Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique Final Report

Participatory Natural Hazard and

Climate Change Risk Mapping Study -

Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique

Final report

BRGM/RC-59843-FR May, 2011

Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique Final Report

BRGM/RC-59843-FR May, 2011

C. Oliveros, T. Adeline, R. Cochery, J.F. Desprats, M. Lima,A. Mazembe, E. Neves, S. Roque, C. Rosario, M. Souto, P. Stollsteiner, P. Thierry, Th. Winter, M. Yates-Michelin

Checked by: Approved by:

Name: E. FOERSTER Name: H. MODARESSI Date: 30/06/2011 Date : 01/07/2011

Signature: Signature: If the present report has not been signed in its digital form, a signed original of this document will be available at the information and documentation Unit (STI). BRGM’s quality management system is certified ISO 9001:2008 by AFAQ.

IM 003 ANG – April 05

Keywords: Natural Hazards, Climate Change, Risk Mapping, Participatory Process, Adaptation Measures, Coastal Cities, Inhambane, Maxixe, Mozambique

In bibliography, this report should be cited as follows: C. Oliveros, T. Adeline, R. Cochery, J.F. Desprats, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, E. Neves, C. Rosario, M. Souto, P. Stollsteiner, S. Roque, P. Thierry, Th. Winter, M. Yates-Michelin (2011) - Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique - Final Report, Report BRGM RC-59843-FR 164 pp.

© BRGM, 2011. No part of this document may be reproduced without the prior permission of BRGM.

Natural Hazard, Climate Change, Risk Mapping - Inhambane and Maxixe

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 13

1. Introduction ...... 27 1.1. INHAMBANE ...... 27 1.2. MAXIXE ...... 28 1.3. SELECTED PILOT STUDY SITES ...... 29

2. Multi-Hazard Profiling and Climate Change ...... 35 2.1. MULTI-HAZARD PROFILING ...... 35 2.2. CYCLONES ...... 36 2.3. EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS ...... 38 2.4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (2030, 2060, 2100) ...... 41

3. Risk Assessment ...... 45 3.1. DATA USED AND LIMITATIONS ...... 45 3.2. NATURAL HAZARDS MAPPING ...... 47 3.3. VULNERABILITY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK FACING MULTIPLE HAZARDS .. 60 3.4. RISK MAPPING ...... 62

4. Socio-Economic Analysis ...... 65

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4.1. CONTEXT OF THE TOWNS ...... 65 4.2. DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLDS ...... 65 4.3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS OF HEADS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND OTHER WORKING MEMBERS ...... 66 4.4. LAND AND HOUSING TENURE AND CHARACTERISTICS ...... 67 4.5. HOUSEHOLD MATERIAL POSSESSIONS ...... 70 4.6. MIGRATION PATTERNS ...... 70 4.7. SOCIAL NETWORKS ...... 71 4.8. ACCESS TO SOCIAL/PUBLIC SERVICES ...... 71 4.9. HOUSEHOLD PERCEPTION OF NATURAL HAZARD RISKS ...... 71 4.10. IDENTIFICATION OF RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS ...... 73 4.11. CONCLUSIONS ...... 78

5. Adaptation options ...... 79 5.1. “DRIVERS” FOR SELECTING AND RANKING ADAPTATION MEASURES ... 79 5.2. ADAPTATION MEASURES ...... 82 5.3. GLOBAL COST OF ADAPTATION MEASURES ...... 103

6. Safeguard Measures ...... 109

7. Synthesis and conclusions ...... 119

Acronyms ...... 121

Bibliography ...... 123

Illustrations

Figure 1: Inhambane Bay, the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane and main rivers and roads (© Landsat TM) ...... 15 Figure 2: Inhambane: The pilot neighbourhoods with areas with no or unfavorable drainage (closed basins) (source Geoeye panchromatic) ...... 31 Figure 3: Maxixe - The pilot neighbourhoods and the present zone of urban expansion (Extract of the topographical map 1963, 1971 (source CENACARTA, modified))...... 32 Figure 4: Maxixe north. Zoom over the area where urban expansion took place in the 2000s (source CENACARTA, 1963-71 -up- and Geoeye 2009 -down -) ...... 33 Figure 5: Occurrence of cyclones in Mozambique. Number of cyclones that affected districts of the coastal provinces of Mozambique between 1970 and 2000 (Source: INAM) ...... 38 Figure 6: Intensity Duration Frequency rainfall curves for Maputo ...... 40

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Figure 7: Extract from “Modelagem do risco de inundaçao” in Analisis das Mudanças Climaticas: INGC Alteraçoes Climaticas Relatorio, (Asante et al, 2009) ...... 42 Figure 8: MESALES erosion-hazard mapping for rainy season (focus on Maxixe)...... 48 Figure 9: Erosion modelling with STREAM for the 2008 rainy event (in tonnes for this rainy event) – the numbers refer to the designation of the different watersheds in Maxixe” ...... 49 Figure 10: Flood hazard zones for field identified outlets on the STREAM map (modelling rain from 12/27/2008 - 225 mm in 5 hours) (left) - Maxixe – (the numbers represent the different outlets) ...... 51 Figure 11: Map of “Depression filled by excessive run-off” hazards in the neighbourhoods of Liberdade 3 and Chalambe 2 (Inhambane) ...... 52 Figure 12: Map of “Depression filled by excessive run-off” hazards in the pilot neighbourhoods of Maxixe ...... 53 Figure 13: Tidal levels (water sea level - WSL) and surges characteristics in Inhambane ...... 56 Figure 14: Coastal flooding mapping – Chalambe 2 ...... 57 Figure 15: Coastal flooding mapping – Liberdade A (north) and B (south) ...... 58 Figure 16: Coastal flooding mapping – Mazambanine (Maxixe)...... 59 Figure 17: Example of coastal cliff hazard mapping in Maxixe ...... 60 Figure 18: From left to right: wooden huts and masonry house in Mazambanine (Maxixe), and concrete building in Chambone (Maxixe) ...... 61 Figure 19: Effects of flooding on streets and roads (photo INGC - 2009) ...... 62 Figure 20: Example of composite risk map for “unpaved roads” and “wood huts” ...... 64 Figure 21: Household Members with a formal job ...... 66 Figure 22: Roof characteristics ...... 68 Figure 23: Alternative water sources ...... 69 Figure 24: Types of sanitation systems ...... 69 Figure 25: Do high tides affect the Neighborhoods? ...... 72 Figure 26: Willingness to move ...... 73 Figure 27: Influence map ...... 77 Figure 28: Watersheds between Maxixe and Chicuque ...... 84 Figure 29: Simplified layout for sills within watershed 103 ...... 85 Figure 30: National road (EN1), south of Maxixe: drainage and culvert (lateral road drainage connected to double culvert) ...... 87 Figure 31: Watershed 107 – and storage basin location ...... 88 Figure 32: The unfavourable topography of Inhambane for shoreline management facing sea-level rise and coastal flooding ...... 100

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Tables

Table 1: Distribution of tropical storms and cyclones in the Mozambique Channel from 1980 to 2007 ...... 37 Table 2: Frequency values for rainfall over one day, two days and four days at the stations at Maxixe and Inhambane (1965-2008)...... 38 Table 3: Rainfall observed over 1, 2 and 4 days during maximum daily rainfall observed at the stations of Inhambane and Maxixe and assessment of the return periods...... 39 Table 4: Estimated rainfall values for a rainy event duration between 1 hour and 4 days for return periods of 10 and 100 years at Inhambane meteorological station (in mm)...... 40 Table 5: Estimated rainfall values for a rainy event duration between 1, 2 and 3 hours for different return periods for the coastal area of Inhambane province...... 41 Table 6: Surges, maximum astronomical tide levels (MAMA) and extreme levels used for Inhambane...... 55 Table 7: List of hazards and exposed-element categories considered for assessment...... 62 Table 8: Stakeholders’ participation matrix...... 77 Table 9: Hazard identification for the pilot neighbourhoods ...... 79 Table 10: Road culverts (existing or projected) ...... 86 Table 11: Structural Measures cost - MAXIXE ...... 93 Table 12: Non-Structural Measures cost – MAXIXE ...... 93 Table 13: Structural measures cost – Inhambane ...... 98 Table 14: Non-structural measures cost - Inhambane ...... 99 Table 15: Estimated costs for high priority measures for the town of Maxixe ...... 104 Table 16: Estimated costs for medium priority measures for the town of Maxixe ...... 105 Table 17: Estimated costs for low priority measures for the town of Maxixe ...... 106 Table 18: Estimated costs for high priority measures for the town of Inhambane ...... 106 Table 19: Estimated costs for medium priority measures for the town of Inhambane ...... 107 Table 20: Additional Costs ...... 108

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Appendices

Appendix 1 : Legal framework ...... 127 Appendix 2 : GIS details ...... 135 Appendix 3: Sea levels in Inhambane Bay ...... 141 Appendix 4 : Adaptation Options (Maxixe and Inhambane) ...... 145 Appendix 5 : Examples of standard solutions ...... 151 Appendix 6 : Adaptation measures in Maxixe (watersheds 103 and 105) ...... 161 Appendix 7 : Adaptation measures in Maxixe (watersheds 106 and 107) ...... 163

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

Governments are becoming more aware of the effects of climate change and natural disasters and are seeking ways in which their towns and cities can be protected against such threats. Urban planning is taking on a more environmentally conscious approach in order to mitigate these effects and government responsibility now includes assisting the affected populations in finding ways on how to increase their resilience to these environmental pressures.

The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) assists the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) of Mozambique in carrying out parts of its Disaster Management Program. As part of this assistance, it has commissioned a study to carry out Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Risk Mapping for the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane in southern Mozambique.

Several informal settlements around Maxixe and Inhambane are vulnerable to flooding and exposed to soil erosion. In addition, the coastal road of Inhambane and some of its neighbourhoods has been suffering from coastal erosion with rising sea levels. Maxixe is suffering from deep gully formation near houses and public infrastructure, including hospitals and schools.

In order to prevent further natural disasters and mitigate climate change risks, the INGC has requested the World Bank for a study of vulnerability to natural hazards, potential effects of climate change, and potential adaptation and preventive options, so that, as soon as resources become available, investment projects can be quickly prepared and implemented.

The competitive selection of the group of consulting firms responsible for carrying out the technical work was completed at the end of April 2010, with the selection of BRGM as lead firm, supported by Austral Cowi and Sogréah.

The work began on May 10, 2010, and was completed on May 2011.

Objectives

The major objective of the commissioned study was to carry out vulnerability mapping and a spatial analysis of natural hazards and climate change, and to establish the best options for participatory urban-disaster risk management in full consultation with the exposed populations.

The study was to focus on developing viable options for informal settlements in both Inhambane and Maxixe and along the coastal roads suffering from coastal erosion, taking into account the socio-economic situation of the population and environmental and land occupation norms.

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The study was also to develop a methodology that is replicable to other vulnerable urban and/or coastal areas in Mozambique.

In order to achieve the aforementioned objectives, the study was designed to include six components: 1. Mapping; 2. Natural-hazard and climate-change vulnerability mapping and identification of areas at risk; 3. Adaptation measures; 4. Participatory urban options for increasing global resilience; 5. Estimation of costs; and 6. Training and knowledge transfer.

Natural hazards in Inhambane and Maxixe

The towns of Inhambane and Maxixe are located on either side of Inhambane Bay. The two main rivers in this region are the Rio Mutamba and the Rio Inhanombe. Neither of these rivers flows through the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe (Figure 1). The Rio Mutamba has its outlet in the extreme south of this bay. Whatever the intensity of rainfall in the Rio Mutamba basin, where the highest recorded discharge is only 44 m3/s, overflow and flooding of the Rio Mutamba cannot affect the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe.

On the west side of Inhambane Bay, the Rio Inhanombe and its flooding do not affect the town of Maxixe either. The Rio Inhanombe flows northward in a gently sloping valley (floodplain), and 220-m-high hills separate this valley from Maxixe. The Rio Inhanombe flows into this bay in the District of Morrumbene, 20 km north of Maxixe.

The towns of Inhambane and Maxixe are located on either side of Inhambane Bay; the Rio Mutamba has its outlet in the extreme south of this bay. The Rio Inhanombe also flows into this bay in the District of Morrumbene, but 20 km north of Maxixe. Neither of these rivers flows through the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe (Figure 1).

Past studies (Asante et al, 2009) gave the impression, through lack of details, that the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane were affected by estuary flooding and that consequently the flood risks in these towns were of the same type as those affecting other coastal towns located on river estuaries, or in the interior of the province of Inhambane, such as the flooding from the Rio Save around Nova-Mambone, Jofane and Machacame in Govuro district in January 2008. In some reports on the areas potentially affected by river flooding, confusion arose from the fact that Inhambane was considered as a province, a district or a town, and Maxixe, as a district or a town.

Inhambane and Maxixe are not threatened by river flooding hazard.

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Figure 1: Inhambane Bay, the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane and main rivers and roads (© Landsat TM)

The present study concludes that flooding in the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe results primarily from the lack of a sewer system and uncontrolled urban development, leading to increased run-off. Below are some factors that contribute to urban flooding: 1. Severe run-off over slopes (diffuse flow or concentrated streams) occurs when rainfall intensity and precipitation height are significant;

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2. The northern coastal road from Maxixe to Chicuque is affected by deep gullying due to run-off that puts the road and its surrounding areas (Chicuque Hospital) at risk; 3. Diffuse run-off and sheet erosion occur over slopes covered by informal settlements, as the soil around houses and informal tracks is generally bare; 4. Numerous unpaved urban streets, mainly in the most recently urbanized areas (not "informal" settlements), act as ephemeral collectors of water flowing during hard rainfall events (for example in December 2008), and are frequently damaged (rill erosion, small gullies). Upslope, diffuse run-off within the informal settlements flows down onto these unpaved roads. And even higher upslope, natural vegetation or crops do not reduce the natural run-off that flows through the informal settlement areas; 5. During strong rainfall, the run-off invades the main road (EN1) at the bottom, creating disturbances, and then flows uncontrollably across the formal or informal settlements situated between EN1 and the sea.

The observed effects of the extreme event of December 2008 are characteristic of uncontrolled urban growth and the lack of a storm-sewer system for urban run-off drainage. The high erodibility of soils then leads to creating extreme situations of rills and gully development.

There is no supporting evidence that the disasters affecting Maxixe and Inhambane are primarily related to climate change, as it is currently difficult to distinguish between the many anthropogenic factors and climate trends. However, we did conclude that the observed damages occurred as a result of un-checked run-off over urban areas (informally settled or not) for an extreme rainfall event (more than 500 mm in 3 days).

In both towns, the topography (natural or Man-made) is the factor that guides and concentrates surface-water flow, and that prevents or allows submersion by the sea.

Risk assessment

Risk assessment required setting up a database built into a GIS, based on maps and data available in Maxixe and Inhambane municipalities, but also on a general map at national scale, satellite data, and, of course, field-observation data. The following models and methodologies were used in the study:

Soil-erosion hazard, observed mainly in the town of Maxixe, was modelled using the MESALES expert regional Model. The STREAM model was used in a second step for modelling run-off and erosion at catchment scale. The modelling results clearly showed a strong link between town infrastructure and concentrated erosion (major damage to highly erodible streets because of their sandy composition).

Flooding hazard required a study of historical rainfall events. This allowed focusing our model on the 100-year return period event of December 27th, 2008. Several outlets recognized in the field were analysed after mapping their catchment area. The modelled volumes correspond quite accurately to works carried out by Maxixe

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Municipality. This modelling has led to assessment of the flooding hazard related to: thalwegs, streets and depressions.

A digital elevation model (DEM) was used in Maxixe for extracting the flooding-potential areas of the town, which were also mapped in the field. The analysis was carried out for the main neighbourhood of the town, where damage from 2008 still remained.

Coastal-flooding hazard was assessed by comparing altimetric data (from our DEM) with extreme sea levels for the selected return periods. Three types of zone were defined with respect to different water heights and considering 10- and 100-year return periods.

Coastal-cliff-erosion hazard concerns two parts of the bay (cliff height up to 15 m). Landslides and gullies may occur depending on the slope (evaluated from the DEM). A very high hazard is affected to the main slope, and a high hazard to both downstream and upstream strips.

Potential elements at risk were classified by their vulnerability, according to the various hazards previously assessed. Five classes were set up, including two types of streets and roads and three types of constructions.

For each hazard, risk mapping then was carried out by combining the assessed hazard level with the vulnerability indices of the different types of exposed elements. The resulting risk matrices are hazard-specific. Synthetic composite-risk maps were also created for presenting the maximum risk level that a type of element at risk can be faced with.

Socio-economic analysis

Both a quantitative survey, including a questionnaire, and a qualitative survey were carried out for the socio-economic analysis. This resulted in a good knowledge of household characteristics (demography, socio-economic status, possessions), housing characteristics (which then led to the vulnerability analysis), and other important details for assessing the potential resistance to adaptation options. This information includes the individual relation to social and public services and networks, to mobility (through migration patterns), and to natural hazards.

In order to involve the different stakeholders, the socio-economic assessment was accompanied by the identification and classification of stakeholders by influence, importance and interest in risk management. The stakeholders were identified at central, provincial and local levels.

The results from this socio-economic study were also fed into the proposal for structural and non-structural adaptation measures, as interviewees were requested to describe the way in which their neighbourhoods were vulnerable to natural hazards; how they coped and adapted to these vulnerabilities; and what could be done to reduce their vulnerability and increase their resilience to natural hazards.

The main risks perceived by the studied communities of both Inhambane and Maxixe, as found by the socio-economic survey and focus-group discussions, mostly concur

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with the physical findings mentioned above. These risks are flooding by intense rain or coastal flooding (referred to as ‘high tides’ in survey).

Based on the socio-economic survey and stakeholder analysis, it was concluded that most perceive the INGC and the municipal governments as the institutions responsible for providing relief to the neighbourhoods in the event of a natural hazard, as are the cases of flooding caused by intense rain or coastal flooding. In addition, the Municipal Government is perceived as responsible for resolving the urban planning deficiencies in each of the neighbourhoods, due to the fact that some of the vulnerabilities identified are due to a lack of urban planning. Aside from these two stakeholders, others were identified that could be involved in relief actions. Some of these stakeholders are local leaders, the media, and State representatives; these, however, have not yet gained credibility as effective relief help.

Adaptation options

Technical adaptation options are presented for each risk. These options can require acting on the causes (in order to reduce the expected hazard level), or on the elements at risk (to reduce risk exposure). Target sectors were identified, which can be upstream or downstream; they also depend on the main zones at risk (slopes, thalwegs, roads, urban zones, etc.). Costs and stakeholders involved in such adaptation measures were also highlighted. Environmental and social impacts were assessed so that only fully sustainable measures were proposed.

In the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane, risk-mitigation measures were defined for the main causes of natural disasters, which are related to flooding either due to intense rainfall or as a result of coastal flooding by seawater. The adaptation options considered in this study aim at: (i) reducing the negative effects of floods on the affected population and assets using different actions that include the participation of the target groups; and (ii) preventing floods by taking physical measures.

The dominant hazards in the study zone are: 9 In Maxixe the dominant natural hazard is associated with storm-water run-off, slope erosion, and small areas that are affected by coastal flooding; 9 In Inhambane the dominant hazard is associated with coastal flooding, erosion of the shoreline (cliffs) and those parts of town without storm-water drainage.

The effects caused by the absence of storm-water drainage are direct flooding of houses and roads, as well as the erosion and degradation of roads and gullies.

No significant coastal flooding events were discovered in the bibliography or during site visits. However, analysis of the shoreline and the elevation of the surrounding natural area show that the town of Inhambane is exposed to flooding by extreme sea-water levels with a 100-year return period.

The consequences of the natural hazards indicated above are concentrated in residential areas, with an emphasis on informal settlements and roads. They also cause erosion of and damage to soil, and its re-sedimentation in unsuitable areas.

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The strategic infilling of storm-water depressions and the construction of coastal defence structures do not seem suitable options, due to the fact that (a) low-lying coastal areas are also exposed to coastal flooding, and (b) coastal-protection structures are particularly expensive and should be justified by the protection of areas of strategic assets, in the absence of any other alternative development.

Main Adaptation Options for Maxixe:

Runoff management is an essential point for reducing flooding and erosion risks. The measures proposed for run-off management in Maxixe should be part of a comprehensive plan for storm-water drainage of the town. The main structural adaptation options proposed for Maxixe are as follows:

• Maxixe Structural Measure 1 (MSM1) – High priority: Reduce erosion along slopes and gullies: This measure proposes the construction of sills, using gabions or stone walls, at the bottom of the thalwegs and maintaining thalwegs.

• Maxixe Structural Measure 2 (MSM2) – High priority: Drainage and crossings for roads: This proposed measure involves building lateral road drainage and large culverts along roads susceptible to inundation.

• Maxixe Structural Measure 3 (MSM3) - Medium Priority: Set up a storage basin upstream from the “zona da expansão”: This measure includes setting up a drainage system along the channels, by introducing dykes and basins for re- establishing the natural flow of rainwater, and, wherever necessary, strengthen it with gutters or enlarged pipes for allowing a better discharge of water upstream

• Maxixe Structural Measure 5 (MSM5) – Medium Priority: Develop local water collection and reservoir systems: This measure proposed constructing water- collection systems and water reservoirs that could have a decantation basin for rainwater at the entrance of the reservoir or well.

• Maxixe Structural Measure 6 (MSM6) - Medium Priority: Building ducts to the sea: In urban areas or areas to be urbanized along the coast, the flow of rainwater has to be channelled through piped systems and could include the construction of ducts to the sea.

• Maxixe Structural Measure 7 (MSM7) - Medium Priority: Protection against coastal flooding: This measure consists of constructing conventional rubble- mound breakwaters. However, a change in land use is highly recommended by (i) allowing the land to return to its natural state; and, (ii) constructing non- residential or non-permanent infrastructures.

The adaptation options proposed for the Maxixe watersheds are described in more detail in Chapter 5.2.1.1.

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Main Adaptation Options for Inhambane:

Inhambane is not affected by any significant watershed generating a potential hazard related to run-off. The natural hazard is related to basins in which rain accumulates and to coastal flooding. The main hazards affecting Inhambane are the accumulation of rainwater in Liberdade 3 and marine invasion in Chalambe 2. The proposed adaptation measures aimed at reducing the impact of these hazards in the short- and medium terms are as follows:

• Inhambane/Liberdade 3 Structural Measure 1 (ISM1) – High Priority: Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depressions: This solution proposes (i) restoring the flow from Liberdade 3 to the sea by reconnecting the depressions by gravity (pipes); (ii) establishment of a pump that would allow for the evacuation of the surplus water and the corresponding discharge downstream; (iii) construction ditches or buried pipelines; and, (iv) constructing embankments.

• Inhambane/Liberdade 3 Structural Measure 2 (ISM2) – Medium Priority: Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depression: This measure proposes (i) changing land use into open green space of non-vulnerable facilities; (ii) filling in the existing depressions with land to a level above sea level (2.6m); and, (iii) land below sea level (2.6m) should not have any infrastructure.

• Inhambane/Chalambe 2 Structural Measure 3 (ISM3) – Medium Priority: Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depressions: To reduce the flood risk in these zones, this measure proposes the construction of embankments, digging ditches along the existing roads and street networks, and building a drainage system.

• Inhambane/Chalambe 2 Structural Measure 4 (ISM4) – Medium Priority: Ensure drainage in low-lying zones along the coast: This measure recommends a change in land use by (i) allowing the land to return to its natural state; and, (ii) constructing non-residential or non-permanent infrastructures.

