is edited by FEPS and IAI with the financial support of the European Silvia COLOMBO Parliament and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Andrea DESSÌ Cooperation. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the authors and do Ehud EIRAN not necessarily reflect the views of the European Parliamentor of the Italian Flavia FUSCO Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. JIN Liangxiang Joseph A. KÉCHICHIAN Saeed KHATIBZADEH Daniel KURTZER Ekaterina STEPANOVA Nathalie TOCCI FOSTERING A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST EDITED BY SILVIA COLOMBO AND ANDREA DESSÌ FOSTERING A NEW SECURITY ARCHITECTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST EDITED BY SILVIA COLOMBO AND ANDREA DESSÌ Published in November 2020 by FEPS Foundation for European Progressive Studies Avenue des Arts 46 B-1000 Brussels, Belgium T: +32 2 234 69 00 Email: [email protected] Website: https://www.feps-europe.eu Twitter: @FEPS_Europe IAI Istituto Affari Internazionali Via dei Montecatini 17 I-00186 Rome, Italy T: +39 063224360 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.iai.it Twitter: @IAIonline Copyright © 2020 by Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) The present study does not represent the collective views of FEPS and IAI but only of the authors. Volume produced in the framework of the FEPS-IAI project “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. The project has benefited from the financial support of the European Parliament and of the Policy Planning Unit of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation pursuant to art. 23-bis of Presidential Decree 18/1967. The views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Parliament or the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. Edited by Silvia Colombo and Andrea Dessì FEPS project coordinators: Hedwig Giusto and Susanne Pfeil IAI project coordinator: Andrea Dessì Cover design: Flavia Fusco Page layout: Luca Mozzicarelli – Nuova Cultura, Rome, Italy Printed by Edizioni Nuova Cultura, Rome ISBN 9788833653501 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword László Andor and Nathalie Tocci 7 Chapter 1 The Middle East’s Evolving Security Landscape: Prospects for Regional Cooperation and US Engagement Daniel Kurtzer 11 Chapter 2 Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s Ekaterina Stepanova 37 Chapter 3 China and Middle East Security Issues: Challenges, Perceptions and Positions Jin Liangxiang 67 Chapter 4 The New Turn in Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Regional and Domestic Insecurities Meliha Benli Altunışık 91 Chapter 5 Structural Shifts and Regional Security: A View from Israel Ehud Eiran 115 Chapter 6 The Evolving Security Landscape Around the Arabian Peninsula: A Saudi Perspective Abdullah K. Al-Saud and Joseph A. Kéchichian 139 Chapter 7 HOPE for a New Regional Security Architecture: Toward a Hormuz Community Saeed Khatibzadeh 167 Chapter 8 The UAE’s Security Perceptions in the Middle East: Regional Challenges, Alliances and the Diversification of Partners Khalid Almezaini 201 Chapter 9 Collective Security and Multilateral Engagement in the Middle East: Pathways for EU Policy Silvia Colombo and Andrea Dessì 223 Chapter 10 Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey Flavia Fusco 249 Abbreviations and Acronyms 301 Contributors 303 FOREWORD FOREWORD LÁSZLÓ ANDOR AND NATHALIE TOCCI Recognised as one of the least integrated regions in the world, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is in dire need of new and agreed mechanisms for de-escalation. Ten years since the outbreak of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the re- gion has experienced further fragmentation, conflict and rival- ry, with multiple overlapping instability drivers emanating from within and beyond the Middle East itself. Weak institutions, fraying social contracts and mounting socio-economic pres- sure have mixed with resurgent foreign interventionism and a significant deepening of geopolitical faultlines and militarisa- tion, creating a volatile mix of state and societal grievances that may well erupt into new conflicts or popular mobilisations in the not too distant future. The dire state of the regional system is perhaps best reflected by the significant weakening of traditional forums for regional or sub-regional cooperation in the MENA. The League of Arab States, the Gulf Cooperation Council or the Arab Maghreb Un- ion are all suffering from internal divisions and shortcomings, proving unable to tackle the growing challenges that face all states and societies in the MENA. Meanwhile, the deepening crisis of multilateralism at the global level has fragmented in- ternational efforts to foster dialogue and deconfliction in the Middle East, adding to the complexity of launching new diplo- matic efforts aimed at overcoming zero-sum logics of compe- tition and moving the region towards a more cooperative and progressive plane. From the standpoint of the European Union and its member states, the current regional (dis)order in the Middle East rep- resents both a threat and wakeup call pointing to the need 7 LÁSZLÓ ANDOR AND NATHALIE TOCCI for more proactive engagement before the next crisis erupts. While acknowledging the EU’s limited capacity to carry forth such ambitious goals of de-escalation and security network- ing in the Middle East, the EU’s unique history and institutional setup do provide Europe with important tools and legitimacy to engage in such efforts, particularly in light of the EU’s em- phasis on multilateralism, inclusivity and international law as fundamental principles that should inform such efforts. Against the backdrop of mounting concern regarding future trajectories of the region, the Foundation for European Pro- gressive Studies and the Istituto Affari Internazionali, with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Interna- tional Cooperation, launched a year-long research and out- reach project examining new and old efforts to foster security cooperation in the region. Entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East: Challenges and Prospects”, the project set out to map the fundamental viewpoints, interests and threat perceptions of various state actors active in the Middle East as a preliminary exercise to inform more concrete discussions on possible models, principles and mechanisms to foster deconfliction and security cooperation in the region. The results of the year-long project are contained in the pres- ent volume. This is composed of nine country-case studies drafted by leading scholars from these respective countries (the United States, Russia, China, Turkey, the United Arab Emir- ates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and the European Union) and a tenth chapter containing the results of a high-level expert sur- vey targeting disparate experts and practitioners from these regions. The diversity of opinions and viewpoints contained in this volume provide important insights as to the challenges that lie ahead but also the benefits that may flow from a more concerted effort to foster security networking and cooperation in the Middle East. Guided by a conviction that progressive policies offer the best chance for developing positive agendas for cooperation, the