middle class and broke: new polls issue 208 | july 2013 www.prospect-magazine.co.uk july 2013 | £4.50 Britain’s folly in Syria britain’s folly in syria Plus The Da Vinci delusion CliVe James Unions—their great failure DaViD gooDharT What’s wrong with France? ChrisTine oCkrenT We’re all machiavelli now JonaThan poWell poet of postwar Britain JonaThan Coe True cost of eU exit: richard lambert In 1912 Malcolm Campbell christened his car “Blue Bird” and a legend was born. More than 100 years later this iconic marque continues to challenge for world speed records using futuristic electric vehicles. Christopher Ward is proud to be the Official Timing Partner for Bluebird and, to celebrate our partnership we have released this exceptional timepiece in a limited edition of 1,912 pieces. 174_ChristopherWard_Prospect.indd 1 10/06/2013 08:16 174_ChristopherWard_Prospect.indd 2 10/06/2013 08:16 We explore further. 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Telephone calls may be recorded. aberdeen-asset.co.uk Please quote G PM 07 0613 Prospect G PM 07.indd 1 10/06/2013 16:42 prospect july 2013 3 Foreword Give us the real EU figures 5th Floor, 23 savile row, london W1s 2et Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive Bronwen Maddox Editor at large David Goodhart Deputy editor james elwes there is a particular intense look that Nick clegg has when Managing editor jonathan Derbyshire Books editor David Wolf he tells you just how many jobs Britain will lose if it leaves Creative director David Killen Production editor jessica Abrahams the european union. “three million,” he says, his eyes Online editor Daniel cohen Editorial assistants David Anderson, Daniel bright with certainty, marking each syllable with a slice of Bowman, Mirren Gidda, Matt Wolfson his hand. Publishing President & co-founder Derek coombs But he has no grounds to be so sure (although his own Commercial director Alex stevenson job, as the coalition’s most outspoken voice in favour of Publishing consultant David Hanger Circulation marketing director yvonne EU membership, might be an early casualty of a uK exit). Dwerryhouse Digital marketing: tim De la salle Neither does David cameron, in declaring the present Director of sales Iain Adams 020 7255 1934 arrangements intolerable for this country without the Advertising sales manager Dan jefferson 020 7255 1934 renegotiation of the “terms of membership” on which he has now embarked. When Head of partnerships and events Adam Bowie 020 7255 1934 pressed on whether Britain’s membership is overall a cost or a benefit, ministers Finance manager pauline joy and civil servants scrabble for the few studies that have so far attempted an answer, Editorial advisory board David cannadine, clive cowdery, Ac or brandish scattered statistics from the pro and anti europe camps, based on Grayling, peter Hall, john Kay, peter Kellner, Nader Mousavizadeh, toby Mundy, robin assumptions so different as to make comparison nonsensical. Niblett, jean seaton richard lambert (p36) has conducted an impressive review of this scrappy, Associate editors Hephzibah Anderson, tom chatfield, treacherous battle as part of his passionate defence of Britain remaining a full james crabtree, Andy Davis, edward Docx, David edmonds, sam Knight, Ian Irvine, member of the EU. that is a case with which I strongly agree—and for the same sam leith, emran Mian, elizabeth pisani, reasons as he gives. looking at the likely impact on growth immediately following Wendell steavenson, james Woodall Contributing editors a British exit, contrary to all the hyperbolic claims, there is not a strong case either philip Ball, Anthony Dworkin, josef joffe, way (and clegg take note—the claims about jobs immediately lost do not spring Anatole Kaletsky, Michael lind, joy lo Dico, erik tarloff from any solid survey). similarly, claims about the cost, or benefit, of “red tape” Annual subscription rates to business pull both ways; again, little good work has yet been done. But one UK £49; Student £27 Europe £55; Student £32.50 powerful argument is that Britain would lose its appeal to foreign investment; the Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 prospect subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, effect would take a few years to be pronounced, but the impact on growth and jobs Kent science park, sittingbourne, me9 8gu Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 then hard to reverse. Fax 01795 414 555 think tanks and academics are now embarking on more thorough studies, but Email [email protected] Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe none has completed a proper “audit”—and the government has not even started. cheques payable to prospect publishing ltd. subscription refunds must be made in this is no basis on which to ask British people to vote “In” or “out” in 2017. this writing to prospect within four weeks of a government—not least because of the clash of views within the coalition—owes new order or renewal, and are subject to an administration charge of £15. No refunds are the uK a proper review, driven by a cross-party parliamentary commission. that paid on quarterly subscriptions. should look at the status quo, an exit (and the alternatives for that), and the ways the views represented in this magazine are not necessarily those of prospect publishing of improving the single market if Britain stayed in, such as properly opening up ltd. Best endeavours have been taken in all the market for services—hugely of benefit to this country. cases to represent faithfully the views of all contributors and interviewees. the publisher All this is not to say that a role in the EU should be judged in purely economic accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or the consequences thereof. terms. Britain gains in its influence in the world from its membership (seeThe Newstrade distribution Syria Trap, p22). It is a delusion of an old-fashioned kind of Atlanticism to seymour Distribution ltd 2 east poultry Avenue, london, EC1A 9PT think that the united states would pay as much attention to the uK if it quit the tel: 020 7429 4000 european club. And this country gains from the reinforcement of shared values Images and culture across the european continent. All the same, the battle that has begun Cover image: james Harkin Cartoons by: Grizelda, royston, logan, is being fought in a storm of spurious economic claims. Give us the real numbers— Aaron, At, Mt, len, Wilbur, roger latham and start the work on them now. ISSN: 13595024 prospecT july 2013 5 Contents July 2013 This month Features Arts & books 06 If I ruled the world richard branson 22 The Syria trap 66 Postwar poet 08 Recommends Is Britain’s plan to arm the rebels a Is David Kynaston an objective historian? jonathan coe 10 Letters dangerous mistake? james harkin 70 Heroic absurdity of Dan Brown plus stephen collins’s cartoon strip. His new book is almost worth reading. Opinions clive james 71 More human than you think 14 Whistleblowing on spies Richard Rogers has the answers. geoffrey robertson adam gopnik 15 Reform the Lords 74 The great divide nigel farage Don’t make the NHS into a market. 15 Pick your own laws david owen diane roberts 75 Books in brief 17 Politics and the Bank of England paul tucker 18 Will China reabsorb Taiwan? 30 Middle-class survivalism Fiction jessica abrahams The government has you in its 76 Nate’s pain is now 19 Leave me alone sights. andy davis sam lipsyte terry eagleton plus Fearing for our future peter kellner Life and The fightback 80 Leith on life david boyle Negotiating the man hug. sam leith 20 What if...? 81 Life of the mind andrew adonis The truth of body language. anna blundy Science 81 Matters of taste Brooklyn foodies. 58 Gene machines 36 Exit? It’ll cost us wendell steavenson Revolutionary The Eu is a drag, but leaving would 82 Wine future of DNA be worse. richard lambert Will Puglia come good? “origami.” barry smith philip ball 42 Bad job for Britain 83 DIY investment Trade unions are failing the Who shrank my pension? low-paid. david goodhart andy davis Special report: smarter cities 48 Invisible republic Endgames 61 Can technology turn a metropolis The travails of François Hollande. into a utopia? christine ockrent 84 The generalist didymus leo hollis 84 Enigmas & puzzles ian stewart 62 Equality through technology 52 The art of power 87 The Prospect List our pick of events.