The adaptation options proposed for Inhambane are described in more detail in Chapter 5.2.2.1.

Non-Structural measures for Inhambane and Maxixe:

The non-structural measures proposed for both Inhambane and Maxixe aim at reducing the vulnerability of the populations in the affected neighbourhoods to natural hazards through a three pronged approach.

This approach entails: 1. Instituting early-warning systems to make communities aware of impending hazards;

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2. Providing the Municipal Councils and relevant Provincial and City Directorates with training to enable them to revise the urban structure and urbanization plans and to enable them to produce Detailed Urban Plans; and 3. Creating Community Awareness Committees and Disaster Preparedness Groups.

Thus, the combination of structural and non-structural adaptation measures should reduce the vulnerability of populations in the affected neighbourhoods, increase their global resilience and provide them with the tools for preventing and mitigating natural hazards.

Proposed Implementation Arrangements for Adaptation Measures:

The specific responsibilities of each stakeholder are presented below and the general mitigation measures refer to both towns. Eventually, they will be reflected not only in the neighbourhoods targeted in this study, but also in residential units with similar problems located in Inhambane and Maxixe. The summarized responsibilities of each are presented below

Municipality: 9 The Municipality should assume a primordial role in Land Use Planning Management (managing the occupation of urban land). Such control could be done with the participation of inhabitants of the exposed areas themselves. 9 The Municipality should be in charge of revising the Urban Structure Plans and Urbanization Plans, and of creating Detailed Urban Plans. 9 The Municipality should train community leaders in urban best-practices and in participative dissemination mechanisms for Community Awareness Committees.

INGC: 9 INGC should be responsible for creating an early-warning system for natural disasters. 9 INGC should also be involved in training local leaders in the formulation and management of community Disaster Preparedness Groups, which would include:

Local Leaders, such as neighbourhood Secretaries, Heads of Quarters and ten Heads of family: Their role during the period prior to and during the occurrence of events is essential, particularly for guiding the first responses to natural disasters. Such coordination should aim at: 9 Leading and reproducing the community-awareness committees and disaster preparedness groups.

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State representatives 9 They should be responsible for coordinating actions to mitigate the impact of natural disasters, with the INGC providing methodological and logistical guidance.

Community members should: 9 Be empowered to fully and actively participate in the planning, design and implementation of the adaptation measures. 9 Actively consult and participate in the proposed selection and detailed design of the adaptation option affecting their community. 9 Participate in community awareness committees related to the dissemination and implementation of urban-planning best-practices; 9 Participate in disaster preparedness groups by assisting in the prevention and reduction of impacts of natural disasters;

Media representatives should: 9 Cooperate with Municipality, State and Local Representatives to disseminate messages on natural-disaster prevention measures; 9 Release early-warning messages on natural disasters; 9 Participate in the production and dissemination of best-practice messages regarding urban settlement and natural disaster prevention.

Further Studies to be conducted

The listing of adaptation measures presented above for structural and non- structural interventions was developed by the various stakeholders in close consultation with the study team. It represents an initial stage of defining interventions required for building resilience to natural hazards. To get to the final stage and subsequent implementation, several refinement actions are required. These include, but are not limited to: ƒ Additional consultation with relevant stakeholders, mainly community members and their representatives and determination of their roles and responsibilities including levels of involvement in different aspects of the process (e.g. planning, labour, funding, in-kind contributions, etc.). ƒ Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies including environmental and socio- economic assessments (see Safeguard Measures, below) and formulation of final design and detailed costing, as well as final determination of sources of funding required for materializing the development work. ƒ Study to determine the groundwater level and the location of flood basins, if they exist, in the studied neighborhoods, as a precursor to formulation of the Detailed Urban Plan. ƒ Mobilization and implementation of the adaptation measures. ƒ Monitoring, and evaluation and introduction of corrective measures where required, including the development of “lessons learned” and re-planning.

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Safeguard Measures

Both Mozambican and World Bank legislation and regulations require that safeguard assessments and feasibility studies be conducted prior to the implementation of physical interventions. This would apply to the series of solutions and adaptations measures considered suitable and proposed in this study, in particular, environmental assessments (EA) in order to provide environmental license to the interventions. The EA process is discussed as a way of providing general indications of the issues and modus operandi that would need to be considered in the environmental licensing of the interventions likely to be selected.

Mozambique has developed comprehensive regulations to cover the EA process, which are included in the Regulation of the Process of Environmental Impact Assessment1. The regulations are in line with the world’s environmental and social management best-practices, including World Bank recommendations and procedures. They would take precedence for interventions to be adopted as part of this study.

There are three main specific objectives of any EA exercise: ƒ Scoping of the proposed developments in terms of their potential impact on the natural and social receiving environment, indicating both its beneficial outcomes and adverse effects. This initial screening is needed to determine the scope of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) required prior to approval of the interventions. If the investment is likely to have significant adverse environmental impacts that are sensitive, diverse, or unprecedented (a Category A), the EIA will be more stringent than if the investment has impacts which are less adverse, site-specific, mostly reversible and where adequate mitigation measures can be designed (Category B). For investments with multiple sub-projects, this screening is often done in the form of a checklist of potential impacts included in standard Environmental and Social Management Frameworks (ESMFs). ƒ The actual Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which assesses the potential impacts of the investment in detail and evaluates alternatives. ƒ Proposal of measures to be taken in order to avoid, mitigate and/or eliminate adverse effects both at the planning, design and installation stages, and during operation and eventual decommissioning of the project. This is generally done in the form of an Environmental Management Plan (EMP), which is a normally an intrinsic part of the EIA.

The Scoping Exercise, EIA and the Environmental Management Plan (EMP) are components of particular importance in any EA process. Scoping primarily explores fundamental issues and identifies any potentially significant positive and negative environmental (and often social) impacts associated with the proposed development, helping to determine the scope of the Environmental Impact Assessment. In an EMP,

1 Decree 45/2004 of September 29, 2004 and Decree 42/2008 of November 04, 2008.

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various mitigation measures are organized into a well-formulated plan, which serves as a guide for the construction and operational phases of a development.

Certain interventions might require people to be resettled, such as if the proposed structural measures are located where households are currently located. The Regulation of the Environmental Impact Assessment Process, which governs the EIA process in Mozambique, says very little about resettlement, except in its Annex I, point 1. Infrastructures, line a), where it states that “under environmental licensing, all interventions requiring people to be resettled will be considered as Category A Activities”.

Mozambique legislation guiding involuntary resettlement is spread over a series of legal documents dealing with land, general rights, compensation, etc. To counteract potential inconsistencies derived from using laws and regulations that are not always easy to harmonize, most of the resettlement procedures undertaken to date by development initiatives in Mozambique have basically followed the OP 4.30 /OP 4.12 of the World Bank on Involuntary Resettlement, which is endorsed by the Government. The Policy covers the involuntary taking of land, as well as restriction of access to means of livelihood. This would be valid to the proposed adaptation options to be considered as part of this study.

Whenever an investment is likely to result in involuntary resettlement, a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) should be prepared, defining the principles, organizational arrangements, criteria for eligibility and compensation, and grievances and monitoring processes to be adopted. Once it is determined with certainty that resettlement will be needed, a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) is further prepared and approved prior to the implementation of the activities.

Based on the adaptation options that have been proposed so far, the safeguard policies that we see as being immediately triggered are presented in the table below:

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Safeguard Policies Triggered Inhambane Maxixe None Environmental Assessment2 (OP/BP 4.01) X X Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) X Forests (OP/BP 4.36) X Pest Management (OP/BP 4.09) X Physical and Cultural Resources (OP/BP4.11) X X Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) X Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) X X Safety of Dams (OP/BP4.37) X Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) X Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60) X

Estimated Costs The objective of this task was to produce a proposal with cost components that are as detailed as possible and which will allow the INGC to secure the funds for investing in the Adaptation Options. The options were denoted as low, medium or high priorities. The high priority measures are those that are indispensable to reducing the vulnerability of the communities to natural hazards. The medium priority measures are not as urgent, but should still be implemented. Finally, the low priority actions should be considered only if the high and medium priority actions have been implemented. The estimation of costs includes six categories:

The estimation of costs includes five categories:

1. Special infrastructures component, 2. Safeguards planning and implementation, 3. Monitoring and evaluation, 4. Contingency, 5. Implementation management costs, and 6. Possible additional studies.

The estimated costs for implementing the proposed structural measures in Maxixe are approximately US$3.3 million, whereas in Inhambane the estimated costs are US$2.9 million. Furthermore, the estimated costs for implementing the non-structural measures

2 There is existing Mozambican legislation that applies to most of the proposed adaptation options. However, the World Bank safeguard policies can be used to fill the gaps where Mozambican legislation falls short.

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in each of the cities are US$52,000. The estimated costs for possible additional studies is US$450,000. Recognizing the weak financial situation of the various institutions involved in the mitigation of natural disasters in the two municipalities studied, in particular with regard to financial resources allocated to the component of natural-disaster management, further efforts should be undertaken with the aim of raising funds.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The present study would not have been possible without the help and cooperation of the Government and institutions in Mozambique. In particular, we would like to thank:

• INGC Maputo,

• Provincial Delegation of INGC Inhambane,

• ARA-SUL Maxixe,

• INAM Inhambane,

• CENACARTA Maputo and

• INAHINA Maputo

We also wish to thank the municipalities of Inhambane and Maxixe for their welcome and the support provided during visits and surveys carried out on the ground by the teams from BRGM and Austral Cowi.

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1. Introduction

The towns of Inhambane and Maxixe are located about 460 km north of Maputo, 260 km north of Xai-Xai and 740 km south of Beira. Inhambane was originally settled by Swahili traders and quickly became a commercial hub for nautical trade. In the 14th Century, Vasco da Gama arrived and created a Portuguese Colony. After independence in 1975, Inhambane became a sleepy tourist town, but also the home of the Provincial Government offices. Maxixe, however, began to expand exponentially with the establishment of National Road #1 that runs through the town. In addition, due to its location it became a commercial trading hub.

1.1. INHAMBANE

The Municipio of Inhambane, capital of the province of the same name, is located in the southeast of Inhambane Province. It is a coastal town, 14 km long and 8 km wide, bordering the district of Jangamo to the south. It includes urban, semi-urban and rural areas, distributed over 24 neighbourhoods. Total town population is estimated to be 53,900 inhabitants. Most of the population belongs to the Bitonga Group, although there are also people from Chope Puro.

Climate is tropical humid and temperature averages 24°C. The town is surrounded by the sea and many sectors are low wet zones (west and north-east sides), relics of the past, in the process of natural filling. The town’s altitude is below 20 m above sea level.

The historical development of the town (current urban centre built before the 1960s) was accompanied by the construction of overland access routes, the main ones being the north and west coastal roads and the railway. These were constructed by a succession of embankments and cuttings, blocking the natural drainage of the land (Figure 2). In the very heart of town, the Balane 1 and Chalambe 1 districts are also located on unfavourable topography (closed basins).

In 1997, the production of a Structure Plan3 for the City of Inhambane began but was never completed, having been interrupted at the appraisal stage on the grounds of the lack of financial resources. This Structure Plan focused on the reorganization of the Bairros that were spontaneously occupied, strengthening services and infrastructures deemed weak. The Structure Plan was intended to provide vitality to these Bairros by increasing inter and intra mobility in the Bairros, as well as in the opening of spaces for the development of social equipment.

3 In article 10 from the Spatial Planning Law, the Structure Plan is defined as the instrument that establishes the spatial organization of municipal or settlement unit, the parameters and norms for its utilization, keeping in mind the actual occupation, the existent and future infrastructure and social equipment and its integration in the spatial structure of the region.

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Needless to say the city of Inhambane does not have an urbanization plan but it does have a Strategic Plan for 2009-20194. The plan consists of strategies that aim to improve the living conditions of its citizens through the provision of basic services and by attracting investments in tourism and commerce and industry. Furthemore, these strategies would prioritize the use of local resources and created conditions for socioo- economic development that is both participative and transparent.

1.2. MAXIXE

The Municipio of Maxixe, capital of the district of Maxixe, is the second town in Inhambane province. The town is organized in 13 neighbourhoods. The population is estimated at 88,500 inhabitants, distributed over 282 km2. The population is primarily Bitonga and Chope.

Maxixe is situated below hills whose summits culminate at 220 m (Figure 3). The historic town centre is located in a gently sloping area that advances towards the sea, ending in a cliff carved from soft sandy ground, possible remains of old dunes.

Nowadays, the entire slope, from the coast to the summits, is marked in various ways by human activity: a structured urban centre at the bottom, less ordered urbanization as we move up the slopes (conventional or informal buildings), and then mostly agricultural land and small hamlets beyond an altitude of 100 m. Numerous roads intersect the slopes of the watersheds or run along the sea (in the north the road to Chicuque) at the edge of a landscape bordered by cliffs.

Above the urban centre of Maxixe there is no system for managing rainwater. During intense rainfall, run-off flows down the slopes, channelling into paths and unpaved roads and entering the network of roads and avenues in the town centre.

In 2008, a Structure Plan was produced for the City of Maxixe. After the production of the Plan, a partial urbanization plan was implemented in the Bairros of Rumbana and Chambone with the objective of reorganizing the Bairros. Ultimately, this exercise did not actually incorporate Bairro Rumbana as it was considered an unsuitable for the development of human settlements and was eventually classified as a protected area due to the coastline of the Bay of Inhambane. In 2010, a new area of expansion surged in Mangabala, in the outskirts of Maxixe. Needless to say though that there is no official urbanization plan or mastern plan for the City of Maxixe.

The process of urbanization in the Town of Maxixe was influenced by a large influx of people that used to inhabit the surrounding rural areas and were fleeing the civil war. This movement resulted in the occupation of nearly all of the open area in the perimeter of the town. However, some pockets of marginal urban areas remained unoccupied due to their vulnerability to floods and on slopes. Some development work, including the opening of access ways in urban expansion areas, negatively affected the

4 Came into fruition on the 15th of May, 2009

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downstream neighbourhoods. The new access ways thus became true water corridors, especially as they did not have the necessary drainage systems.

Planned urbanization has moved over the last ten years towards the slope located north of the E.N.1 main road (Figure 3), where an urban zone known locally as “zona de expansão” (zone of urban expansion) has been developed. This zone currently represents an area of nearly 250 ha and is developing between the altitudes of 60 and 110 m, over a length of 2 km along the slope. This zone of urban expansion does not have a drainage network for managing run-off water, and the construction of wide streets (12 m) in the slope direction means that run-off pours down these roads. The road that leads to the hospital at Chicuque intersects the entire slope and concentrates the run-off water in the direction of Chicuque.

Below this zone of urban expansion (Figure 4), the area is characterized by dense and dispersed housing of mixed buildings (conventional or informal). There is no system for collecting run-off water in this zone either. During heavy rain, the water runs down the slope through the inhabited zones and the dirt roads before reaching the coastal road that leads to Chicuque. Informal settlements located downhill are directly affected by rain run-off water flowing from the "zone of urban expansion ".

1.3. SELECTED PILOT STUDY SITES

Both towns suffer from heavy rainfall and flooding almost every year. According to the INGC in Inhambane, there has been flooding in both towns in 2000, 2003, 2008 and 2009. These rains affected most of the bairros (“neighbourhoods”) due to the lack of drainage systems, access roads and conventional housing.

In 2003 and 2006 there were large waves that entered the bay from the Indian Ocean and invaded the town of Inhambane, but not Maxixe. In 2007, cyclone Fávio passed through Inhambane and Maxixe and affected many neighbourhoods in both towns and the rest of Inhambane province (Vilankulos town). In addition to the natural events mentioned above, hazards in the two towns also include erosion and strong winds.

The pilot sites that are the subject of this study include the neighbourhoods of Chalambe 2 and Liberdade 3 in Inhambane (Figure 2) and Mazambanine and Chambone 1, 5, and 6 in Maxixe (Figure 3). The coastal road from Mazambanine to Chicuque (north of Maxixe) is also included in this study.

These sites were selected by INGC due to the frequency of flooding, soil erosion and the extreme development of gullies.

Run-off and soil erosion − Erosion is both diffuse and along rills. Erosion is moderate or low with agricultural land on slopes, even those with a gradient of a few percent; − Inhabited zones (roofs made of woven palm and straw constitute waterproof surfaces) even on low-gradient slopes made up of plots (open or permeable) do not retain run-off;

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− Dirt roads, streets (paved or unpaved), alleys and paths amplify run-off concentration or diversion; − Concentrated erosion is observed at the base of slopes and the run-off becomes concentrated (typical example: the coastal road leading from the zone of urban expansion to the hospital at Chicuque in Maxixe); − Erosion becomes extreme and quickly creates large gullies in areas where there is an extreme concentration of run-off. The ground is vertically carved out of several metres of coastal soft cliff and prone to regressive erosion that threaten the coastal road from Maxixe to Chicuque and housings.

Flooding caused by lack of run-off evacuation and coastal submersion − The network of roads, streets, alleys and paths concentrates and directs run-off; − This phenomenon is present in the natural basins with no natural evacuation, which are found both inland and in low-lying coastal areas; − It can be seen in artificial basins resulting from, often old, topographical changes, such as road and railway embankments with non-existent or inadequate drains (defective when needed, lack of maintenance, cleaning, etc.); − Flooding in low-lying coastal areas is often aggravated by human construction. Artificial levees (mixtures of miscellaneous waste and sand) are constructed at the top of the beach or at the boundaries of coastal wetlands. These levees prevent local rainwater and run-off from upstream evacuating towards the sea.

Torrential flows and flooding − These occur at the outlets of large drains (natural or otherwise), but they may also be caused by the concentration of run-off on relatively high-gradient slopes or on low-friction surfaces (asphalt, concrete, etc.); − These phenomena may cause erosion and the destruction of informal housing located in their paths.

The location of the two neighbourhoods in Inhambane (Chalambe 2 and Liberdade 3) makes them particularly vulnerable to the natural disasters that have occurred in the past, because they lie along the coast. More specifically, Liberdade 3 is located on the bay and Chalambe 2 lies along the mangrove swamp. In addition, both neighbour- hoods have very few paved roads, no drainage systems and lack urban planning.

In Maxixe, the same characteristics occur in Mazambanine. However, in Chambone, only Chambone 6 shows the vulnerabilities mentioned above. Chambone 1 and 5 suffer more from run-off water and lack of drainage systems, but not necessarily from a lack of urban planning or coastal-hazard mitigation measures.

Many neighbourhoods of Inhambane were created due to the influx of people that were fleeing the violent areas during the civil war. They settled where there was space, thus explaining the lack of urban planning. In Maxixe, Chambone 6 and Mazambanine were settled by poorer people that required a certain proximity to public services and employment. This group also includes fishermen that need to be close to water for

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maintaining their livelihood. Chambone 1 and 5 are neighbourhoods planned by the Municipality, and do not have the same history as the others. The neighbourhoods Liberdade 3, Chalambe 2, Mazambanine and Chambone 6 hold much of the common vulnerabilities found in Third World shanty towns.

Figure 2: Inhambane: The pilot neighbourhoods with areas with no or unfavorable drainage (closed basins) (source Geoeye panchromatic)

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Figure 3: Maxixe - The pilot neighbourhoods and the present zone of urban expansion (Extract of the topographical map 1963, 1971 (source CENACARTA, modified)).

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Figure 4: Maxixe north. Zoom over the area where urban expansion took place in the 2000s (source CENACARTA, 1963-71 -up- and Geoeye 2009 -down -)

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2. Multi-Hazard Profiling and Climate Change

2.1. MULTI-HAZARD PROFILING

2.1.1. Soil erosion hazard

Erosion on the coastal catchments is linked to run-off along tracks and roads. Gullies and deposits appear where natural slopes are significant, but disappear upward where slopes are gentle and on flat parts (flow regime changes from diffuse to concentrated). Upward erosion is observed from the bottom of gullies up to the gently sloping hills. Continental erosion was especially observed in Maxixe, probably because of the existence of significant slopes and length of slopes compared to Inhambane.

During heavy rain events or storms coastal cliffs located along the coastal road Maxixe- Chicuque Hospital may be subject to a strong erosion by running water which leads to the formation of gullies. It must be emphasized that these gullies may extend extremely quickly considering the very weak characteristics of the sandy soils. These phenomena are not observed in the neighbourhoods of Inhambane.

The origin of erosion features such as gullies does not appear to be linked to farming because of low to medium catchment slopes, a quite dense protection by coconut trees, and very high soil permeability.

2.1.2. Flooding hazards

The towns of Inhambane and Maxixe are not threatened by river flooding hazard. The two main rivers in this region are the Rio Mutamba and the Rio Inhanombe. Neither of these rivers flows through the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe. The Rio Mutamba has its outlet in the extreme south of this bay. On the west side of Inhambane Bay, the Rio Inhanombe flows northward in a gently sloping valley (floodplain), and 220-m-high hills separate this valley from Maxixe.

The pilot areas of the town of Maxixe (neighbourhoods Chambone 1, 5, 6 and Mazambanine) can be split into: (i) An urban area where roads are paved and very wide, and the habitat is ordered; and (ii) peri-urban areas with scattered settlements including unpaved access roads and tracks.

Flows occur in a diffused mode and, as they go down hills, follow preferential pathways such as tracks and roads. Flooding occurs on streets and roads when slopes become low or when the local topography is characterized by depressions. Once concentrated by roads, these flows create upward erosion that will gradually endanger the coastal road. The water depth of run-off appears to be relatively low. Given the width of lanes and the reduced slopes, flow velocity is limited and associated hazards are of limited intensity, but highly variable depending on the site.

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Flooding hazards in the town of Inhambane are limited to the accumulation of water in the bottom areas of neighbourhoods (depressions) and are due to the combined effects of rainfall (run-off) and poor drainage down to the sea for low-lying urban areas (phenomenon increased by high tidal-water levels). Near the shoreline, seawater invasion is also responsible for coastal flooding during storm events with seawater surges and high tides.

There has been flooding in both towns in 2000, 2003, 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of heavy rain that affected most neighbourhoods mainly due to the lack of drainage systems. It is not possible to provide information on the periodicity of such events. The rainy events of 2000 and 2008 were extreme in terms of return period, larger than one hundred years (see Table 3, § 2.3)

2.1.3. Coastal-erosion hazards

The towns of Inhambane and Maxixe are located on both sides of Inhambane Bay, which is closed to the north by the Ponta de Linga-Linga and the sandy arm of La Barra. This elongated bay is subject to tidal cycles. The only river outlet is that of the Inhanombe, which discharges to the north behind the Ponta de Linga-Linga. The coastal areas of Inhambane and Maxixe towns are naturally protected against ocean waves, which are further attenuated by the presence of sandbanks.

Little evidence of coastal erosion was obtained from the extensive field survey along the coastlines of Maxixe and Inhambane. In some places (southern coastline of Maxixe), new buildings (regular hard constructions) are being constructed very close to the sea. The shorelines of both Maxixe and Inhambane are not directly exposed to ocean waves, due to the shelter offered by the bay. Wave action is weaker in the inner bay of Inhambane and sea water does not reach the foot of the coastal cliffs except perhaps on very rare occasions. Sand beaches are nourished with sediment brought by soil erosion from the hills. The increase of soil erosion, due to an increase and concentration of run-off, seems to develop beaches in the areas of Maxixe and Inhambane. And, as waves are moderate within the bay, the amount of sediment arriving from the watershed is only partially removed by the sea.

2.2. CYCLONES

Recently, the province of Inhambane was devastated by cyclones Favio (February 2007) and Jokwe (March 4th-15th, 2008). Near Inhambane, the open coast was very affected by cyclonic waves and the shoreline and dunes were prone to important retreat.

From testimonies by both officials and citizens, and from our consulting of different records, it appears that the province of Inhambane has been affected by 5 to 7 cyclones over the past 40 years. This represents a periodicity of about one in five or eight years. However, the area of the Inhambane Bay has so far been spared from the calamities caused by cyclones.

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The coastal areas of Mozambique are regularly affected by tropical storms and cyclones. Between 1980 and 2007, 56 tropical storms and hurricanes have affected the area of the Mozambique Channel (Table 1). Of these 56 cyclones and tropical storms, only 15 (25%) reached the mainland of Mozambique. Four reached the Northern provinces, eight reached the Central provinces, and three the Southern provinces. More worrying has been the increase in the frequency of these storms: four occurred between 1980 and 1993, while the other eleven were in the later fourteen-year period from 1994 to 2007. The intensity of cyclones that hit the coastal regions of Mozambique and occurred during the second period, also increased.

Table 1: Distribution of tropical storms and cyclones in the Mozambique Channel from 1980 to 2007

(source: INGC Alterações Climáticas Relatório, 2009 - Ciclones e da Subida do Nível Médio das Águas do Mar) Another illustration of the frequency of cyclones affecting mainly the districts of the coastal provinces of Mozambique is given below (Figure 5). This figure shows the number of cyclones that have hit each district between 1970 and 2000, knowing that each may have affected several districts. The districts of our study area have been hit 4 or 5 times between 1970 and 2000. However, when it is said that a cyclone affected a district, there is no information about what was the main involved phenomenon (wind, waves, surges, rain, flooding) and if it was strong or moderate.

The study by INGC nevertheless indicates that the number of cyclones is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about trends. The record must be long enough to remove the average variability, so that the trends induced by climate change can be revealed.

Without being located in a high-risk zone (as opposed to the centre of Mozambique), the study area remains prone to cyclonic risk, although no cyclone has been reported as having caused significant damages in the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane.

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Figure 5: Occurrence of cyclones in Mozambique. Number of cyclones that affected districts of the coastal provinces of Mozambique between 1970 and 2000 (Source: INAM)

2.3. EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS

Daily rainfall data obtained for the 1963-2010 period indicates two events with more than 200 mm rainfall in 24 h (return period of 10 years) and six events between 150 mm and 200 mm (return period of 5 years), with no significant difference between Inhambane and Maxixe (Table 2) .

Inhambane Maxixe

Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Return 1 day 2 days 4 days 1 day 2 days 4 days period Value 161 236 300 167 222 274 10 C.I 80% 148-179 215-265 272-339 153-187 202-252 248-313 Value 185 274 351 189 255 317 20 C.I 80% 169-207 248-310 317-400 172-214 230-292 284-366 Value 215 323 418 217 297 372 50 C.I 80% 195-244 290-370 374-481 196-250 265-345 330-435 Value 238 360 468 239 329 414 100 C.I 80% 214-272 322-415 416-541 214-277 291-384 365-487

Table 2: Frequency values for rainfall over one day, two days and four days at the stations at Maxixe and Inhambane (1965-2008).

Although the average annual rainfall is very similar in both towns, we note some significant differences (e.g., hydrological year 1999: 2276 mm at Maxixe and only 1562 mm at Inhambane). Rainy days ranged between 17 and 93 per year, with a mean

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value of 51 per year, which is relatively low. Annual and monthly distribution is uneven. The rainy season is from December to March, with maximum rainfall in December.

The flooding of March 17th, 2000, is still very present in the memories of inhabitants. According to testimonies by officials of Serviços de urbanismo de Maxixe, the coastal road leading to the hospital of Chicuque was cut after a gully was formed.

The most recent event happened on December 27th, 2008, with 225 mm falling after two rainy days (174.9 mm) in Maxixe (total of 419 mm in four days) and 240 mm after two rainy days (200 mm) in Inhambane (total of 655 mm in four days) (Table 3). INGC’s Provincial Delegation and the Provincial Delegation for Environmental Action Coordination intervened during the flooding event to bring support to the affected inhabitants and to manage the crisis.

Rainfall (mm) STATION Date 1 day 2 days 4 days Inhambane 27/12/2008 239.8 440.2 655.3 Return period (year) 105 >300 >300 Maxixe 27/12/2008 225.4 309.7 419 Return period (year) 65 66 109

Table 3: Rainfall observed over 1, 2 and 4 days during maximum daily rainfall observed at the stations of Inhambane and Maxixe and assessment of the return periods.

From INGC, the study was able to obtain indicative qualitative information about the limits and state of flooded areas in neighbourhoods Chalambe 2 and Liberdade 3 (Inhambane). This was complemented by interviews with local inhabitants. There was no testimony of flooding that might have occurred due to seawater surges during the extreme rainy event of December 2008.

The 2008 extreme rain event lasted from 25 to 28 December in both towns, albeit with different characteristics. The previous adjustments allowed estimating the return period of this event, the last significant rainfall event for which it was possible to collect information on the damages caused. The very long duration of rain during this event, is likely to have completely saturated the ground and probably ended with high-intensity rains, which would explain the exceptional feature of this event.

Using a “shorter duration rainfall” – “daily rainfall” ratio, computed with data from Mayotte (north of the Mozambique Channel – Stollsteiner et al., 2008), and the daily- frequency value, the probable frequency values for rainfall lasting less than one day could be defined (Table 4), but these orders of magnitude should be validated with more local data.

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INHAMBANE Rainy event duration (in hours) 1 2 3 6 12 24 48 96 Daily Rainfall (DR) ratio 0.52 0.65 0.72 0.86 1.03 1.23 1.47 1.75 10 years DR = 161 mm 84 105 116 138 166 198 237 282 100 years DR = 238 mm 124 155 181 205 245 293 350 493

Table 4: Estimated rainfall values for a rainy event duration between 1 hour and 4 days for return periods of 10 and 100 years at Inhambane meteorological station (in mm).

No rainfall data could be collected for periods of less than one day. To assess the quantities of rain that may be involved, it is recommended to use IDF curves produced in “Regulamento dos sistemas publicos de Distibuiçao de Agua e Drenagem de Agua Residuais” 2003 designed for Maputo area (Figure 6) and then to introduce a “local” coefficient.

Figure 6: Intensity Duration Frequency rainfall curves for Maputo

Using these curves (or a and b parameters), we can define the probable frequency values for rainfall lasting less than three hours (Table 5).

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IDF INHAMBANE

Coeff. 0,8 Return period (years) 2 5 10 20 25 50 Duration (minutes) mm mm mm mm mm mm 60 36 49 58 66 69 77 120 47 65 77 88 92 103 180 55 76 91 105 109 123

Table 5: Estimated rainfall values for a rainy event duration between 1, 2 and 3 hours for different return periods for the coastal area of Inhambane province.

2.4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (2030, 2060, 2100)

Climate change can affect intensity, frequency and magnitude of hazard events. The summary work carried out in Mozambique by the INGC (Asante et al, 2009), which presents the conclusions of the 2007 IPCC, and proposes regional scenarios, constitutes the study’s main reference for interpreting local changes. Nevertheless, it was not possible to downscale global and regional climate-change models applied to extreme rainfall events, cyclones, and sea-level rise.

2.4.1. Future climate trends

The presentation below focuses on climate change that may affect flooding, soil and coastal erosion, as well as coastal flooding hazards5. Precipitation

The 2009 INGC report acknowledges that past pluviometric trends are much more heterogeneous than those relating to temperatures. Results of the study regarding changes to rainfall (INGC report, 2009) are expressed over four seasons between 2046 and 2065. Furthermore, indices are reported that have given rise to main research concern: the persistence of rain-free days (MAM6 and SON seasons), the duration of dry periods, the starting date of the rainy season, evapotranspiration (PET).

From changes in average rainfall expected during this period in Mozambique, it appears that the overall rainfall in Mozambique may increase during the DJF7 and MAM seasons, for the coastal areas that are the most affected (between +1.0 and +1.5 mm/day). The actual figures are around 1 mm/day for the earlier period and

5 Drought risks are excluded from this study, which focuses on the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe. Droughts have not, to date, affected the sector being studied, and the damage suffered by the population has involved the risk of flooding in an urban context. 6 MAM = March, April and May. SON = September, October and November. 7 DJF = December, January and February.

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1.5 mm/day for the later one – on average over a 20-year period. These figures reflect changes in average precipitation levels, and do not explain changes in rainfall intensity.

Flood risks are linked to extreme precipitation events that can only be studied when considering a long-term climate-change scenario, and by downscaling global climate models to regional or local scales.

This downscaling was tried for climate studies applied to Mozambique. Tadross (2009) concluded: “One important drawback of this proposed modeling approach was that the statistical downscaling methodology is currently based on historical observations and so is unable to project daily rainfall intensities beyond what is currently experienced at a particular location. It therefore underestimates the maximum potential floods in a future climate, though it can capture changes in the frequency of large floods. Current research is seeking to address this issue in the near future”.

Therefore, the efforts made to get useful results for the modelling of flooding on a Mozambique-wide scale, with regional downscaling, in order to get future scenarios for 2046-2065 and 2080-2100, have not been successful so far. For the future, it will be necessary to define more accurately the intensities of daily rainfall (which is known to be a difficult task and needs a lot of data), for a more accurate analysis of their impact on swells and flooding (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Extract from “Modelagem do risco de inundaçao” in Analisis das Mudanças Climaticas: INGC Alteraçoes Climaticas Relatorio, (Asante et al, 2009)

Cyclones Many global models represent cyclones, with wide variations in the results of these studies. The recent trends in observations and the results of long-term model simulations (despite variability between results) suggest that climate change will affect the characteristics of tropical cyclones in the south-west Indian Ocean with an increasing trend in intensity, though cyclone frequency may probably decrease in the early part of the cyclone season.

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Mean sea level

In the projections of future climate change throughout this century, Meehl (IPCC-PIAC, 2007) drew a set of model sea-level rises for 2090-2100 (based on sea levels for 1980- 1999). This provided an increase in the range of 180 mm to 590 mm by 2100, depending on the emission scenario used.

Rahmstorf (2007) used a linear relationship extrapolated from 20th Century observations (and thought to be only an initial evolution), for predicting a rise in sea level between 50 cm and 140 cm depending on the scenario. He recommended not excluding rising sea-level rates greater than those predicted by the IPCC, and retained for example the value of 1 m by 2100 for adaptation-measure purposes.

2.4.2. Scenarios used for this study

Current indications are that rainfall intensities will most likely increase in the coastal regions, especially around central Mozambique. However, no quantified information is available in the UNDP climate-change country profile compiled by the University of Oxford.

In relation with the natural hazards considered in this study (flooding, soil and coastal erosion), only sea-level-rise scenarios were introduced for assessing its effect on the potentially increase in coastal-flooding hazards.

Until now, the only studies on the consequences of sea-level rise along the coast of Mozambique took into account a rise of 5 m. This is an extreme scenario (considered by some authors and based on models from melting ice caps) that has the advantage of facilitating the mapping of flooded areas even if knowledge of the topography (DEM) is inadequate.

For this study, we have adopted a scenario of a sea-level rise of 1 m by 2100.

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3. Risk Assessment

3.1. DATA USED AND LIMITATIONS The data necessary for carrying out the study were collected between May and July 2010, and obtained from public organizations in Mozambique (Maputo) and locally from the representatives of the Government of the province of Inhambane, from the Provincial Delegations of INGC, the technical services of the Municipalities of Inhambane and of Maxixe, and various public agencies. The data used as background to the study included (see Methodological Report for further details): o Four mosaics of black-and-white aerial photographs from 1963 (approximate scale 1:50,000) as photographic prints and images that were digitized but not geo- referenced. They cover the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe. These are mosaics EF14-E9, E10 (28/and EF14-F9) and F10 constructed from the aerial photographs carried out during two missions on 28/09/1963 and 19/12/1963; o Topographical map (Series Carta de Portugal 1:50,000 – Provincia de Moçambique), sheet N°1110 – 2335 C4 (Inhambane) published in 1971 based on aerial surveys carried out in 1963 (see above). The map was delivered in paper format and in digital format at a resolution of 254 DPI (DINAGECA, 2002); o Landsat TM5 Image – assembly of images 166-076 and 166-077 dated 1 June 2004, of the area covered by sheet N°1110, at a resolution of 30 m; o Geological map at 1:250,000 scale, covering Inhambane; o Soil map FAO 1:1,000,000 scale (Soil and Terrain Database of Mozambique, A. Souirji, 1997); o Extracts of satellite images from 2003 (Google Earth); o Land-registry plans of the neighbourhoods Chalambe 2 and Liberdade 3. Other maps extracted from the Plano Director de Urbanismo (Master plan for urbanism) (2006) presented the possible options for the urban development of Municipio; o A schematic map of Maxixe municipalities showing the neighbourhood “boundaries A” (map of the urban centre of Maxixe showing streets and drainage systems); o Navigation chart of the estuary. Survey by the Mozambique hydrographic mission from 1962-1963 at a scale of 1:50,000. "Plano hidrografico do Porto de Inhambane". The topography (limited to tracing the coastline and giving a summary land use) was drawn from the topographical land-registry maps of the Direcçao dos Serviços de Agrimensura (1957-1958) and the maps from the Serviços Geograficos et Cadastrais (1960-1961); o Maputo sea-level records for the periods 1994-1995 and 2005-2009; o Monthly climatic data (rainfall, temperature and humidity) from Inhambane station; o Daily rainfall data from the various stations of the Ara Sul Project;

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o Rainfall data from the stations at Maxixe and Inhambane over the periods 1965- 2009 and 1951-2008; o Hydrometric data from the Ara Sul project in Maxixe. In addition, the study purchased very high resolution (VHR) satellite images in order to dispose of a topographic background for the different mapping purposes and for performing various urban and morphological analyses. This included two GeoEye images: one panchromatic with a resolution of 0.5 m and the second in four color bands with a resolution of 2 m, and two ALOS panchromatic images with a ground resultion of 2.5 m.

From the ALOS image, it was possible to construct a DEM with a ground resolution of 5 m. This DEM proved to be a crucial tool for the morphological analysis.

The data used had several important gaps and limitations:

• There were several differences in the monthly rainfall amounts between data from Ara Sul and from the national meteorological office for the station at Inhambane, probably due to missing data, timing of measurements, and different data-input processes.

• Local sea-level records from INAHINA presented many gaps, in particular for the flood events of 2000 and 2008, and the Favio cyclone of February 2007.

• Accurate maps of the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe or a topographic (altitude) database were not available. Due to these limitations, it became necessary to adapt the work plan in order to fulfil the GIS design goals. This required building a template with a few examples of data recording, particularly for the urban fabric, strategic buildings, roads and streets, as well as water supply facilities. Complete data sets may need to be gathered in the future by INGC to finalize these templates.

Due to the inadequacy of available information, three levels of accuracy were used for the mapping: − National level, corresponding to data with an accuracy compatible with a carto- graphic scale ranging from 1:1,000,000 to 1:250,000; − Provincial level, for cartographic scale from 1:250,000 to 1:50,000; − Urban level, for cartographic scale from 1:50,000 to 1:1,000. In each level, different domains were considered. The architecture of these domains is described in detail in Appendix 2.

Considering the lack of urban information, the final models were expert models, less complex and more robust than physical models requiring several accurate basic data. Morphology data and soil and land use were assembled for deriving Natural-Hazards and Risks tables. Urban-development and infrastructure data were computed from administrative data. Risk-mapping data then were computed from the Natural-Hazards and Risks tables, associated with urbanism and infrastructure data.

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3.2. NATURAL HAZARDS MAPPING

Based on the analysis presented above, the following hazards were assessed for this study: soil erosion and run-off, rain floods, coastal and marine floods, and coastal cliff erosion.

Volume 2 of this report presents all hazards maps at a scale of 1:10,000. The digital data are delivered on the GIS DVD ROM.

3.2.1. Soil Erosion Hazard For Inhambane, erosion did not appear as a major hazard after the first field work in May 2010, as no erosion problems were recorded in the studied neighbourhoods. So the complete spatial analysis of soil erosion only focused on Maxixe. The MESALES model, “Regional Modelling of Soil Erosion Hazard” (Le Bissonnais et al., 1998, 2002), was used for computing the soil-erosion hazard.

Soil erodibility was mapped by means of soil type, land use and topographic parameters. Each soil and land-use class was codified by considering its erodibility. This codification allowed taking into account the impact of paved roads (important run- off, low level of erodibility) and unpaved roads (strong sensitivity to run-off and erosion). When these are combined with climatic information, MESALES provides a soil-erosion hazard map for the different seasons: annual average, rainy season, intermediate, and dry season. Figure 8 illustrates the rainy season.

The erosion-hazard level, which is medium or low during the dry season with slight rain, becomes strong to medium during the rainy season because of the erosivity of heavy rain.

3.2.2. Runoff and Soil Erosion The study used a STREAM model for evaluating sediment transport in watersheds. This model requires soil and land-use maps, accurate DEM, information on soil permeability, and rainfall data (height and intensity). Soil permeability varies from 0 mm/h (paved roads), to 60 mm/h (forest, etc.). Except for built-up areas, soils are highly permeable, with permeability varying between 25 and 250 m/h. These values were considered for the same kinds of soils in both Maxixe and Inhambane. The modelling focused on two major past intense rainfall events: March 17th, 2000 (195.7 mm in 5 hours), and December 27th, 2008 (225.4 mm in 5, 7 and 9 hours).

STREAM modelling shows clearly significant erosion rates for these two major events in 2000 and, especially, 2008. In 2008, the heavy rain lasted for 5 hours (225 mm in 5 hours); the erosion rate was 7.8 t/ha in watershed 7 and 8.5 t/ha in watershed 6 (Figure 9). The user can obtain for each point of the map the level of run-off (m3) and erosion (tonnes) for the event modelled. During the field work, the study consultants observed damage (gullies) at, and immediately upstream of, the outlets; however, there were no observed linear erosion features in agricultural land. Erosion seems to be a problem in the urban areas of Maxixe, with intense run-off in the streets resulting in erosion because of the streets’ highly erodible sandy composition. During flooding, urban

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roadways become channels with deep gullies, which are highly problematic for the population as they disrupt urban travel.

The level of hazards for erosion varies from 1 (very low hazard: no gully erosion) to 5 (very high hazard: important and deep gullies).

Figure 8: MESALES erosion-hazard mapping for rainy season (focus on Maxixe)

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Figure 9: Erosion modelling with STREAM for the 2008 rainy event (in tonnes for this rainy event) – the numbers refer to the designation of the different watersheds in Maxixe”

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3.2.3. Flooding hazards Regional hydrology

The watershed of the river Guiua is located to the south of Inhambane. The available measurements confirm the high level of ground infiltration and the low values for run- off. Over the entire period (1970-1979 then 2001-2009), the average daily flow varied between 0.26 and 0.70 m3/s for a watershed of nearly 90 km2.

The watershed of the river Inhanombe is located to the west of Maxixe. The period of available data from this station covers 1957-2009, but it includes three gaps representing a third of this period. Even though its flow varied more than that of the river Guiua, their variations remain representative of a permeable watershed. Thus, over the entire period, the average daily flow varied between 1.25 and 123 m3/s for a watershed of more than 1,000 km2.

The situation is different for watersheds mapped on Figure 10 (right) currently under ongoing urbanization, where the efficient global run-off will, as a result of increasing sealing, increase very strongly and quickly. Flood flows

The study produced a map of flood flows based on the STREAM model, outlets identified by field observations and located by GPS, and a simulation of the 27 December 2008 rain event (a 100-year-return event) that caused extensive damage, particularly to the road network. The study then extracted, for outlets corresponding to a thalweg (stream corridor), the volume of run-off flow corresponding to the exceptional rain episode of December 2008. Outlets 4b, 5b, 5f, 5g and 5h (Figure 10) corresponding to work carried out on the road network, could not be identified on the run-off map. This allows for the assembly of flood-hazard mapping, based solely on the topography of the region of Maxixe.

When the slope is particularly low, a simple trench beside the road will allow shifting flow to a work tens of metres away, while the thalweg will model the flow in the initial position. This means that, for highly urbanized areas, (1) the model must integrate all works and (2) that the DEM must be as accurate as possible.

In consequence, this mapping appears to be adapted only to areas that are little or no urbanized. Urban run-off will follow the streets, totally deflecting the flow directions that are concentrated and therefore significantly increase the hazard level. Run-off that passes through an area of scattered habitation will not generate a high hazard level. If this run-off is driven in a uncontrolled manner to bottlenecks corresponding to the streets of Maxixe, the flow will accelerate to a greater water height due to the existence of the obstacles, resulting in a much higher hazard level.

According to the water height and the possible frequency, areas have been qualified as zones of low (<0.5 m), moderate (0.5 to 1 m), high (1 to 2 m) and very high (>2 m) hazard level.

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Outlet Runoff (103m3) area (ha) Runoff / area 1 56.8 29.9 1899.7 2a 11.4 5.6 2039.4 2b 12.8 6.3 2038.2 3 177.8 260.8 681.7 4a 30.5 15.1 2019.9 4b 0 1 0.0 4c 8.4 4.3 1944.4 5a 7.5 3.2 2343.8 5b 21.3 48.7 437.4 5c 22.1 31.1 710.6 5d 46.8 225 208.0 5e, 5f, 5g, 5h 0 0 6 67.2 386.9 173.7 7 48.9 223.8 218.5 8 1.1 61.7 17.0 9 26.3 350.7 75.0 10 4.8 29.6 162.2

Figure 10: Flood hazard zones for field identified outlets on the STREAM map (modelling rain from 12/27/2008 - 225 mm in 5 hours) (left) - Maxixe – (the numbers represent the different outlets)

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Flooding hazard of the pilot neighbourhoods of Inhambane (Figure 11)

Rainwater depths in hollow areas commonly reach or exceed 50 cm. More rarely, they can reach 1 m and very rarely in a few places, under the combined action of groundwater and accumulated rainwater run-off, they may reach 2 m. In those hollows, flow velocity is very low or even non-existent and thus, except in the case of children, there are few areas where life is endangered or where there is a risk of damage to buildings. It should not be forgotten that some of the floods may indeed, at least partly, be due to a rise in the water levels of shallow aquifers.

Figure 11: Map of “Depression filled by excessive run-off” hazards in the neighbourhoods of Liberdade 3 and Chalambe 2 (Inhambane)

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Flooding hazard of pilot neighbourhood of Maxixe (Figure 12)

Figure 12: Map of “Depression filled by excessive run-off” hazards in the pilot neighbourhoods of Maxixe

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• Neighbourhood Chambone 1, 5 and 6

No thalweg is detectable close to the urban centre and streets run in its place. This is one of the main sources of flooding in the middle of the town centre. Floodwater may occupy the entire width of roads and certain areas below private gardens, damaging unpaved roads, some housing areas and parked vehicles. Roads identified as prone to channelling floodwater have been classified as high hazard-level areas.

Roads located farther to the south-east, in areas where floodwater can escape, are classified as medium hazard-level areas (see Figure 12).

• Mazambanine

In this area, two watersheds flow out near the neighbourhood with relatively steep slopes. Flow, due to run-off, may travel along the roads and also cut in front of houses at relatively high speeds if it is concentrated. Water depths will nevertheless be limited.

• Coastal road of Chicuque

Following the increase in run-off coming from the main road leading north and the increase in run-off following development of the district upstream, the high level of erosion seen near the structures crossing the seaside road will continue and the thalwegs will thus gradually move upstream (regressive erosion).

The main run-off avenues, including the crossing road, may receive significant flow with a depth and speed of water sufficient to cause damage to property and persons. Also, the run-off may locally change direction if the avenue becomes blocked, because the newly formed thalwegs are unstable and easily eroded.

All of these thalwegs, except those in the upper part of the basin, must thus be considered as zones of high hazard level.

We note that any change in the road directions may cause a change in the preferred flow avenues, thus shifting the zones of high hazard level.

3.2.4. Coastal flooding

Coastal flooding could affect low lying areas of the pilot neighbourhoods in both Inhambane and Maxixe (Chalambe 2, Liberdade 3 and Mazambanine), although to date, this has not been reported. However, this finding should be put into context, given the fact that the systematic occupation of these low-lying coastal areas is very recent (about ten years), and that local people have put simple measures in place to protect, under normal conditions, their land and homes from being flooded by the sea.

Such protection comprises levies made up of a mixture of sand or earth and household waste and vegetation, of less than 50 cm high where in contact with the high point of the beach (levels exposed to waves), or at the limit of the muddy foreshore or silt licks (levels with little exposure to waves). These small levies have a negative impact on the natural evacuation of run-off water from upstream, which can no longer empty into the sea.

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Today, it is common to find homes backing onto the beach at a height extremely close to the high-water spring-tide level, and separated from the sea by only a thin strip of sand that protects, under normal conditions, the land from being flooded by the sea.

Since historic data do not exist, our coastal flooding mapping was based in part on field observations and on the high-resolution digital elevation model acquired for this study. The reference sea levels (normal and extreme levels) were used and compared with altimetric data for known areas using the digital elevation model. Due to the limits of this model, hazard zoning can merely have an indicative value, and cannot be considered as absolute and definitive.

Considering the sea-level characteristics given in Appendix 3, Table 6 below gives the characteristic values of surges and tide levels (the highest astronomic tides in Inhambane8). We note that a ten-year or one-hundred-year surge need not necessarily coincide with a very high tide.

Port Inhambane Return period 10 years 100 years Surge 50 cm 100 cm MAMA (2010) 160 cm 160 cm Extreme sea level 210 cm 260 cm

Table 6: Surges, maximum astronomical tide levels (MAMA) and extreme levels used for Inhambane.

MAMA and extreme sea levels are compared with the average sea level (1.93 m) or datum from terrestrial maps. Figures for the highest astronomic tides (MAMA) in Inhambane are not available. In the absence of this data, the maximum levels attained in 2010 at Inhambane were related to levels attained at Maputo in 2010. In 2010, the highest astronomical tides at Maputo reached 3.8m above the hydrographic zero, that is to say 1.7m above the average level. The highest astronomical tides in 2010 in Inhambane reached a sea level of 3.5 m above hydrographic zero, that is to say almost 1.6 m above the average level. We will therefore use the value of 1.6 m above the average level as the highest astronomical tides (MAMA) for Inhambane.

With reference to characteristic sea levels in Inhambane Bay, three coastal flooding zones (A, B and C) were defined according to the hazard level.

All the altitudes given below have a reference to the DEM. For example, 1.6 m given from the DEM means that the ground is 1.6m above the mean sea level (1.93 m). An illustration is given in Figure 13.

8 In Portuguese: Maré astronómica mais alta (MAMA)

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Figure 13: Tidal levels (water sea level - WSL) and surges characteristics in Inhambane

Zone A – High Hazard (land less than 1 m high, approximate average of 0.5 m above mean sea level) has an elevation such that at any tide (spring or neap tide), the land is located below the high tide level. This land is damp and difficult to drain. It is not regularly flooded, as it is located inland (basin, depression cut off from the sea by higher land), or on the edge of the sea and artificially protected by low earth levies. In the event of a ten-yearly surge (+2.1 m), land in zone A could on average be under 1.5 m of water (2 m at most). Zone A is therefore categorized as high hazard.

For zone B – Medium Hazard (land between 1 and 2 m in height, approximate average of 1.5 m above mean sea level), the land is (on average) safe from the highest annual tides (MAMA9 of +1.6 m). On the other hand, the land would be fully flooded in the event of a ten-yearly surge, when the sea level can reach 2.1 m. Land would then be under an average of 0.5 m of water (between 0 and 1 m across the zone). Zone B is categorized as medium hazard.

Zone C – Low Hazard (land between 2 and 3 m in height – approximate average of 2.5 m above mean sea level) is only flooded by surges occurring less than every 10 years. If one considers that the extreme sea level reaches 2.6 m for a 100-year return period, this zone will be partially flooded by the sea, with depths of at most around 0.6 m in the lowest areas. Zone C is categorized as low hazard.

9 MAMA: maximum astronomical tide level (In Portuguese: Maré astronómica mais alta)

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These different areas were mapped in the districts of Chalambe 2 (Figure 14) and Liberdade 3 (Figure 15) in Inhambane, and the Mazambanine neighbourhood (Figure 16) in Maxixe.

Figure 14: Coastal flooding mapping – Chalambe 2

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Figure 15: Coastal flooding mapping – Liberdade A (north) and B (south)

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Figure 16: Coastal flooding mapping – Mazambanine (Maxixe).

3.2.5. Coastal Cliff hazard

Along both sides of the bay, marine erosion has caused locally stiffer slopes that may even form nearly vertical cliffs. Such cliffs generally are a few metres high, but can reach 15 m or more.

Due to the material constituting the slopes and cliffs, and their geotechnical behaviour that can lead to landslides or cliff collapses, and/or to the formation of gullies, it has been considered that landslides and gullies can occur everywhere within the slope. These phenomena may significantly affect a strip upstream and downstream from the cliff. For that reason a very high hazard has been affected to the main slope, and a high hazard is affected to both the downstream and upstream strips with a width equivalent to the cliff height. This height is estimated from the DEM.

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Figure 17: Example of coastal cliff hazard mapping in Maxixe

A moderate hazard strip is also assumed to exist in the inshore direction from the upstream high hazard strip; its width is also equivalent to the cliff height.

3.3. VULNERABILITY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK FACING MULTIPLE HAZARDS

The level of risk in the study areas was assessed by combining hazards with exposed elements, taking into account their respective vulnerability. It was thus necessary to determine a few categories of elements at risk and to define their vulnerability toward the identified hazard types. Unconstructed sectors

Unconstructed sectors can be affected by flooding, erosion and gullies with local landslides (gullies and coastal cliffs). These phenomena may be characterized by fast kinetics, which may destabilize trees and induce significant loss of cultivable soil. In sectors with significant slopes, it is thus important to adapt the agricultural techniques for preventing soil erosion.

Coastal sectors may be exposed to marine erosion, which can lead to a recession of the coastline, and to a weakening and even destruction of infrastructures situated near the sea. In addition, the salinization of soils may hinder any agriculture.

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Built-up sectors

In Inhambane and Maxixe, urbanization includes different types that range from informal settlements to fully urbanized inner-city areas. Three main categories of buildings (Figure 18) have been identified: • Wooden huts corresponding mainly to precarious settlements, built on a wood stud structure with plaited palm walls, or mixed-structure houses (breeze- blocks and wood); • Masonry houses are one-story houses built on a concrete stud structure with breeze-block or brick walls; • Concrete buildings with one or two stories,

Figure 18: From left to right: wooden huts and masonry house in Mazambanine (Maxixe), and concrete building in Chambone (Maxixe)

The most threatened constructions, which may be significantly damaged and even destroyed during a hazardous event (and therefore at the origin of possible human victims) are wooden huts. Masonry or concrete buildings, even without floors, generally resist better with few victims due to physical damage to the buildings.

Due to these fast-kinetics hazards, other infrastructures (walls, gutters, buzzards) can also be damaged. Very often, damage to such works is partially due to faulty workmanship. Such damage may even significantly increase the overall risk in a given zone. Buried networks can also be destroyed.

Landslides and collapse affecting coastal cliffs represent the main kinetic hazard. They may affect buildings located at the top of the cliff, or below it. In this last case, the weaker buildings (such as wood huts), are the most vulnerable to destabilized masses.

Hazards with slow kinetics (e.g. depression flooding) generally do not threaten human lives. The damage to buildings, in particular weak constructions, mostly consists in progressive cracking, sometimes endangering their stability. Secondary works (enclosing walls, low walls, breast walls, collectors, pipes, buzzards, gutters, etc.) can also crack and break.

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Road infrastructure

Two main categories of roads and streets have been identified: unpaved roads, and asphalted roads. Both can be main axes. In comparison, most streets constituting the local network are much narrower and basically unpaved. Roads can be damaged by the various hazards likely to occur in the study area. Flooding and excessive run-off may damage totally or partially both unpaved and asphalted roads (Figure 19). Besides flooding, excessive run-off with fast kinetics and landslides can deposit materials on the roads, generating temporary, partial or total interruption of traffic. The associated load may also cause damage.

Figure 19: Effects of flooding on streets and roads (photo INGC - 2009)

Coastal flooding or slow kinetics flooding can induce cracking in secondary works (pavements, breast walls, gutters, etc.).

3.4. RISK MAPPING

Hazard-specific risk maps classify sectors according to the probability of damage (human and material, frequency and potential gravity) associated to the corresponding hazard. Risk matrices are derived as presented in the methodological report, by considering each of the previously assessed hazards (Table 7), combined with each of the five identified exposed-element categories according to their vulnerability. Based on the hazard zoning, the resulting 25 risk maps display the corresponding level of risk for the concerned category of exposure.

Hazard abbreviation Element at risk abbreviation CF Coastal flooding B1 Wooden hut DR Depression flooding B2 Masonry house CC Coastal cliff erosion B3 Concrete building TF Thalweg flood R1 Unpaved road SF Street flood R2 Asphalted road

Table 7: List of hazards and exposed-element categories considered for assessment.

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These maps are useful for deriving an action plan for reducing the risks, the actions being specific for each kind of element at risk and each hazard phenomenon. It then becomes possible to draw up recommendations for town planning in order to minimize the risk (i.e. decrease of the vulnerability of exposed elements), and to define adaptation measures for reducing the risk by acting on the hazard intensity itself.

Attention must be paid to the fact that these risk maps do not provide significant guidelines for land-use planning in non-urbanized areas, due to the lack of exposed elements (thus maintaining the risk at a low level). It is important to differentiate these risk maps from hazard maps, which are more suitable for land-use planning.

Composite risk maps were derived in order to consolidate the possibilities of damage to the different types of elements at risk. For each category (example in Figure 20), the corresponding GIS cover includes the following data, specific to a composite risk analysis: 9 A synthetic risk attribute (text) gathering all information related to the different hazards; 9 The local maximum risk level whatever the hazard. This maximum risk level is used for map representation.

From this risk assessment and mapping, some concluding points can be highlighted: • Coastal-cliff erosion (landslides, cliff collapse and gully formation) represents high risk zones whatever the elements at risk considered; • Thalweg and street flooding are commonly associated with high-risk zones. As for landslides, high-kinetic events must be considered as the most dangerous; • For low-kinetic events, i.e. depression and coastal flooding, the height of water is the main risk parameter. The potential of 2 m (or more) of water could lead to important damage, justifying a high risk-level ranking.

It must be emphasized that this study is, in a very large part, based on the most usable acquired documents, which were a satellite DEM for morphological analysis, very high- resolution satellite images for land-cover analysis and field observations. Therefore, the presented results are a first approach that should not be used at a scale larger than 1:10,000

Volume 2 of this report gives all the risk maps at a scale of 1:10,000 (also available on the GIS DVD ROM).

Street flooding is considered to be a high risk everywhere including the Chicuque road (Estrada marginais). (Figure 20)

Other high-risk areas are associated with thalweg flooding or coastal-cliff erosion. Depression-flood-prone areas are mainly considered as low-risk level with very few points at moderate risk. This is also true for coastal flooding.

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Composite risk mapping - Unpaved roads Composite risk mapping - Wood huts

(Maxixe) (Maxixe)

Composite risk mapping - Unpaved roads Composite risk mapping - Wood huts

(Inhambane) (Inhambane)

Figure 20: Example of composite risk map for “unpaved roads” and “wood huts”

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4. Socio-Economic Analysis

4.1. CONTEXT OF THE TOWNS

Both neighbourhoods in Inhambane are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards because they are located along the coast. They have few paved roads, no drainage systems and lack urban planning. In Maxixe, the same characteristics are found in Mazambanine and Chambone 6. Several neighbourhoods in the town of Inhambane were created by a large influx of people that were fleeing the civil war violence. They settled where there was space, thus explaining the lack of urban planning. In Maxixe, Chambone 6 and Mazambanine were settled by poorer people requiring a certain proximity to public services and employment. This group also includes fishermen that need to be close to the water to maintain their livelihood.

The following socio-economic analysis is based on participatory data collection within focus group discussions, interviews of selected stakeholders, and a quantitative survey by questionnaire. The data collection was conducted in the four neighbourhoods chosen for this study, namely Liberdade 3 and Chalambe 2 in Inhambane and Chambone10 and Mazambanine in Maxixe. The quantitative survey covered 300 households in the four neighbourhoods and three blocks within each neighbourhood. This meant that 75 households in each neighbourhood were interviewed, specifically 25 in each Quarteirão (block). Additionally, eight focus-group discussions were held during a scoping phase of the study prior to the survey, and five were held during the stakeholder analysis after the scoping phase. All discussions were done using participatory methods. In addition, over 20 potential stakeholders were interviewed.

The results presented below describe the socio-economic characteristics of the surveyed neighbourhoods. They also inform the Chapter on Adaptation Options as interviewees were asked to describe the way in which their neighbourhoods were vulnerable to natural hazards; how they coped and adapted to these vulnerabilities; and what could be done to reduce their vulnerability and increase their resilience to natural hazards. A more detailed discussion of the sources informing the adaptation options will be presented in the Adaptation Options chapter.

4.2. DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HOUSEHOLDS

Of the interviewed households, 64% were male headed and 36% were female headed. The average age of the household head was 49 years and the average number of household members was 8.1, which is twice that of the provincial rate. About 62% of

10 Originally, the study was to be carried out in Chambone 2 in Maxixe, but after the scoping visit it was clear that this neighbourhood was not in fact vulnerable to natural hazards and climate change. Therefore, the quantitative study was carried out in Chambone 1, 5 and 6.

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the households are married compared to the provincial average of 44%. The highest level of education attained by a head of household is the university level. It is interesting to note, however, that a higher number of female-headed households have a university degree or high-school level of education than male-headed households.

4.3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS OF HEADS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND OTHER WORKING MEMBERS

This section presents the occupation, income sources, expenditures and assets of the households. Almost 42% of the households did not have any members with a formal job and 41% had only one family member who earned a monthly salary or pension (Figure 21).

Figure 21: Household Members with a formal job

Male-headed households mostly work in the public (34%) and private (18%) sectors, probably due to a higher level of education. Conversely, female-headed households are typically unemployed or are housewives (39%), or they work in the informal economy (25%). In Inhambane, 33% of the household heads worked in the public sector (probably due to the presence of most of the government offices). In Maxixe, more household heads worked in the private sector (20%) than in the public sector (18%). This may be related to National Road EN1, acting as a commercial hub.

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All neighbourhoods, except for Chalambe 2, are engaged in the informal economy. Consequently, Chalambe 2 has the highest rate of unemployment of the four neighbourhoods (22%) whilst Liberdade 3 has the lowest rate (11%). Additionally, nearly 65% of the households surveyed paid taxes. Finally, most households earn between 2,500 and 5,000 meticais a month. More male-headed households have earnings from steady employment than female-headed households, the latter receiving most of their income from the informal economy.

4.4. LAND AND HOUSING TENURE AND CHARACTERISTICS

Prior to conducting the survey a scoping visit was carried out, during which it became apparent that many of the vulnerabilities identified in relation to natural hazards stemmed from poor land-use and imperfect urban planning by the municipalities. In Mozambique, The Territorial Planning Policy, Law and Regulation (LOT)11, results from recognition of the difficulties created by unplanned occupation of space, especially in urban centres. This law provides the legal framework for achieving a sustainable and rational use of natural resources, and for preserving the environment, promoting social cohesion, valuing the diverse potential of each region, promoting the citizens’ quality of life in rural and urban areas, and improving housing and urban infrastructure and the security of populations vulnerable to natural or human provoked disasters.

The LOT and its regulations also seek to provide urban settlements with sound spatial planning instruments. These should be based on participatory processes incorporating political, economic, social and environmental aspects. According to these two legal instruments, the formulation of Territorial Planning instruments must be based on participatory methods throughout the whole process. This should be done by making available information that will be included in the plan, through the participation of the public and private sectors in specific meetings, and through public consultations recorded through the minutes of meetings. Such a formulation process will guarantee the participation of all interested parties in the spatial planning process.

As was found in the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe, both the Law and its regulations on Territorial Planning are barely complied with by both the government and the communities. Most of the households that reside in the neighbourhoods selected for this study, initially settled there without having a permit or without following the participatory processes indicated by Mozambican Land Tenure and Spatial Planning Laws. It is important to note that these settlements surged unsystematically and not according to any Municipal Urban Plan. Nevertheless, the Municipalities attributed these households with the legal ownership documents (DUATS) for the land they were residing in. The following section illustrates the current land tenure and housing schemes in the Neighbourhoods and the current living conditions of the populations in the selected neighbourhoods.

11 Lei de Ordenamento Territorial 2007.

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4.4.1. Land Tenure In most neighbourhoods, the households have bought the land where they are currently living. Between 52% and 71% of the households own the land they live on. In Liberdade 3, 20% of the households inherited the land they live on. A high percentage of households also claimed to possess official ownership documents of the land: 63% in Liberdade 3, 67% in Chalambe 2, 59% in Chambone and 62% in Mazambanine. This is important, as a significant number of households are in areas at risk.

4.4.2. Housing Tenure

In all neighbourhoods, over 80% of the HHs stated that they owned the houses they live in. However, in both of the neighbourhoods in Inhambane and in Mazambanine, only 35-37% possesses an official document that proves they are the owner of the house, but in Chambone 64% of the households possessed an ownership document.

4.4.3. Housing Characteristics Most households had walls made of reeds/vegetation and are thus quite vulnerable to natural hazards. Chalambe 2 appeared less vulnerable than other barrios, as 89% of the households had a zinc-sheet roof to protect them against the rain. (Figure 22)

Figure 22: Roof characteristics In addition, 78%-80% of the households had electricity, except for Mazambanine where it was 64%. Fewer households had water connections: 75% of households had running water in Liberdade 3. Mazambanine has the least amount of water connections with 41%, making the neighbourhood the least hospitable. (Figure 23)

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Figure 23: Alternative water sources

4.4.4. Sanitation About 60% of the households had traditional latrines, which normally cannot withstand the effects of a natural disaster or flood. (Figure 24)

Figure 24: Types of sanitation systems As regards waste disposal, in Liberdade 3, 43% of the households dispose of their waste in a designated place in their neighborhood. In Chalambe 2, due to its location along the bay and a mangrove swamp, 52% of the households dispose of their waste on the beach, and in Chambone 41% dispose of their waste in a hole they have dug. Finally, in Mazambanine 39% of the households burn their waste.

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4.4.5. Drainage Over 70% of the households claimed that the neighbourhoods did not have drainage systems. In Inhambane, temporary drainage passageways are built by local dwellers during the rainy season, but these are quickly destroyed because they are made of precarious materials such as trash and sand. In Maxixe, the municipality and ANE have built some drainage passageways after the floods of 2000, but they are not located in all the neighbourhoods of this study.

4.5. HOUSEHOLD MATERIAL POSSESSIONS

In all neighbourhoods, most households spend a monthly average of 501-1,000 Meticais to over 2,000 Meticais on grocery products. This does not necessarily mean that they have a high income; on the contrary,, as the average household size is 8.1 members, the amount spent on each member is quite low.

The average expenditures of households on various items are listed below: 9 Household items: ƒ 0-100 Meticais on clothing ƒ 0-100 Meticais on school materials ƒ 0-100 Meticais on medication and medical consultations ƒ less than 100 Meticais on transport 9 Electricity: ƒ 55% of households spend less than 100 Meticais ƒ 45% spend 101-500 Meticais 9 Water: ƒ 42% spend less than 100 Meticais ƒ 58% spend 101-500 Meticais (unavailable household water connection). 9 Concerning monthly rental charges, a majority of households spend less than 100 Meticais (most people own their own homes).

4.6. MIGRATION PATTERNS

Less than 50% of the heads of households were born in their town of residence, due to the fact that most of the migration occurred during the civil war or immediately after it.

A large number claims to have moved to their town of residence for work. Other main reasons for moving were for studying, due to the war, and to be reunited with family. The neighbourhoods grew so fast that the municipalities did not have time to plan the neighbourhoods accordingly with roads, parcelling the houses and giving them access to electricity and water. Nearly 60% of the households chose the neighbourhood they currently live in because there was land available.

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4.7. SOCIAL NETWORKS

Around 66% of the households stated that they had no preoccupations that required outside help. Of those who said they did have preoccupations, 43% stated that their last concerns were related to robbery, theft and physical aggression. When it comes to conflict in their neighbourhood, most households turned to the closest authority, the Chief of the neighbourhood or Quarteirão (block). The population is more apt to ask local leaders for help than to ask the municipal government or other central authorities. This is important to keep in mind when designing and implementing the adaptation plan.

4.8. ACCESS TO SOCIAL/PUBLIC SERVICES Most of the households stated that the health centres and schools are between 5 and 30 minutes away by foot. Concerning illness, nearly 60% of households had at least one person fallen ill during the previous month, the main illness being malaria (58%). This can be attributed to the lack of drainage systems that cause the water to stagnate, thus increasing the incidence of water-borne diseases. Among the people that fell ill, 88% to 96% of the households stated that they went to a health facility for treatment. This suggests that they are aware of the benefits of proper healthcare and are in close proximity to a healthcare centre.

4.9. HOUSEHOLD PERCEPTION OF NATURAL HAZARD RISKS

4.9.1. Heavy Rain

Liberdade 3 is the least affected by heavy rains and Mazambanine is the most affected. Concerning water running uncontrollably through the neighbourhood, Liberdade 3 is least affected and Chalambe 2 is the most affected. Concerning pot holes created by water, Liberdade 3 does not seem affected and Mazambanine is most affected. Concerning waste carried in by water, Chalambe 2 is the least affected and Chambone is the most affected.

Over 60% of the households do not feel that their homes are directly impacted by heavy rain. In Liberdade 3 and Chalambe 2, the majority (respectively 65% and 51%) stated that their houses were not affected by heavy rain. But in both neighbourhoods in Maxixe, most households confirmed that their houses were affected by heavy rain, more specifically, 72% in Chambone and 55% in Mazambanine.

Concerning mitigation measures most households take no measures for reducing their susceptibility to the effects of heavy rain. In Mazambanine, 71% said they raised the land surface around their house with garbage to block the rainwater out.

4.9.2. High Tides

Chalambe 2 appears to be the most affected by high tides due to its geographic location along the coast without dykes for protection. Many access ways become flooded and water enters 81% of the houses and stores. In Mazambanine, 64% of

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households stated that water enters their houses. In Liberdade 3 and Chambone, no high tides occur. (Figure 25)

Figure 25: Do high tides affect the Neighborhoods?

4.9.3. Institutions that Provide Relief Efforts

Information on the kinds of relief effort that took place was collected and the results show that both Municipal Governments and friends and family are registered as providing relief to most households. The INGC, however, is not identified as providing relief efforts, which is quite suprising since they stated that they moved families after the 2008 floods. Very few households within the surveyed sample received relief materials when they were affected by natural hazards.

4.9.4. Willingness to Move from the Neighbourhoods

In this study it was critical to know if the populations of the neighbourhood, when given the option, would move away from their current residence or not, and for what reasons. This ascertained the households’ main concerns in relation to the neighbourhood they live in and the possible improvements, such as the availability of public services, reduction of crime, urban planning improvement, etc.. However, only 41% of households expressed any willingness to move. In Chalambe 2 and Mazambanine, where the vulnerability to natural hazards is most prevalent, this rate increased to about 50%. (Figure 26)

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Figure 26: Willingness to move

Concerning the destination to move to, in Liberdade 3, 50% of the households cited Nhampossa, an expansion neighbourhood in Inhambane, as their first choice. In Chalambe 2, 39% cited Muele in Inhambane. Both Chambone (33%) and Mazambanine (71%), stated that they would prefer to move to the zone of urban expansion in Maxixe.

4.10. IDENTIFICATION OF RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS

4.10.1. Identification of Stakeholders The study identified three different levels of stakeholders: central (national), provincial and local (town). Central level At the national level, INGC and the Coordinating Council for Disaster Management are the two main stakeholders. INGC is the state institution responsible for disaster management, and for designing policies and strategies for prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. It is part of the Coordinating Council for Disaster Management, a decision-making body composed of several ministries and national directorates. It is important to note that INGC only has power as part of this council, thus it cannot act on its own. Decisions made by this body are implemented by the Technical Council for Disaster Management.

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Provincial Level At the provincial level, the Technical Council for Disaster Management includes provincial representations of several ministries, other public institutions, such as INGC, and NGOs. This council is coordinated by the Representative of the State in Inhambane. The Technical Council meets monthly for planning purposes, and extraordinarily in case of emergency. The meetings during emergencies are meant to coordinate action, rather than decide on responsibilities. The Council's responsibilities include both prevention and response measures. Prevention measures are related to awareness and education campaigns. They also include early-warning mechanisms. Response measures involve search and rescue; provision of temporary shelter and food; first aid and epidemic-outburst monitoring; assistance to vulnerable groups; rebuilding of public infrastructure; and resettlement when appropriate. Local level At the local level, there are multiple stakeholders, few of which have immediate links between each other. The stakeholders mapped at this level were: • State representation; • Municipalities; • Two basic service providers: Water Supply Investment and Assets Fund (FIPAG), responsible for water distribution, and Electricity of Mozambique (EDM) responsible for electricity production, transport and distribution; • Traders; • Religious communities and leaders; • Community leaders; • Community members; • Media. The State Representation is a government-appointed body. In case of emergency, it coordinates the activities of the town's Technical Council for Disaster Management. It responds to the State Administration Ministry and its local representation: the Provincial Government. Municipalities are elected government bodies, responsible for managing the municipal services. The municipalities are perceived by every other stakeholder as the body most responsible not only for urban planning but also for mitigating the vulnerability to natural hazards. The powers of the State Representation seem to collide with those of the Municipalities, when it comes to coordinating efforts for mitigating citizen vulnerability. Both municipalities are now in the process of developing an urbanization plan that requires requalification of the studied areas. Both consider resettlement as the best option. They are creating expansion areas, where they want to attract some of the dwellers from vulnerable areas. So far they have been meeting with some resistance

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from their citizens, who complain that the areas are too far from the town centres, and thus from job opportunities. The expansion areas also lack basic services such as water, schools, health units and transport. Others say that it is difficult to leave one place and start over, after a lifetime of investment. The municipalities accept their responsibilities, regarding the mitigation of vulnerability in the affected areas, but say they struggle with a lack of human and financial resources to fully address all the issues that could help decrease such vulnerability. FIPAG and EDM, at the local level, both answer to their national representatives, who establish national strategies at a central level that will then be implemented at regional levels. At the local level, FIPAG and EDM have a relationship with the Municipality and, in principle, they discuss with the Municipality about which areas they need to expand to. If the needs for expansion on the national level and at the Municipal level do not coincide, then the national priorities prevail. The local FIPAG, more than the local EDM, can influence national strategy because they have local offices in both towns with a strategic planning division. EDM local offices are more implementers of national strategy and have less power to influence national policies. Interestingly enough, there is a perception that these service providers are driven by profit, despite the fact that both of them claim that supplying communities with water and energy is also a social service to which they are committed. They also claim that these services will not be supplied in areas that do not provide minimum liveable conditions. They do admit, however that their sustainability does depend on profit, and therefore clients. Both service providers are also affected by climatic hazards, as their infrastructure can be damaged or destroyed. As such, they would be strongly supportive of any initiative that would reduce the cost of repairing or replacing damaged assets. Religious communities are strongly implanted within the communities. They have been referred to by many stakeholders as institutions that could sparkle and influence behavioural change, as people revere and respect their religious representatives. Two communities have been particularly affected by natural hazards: the Hindu Community in Inhambane and the Muslim Community in Maxixe. Moreover, the Muslim Community in Maxixe has already been involved in actions to try and reduce the effects of erosion, such as planting trees. The majority of dwellers in the vulnerable areas, however, belong to protestant or other Christian churches. In many cases the churches they belong to do not have the financial capacity to fully support all affected community members. Still their influential behaviour-changing power is not questioned. Community leaders were said to be as influential with communities as religious leaders, as they are a bridge between the communities and official authorities. However, they were also accused of turning a blind eye to irregular settlement in the areas overseen by them. As mediators of land acquisition, they may even be complacent with irregular land distribution. Both Inhambane and Maxixe are scarce in media options. Newspapers arrive daily in both towns; there is a representation of Radio Moçambique and Television of

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Mozambique (TVM), which are both state-owned media entities that provide mostly national coverage. MISA also has representations in the province, and is situated in Radio Progresso, a local community radio. There is a representation of ICS (Social Communication Institute), which specializes in information for rural areas. Some of the contacted media have experience in providing disaster prevention information, such as early-warning messages. Some have also expressed that they would be interested in participating in mitigation initiatives, which may include behaviour-change messages. In general, they are well informed about Disaster Management initiatives and concur that the affected areas should be closely monitored and assisted.

4.10.2. Assessment of Stakeholders' Influence and Importance Based on the description above it is possible to map the interest and power of each stakeholder, for developing the best strategy on how to best engage with them. Interest is related to how much a stakeholder is affected by the issue or how interested he is in it. Power is related to how much influence a stakeholder has over the issue and how much he can help, or block the initiative from failing. The mapping of stakeholder interest and power was done by producing a matrix that was adapted from Mendelow’s (1991) widely used power-interest grid (Figure 27). The four general areas that divide stakeholders are as follows: • High interest and high power. These include the Coordinating Council for Disaster Management, the Technical Council for Disaster Management and the Municipal Councils. • High interest and low power: These include Community Members, Community Leaders, Religious Communities and their leaders, FIPAG and EDM. Even though their current power is low, these are critical stakeholders that should be actively involved in all discussions that lead to decision-making affecting their livelihoods (communities) or mandates (FIPAG/EDM). Specifically, Community Members have low power but they should collaborate and be empowered in different instances, such as in the adaptation-measures phase. However, they need to be given incentives for participating. One way of encouraging community participation would be to have the Municipalities give the communities the deeds to their land in exchange for adhering to urban-planning best-practice (see later in the report). Therefore, there would be a certain code of conduct and if the households participated in abiding by it, upholding it and monitoring it, then they would be rewarded. • Low interest and high power: These include traders. They should be kept satisfied, and their complaints should be addressed carefully, in order to secure their goodwill in times of need; and finally • Low interest and low power: these require smaller levels of effort. Their activity and potential should be monitored and brought on board whenever deemed necessary.

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• Traders • Coordinating Council for Disaster Management

HIGH • Technical Council for Disaster

Management (national, provincial

Æ and local level) • Municipal Council • Media • Community members • Community leaders POWER • Religious communities/leaders • FIPAG • EDM LOW • LOW HIGH INTEREST Æ

Figure 27: Influence map All key decision makers, and particularly the communities and their representatives, should be closely engaged in defining adaptation measures for mitigating urban vulnerability. Both municipalities should also be actively influenced in order to include some of the adaptation measures hereafter detailed in their urban development plans.

4.10.3. Synthesis As the influence map shows, there is a need for addressing each stakeholder differently. It is also important to apply suitable strategies at each stage of the project. The matrix below proposes varied ways on how each stakeholder may be included in the processes. (Table 8)

Activities

Stakeholder Mapping Vulnerability mapping Adaptation measures Urban identification of options Estimated costs Knowledge transfer Coordinating Council for Disaster Management C I I P P P I - Information sharing (one way flow) Technical Council for Disaster Management C C C P P E C - Consultation Municipality I C C E P E (two way flow) Traders I C I C P I P - Collaboration FIPAG I C P P C I (control over decision making) EDM I C P P C I E - Empowerment Religious communities and their leaders I C I C I I (more transfer of control) Community leaders C C E P E E Community members C C P E P I Media - I - I - E

Table 8: Stakeholders’ participation matrix

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4.11. CONCLUSIONS

The objective of this analysis was to gather information on the social, cultural and physical aspects of the four neighbourhoods and to gather the perceptions of the communities on which main environmental threats they face and what solutions exist to overcome these threats.

It appears that:

9 Communities are affected by the listed natural hazards, though not by their magnitudes but more by the lack of urban planning and mitigation mechanisms.

9 The communities are attracted to certain neighbourhoods due to their proximity to public services, such as schools and hospitals, and employment opportunities. Therefore, in order to lure populations to neighbourhoods that are less vulnerable to natural hazards, the Municipality could introduce these services in these neighbourhoods.

9 The responsibility for increasing overall resilience to natural hazards and for creating mechanisms to mitigate the effects of these threats, must lie in a mutual collaboration between the Municipal Government and the affected communities, with the understanding and support of Local Leaders. Hence, the communities must be active stakeholders in the choice and implementation of adaptation measures.

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5. Adaptation options

5.1. “DRIVERS” FOR SELECTING AND RANKING ADAPTATION MEASURES

5.1.1. Phenomenon “drivers”

Located along Inhambane Bay, the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane are faced by several natural hazards linked to the proximity of the Indian Ocean and to specific conditions of urbanization and landscapes (see Chapter 2). Table 9 summarizes the main hazard drivers for each neighbourhood.

Any adaptation options must thus: (i) Reduce the negative effects of floods on the affected population and assets using different actions that include the participation of the target groups themselves; and (ii) Prevent floods by setting up physical measures.

Flooding Coastal Soil Erosion Cliff (urban run-off, Flooding Erosion thalwegs) (marine) Chalambe 2 x x (Inhambane) (in depressions) Liberdade 3 x x x (Inhambane) (in depressions) Mazambanine x x x x (Maxixe) (thalwegs) Chambone 1 x x (Maxixe) (streets and tracks) Chambone 5 x x x (Maxixe) (streets and tracks) Chambone 6 x x x (Maxixe) (streets and tracks)

Table 9: Hazard identification for the pilot neighbourhoods

5.1.2. Socio-economic and participative “drivers”

The main risks perceived by the studied communities in both Inhambane and Maxixe, as found during the socio-economic survey and focus group discussions and presented in the socio-economic analysis chapter, concur for the most part with the physical

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findings introduced above. These risks are flooding, caused by intense rain or coastal flooding (referred to as high tides in the survey).

Flooding due to intense rain is common to all neighbourhoods. This was identified both through participatory community mapping exercises, conducted during the scoping phase of the study prior to the survey itself, as well as during the survey. All neighbourhoods agreed on this point, but Liberdade 3 in Inhambane also complained about the waste that is washed into their homes due to the run-off water.

The community members in Maxixe identified flooding as a risk because their neighbourhood is located at the bottom of slopes where rainwater run-off accumulates. This flooding is exacerbated by the lack of drainage systems for evacuating the run-off. The survey and focus group discussions also found that erosion in these neighbourhoods occurs as a result of intense rains. In this town only Mazambanine had households with experience of resettlement due to flooding. This is also the neighbourhood that suffers most from erosion both in yards and access ways.

The communities in Inhambane stated that flooding occurs mostly due to a lack of drainage systems. In both towns, community members engage in individual mitigation measures

Coastal flooding (high tides) occur mainly in Mazambanine (Maxixe) and Chalambe 2 (Inhambane), due to their location along the coastline and mangrove swamp. The surveyed households stated that this water invades their homes and yards.

In order to protect themselves, community members in both Inhambane and Maxixe have employed individual adaptation measures that are potentially damaging to social relations and local infrastructure. They build small mounds or more permanent concrete barriers around their homes to protect them against both rain run-off and coastal flooding. It has been pointed out in different focus group discussions that such individual adaptation measures can be prejudicial to the neighbours, because the water then inundates their homes.

Another individual adaptation measure that was identified primarily in the neighbourhoods in Maxixe, is the use of zinc roofs to protect households against flooding. However, this again causes the run-off water to flow into their neighbours’ houses causing inundation.

Observations made during the field work and discussions held with focus groups have shown additional risks to the environment, particular to Chalambe 2. This neighbourhood is located along a mangrove swamp and many of the households have gained ground from the sea by dumping waste, such as plastic bags and organic waste, in order to build houses. This is harmful to the environment because plastic bags are not bio-degradable and organic waste pollutes water that enters the mangrove swamp. In addition, this water remains stagnant, causing the waste to fester and damage the existent eco-systems.

Additionally, results both from focus-group discussions and the survey found the practice of open defecation to be another environmental threat to the mangrove

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swamp. This is harmful because it not only contaminates the water and affects wild life, but also because it is harmful to the humans residing around the mangrove swamp.

These socio-economic and participative “drivers” were thus used to produce the structural and non-structural adaptation measures presented below.

5.1.3. Stake holders “drivers”

Based on the socio-economic survey and the stakeholder analysis, it was concluded that most perceive the INGC and the Municipal Governments as the institutions responsible for providing relief to neighbourhoods in the event of a natural hazard, as in the case of flooding caused by intense rain or high tides. In addition, the Municipal Government is perceived as being responsible for resolving the urban-planning deficiencies in each of the neighbourhoods, due to the fact that some of the vulnerabilities identified are caused by a lack of urban planning. Aside from these two stakeholders, others are identified below that could be involved in relief actions, though they have not yet gained credibility as effective relief help.

The stakeholder analysis found that stakeholders with high power and high interest, such as the Coordinating Council for Disaster Management, the Technical Council for Disaster Management (national, provincial and local), and the Municipal Governments, should be in charge of coordinating and delegating the various physical and other measures that are proposed below in this Chapter. These stakeholders however, are often faced with financial limitations, which prevent them from carrying out the necessary structural actions that could prevent the identified risks.

Traders in both towns were identified as stakeholders with financial power, yet not necessarily interested in acting to prevent vulnerabilities that do not directly affect them. These stakeholders should be 'groomed' to take an interest in funding adaptation measures that neither communities nor official bodies are able to finance.

Community leaders and members, religious leaders and communities, and public services (FIPAG and EDM) were found to have low power but high interest in risks related to natural hazards. These stakeholders should be empowered to be more involved in the implementation of some of the measures that are presented later in this chapter, in particular the non-structural ones. In particular, community leaders and members could be involved in actions such as Community Awareness Programmes and Disaster Preparedness Committees. Involvement in activities such as these would allow these groups to be empowered through claiming responsibility for preventing further risks.

The stakeholder analysis also found stakeholders that presently have low power and low interest, namely the media. These stakeholders could be involved in notifying neighbourhood populations about impending natural disasters and also could be involved in the Community Awareness Campaigns. For these stakeholders to be able to act as opinion makers, they need to be empowered.

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5.2. ADAPTATION MEASURES

The following sections present the proposed adaptation options for the neighbourhoods of Chambone and Mazambanine in Maxixe, and Chalambe 2 and Liberdade 3 in Inhambane. The adaptation measures are categorized as structural measures, which involve infrastructural changes and construction in the affected areas, and non- structural measures that are a combination of social interventions and capacity- building initiatives and actions geared at both communities and official bodies. The costs of these adaptation measures are first presented in general below, and then in more detail by activity at the end of the chapter.

5.2.1. Adaptation measures for Maxixe

The dominant hazards in Maxixe are associated with storm-water run-off, the erosion of slopes, and small areas that are affected by coastal flooding. The effects caused by storm-water drainage are the flooding of homes (sometimes informal settlements) and roads, the erosion and degradation of roads, and gullying (sediment transport).

The structural measures proposed for Maxixe should be part of a comprehensive plan for storm-water drainage for the entire town. Such a plan should identify the sources of run-off and propose solutions for its control, taking into account future urbanization plans. The main structural adaptation options proposed for Maxixe are as follows:

• Reduce erosion along slopes and gullies (construction of sills and maintaining thalwegs).

• Drainage and crossings for roads (building lateral road drainage and large culverts along roads susceptible to inundation).

• Set up a storage basin upstream from the “zona da expansão” (including setting up a drainage system, re-establishing the natural flow of rainwater, and strengthen gutters and pipes)

• Develop local water collection and reservoir systems.

• Building ducts to the sea in urban areas or areas to be urbanized along the coast (the flow of rainwater has to be channelled through piped systems).

• Protection against coastal flooding however, a change in land use is highly recommended.

The non-structural measures proposed for Maxixe aim at reducing the vulnerability of the populations in affected neighbourhoods to natural hazards by means of a three- pronged approach. This should entail: (i) Setting up of early-warning systems for making the communities aware of impending hazards; (ii) Providing the Municipal Councils and relevant Provincial and Town Directorates with training, enabling them to revise the urban structure plans and to produce Detailed Urban Plans; and,

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(iii) Creating Community Awareness Committees and Disaster Preparedness Groups.

Thus, the combination of the structural and non-structural adaptation measures could reduce the vulnerability of the populations in the affected neighbourhoods, increase their global resilience and provide them with the tools to prevent and mitigate natural hazards. 5.2.1.1. Structural measures

Maxixe is mainly exposed to run-off from several upstream thalwegs that flow directly into town (Figure 28). The watersheds have modest surface areas (between 224 and 477 ha) and elongated forms (except watershed 100 that is more compact), with rather steep slopes (between 14 and 15 m/km). This configuration leads to flash floods during thunderstorms: • The thalweg from watershed 103 flows directly into the centre of Maxixe, and is channelled in its downstream portion by a paved road to the west. This road follows the ridgeline and then crosses the thalweg where the valley narrows and continues along it until reaching the town. • Thalwegs 105 and 106 are crossed by the national road EN1. • Thalweg 107, which drains into the “zona de expansão”, leads to the south of the hospital of Chicuque. • Thalweg 110 leads north of the hospital of Chicuque.

The priority actions from upstream to downstream should therefore be the following:

i. Slopes, thalwegs and upstream ravines: The proposed solution is to establish sills that ensure a step-by-step reduction in flow velocities, because run-off is concentrated in the thalwegs. This action will also help in lowering the rate of erosion of the thalweg. ii. Outlying upstream urban zones (or zones to be urbanized): Here, the general principle is based on the use of drainage in order to compensate for or (temporarily) hold the flows. iii. Roads: The solutions consist in drainage of the roadway (with roadside ditches and ponds), and in re-establishing natural flow under the road with a culvert (or large pipe) that allows discharging flow into the downstream natural thalweg. iv. Urban zones (or zones to be urbanized) by the sea: In these sectors, the flow should be channelled and the outlets to the sea should be constructed.

Maxixe Structural Measure 1 (MSM1) – High priority: Reduce erosion along slopes and gullies

The main work to be done on the thalwegs (ravine) is based on the construction of sills, using gabions or stone walls, at the bottom of the thalwegs. These structures reduce flow velocity and limit erosion of the ground. This work concerns the upper areas of watersheds 103, 105, 106, and 110. (Figure 28).

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Figure 28: Watersheds between Maxixe and Chicuque

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The sills that have to be developed every 500 m are shown on Figure 29. The number and location of these sills should be the object of further detailed studies of the shape and use of the thalweg bottoms. The basic principle is to construct, for example, a first series of five sills for each thalweg then, after observation of their behaviour over one or two hydrologic years, to add a second series of four sills interspersed with the original series, and so on.

Figure 29: Simplified layout for sills within watershed 103

It should be noted that this type of construction cannot be completed in watershed 107 which is largely occupied by the “zona de expansão”.

Preliminary provisions are 28 gabions of 2.4 mm wire (mesh 8 x 10 cm) 5 m long and 1.5 m high in series of five, placed in breaks of 500 m on top of Reno-type mattresses in thalwegs 103, 105, 106 and 110, for a total length of 14,000 metres.

Moreover, the maintenance of thalwegs (see description SEW1 in Appendix 5) has to ensure: • Restoring its full hydraulic efficiency, • Avoiding formation of log jams and overflow, • Cleaning them of any waste that might pollute the receiving water body.

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Maxixe Structural Measure 2 (MSM2) – High priority: Drainage and crossings for roads

National road EN1 is equipped with lateral road drainage and large culverts (Figure 30). The other roads and paths to Maxixe, the “zona de expansão”, and the hospital of Chicuque should also be equipped with lateral road drainage and culverts.

Drainage ditches should be 1 m wide and 3.5 to 4.5 m deep. The width should vary according to the protected base, using a geo-textile membrane with a 0.80 m grit layer on top. This should be planned for a length of at least 10 km.

The output of drainage water from the roadway should ideally be done within the same watershed, in the corresponding downstream thalweg.

In the past, the uncontrolled channelling of run-off from roads without drainage structures has led to the design of over-sized downhill outlets, in particular under the road from Maxixe to Chicuque (outlet 9), or, on the contrary, of under-sized and by- passed outlets.

The main culverts to design are located on maps in Appendices 6 and 7, and have the following characteristics:

Discharge Existing Run-off basin Discharge Thalweg n° Road Culvert n° 10 years culvert (ha) (100 years) (m3/s) WS 103 Paved road (west) 103 none 198 3.2 4.7 WS 105 Unpaved street 105a none 171 2.76 4.09 WS 105 Unpaved street 105b none 187 3.02 4.47 National road WS 105 105c point n°062 216 3.48 5.16 (EN1) WS 105 Coastal road 105d outlets 5d to 5f 240 3.87 5.73 National road WS106 106a point n°056 238.5 3.84 5.70 (EN1) WS 106 Unpaved street 106b none 335.5 5.40 8.02 WS 106 Coastal road 106c outlet 6 335.5 5.40 8.02

Table 10: Road culverts (existing or projected)

The culverts in watershed 107 should be designed with respect to the drainage of the “zona de expansão” upstream. Generally speaking, the channelling of storm-water from the “zona de expansão” to Maxixe along national road EN1 must be avoided. Instead, a channel along the road leading to the hospital in Chicuque, with partial diversions into the small coastal thalwegs, would allow spreading the water load over several outlets to the sea (outlets 7 to 9). This could be accompanied with a storage basin in order to limit peak flow from the “zona de expansão” before the downstream diversions.

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Figure 30: National road (EN1), south of Maxixe: drainage and culvert (lateral road drainage connected to double culvert)

Maxixe Structural Measure 3 (MSM3) - Medium Priority: Set up a storage basin upstream from the “zona da expansão”.

For the “zona da expansão”, a storage basin can be constructed immediately upstream of the place where the thalweg crosses the trail leading to the hospital of Chicuque (Figure 31, see description SEW3 in Appendix 5). The estimated capacity for return waters in 100 years for the study area is 5,000 to 10,000 m3 of water, depending on the space that will be freed for this purpose.

Maxixe Structural Measure 4 (MSM4) – Medium Priority: Set up a drainage system in residential sectors

A drainage system should be set up along the channels, by introducing dykes and basins for re-establishing the natural flow of rainwater, and, wherever necessary, strengthen it with gutters or enlarged pipes for allowing a better discharge of water upstream (see description SEW2 in Appendix 5). This mainly concerns the downstream part of the watersheds n°107 and 110 and corresponds to the “zona da expansão”. A preliminary provision of 6,500 linear metres is foreseen.

Maxixe Structural Measure 5 (MSM5) – Medium Priority: Develop local water collection and reservoir systems

Construct water-collection systems and water reservoirs for storing water (see descriptions MR1 and MR2 in Appendix 5) along the roads of Maxixe and Chicuque (Chambone neighbourhood 1 and 5). Such reservoirs should have a decantation basin

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for rainwater at the entrance of the reservoir or well, which could be 1 m wide and 3.5 to 4.5 m deep. The width would vary according to the protected base, using a geo- textile membrane on top of a 0.80 m grit layer. The water reservoir would reduce the volume of water being spilled on to nearby areas.

Figure 31: Watershed 107 – and storage basin location

Maxixe Structural Measure 6 (MSM6) - Medium Priority: Building ducts to the sea

In urban areas or areas to be urbanized along the coast, the flow of rainwater has to be channelled through piped systems and could include the construction of ducts to the sea. Rainwater could be directed with a recommended slope of 3% followed by lateral dykes. A provision for 13 ducts is made.

The measures described above, conducted in the upstream portion of the watersheds, can limit the size of ditches and outlets to the sea in this zone.

Maxixe Structural Measure 7 (MSM7) - Medium Priority: Protection against coastal flooding

Where residential or industrial land lies behind the shoreline, it is generally possible to justify maintaining the existing line. The protection against coastal flooding and erosion in Maxixe requires a plan for an area larger than the originally delimited study area. The exact plan layout for new dykes and rubble-mound breakwaters should be the subject of beach-process studies and computational and physical modelling. A solution

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consists in constructing conventional rubble-mound breakwaters (see description SP1 Appendix 5).

However, a change in land use is highly recommended by: • Allowing the land to return to its natural state or developing vegetable crops; • Constructing non-residential or non-permanent infrastructure (sports fields, non- permanent markets, etc.).

In any case, a surface-drainage system of ditches should be considered in order to ensure the drainage of run-off from residential areas situated behind it. 5.2.1.2. Non-structural measures

The non-structural adaptation measures proposed in this chapter do not directly prevent floods or erosion, but rather work as catalytic factors in the entire process for reducing the impact of floods and erosion on assets in the short- and long terms. The three measures below are all designated as high priority ones, but due to probable financial constraints, the second measure could be seen as a medium-level priority

Maxixe Non-Structural Measure 1 (MNST1) – Set up an early-warning system for natural hazards (High Priority)

In all neighbourhoods, a formal warning system could be set up that would warn the populations of impending rains or cyclones that could cause flooding. This would allow for the community members to be better prepared in the event of floods. This early- warning system would be based on a joint effort carried out by the INGC, the National Institute for Meteorology, Media Representatives, Community Leaders and the Disaster Preparedness Groups (see more details in the third adaptation measure, below). This system would involve warning the population with megaphones in the neighbourhoods and via radio transmissions.

Maxixe Non-Structural Measure 2 (MNST2) – Improve urban-planning and land- use schemes (Medium Priority)

The results of this study indicated that many of the problems identified in the neighbourhoods are directly related to deficiencies in urban planning and land use. This in turn warrants the inclusion of this non-structural adaptation measure. Thus, the objective of this measure is, in the long run, to create a context in which urbanization and land-use plans contribute to the prevention and reduction of the effects of natural hazards.

This measure has three components: (i) Training of relevant staff in the Municipal Councils on specific issues related to urban planning; (ii) Revision and creation of three different types of urban plans that target the structural measures presented above; and, (iii) Creation of structures to monitor the implementation of these plans.

The first component involves, as stated above, providing two separate training sessions for the staff of the Planning and Urbanization departments in the Municipal Council of Maxixe. One of the sessions would be on how to revise the Urbanization and

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Urban Structure Plans. The training should focus on how to include measures for mitigating the effects of natural hazards in urbanization and urban-structure plans.

They should also be trained in the production and implementation of Detailed Urban Plans. These are plans on a larger scale than urban-structure plans and are generally applied to priority areas or sensitive areas from the point of view of urban planning. They are also applied to urban-expansion areas, urban-requalification areas, safeguarded historic areas, or other areas with special characteristics. This plan defines in detail: • The type of occupation that should occur in specific urban areas (i.e. residential, commercial, recreational, etc.); and, • Establishes the design of urban space, including land use and general construction regulations, the tracing of traffic routes, and the characteristics of infrastructure and service networks.

The second component of this adaptation measure involves the revision of both the Urbanization Plan and the Urban Structure Plan of Maxixe.

Currently, the Urban Structure Plan of Maxixe is the general instrument for territorial management at the municipal level. It defines the spatial organization of the entire town of Maxixe and the parameters and norms for use by the different sections of the Municipality. This organization should bear in mind the actual occupation of these spaces, the infrastructure and the existent social infrastructure12. This plan should be revised to include the categorization and management of areas that are prone to flooding and erosion. These areas should be attributed specific uses, such as parks and recreational areas. An example of this would be to turn an area that is consistently flooded into a natural lake or pond. This would implicitly make it an area that could not become a residential zone.

The Urbanization Plan for Maxixe is a more specific instrument for territorial management at the municipal level. It establishes the structure and qualification of the urban territory, while bearing in mind the balance between the different uses and functions of urban space. In sum, this plan should define the transport, communication, energy and sanitation networks and social apparatus. It should also pay special attention to the zones that are prone to spontaneous occupation and create socially relevant spatial plans.

The Urbanization Plan for Maxixe is currently incomplete and does not include all of the neighbourhoods. The urbanization plans should aim at re-organizing areas of spontaneous and disordered occupation. In addition, they should include a regulation on the “soil absorption index”, which states that only 1/3 of a plot of land should be occupied so that rainwater can drain naturally through the soil, in the absence of proper drainage systems. This would alleviate some of problems caused by the lack of drainage systems.

12 Social infrastructure includes schools, hospitals, etc.

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The Urbanization Plan for Maxixe should also include maps on Conditioning Factors for Urban Land Use. These maps identify the different zones in an urban area according to which zones can house infrastructures, which zones have fragile eco-systems and have to protected, etc.

In addition, a Detailed Urban Plan would be created, identifying the areas exposed to flooding, erosion, and those with fragile ecosystems that make the development of human settlements unsuitable. In this plan, the hazard-prone areas that were identified would be categorized according to three hazard levels: low, medium and high. Such plans could be formulated for the sensitive and/or vulnerable areas in Mazambanine and Chambone.

Finally, structures for monitoring the effective implementation of the three plans mentioned above should be created. These structures would include teams that could regularly visit the areas and promote sustainable land-use practice among the population. Community leaders should be strongly involved in this monitoring activity.

Maxixe Non-Structural Measure 3 (MNST3) – Creation of Community Awareness Committees and Disaster Preparedness Groups (High Priority)

This measure proposes the creation of two community-led groups, the Community Awareness Committees that disseminate information on urban planning, and the Disaster Preparedness Groups that train the community in how to reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and how to proceed in the event of one.

There is a need for disseminating socio-economic and urban-planning best-practices to the communities, so as to discourage human settlements in areas prone to natural hazards, as well as to prevent actions that may negatively impact such areas. This should be done through the creation of Community Awareness Groups that are led by the community leaders and other influential people in the neighbourhoods. These groups would interface with the Municipal Council. Thus, the Municipal Council would train the community leaders in urban-planning best-practices and also in how to monitor activities within the neighbourhood for ensuring that these practices are followed. Members of the groups should include the leaders of the quarters, so that best-practices are better reproduced and disseminated across the neighbourhoods.

Some important best-practices include the discouraging of individual adaptation measures, such as construction of ditches or barriers to direct run-off water away from homes. Instead, community-built drainage ditches should be constructed as a group action and in such a way as to benefit the entire neighbourhood and not just some houses.

Other best-practices could include promoting the use of gutters on zinc roofs that allow the rainwater to be collected in cisterns, thus preventing the flooding of neighbouring yards which was common in the neighbourhoods in Maxixe. The water collected in the cistern could also be an alternative source of water as many households still use either public standpipes or wells. Thus, the communities could be made aware of the benefits of the water collected in a cistern, such as for washing clothes and household items, or cleaning of the home. To bring these committees to fruition, there should be active

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consultation with the communities about the harmful adaptation measures that they currently employ. Then, using participatory methods, the urban-planning best-practices should be disseminated amongst the communities.

The Disaster Preparedness Groups are already part of INGC’s modus operandi in disaster management, but should be actively pursued in Maxixe. The main objective of these committees is to transfer a significant part of the responsibility in disaster management to the communities. This responsibility consists in organizing the community into networks that would be a part of the early-warning system mentioned above and help disseminate information on impending natural hazards. In addition, these networks would provide initial assistance to the affected people when natural disasters affect an area. Awareness campaigns should also include training of the population of the affected Neighbourhoods on mechanisms for reducing their vulnerability to natural hazards and on the procedures they should follow in the event of a natural hazard. This would strengthen the community’s response and resilience to natural hazards.

5.2.1.3. Cost for implementing adaptation measure in Maxixe

Tables 11 and 12 below indicate the estimated costs of implementation of structural and non-structural measures. The total estimated cost of structural measures is US$3,335,500.00 equivalent, and the cost of non-structural measures is US$52,000.00 equivalent (or a total of US$3,387,500.00 equivalent). Note that these costs do not include associated social and environmental safeguard and detailed engineering design studies, which will need to be carried out and approved prior to implementation (see Chapter 6).

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Risk # Neighbourhood Adaptation Measure Priority Cost USD Erosion MSM1 Chambone Reduce erosion along slopes High 78,400.00 and gullies Flooding MSM2 Chambone Drainage and crossings for High 1,007,500.00 roads

MSM3 Set up a storage basin upstream Medium 150,000.00 from the “zona de expansão”

MSM4 Set up drainage system in High 1,500,000.00 residential sectors

MSM5 Develop local water collection 13 Medium Varies and water reservoir systems MSM6 Building of ducts to the seas High 500,000.00 subtotal 3,157,500.00 Coastal MSM7 Mazambanine Protection against coastal Low 100,000.00 Flooding flooding TOTAL 3,335,500.00

Table 11: Structural Measures cost - MAXIXE

Risk # Neighbourhood Adaptation Measure Priority Cost USD

Flooding MNST1 Institute Early Warning System High 5,000.0014 and for Natural Hazards erosion Chambone and MNST2 Improve Urban Planning Mazambanine Medium 41,000.0015 Schemes and Land Use

MNST3 Creation of Community Awareness Committees and High 6,000.0016 Disaster Preparedness Groups TOTAL 52,000.00

Table 12: Non-Structural Measures cost – MAXIXE

13 This measure is to be adopted by individuals (private or public). It is thus impossible to estimate a cost, given that it is unknown how many people will adopt this measure, nor how big the infrastructures will be. 14 This cost estimates the purchase of megaphones to disseminate information through the neighbourhoods by the Disaster Preparedness groups and also includes dissemination through radio transmissions. 15 This estimated cost includes the hiring of a consultant to conduct the trainings and provide assistance in revising and creating urban plans. 16 This estimated cost includes training materials, conference room and food and beverages during the training, and contingency costs for the committees and groups.

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5.2.2. Adaptation measures for Inhambane

The dominant hazards in Inhambane are associated with coastal flooding (Chalambe 2), erosion of the shoreline (cliffs) and many areas where storm-water-drainage fails (Liberdade 3). Contrary to Maxixe, Inhambane is not affected by any significant watershed generating a potential hazard related to run-off.

It must be stressed here that some adaptation measures, such as controlling rainwater through the elimination of depressions and by building coastline protection infrastructures, were discarded.

To begin with, there are measures that, without being costly, can represent a danger to the environment. There are other measures that could demand a radical change on the part of both local authorities and resident communities. The sustainability of the measures should be considered, taking into account the costs that are involved and their implementation efficiency in the short-, medium- and long terms. Some adaptation measures that were discarded due to various constraints include:

• Actions that include extensive engagement by the communities, but that are financially or environmentally not sustainable. A clear example is the continuous dumping of solid waste including huge quantities of plastic, resulting in marine pollution.

• Encouraging intensive occupation of coastal areas for housing purposes, especially for people with few financial resources, harms the coastal marine ecosystem.

• Local solutions that incorporate unconventional measures, such as using debris and garbage for constructing embankments, are not recommended as they especially enhance environmental pollution.

• Coastline protection is particularly expensive and is only justifiable in the case of protecting strategic property, in the absence of other development alternatives. An intervention of this magnitude would require at least 200,000 m3 of sand.

5.2.2.1. Structural measures

Inhambane/Liberdade 3 Structural Measure 1 (ISM1) – High Priority: Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depressions

In this neighbourhood, few areas are situated in depression zones and thus subject to the accumulation of rainwater run-off from neighbouring watersheds, and groundwater drainage.

Two wetlands are affected by the flooding hazard (Figure 15)

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• Zone A is crossed by the “Avenida de Maguiguana”, which remains above water even with a water level of 3.6 m; • Zone B is a large wetland that is connected directly to the sea, and the “Avenida de Maguiguana” is inundated by the current 100-year return-period extreme sea water level of 2.6 m.

Other sectors on the edge of the “Jangamo road” (extension of the “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane”) have inadequate run-off drainage. They cover quarteirão n°4 to the northeast, quarteirão n°3 to the southeast and quarteirão n°2 to the southwest. a. Zone A

Note that this zone can be the drainage outlet or gravitational storm-water drainage of a small depression to the north (I1 situated between the “Rua 20 Setembro” and the old railroad tracks).

The priority actions should be the following: • The treatment of rainwater involves restoring the flow from Liberdade to the sea, in reconnecting the depressions by gravity. This restoration of flow to the sea can be done via pipes (Φ200 to Φ400, relatively low flow). Non-return valves should be added at the outlet to the sea. Monitoring and maintenance of the valves are required. • Pumping solutions should be considered as a last resort and should be supported by a permanent technical staff (local authority). • In Zone I1: ƒ Establishment of a pump will allow evacuating the surplus water and the corresponding discharge downstream. It requires the use of mobile pipes about 300 m long, in the case of the discharge to the south (wetland situated in quarteirão n°4). • In Zone I2 between “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane” and the “Rua 20 Setembro”: ƒ Gravity drainage (ditch and flume under the “Avenida Mondlane”) is proposed. It would run for a length of about 120 m. • In Zone I3: the deepest part (elevation below 3.5 or 4 m) of Zone l3, situated in quarteirão n°4, should be kept free of buildings and construction. At present, this part is a wetland zone that naturally receives run-off from the surrounding watersheds and groundwater drainage. To avoid filling the depression, an artificial drainage should be put in place by: ƒ A ditch or buried pipeline along “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane” in the direction of the proposed discharge area for Zone l2 with a length of about 200 to 230 m; ƒ Or a buried pipeline perpendicular to “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane”, in the direction of the sea, with a length of about 180 to 200 m. b. Zone B

Zone B (Figure 15) covers quarteirão n°3 to the east of “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane” (road to Jangamo) and neighbourhood n°2 to the west. • The drainage of neighbourhood n°3 is interrupted by the road.

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• The drainage of neighbourhood n°2 is difficult, due to the irregular topography, the absence of drainage ditches and the existence of small dykes along the perimeter of the wetland that prevent flow to the sea.

The priority actions should be the following: • A pipe should be placed under the road and a ditch dug through neighbourhood n°2 for flow to reach the wetland. • For this purpose, an embankment of 1-1.5 m height and spanning about 1 ha (10,000 to 15,000 m3) can be completed, ensuring that the surface has a steady slope toward the sea.

Inhambane/Liberdade 3 Structural Measure 2 (ISM2) – Medium Priority: Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depression. a. Zone A

These depression areas may not be maintained in good condition. Two options are possible: • Changing land use into open green space of non-vulnerable facilities (sports fields, parks); • Infilling the land up to a minimal level of 3.6 m (7.5 m for Sector I1). Feasibility studies suggest heavier management strategies, including the partial infilling of zones I1, I2 and I3, requiring nearly 200,000 m3 to make the depression zones behind “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane” viable in a definitive fashion, and providing conventional gravity drainage for a total surface area of 8 ha. Such heavy operations require a complete reorganization of the current land use and should be part of a comprehensive and sustainable urbanization plan. b. Zone B

The creation of a dyke would always carry with it the risk of failure.

The structural measure should be the following: • The land below 2.6 m elevation should remain free of buildings. c. Other sectors

In the medium term, build a drainage system between “Rua 20 de Setembro” and the old railway that is 4 to 5 m deep passing through “Eduardo Mondlane” towards the sea. Provision for 600 linear metres is made.

Inhambane/Chalambe 2 Structural Measure 3 (ISM3) – Medium Priority: Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depressions

The neighbourhood of Chalambe has an irregular topography. Numerous “troughs” were inundated by the arrival and stagnation of run-off water that cannot find an outlet to the sea. The surface of each of these zones is about 2,500 m², and the average depth is around 1 m. They are situated:

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• North of “Avenida do Trabalho” (paved), south of “Rua Patricio Lumumba” (unpaved) and west of the “Rua Ngungunhane” (unpaved); • South of “Avenida do Trabalho” (paved) and north of “Avenida Moçambique” (unpaved).

These zones are not directly threatened by coastal flooding because they are separated from the low-lying coastal areas by mounds (seemingly natural topography).

Reducing the flood risk in these zones could be achieved by constructing an embankment (average height 1 m) and digging ditches along the existing road and street networks. The volume of the embankments is estimated to be approximately 5,000 m3 and the total length of the drains is on the order of 600 metres.

Inhambane/Chalambe 2 Structural Measure 4 (ISM4) – Medium Priority: Ensure drainage in low-lying zones along the coast

Where residential or industrial land lies behind the shoreline, it is generally possible to justify maintaining the existing line. The protection against coastal flooding and erosion in Inhambane requires a plan covering an area larger than the originally delimited study area. The exact plan layout for new dykes and rubble-mound breakwaters should be the subject of beach-process studies and computational and physical modelling.

A change in land use is highly recommended by: • Allowing the land to return to its natural state or developing the growing of vegetable crops; • Constructing non-residential or non-permanent infrastructure (sports fields, non- permanent markets, etc.).

In any case, a surface drainage system of ditches should be considered in order to ensure the drainage of run-off from residential areas situated behind it. 5.2.2.2. Non-structural measures

Inhambane Non-Structural Measure 1 (INST1) – Institute an early-warning system for natural hazards

This measure is similar to the Measure 1 for Maxixe

Inhambane Non-Structural Measure 2 (INST2) – Improve urban-planning and land-use schemes

Measure 2 is also similar to the Measure 2 for Maxixe. However, it includes a 4th component: Demarcate the areas of risk in Chalambe 2 that should not be occupied. A section of Chalambe 2, located along the coast and the mangrove swamp, should be clearly demarcated with a fence to prohibit spontaneous occupation. This would prevent houses from being erected in areas affected by coastal flooding and would protect the mangrove swamp from environmental degradation due to pollution.

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Inhambane Non-Structural Measure 3 (INST3) – Creation of Community Awareness Campaigns and Disaster Preparedness Groups

This measure is similar to the Measure 3 for Maxixe. In addition, in Chalambe 2, the building of homes on the mangrove swamp or building embankments with residual material waste that pollutes the ocean would be discouraged, as well as open defecation, as it is harmful to the environment. Instead, the use of traditional latrines would be promoted and awareness would be created about where to construct homes.

5.2.2.3. Cost for implementing adaptation measures in Inhambane

Table 13 and Table 14 below indicate the estimated costs of implementation of structural and non-structural measures for Inhambane. The total estimated cost of structural measures is US$2,890,900.00 equivalent, and the cost of non-structural measures is US$52,000.00 equivalent (or a total of US$2,942,900.00 equivalent). Similar to Maxixe, these costs do not include associated social and environmental safeguards and detailed engineering design studies, which will need to be carried out and approved prior to implementation (see Chapter 6).

Risk # Neighbourhood Adaptation Measure Priority Cost USD Flooding ISM1 Liberdade 3 Short-term reduction of rainwater High 90,000.00 accumulation in existing depressions ISM2 Medium-term reduction of Medium 1,290,900.00 rainwater accumulation in existing depressions subtotal 1,380,900.00 ISM3 Chalambe 2 Medium-term reduction of Medium 1,500,000.00 rainwater accumulation in existing depressions ISM4 Chalambe 2 Medium term: ensure drainage in Medium 10,000 low-lying zones along the coast subtotal 1,510,000.00 TOTAL 2,890,900.00

Table 13: Structural measures cost – Inhambane

In Inhambane, an overall defence plan against the sea for the whole north of the peninsula (neighbourhoods not selected in this study) is required, due to seawater circulation between neighbourhoods beyond 2.6 m (Figure 32). A solution consists in constructing conventional rubble-mound breakwater (see SP1, Appendix 5).

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Risk # Neighbourhood Adaptation Measure Priority Cost USD

Flooding INST1 Institute early-warning system of High 5,000.0017 natural hazards Liberdade 3 INST2 Improve urban-planning and land-use 41,000.00 Medium and Chalambe 2 schemes 18

INST3 Creation of Community Awareness Committees and Disaster High 6,000.0019 Preparedness Groups TOTAL 52,000.00

Table 14: Non-structural measures cost - Inhambane

17 This cost estimates the purchase of megaphones to disseminate information through the neighbourhoods through the Disaster Preparadness Groups and also includes dissemination through radio transmissions. 18 This estimated cost includes the hiring of a consultant to conduct the training and provide assistance in revising and creating urban plans. 19 This estimated cost includes training materials, conference room, and food and beverages during the training as well as contingency costs for the committees and groups.

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Figure 32: The unfavourable topography of Inhambane for shoreline management facing sea-level rise and coastal flooding

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5.2.3. Stakeholder role and interface for implementing various priorities in adaptation measures

The specific responsibilities of each stakeholder are presented below and the general mitigation measures refer to both towns. Eventually, they will be reflected not only in the neighbourhoods targeted in this study, but also in residential units with similar problems located in the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe.

Municipality: 9 The Municipality should assume a primordial role in Land-Use Planning Management (managing the occupation of urban land). Such control could be done with the participation of the inhabitants of the exposed areas themselves: 9 Formulate Urbanization Plans and Detailed Urban Plans, aiming at re- organizing areas of spontaneous and disordered occupation; 9 Include maps on Conditioning Factors for Urban Land-Use Planning in the different territorial urban-planning instruments (Structural Plans, Urbanization Plans and Detailed Urban Plans), identifying areas exposed to flooding, erosion and others with fragile ecosystems, which make human settlement unsuitable; 9 Include measures to be adopted for developing human settlements in areas prone to flooding, erosion and cyclones in the Urbanization Land-Use Plans, particularly in their regulations. Such measures should indicate soil- occupation indexes in addition to absorption indexes; 9 Demarcate the land in Chalambe 2 located along the coast to prevent future spontaneous occupation and protect houses from coastal flooding; 9 Identify new areas for the expansion of housing.

9 The Municipality’s leadership in rehabilitating or constructing infrastructure included in the Municipality’s urbanization plans should provide for the inclusion of areas exposed to flooding and erosion, and as such should: 9 Establish programs for identifying critical areas within a global context of the town; 9 Develop programs for opening drainage ditches and other systems to control rainwater, taking into account community participation.

9 Train community leaders in urban best-practices and in participative dissemination mechanisms for the Community Awareness committees.

INGC should be responsible for the creation of an early-warning system for natural disasters, which would include cooperation with the media and the meteorological institute for disseminating information on impending natural hazards. They should also be involved in training local leaders on the creation and management of community Disaster Preparedness Groups, which would include: 9 Short-term mechanisms for reducing community vulnerability to natural hazards; and, 9 Procedures for the community to follow in the event of a natural hazard.

Local Leaders including Neighbourhood Secretaries, Heads of Quarters and 10 heads of family: their role during the period prior to and during the occurrence of events, is

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essential, particularly for guiding the first responses to natural disasters. Such coordination could aim at: 9 Identifying exposed areas prior to the occurrence of events; 9 Conduct a census of families at risk; 9 Monitor the implementation of planned mitigation measures for specific areas; 9 Lead and reproduce the community awareness committees and disaster preparedness groups.

State representatives should be responsible for coordinating actions to mitigate the impact of natural disasters, with the INGC providing methodological and logistical guidance. The responses could include: 9 Conducting constant awareness-raising actions to discourage the occupation of exposed areas; 9 Hold health-education actions for improving the response in case of floods;

Community members should be empowered to fully and actively participate in the planning, design and implementation of the adaptation measures. They should be made aware that their participation is the backbone for the success of any adaptation measure. In addition, they are the most affected by natural hazards, so they stand to gain the most from any intervention. Community participation should include: 9 Active consultation and participation in the proposed selection and detailed design of the adaptation option affecting their community; 9 Participation in Community Awareness Committees related to the dissemination and implementation of urban-planning best-practices; 9 Participation in Disaster Preparedness Groups by assisting in the prevention and reduction of impacts of natural disasters; 9 Provision of resources such as human, financial or natural resources in any activity related to prevention or reduction of impacts of natural disasters; 9 Participation in public consultations regarding urbanization and disaster management; 9 Adoption of safer construction technologies that will best help reducing vulnerability; 9 Cooperation with authorities and other community members in concrete interventions that may reduce their own and other's vulnerability; 9 Avoiding construction in major areas at risk;

Media representatives: 9 Cooperate with State, Municipality and Local Representatives for disseminating natural-disaster preventive measure messages; 9 Release early-warning messages on natural disasters; 9 Participate in the production and dissemination of best-practice messages regarding urban settlement and natural-disaster prevention. As mentioned above, community groups that focus on best-practices will be created,

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5.2.4. Further actions required for implementing the proposed adaptation measures for Inhambane and Maxixe

The listing of adaptation measures presented above for physical and non-physical interventions was developed by the various stakeholders in close consultation with the study team. It represents an initial stage of defining the interventions required to build resilience to natural hazards. To get to the final stage and subsequent implementation, a series of refinement actions are required. These include, but are not limited to:

ƒ Additional consultation with relevant stakeholders, mainly community members and their representatives, and determination of their roles and responsibilities including levels of involvement in different aspects of the process (e.g. planning, labour, funding, in-kind contributions, etc.);

ƒ Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies including environmental and socio-economic assessments (see Safeguard Measures, below), and formulation of final design and detailed costing as well as final determination of sources of financial resources required for implementing the development work;

ƒ Study to determine the groundwater level and location of flood basins, if they exist, in the neighbourhoods of Chalambe 2 and Liberdade 3 for Inhambane and Mazambanine and Chambone for Maxixe, as a precursor to the formulation of the Detailed Urban Plan.

ƒ Mobilization and implementation of the adaptation measures; and,

ƒ Monitoring and evaluation and introduction of corrective measures where required, including development of “lessons learned” and re-planning.

5.3. GLOBAL COST OF ADAPTATION MEASURES The objective of this task is to produce a proposal with cost components that are as detailed as possible and which will allow INGC to secure the funds for investment for the Adaptation Options. The cost estimates cover five categories: special infrastructure components, safeguards planning and implementation, monitoring and evaluation, contingencies, and management implementation costs. Recognizing the weak financial situation of the various institutions involved in natural disaster mitigation in the two municipalities studied, in particular with regard to financial resources allocated to the component of natural disaster management, further efforts should be undertaken with the aim of raising funds. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that one should gradually include the suggested actions and the financial-planning process in their plans. Initially, in the absence of external resources, such actions could be supported by current budgets. The tables below present the estimated costs for the adaptation measures proposed for each city; these costs are categorized by the adaptation measures that are of high, medium or low priority. The global estimated cost for the proposed adaptations measures for Inhambane is US$$2,942,900.00 and for Maxixe, they are US$ 3,387,500.00. The estimated cost for implementation and management of the measures is US$184,924.00 and for possible additional studies it is US$450,000.00.

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Area of Total Cost Responsibility for N/O Adaptation Measure Quantity Unit Unit cost USD Priority intervention USD implementation

Reduce erosion along slopes and gullies Set up sills (w ire 2.4 mm, 8X10 cm mesh) that is 5 m long MSM1 and 1.5 m tall in series of five along 500-m breaks on top of Chambone 28 One 2,800.00 78,400.00 Municipal Council High Reno-type mattresses (on thalw egs 103,105,106 and 110) for a total length of 14,000 metres.

Drainage and crossings for roads

MSM2 Building of drainage ditches. 6,500 Metres 150 975,000.00 Municipal Council High Chambone Construction of gutters 13 One 2,500.00 32,500.00 Municipal Council High

Set up a drainage system in residential sectors Building of drainage ditches along the roads in Maxixe and MSM4 Chicuque and on the w ay to the hospital, w hich could be 1 Chambone m w ide and 3.5 to 4.5 m deep. The w idth w ould vary 10,000 Linear metres 150 1,500,000.00 Municipal Council High according to the protected base using a geo-textile membrane w ith a layer on top of the grit w ith 0.80 cm. M SM 6 Building ducts to the sea

Chambone Building piped systems and ducts construction to the sea. 2 km 250,000.00 500,000.00 Municipal Council High

MNST1 Institute Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazards

Mazambanine and Institute early-w arning systems for natural hazards (*) 1 One 5,000.00 5,000.00 Municipal Council High Chambone

MNST3 Creation of Community Awareness Committees and Disaster Preparedness Groups

Mazambanine and Creation of Community Aw areness Committee and training 2 Campaign 1,500.00 3,000.00 Municipal Council High Chambone Disaster Preparedness Groups 2 Un 1,500.00 3,000.00 INGC High TOTAL 3,096,900.00 High Table 15: Estimated costs for high priority measures for the town of Maxixe

(*)This costs estimates the purchase of megaphones and radio transmission to disseminate information.

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Area of Total Cost Responsibility for N/O Adaptation Measure Quantity Unit Unit cost USD Priority intervention USD implementation

Set up a storage basin upstream from the “zona de expansão”

MSM3 Zona de Building of a temporary barrier basin w ith 5,000 to10,000 m3 1One 150,000.00 Municipal Council Medium Expansão of rainw aters and respective control mechanisms.

Develop local water collection and water reservoir systems

Building of a collection system and reservoirs to store w ater MSM5 Chambone and from the construction sites (houses and socio-economic Varies (*) N/A N/A N/A Individuals Medium Mazambanine infrastructures) Chambone neighbourhood 1 and 5.

MNST2 Creation of Community Awareness Committees and Disaster Preparedness Groups

Training course on the production of Critical and Sensitive 1 course 3,000.00 3,000.00 Municipal Council Medium Areas Plans i Department of Training course on norms for road design and respective Urban Planning in 1 course 3,000.00 3,000.00 Municipal Council Medium rainw ater drainage w orks in sensitive areas. the Municipal Council of Maxixe Revision of Urbanization Plan 1 Revised Plan 10,000.00 10,000.00 Municipal Council Medium and other relevant government Revision of Urban Structure Plan 1 Revised Plan 10,000.00 10,000.00 Municipal Council Medium bodies Critical and Sensitive Areas Plan for the neighbourhood of Critical and 1 15,000.00 15,000.00 Municipal Council Medium Mazambanine (**) Sensitive Areas TOTAL (without MSM5) 191,000.00 Medium Table 16: Estimated costs for medium priority measures for the town of Maxixe

(*) This is a measure to be adopted by individuals (private or public). Therefore, it is not possible to estimate a cost given that we do not know how many people will adopt this measure, nor how big the infrastrcutures are.

(**)This costs includes a consultant that would provide assistance and conducting a study to verify the ground water level and identify the location of the flood basin.

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Responsibilit Area of Total Cost y for N/O Adaptation Measure Quantity Unit Unit cos t USD Priority intervention USD implementati on MSM7 Protection against coastal flooding Construct an embankment w ith gravel in an area of 5 ha Municipal Maz ambanine 20,000 m² 50 100,000.00 Low inside of Mazambanine Council TOTAL 100,000.00 Low Table 17: Estimated costs for low priority measures for the town of Maxixe

Area of Total Cost Responsible for N/O Adaptation Measure Quantity Unit Unit Cost Priority intervention USD implementation ISM 1 Reduction of rainwater accumulation in existing depressions

Liberdade 3 Build a drainage system betw een Rua 20 de Setembro and the old railw ay that is 4 to 5 m 600 Metres 150 90,000.00 Municipal Council High deep passing through Eduardo Mondlane tow ards the sea.

INST1 Institute early-warning systems for natural hazards Chalambe 2 and Institute early-w arning systems for natural hazards (*) 5,000.00 5,000.00 Municipal Council High Liberdade 3 1Un INST3 Institute early-warning systems for natural hazards Chalambe 2 and Creation of Community Aw areness Committee and training Campaign 1,500.00 3,000.00 Municipal Council High Liberdade 3 2 Disaster Preparedness Groups 2 Un 1,500.00 3,000.00 INGC High TOTAL 101,000.00 High Table 18: Estimated costs for high priority measures for the town of Inhambane

(*)This costs estimates the purchase of megaphones and radio transmission to disseminate information.

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Area of Total Cost Responsible for N/O Adaptation Measure Quantity Unit Unit Cost Priority intervention USD implementation

ISM 2 Reduction of rainwater accumulation in existing depressions Construct an 1-m embankment of gravel on a surface of 2,500 m2 in a marked area that is bordered to the north by Av. Do Trabalho and to the south by Av. Patrice Lumumba and 5,000 m3 30 150,000.00 Municipal Council Medium Moç ambique. Building of a drainage system along the embankment bordered to the north by Av. Do 0.6 km 150 900 Municipal Council Trabalho and to the south by Av. Patrice Lumumba and Moçambique. Construct an embankment at the Q2 for the passing of drainage pipes. 15,000 m3 30 450,000.00 Municipal Council

Construct a gravel embankment in an area of 8 ha behind Av. Eduardo Mondlane. 200,000 m3 30 600,000.00 Municipal Council Build a drainage system along the dumping area, w hich is bordered to the north by Av. 600 ml 150 90,000.00 Municipal Council do Trabalho and to the south by Patrice Lumumba and Moçambique.

ISM 3 Reduction of rainwater accumulation in existing depressions Construct an embankment (average height 1 m) and surface drainage ditches along the 5,000 m3 30 150,000.00 Municipal Council Medium existing road and street netw orks. The total length of the drains is about 600 m

ISM 4 Ensure drainage in low-lying zones along the coast The communities could participate in the construction of dykes using environmentally Varies N/A Community friendly materials. The areas of extreme risk could be visibly demarcated 2,000 Linear metres 50 10,000.00 Municipal Council Medium INST2 Improve urban-planning and land-use schemes

Department of Training course on the production of Critical and Sensitive Areas Plans i 1 course 3,000.00 3,000.00 Municipal Council Urban Planning in Training course on norms for road design and respective rainw ater drainage w orks in 1 course 3,000.00 3,000.00 Municipal Council Medium the Municipal sensitive areas. Council of Inhambane and Revision of Urbanization Plan 1 Revised Plan 10,000.00 10,000.00 Municipal Council other relevant Revision of Urban Structure Plan 1 Revised Plan 10,000.00 10,000.00 Municipal Council government Critical and bodies Critical and Sensitive Areas Plan for the neighbourhood of Chalambe 2 (*) 1 15,000.00 15,000.00 Municipal Council Sensitive 1,491,900.00 Medium TOTAL Table 19: Estimated costs for medium priority measures for the town of Inhambane

(*)This costs includes a consultant that would provide assistance and conducting a study to verify the ground water level and identify the location of the flood basin.

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Management Costs COST USD Monitoring and Evaluation Costs (1%) 63,308.00 Implementation and Management Costs (3%) 189,924.00 Contingency Costs (10%) 633,080.00

Possible Additional Studies COST USD Preparation of Environmental and Social Management 20,000.00 Framework and Plan Preparation of detailed Environmental Assessments of 200,000.00 Activities Preparation of a Social Assessment 50,000.00 Preparation of a Resettlement Policy Framework 30,000.00 Resettlement Action Plans 150,000.00

Table 20: Additional Costs

The table (Table 20) refers to: 9 - the estimated costs to monitor, evaluate, implement and manage the adaptation measures proposed above. In addition, a 10% surcharge is proposed for contingency costs. 9 - the estimated costs of possible additional studies that would have to be conducted if certain safeguard measures are triggered.

Note: Not included in the estimates above are the costs of any potential resettlement or involuntary land acquisition which should be determined by specific Resettlement Action Plans, and follow Government and World Bank standard guidelines.

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6. Safeguard Measures

The following general and specific physical adaptation measures have been identified as relevant for both Maxixe and Inhambane

Maxixe ƒ Reduce erosion along slopes and gullies - Set up sills (wire 2.4 mm, 8X10 cm mesh) that are 5 m long and 1.5 m tall as series of five in 500 m breaks on top of Reno-type mattresses (on thalwegs 103,105,106 and 110) for a total length of 14,000 metres. ƒ Drainage and crossings for roads - Digging of drainage ditches; construction of gutters. ƒ Set up a storage basin upstream from the “zona de expansão” - Build a collection system and reservoirs to store water from the construction sites (houses and socio-economic infrastructure) in Chambone neighbourhoods 1 and 5; building of a temporary barrier basin with a capacity of 5,000 to10,000 m3 of rainwater and respective control mechanisms. ƒ Set up a drainage system in residential sectors - Dig drainage ditches along the roads in Maxixe and Chicuque and on the way to the hospital, which could be 1 m wide and 3.5 to 4.5 m deep. The width would vary according to the protected base, using a geo-textile membrane over a 0.8-m grit layer. ƒ Develop local water collection and water reservoir systems – no detailed interventions yet. ƒ Develop local water collection and water reservoir systems – no detailed interventions defined yet. ƒ Protection against coastal flooding– no detailed interventions defined yet.

Inhambane ƒ Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depressions in Liberdade 3 neighbourhood, reconnecting the depressions by gravity. The restoration of flow to the sea can be done via pipes or, in short term, with pumping solutions using mobile pipes about 300 m long. In quarteirão n°3 to the east of “Avenida Eduardo Mondlane” (road to Jangamo) and quarteirão n°2 to the west, the priority actions should be to build a pipe under the road and a ditch dug through quarteirão n°2. • Reduce rainwater accumulation in existing depressions in Chalambe 2 (irregular topography with numerous “troughs” inundated by the arrival and stagnation of run-off water), constructing an embankment (average height 1 m) and digging ditches along the existing road and street networks. The volume of the embankments is estimated to be approximately 5,000 m3 and the total length of the drains is on the order of 600 metres. • Protection against coastal flooding: the land near the sea and below 2.6 m elevation should remain free of buildings. A change in land use is highly recommended by allowing the land to return to its natural state or developing

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the growing of vegetable crops; and constructing non-residential or non- permanent infrastructure (sports fields, non-permanent markets, etc.).

As indicated, the identification of relevant measures covers only the initial stage. To reach the detailed and final stage and subsequent implementation, a series of steps is required including ensuring that the proposed interventions are environmentally and socially sound. The set of systems, procedures and mechanisms used to do so are summarized in this chapter that deals with “Safeguard Measures”.

Both Mozambican and World Bank legislation and regulations require that safeguard assessments and feasibility studies be conducted prior to the implementation of physical interventions. This would apply to the series of solutions and adaptations measures considered suitable and proposed in this study. In particular environmental assessments (EA) could need to be conducted in order to provide environmental license to the interventions. The EA process is discussed in this chapter as a way of providing general indications of the issues and modus operandi that would need to be considered in the environmental licensing of the interventions likely to be selected.

Mozambique has developed comprehensive regulations to cover the EIA process, which are included in the Regulation of the Process of Environmental Impact Assessment20. The regulations are in line with the world’s environmental and social management best-practices, including World Bank recommendations and procedures. They would take precedence for interventions to be adopted as part of this study.

There are two main specific objectives of any EA exercise: ƒ Scoping of the proposed developments in terms of their potential impact on the natural and social receiving environment, indicating both its beneficial outcomes and adverse effects. This initial screening is needed to determine the scope of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) required prior to approval of the interventions. If the investment is likely to have significant adverse environmental impacts that are sensitive, diverse, or unprecedented (a Category A), the EIA will be more stringent than if the investment has impacts which are less adverse, site- specific, mostly reversible and where adequate mitigation measures can be designed (Category B). For investments with multiple sub-projects, this screening is often done in the form of a checklist of potential impacts included in standard Environmental and Social Management Frameworks (ESMFs). The actual Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which assesses the potential impacts of the investment in detail and evaluates alternatives. ƒ Proposal of measures to be taken in order to avoid, mitigate and/or eliminate adverse effects both at the planning, design and installation stages, and during operation and eventual decommissioning of the project. This is generally done in the form of an Environmental Management Plan (EMP), which is normally an intrinsic part of the EIA.

20 Decree 45/2004 of September 29, 2004 and Decree 42/2008 of November 04, 2008

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It should be stressed that the Scoping Exercise, EIA and the Environmental Management Plan (EMP), are components of particular importance in any EIA process.

EIA Scoping

Scoping primarily explores fundamental issues and identifies any potentially significant positive and negative environmental as well as social impacts associated with the proposed development, helping to determine the scope of the Environmental Impact Assessment. This involves correspondence and liaison with key Interested and Affected Parties (I&APs) such as central, provincial and local authorities and other relevant project stakeholders.

Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (EIA)

Based on the findings of the scoping process the EIA makes a detailed description of the project’s receiving natural and socioeconomic environment. The descriptions form the baseline for the impact evaluation. The assessment of effects includes direct and indirect, secondary and cumulative, short and long-term effects as well as permanent and temporary and negative and positive effects of the proposed project and is done done for the design, construction, operation and, where applicable, the decommissioning phases of the project.

Environmental Management Plan (EMP)

In terms of the Regulation of the Process of Environmental Impact Assessment, an EMP should be prepared as part of the EIA process. The EMP “should include the monitoring of the impacts, prevention plans as well as accident contingencies”.

In an EMP, various mitigation measures are organized into a well-formulated plan, which serves as a guide for the construction and operational phases of a development.

An effective EMP is usually a practical document, which precisely sets out both the goals and actions required in mitigation.

The environmental management plan covers a set of measures that need to be taken to ensure that impacts are dealt with in the following hierarchical order21: ƒ Avoidance: Avoiding activities that could result in adverse impacts. Avoiding resources or areas considered as sensitive; ƒ Prevention: Preventing the occurrence of negative environmental impacts and/or preventing such an occurrence from having negative environmental impacts; ƒ Preservation: Preventing any future actions that might adversely affect an environmental resource. Typically achieved by extending legal protection to selected resources beyond the immediate needs of the project;

21 Adapted from: The World Bank. Environment Department. January 1999. Environmental Management Plans. Environmental Sourcebook Update. Number 25

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ƒ Minimization: Limiting or reducing the degree, extent, magnitude or duration of adverse impacts. This can be achieved by scaling down, relocating, redesigning elements of the project; ƒ Rehabilitation: Repairing or enhancing affected resources, such as natural habitats or water sources, particularly when previous developments have resulted in significant resource degradation; ƒ Restoration: Restoring affected resources to an earlier (and possibly more stable and productive) state, typically ‘background/pristine’ condition ƒ Compensation: Creation, enhancement or protection of the same type of resource at another suitable and acceptable location, compensating for lost resources.

More Specific Aspects about the Mozambican Context

Once the decision has been taken to go ahead with a certain intervention, the EIA Process comprises the following main phases:

Pre-assessment Application: This involves preparing the pre-assessment application following the form specified in Decree 45/2004. The pre-assessment application is aimed at providing sufficient information about the project for the environmental regulatory authority, the Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA), to categorize it. This assessment determines, or confirms (based on the category into which the activity falls) the type of assessment required for licensing. There are three possible categories under which a project can be expected to fall, namely: (i) Category A for projects that should be subjected to a full EIA exercise, which starts with the preparation of an Environmental Pre-feasibility and Scoping Study (EPDA) and the Terms of Reference of the EIA (see below); (ii) Category B for simpler projects for which focus should only be on the preparation of an environmental management plan (EMP) as part of a Simplified EIA Study; and (iii) Category C for projects that are exempted from undergoing any EIA process due to their simplicity and acknowledgment of the fact that they will not have any significant environmental and/or social impacts.

Environmental Pre-feasibility and Scoping Study (EPDA) - If a project is classified as a Category A there is a need to prepare an EPDA (EIA Scoping). EIA scoping involves a series of activities that can be divided into three broad categories, namely: 1. Garnering input from Interested and Affected Parties (I&APs) on: o Study of possible alternatives that may come to light during the study; o Identification of significant issues to be addressed; o Identification of possible mitigating measures; o Determination of specific guidelines for the impact assessment.

2. Obtaining and/or developing input from project proponents, designers, engineers and financiers on: o Detailed design specifications; o Design alternatives;

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o Timing; o Method of implementation and operational controls; o Decommissioning details.

3. Obtaining input from environmental specialists on: o Specific knowledge of the site; o Preliminary investigations conducted.

The scoping report details the scope of further work to be carried out during the subsequent phases of the EIA process as well as the areas of study (natural and socio- economic environments), time frames, methods and reporting requirements.

Terms of Reference for Environmental Impact Assessment (TOR) - Based on articles 10 and 11 of the Environmental Impact Assessment Process Regulation, there is a need to develop TORs for environmental studies, if a project is classified under Category A. The TORs have to be approved by MICOA before the environmental impact assessment can proceed.

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Environmental Management Plan Studies (EMP) – An environmental and social impact evaluation for the proposed project is required if an intervention is classified under Category A.

It is under the EIA phase as such that a detailed description of the project’s receiving natural and socioeconomic environment is made. The description forms the baseline for the impact evaluation. The assessment of effects includes direct and indirect, secondary and cumulative, short and long-term effects as well as permanent and temporary and negative and positive effects of the proposed project and is done done for the design, construction, operation and, where applicable, the decommissioning phases of the project.

As part of the environment and social assessment process, an Environmental Impact Report that includes a general Environmental Management Plan (EMP), should also be prepared. As detailed above, the EMP includes measures to avoid, reduce or compensate for significant adverse impacts or enhance positive impacts.

EIA Regulations also require that the Draft EPDA/TOR and the Draft EIA/EMP Report be debated in public meetings in relevant places for the project, to provide an open opportunity for all interested and affected parties (I&APs) to present their concerns and suggestions, for these to be considered in project enhancement.

By definition, Category A activities are those where the investments are likely to have significant adverse environmental impacts that are sensitive, diverse and unprecedented. Category A impacts also often extend beyond the site itself. They require full EIAs and EMPs.

Category B activities in general are activities that are less adverse than Category A, and site-specific, and do not significantly affect human populations or environmentally sensitive areas. The negative effects are of short duration, mostly reversible, low intensity, and limited in extension and magnitude. The impacts resulting from these

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activities allow for the definition and application of mitigation measures, which generally (but not always) require a simplified environmental impact process and an EMP.

Category C activities are defined as activities that usually do not require any EIAs or simplified environmental impact assessments, since the negative impacts are negligible, insignificant, minimal or non-existent. There are no irreversible impacts within these activities and the positive impacts are clearly superior and more significant than the negative ones.

From the array of adaptation measures proposed, it seems clear that they the various measures will be designated as Category A, B or C. Given their relatively reduced magnitude and complexity, most of the proposed adaptation options listed under this study would fall under Category B, requiring (i) only the preparation of an EMP as part of Simplified EIA Studies (Category B).

However, some measures, such as the building of drainage systems in the Bairros and measures that require the land to return to its natural state, may require a full EIA, EMP and may cause involuntary displacement (Category A).

Lastly, a few adaptation measures, such as instituting early warning systems and the creation of community awareness or disaster preparedness groups, would likely fall under Category C, .i.e. be exempt from the need to undergo an EIA process and be automatically licensed from the environmental and social point of view (Category C).

Resettlement

Certain interventions might require people to be resettled. The Regulation of the Environmental Impact Assessment Process, which governs the EIA process in Mozambique, says very little about resettlement, except that in its Annex I, point 1. Infrastructures, line a), it states that “under environmental licensing, all interventions requiring people to be resettled will be considered as Category A activities”.

Mozambique legislation guiding involuntary resettlement is spread over a series of legal documents dealing with land, general rights, compensation, etc. To counteract potential inconsistencies derived from using laws and regulations that are not always easy to harmonize, most of the resettlement procedures undertaken to date by development initiatives in Mozambique have basically followed OP 4.30 /OP 4.12 of the World Bank on Involuntary Resettlement, which is endorsed by the government. The policy covers the involuntary taking of land, as well as restriction of access to means of livelihood, as explained below. This would be valid to the proposed adaptation options for consideration as part of this study.

Involuntary resettlement has a significant impact on a person, family, group or community that is forcibly removed because of decisions made by agents outside the group.

Under the WB OP 4.12, resettlement is not restricted to its usual meaning – i.e. "physical displacement." Depending on the case, a resettlement action may include: (i) involuntary loss of land or physical structures on the land, including a business; (ii) restriction of access to means of livelihood such as would occur if part of a person’s

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yard, for example, was to be reduced due to the need to install a drain, road or ditch. Under these circumstances, the policy dictates that the affected persons (PAPs) must be fully compensate in order to improve (or at least restore) the levels of income or livelihoods prevailing before the action causing the resettlement took place.

International, regional and national practice that is embraced by the Government of Mozambique in general, indicates that, whenever possible, resettlement should be avoided and/or minimized.

When resettlement is a possibility, and prior to any investment implementation, as part of the overall orientation of the project/program it is necessary to prepare a Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) defining the principles, organizational arrangements, criteria for eligibility and compensation, and grievances and monitoring processes to be adopted under such project/program. Once it is determined that involuntary resettlement is needed, it is necessary to develop a Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) to ensure that the affected people are resettled and compensated adequately and equitably. Similarly, the affected people and the authorities that represent them should receive clear and timely information about the possible alternatives of compensation in order to choose the alternatives that best suit their needs. Therefore, the resettlement process must be participatory.

These principles would apply to the proposed measures under this study if they are to have resettlement implications. Additional and relevant principles include: ƒ People affected both directly and indirectly by project development are compensated as part of the project. ƒ Resettlement covers physical displacement and economic impacts causing the loss of, or loss of access to, any assets growing on or permanently attached to the land, such as shelters, buildings and crops and, to the impact causing loss of, or access to, an economic resource base or local communities’ means of livelihood. ƒ If the impacts include the need for physical relocation, measures must be taken to ensure that the affected people are provided with assistance (such as moving allowances) during relocation and be provided with residential housing, or housing sites, or, as required, agricultural sites for which a combination of productive potential, location advantages, and other factors are at least equivalent to the advantages of the old site. ƒ Losses may be total or partial. Local laws and regulations have adopted what the majority of donor policies emphasize to the effect that the absence of legal title to use and benefit of land does not limit rights to compensation. Preference should be given to land-based resettlement strategies for displaced people whose livelihoods are land-based. If sufficient alternative land is not available, non-land-based options built around opportunities for employment or self- employment should be provided in addition to cash compensation for land and other assets lost. The lack of adequate land must be demonstrated and documented.

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ƒ The need to involve people affected by the project in the planning and implementation of interventions that result from these policies is stressed. Resettlement planning includes: o early screening, o scoping of key issues, o the choice of resettlement instrument, and o the information required to prepare the resettlement activity.

The scope and level of detail of the resettlement instruments vary with the magnitude and complexity of the resettlement.

In its turn, World Bank OP 4.12 recognizes that involuntary resettlement can give rise to significant disturbance and risk of increased vulnerability for affected people caused by physical displacement or disruptions to their livelihood systems and income sources.

Specifically, OP 4.12 contains the following main principles and provisions: ƒ Involuntary resettlement should be avoided where feasible or minimized; ƒ Resettlement activities should be regarded as sustainable development programs with meaningful consultation with affected people in program planning and implementation; ƒ Affected people should be compensated for lost assets and assisted in their efforts to improve/restore their standards of living; ƒ Resettlement covers relocation/loss of shelter; loss of assets/access to assets; and loss of income sources or livelihood means (whether or not affected persons must physically relocate); ƒ A formal resettlement plan or resettlement policy framework is required to address project associated resettlement impacts. According to OP 4.12 a resettlement plan should describe the following: o The project, potential impacts and measures taken to avoid or minimize resettlement; o Socio-economic studies carried out to identify who is affected and nature of effects; information on vulnerable groups; local livelihood and land-tenure systems and social and cultural characteristics of affected populations; etc.; o Applicable legal framework with which the land acquisition and resettlement process should comply, and any gaps between national laws and OP 4.12; o Affected persons and eligibility for compensation and other resettlement assistance, including cut-off dates; o Methodologies to value losses and compensation at replacement cost; o Resettlement measures and support to be provided to project- affected people; o Resettlement sites including their identification, suitability, resettlement procedures, influx risks and institutional and legal

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considerations; o Plans to provide any necessary housing, infrastructure and social services; o Community consultation and participation during resettlement planning and implementation; o Measures to mitigate impacts of resettlement on host communities; o Grievance mechanisms and procedures; o The organizational framework for implementing resettlement; o Resettlement implementation schedule; o Resettlement costs and budget; o Monitoring and evaluation of resettlement implementation (internal and external).

Abbreviated RAP

Local legislation as well as World Bank guidelines (WB OP 4.12), specify that when the people being affected are less than 200 in number, or when impacts are minor, a Abbreviated Resettlement Plan may be agreed with the Government. An Abbreviated Resettlement Plan covers at a minimum the following elements:

(a) a census survey of displaced persons and valuation of assets;

(b) description of compensation and other resettlement assistance to be provided;

(c) consultations with displaced people about acceptable alternatives;

(d) institutional responsibility for implementation and procedures for grievance redress;

(e) arrangements for monitoring and implementation; and

(f) a timetable and budget.

In general, an Abbreviated Resettlement Plan describes the activities and actions of the project undertaken to minimize the resettlement and/or compensation. It also provides an officially certified inventory of persons affected by the project, an inventory of assets and their evaluation and, if necessary, a complementary socio-economic research that describes the dynamics of local life that will facilitate the understanding of the measures being taken to restore standards of living, which are equal or superior to what those people and families affected had before the project caused their new condition. The plan describes in detail the compensation and other forms of support, including the right of participation of affected people in alternative activities for development of livelihoods. The plan also identifies institutional responsibility for implementation, systems and procedures for submission, channelling of complaints and grievances, and arrangements for implementation and monitoring of schedule and budget. Based on the adaptation options that have been proposed so far, the safeguard policies that we see as being immediately triggered are presented in the table below:

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Safeguard policies triggered Inhambane Maxixe None Environmental assessment22 (OP/BP 4.01) X X Natural habitats (OP/BP 4.04) X Forests (OP/BP 4.36) X Pest management (OP/BP 4.09) X Physical and cultural resources (OP/BP4.11) X X Indigenous peoples (OP/BP 4.10) X Involuntary resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) X X Safety of dams (OP/BP4.37) X Projects on international waterways (OP/BP X 7.50) Projects in disputed areas (OP/BP 7.60) X

The objective of the safeguard measures matrix is to propose precautionary measures for preventing or reducing the impact of the proposed adaptation options within the Adaptation Plan. Necessary measures for mitigating the different environmental, social, physical and cultural impacts would be taken both during implementation of the options and, if future measures were adopted, by the Adaptation Plan.

22 Existing Mozambican legislation applies to most of the proposed adaptation options. However, the World Bank safeguard policies can be used to fill the gaps where Mozambican legislation falls short.

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7. Synthesis and conclusions

The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is assisting the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) of Mozambique to carry out a participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study for highly vulnerable areas in the towns of Maxixe and Inhambane, in southern Mozambique. The main objective of the commissioned study was to carry out mapping and spatial analysis of natural-hazard and climate-change vulnerability, with a second objective of establishing the best options for participatory urban-disaster risk management in full consultation with the exposed populations.

In order to achieve the aforementioned objectives, the study was designed to include the following components: (i) Mapping, (ii) Natural-hazard vulnerability and risk mapping, (iii) Adaptation measures, (iv) Participatory urban options for increasing overall resilience, (v) Estimation of costs; and (vi) Training and knowledge transfer.

As a first step of the study, stakeholders were identified at national, provincial and local levels. After that, the interest and power of each stakeholder were mapped in order to develop the best strategy on how to engage discussions with them: Information sharing (one-way flow), Consultation (two-way flow), Collaboration (control over decision making), or Empowerment (more transfer of control).

As a second step, the key natural hazards affecting Maxixe and Inhambane were mapped. These include soil erosion and surface run-off, flooding by heavy rains, coastal and marine floods, and coastal-cliff erosion. Comprehensive associated methodologies were developed and a GIS was designed for structuring data input and results.

As a third step, the categories of elements at risk were determined: these categories include three types of buildings (wooden huts, masonry houses and concrete buildings), two types of roads (asphalted and unpaved), and unbuilt sectors. Their vulnerability to the various identified hazards was defined.

As a fourth task, the risk was assessed by combining hazards with exposed elements and accounting for their appropriate vulnerability. The result was a set of 25 maps matching all combinations between hazards and exposed-element categories. These risk maps, included in the GIS, show a spatial gradation of the various risks associated to each category of element at risk. They actually classify sectors according to the probability of damage (human and material) associated to the corresponding hazard. The objective of these maps was to highlight sectors at risk in already urbanized zones, in order to provide help for drawing up action plans to decrease the vulnerability of elements at risk in the study zones, leading to: 9 Recommendations for town planning in order to minimize the risk (i.e. decrease of the vulnerability of elements at risk); 9 Adaptation measures for reducing the risk by acting on the hazard intensity itself.

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As a fifth step, adaptation measures against flooding, either due to intense rain or as a result of coastal flooding (seawater inundation), were proposed in order to: (i) decrease the vulnerability (fragility) of threatened sectors, and (ii) reduce the hazard where and when possible. Priority was given to the participation of all stakeholders identified during the diagnostic phase as key figures in the mitigation of natural disasters in the two towns. This participation was needed in order to identify the critical factors and areas vulnerable to actions from intense rainfall. Thus, the participants included representatives from local authorities: Municipality, City and Provincial governments. Moreover, a field trip served to collect information on the socio-economic status of the communities, their culture and their perceptions and coping mechanisms in relation to natural calamities. A preliminary adaptation action plan was proposed for: (i) Maxixe, where the dominant natural risk is associated with storm-water run-off, the erosion of slopes, and small areas that are affected by coastal flooding; and (ii) Inhambane, where the dominant risk is associated with coastal flooding, erosion of the shoreline (cliffs), and many sectors where storm-water drainage fails. The role and responsibilities of the municipalities, local structures such as neighbourhood Secretaries and Heads of Quarters, and State representatives in the two towns were proposed.

As a sixth step, recommendations were made for monitoring and evaluating the efficiency of the adaptation measures that were recommended and, when possible, for proposing corrective measures.

As a seventh step, safeguard measures were proposed for guiding the further assessment and implementation of the proposed adaptation options in accordance with Government of Mozambique and World Bank safeguard policies.

Finally, in a eighth step, the cost of implementing the adaptation options was estimated. This estimation includes five categories: special infrastructure components, monitoring and evaluation, safeguarding measures, contingencies, and implementation and management costs. These estimates should allow INGC to secure the funds for investment for the Adaptation Plan.

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Acronyms

ANE Autoridade Nacional de Estradas (National Roads Authority) ARA-SUL Administraçao Regional de Aquas do Sul CENACARTA Centro Nacional de Cartografia e Teledetecçao

DEM Digital Elevation Model EDM Electricidade de Moçambique (National Electricity Supplier) EIA Environmental and social Impact Assessment EMP Environmental Management Plan EPDA Environmental Pre-feasibility and Scoping Study FIPAG Fundo de Investimento e Património de Abastecimento de Água (Water Supply Investment and Asset Fund) GIS Geographical Information System INAHINA Instituto Nacional de Hidrografia e Navegação INAM Instituto Nacional de Meteorológia (National Institute for Meteorology) INAS Instituto Nacional de Acção Social (National Institute for Social Action) INGC Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (National Institute for Disaster Management) IPCC International Panel on Climate Change GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery MISA Media Institute of Southern Africa MOPH Ministério de Obras Públicas e Habitação (Ministry of Public Works and Housing) NGO Non-Governamental Organization TVM Televisão de Moçambique (National Television Channel) UNDP United Nations Development Programme WFP World Food Programme

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Appendix 1 : Legal framework

The present chapter presents a succinct review of both the international and national legal frameworks that guide interventions for participatory urban planning to increase resilience of communities affected by natural hazards. This section also describes some experiences of interventions in Mozambique aimed at building the capacity of urban communities to respond to natural disasters. Analysis of Relevant International Regulatory Frameworks and National Legislation, Instruments and Norms

In the international arena, actions in the defense of the environment are reinforced by diverse conventions such as the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, The Convention for the Protection, Management and Development of the Marine and Coastal Environment of the Eastern African, the African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, and other conventions subscribed by Mozambique for the SADC region.

At a national level, the response to natural disasters has received particular attention, which is demonstrated in the Mozambican Constitution and in other laws, policies, strategies, and regulations pertaining to the management of natural hazards and spatial planning.

After the approval of the second Constitution of Mozambique in 1990 and after the Rio Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992, significant developments have taken place in Mozambique in the realm of environmental management, use of natural resources and spatial/land use planning. This progress is based on three fundamental pillars: ƒ Adherence to international environmental protection and conservation instruments, namely the international conventions and regional protocols on environment; ƒ Approval of a several pieces of legislation that have a direct or indirect effect on the protection and conservation of the environment, including laws, decrees and numerous ministerial executive orders; and, ƒ Creation of specific public organs dealing with environmental issues or broadening of the mandate of the existing ones so as to take in additional environmental responsibilities.

The main legislation concerning the environment is very recent, but even more recent is the legislation related to physical planning. The Law and Regulation on Physical Planning were approved in 2007/2008, and result from the recognition of the difficulties created by unplanned occupation of space, especially in urban centres. It is worth noting that the Government of Mozambique has always had environmental and territorial management on its agenda. The main development strategy documents of Mozambique, such as the second version of the Poverty Reduction Strategy of Mozambique (PARPA II-2006-2009/2010) and the Environmental Strategy for

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Sustainable Development (EADS – 2007), have incorporated the issues related to spatial planning as one of their priorities in the domain of environmental management.

It is important to highlight the first steps of the implementation process of this recent legislation, obviously still requiring consolidation, considering the institutional weakness of the relevant bodies that characterizes Mozambique. These weaknesses thus demand capacity building measures as well as close monitoring and evaluation. The existence of laws and regulations alone will not make a difference if institutional strengthening is not envisaged and put into practice. Therefore, the climate change component just makes existing problems in relation to the efficient use of spaces even more complex, thus justifying consciously planned and studied interventions as this study proposes.

For the present study, the principal guiding documents for environmental and territorial management, and more specifically for natural disasters management, were grouped into the following categories:

• General Instruments:

• The Territorial Planning Policy, Law and Regulation 19/2007– This law provides the legal framework for the Spatial Planning Policy and deals with issues such as sustainable and rational use of natural resources; the balance between quality of life in rural and urban areas; improvement of housing and urban infrastructure, and the security of populations vulnerable to natural- or human-triggered disasters amongst other issues. According to these two legal instruments, the formulation of Territorial Planning instruments should be based on participatory methods to be included throughout the whole process. Recognizing the prevalence of non-compliance with respect to spatial plans in Mozambique, article 81 of the LOT’s Regulation, on administrative responsibilities, provides for heavy fines to both facilitators and lawbreakers and article 87 foresees demolition of Works that do not comply with spatial planning instruments.

• The Environmental Law does not specifically address the issue of human settlements, but Article 14 forbids the existence of infrastructures for habitation or other purposes that due to their size or location may lead to a negative impact on the environment. This is specific to coastal zones, areas affected by erosion, humid zones or other environmentally protected or ecologically sensitive areas.

• Article 8 of the Land Law 19/97 places restrictions on the development of human settlements and infrastructures close to valuable natural elements that require conservation.

• The Environmental Sector Strategic Plan for the period 2005-2015, which is a document defining the mission, vision, guiding principles and priority actions of the environmental sector. These priorities include: (i) sanitation and hygiene in relation to water and spaces; (ii) spatial planning; (iii) land

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degradation; (iv) natural resource management; (v) legal and institutional aspect; (vi) pollution; and, (vii) natural and environmental disasters.

• Specific regulatory instruments related to vulnerability:

• The Natural Disaster Management Policy, Resolution 18/99, from the 10th of June underscores the need for:

i. Active participation of communities in the design and implementation of prevention, relief and rehabilitation programmes and actions plans;

ii. Training, capacity building and civic education of the populations about the principal threats brought about by natural disasters and the respective prevention measures, with active participation from the media and technical staff and the use of local languages;

iii. Incentives to adopt risk insurance mechanisms and other prevention or mutual assistance instruments; and,

iv. Creation of financial and material reserve funds for areas more vulnerable to natural disasters.

• Climate Change Adaptation National Action Programme (NAPA) was created in 2007 under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 48 Least Developed Countries that are Parties to the Convention are preparing their own National Action Plans for Adaptation to Climate Change (NAPA). This document should include clear and simple information about the urgent and immediate needs for adaptation to climate change that must be prioritized. Mozambique has begun this process and aims at producing a physical and socio-economic profile of the Administrative Posts23 that are vulnerable to droughts, floods and tropical cyclones and would identify areas of refuge and evacuation canals.

• The National Action Plan for the Management of Natural Disasters is a document that defines the functions, mandates and control mechanisms of the principal local stakeholders in the event of a natural disaster. It also establishes the organizational structure for the prevention, promptness, and response and reconstruction phases associated with a specific type of natural disaster.

• The Master Plan for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Disasters (PDPMCN) is considered to be a complement to the PARPA and specializes in the management of risk in the interventions for the reduction of absolute poverty in Mozambique. The intervention strategy is incorporated in the search for ways and measures to rehabilitate

23An Administrative Post is a territorial unit below the District

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production factors and marginal economies in the zones most affected by natural disasters.

• The Contingency Plans are annual documents that have the objective of identifying activities to accomplish at all levels of the government, orientation and mobilization of the populations in areas of risk in order to prevent, reduce and mitigate the consequences of natural catastrophes (floods, cyclones and droughts). The coordination and execution of this Plan are done in collaboration with different national and provincial sectors and with the participation of the diverse entities.

• Learn to live with Floods: Manual of Recommendations for the Reduction of Vulnerabilities in Informal Settlements Susceptible to Floods, May 2004. This guide was created to help children understand the concepts, phenomena and aspects related to heavy rains and flooding. Its objective is to raise awareness of people, especially children, and have them interpret, through drawings and paintings, the different phenomena that occur during heavy rains/floods.

• Strategic instruments:

• The approval of the LOT, the respective regulation, and the introduction of the decentralized Planning and Finance methodology have contributed to the development of strategic and master plans of the districts, towns and cities, as well as their respective spatial planning instruments. In this framework, the towns of Inhambane and Maxixe have begun processes to create their own urban planning instruments, and currently only Inhambane has a Strategic Development Plan that was produced on the 12th of May, 2009. It is important to note that the Strategic Development Plans are not obligatory for the Municipalities, contrary to Spatial Plans.

• Specific territorial planning instruments:

• The Cities of Inhambane and Maxixe possess Structure Plans24 produced in different periods. In 1991, the Structure Plan encompassing both towns was prepared. In 1997 a Structure Plan for the town of Inhambane was started but not finished, having been interrupted at the appraisal stage on the grounds of the lack of financial resources. In 2008, a Structure Plan was produced for the town of Maxixe.

• Related regional and international conventions:

24In article 10 from the Spatial Planning Law, the Structure Plan is defined as the instrument that establishes the spatial organization of municipal or settlement unit, the parameters and norms for its utilization, keeping in mind the actual occupation, the existent and future infrastructure and social equipment and its integration in the spatial structure of the region.

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• The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity - ratified by the Resolution 2/94 on the 24th of August, with the following objectives, “ the conservation of biological diversity, the sustainable use of its components and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources, through appropriate access to those genetic resources and by appropriate transfer of relevant technologies, taking into account all rights over those resources and technologies, and by appropriate funding.”25

• Convention for Co-Operation in the Protection and Development of the Marine and Coastal Environment of the East African Region – ratified by Resolution n. 17/96 on the 26th of November. This convention presents a series of measures to conserve and protect the marine and coastal environment of the signatory states.

• African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources26 - ratified by the Member States of the African Union, through Resolution n.18/81, 30th of December. This convention was approved in the City of Algiers in 1968 and its fundamental objectives are to, “(i) Enhance environmental protection; (ii) foster the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources; and (iii) harmonize and coordinate policies in these fields.” 27

• Protocol on Wildlife Conservation and Law Enforcement in the SADC – ratified by Resolution n.14/2002, 5th of March. This protocol has as its primary objective, stated in line 1 of Article 4, “to establish within the Region and within the framework of the respective national laws of each State Party, common approaches to the conservation and sustainable use of wildlife resources and to assist with the effective enforcement of laws governing those resources.”

• Mozambique’s commitment as a State in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) – ratified through Resolution n. 21/81, 30th of December.

• Mozambique and Climate Change Actions Post-Copenhagen - The Institute for the Management of Natural Disasters (INGC) commissioned specific studies to be carried out in Mozambique on the impact of climate change and on the occurrence of natural disasters. The

25Article 1 from the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, ratified through Resolution n.2/94, 24th of August 1994. 26The new African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources was recently ratified by the Assembly of the Republic (2008) that was signed in 2002 by the Member States in the African Union Summit, of which the legal text has yet to be published in the Bulletin of the republic of Mozambique. Currently it can only be found in the judicial order of Mozambique. 27Article 1, African Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, African Union Member States, Algiers, 1968.

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Reports28 note several challenges that are being faced in the management of natural disasters in urban environments as a result of climate change. Experience and Lessons Learned from Similar Studies and Interventions

• From the literature review conducted, it was confirmed that there are very few studies or documentation available in relation to Urban Planning Interventions in the face of Natural Hazards. However, a number of studies identified refer to interventions in the rural areas that sought to save populations in exposed zones and resettle them in new areas. Specifically these interventions were carried out by UN-Habitat- Cities Alliance and Global Environmental Facility (GEF). The experiences presented here impart an approach that leans towards participatory spatial planning in environments that combine the urban and rural habitats. The existing experiences in Mozambique have occured in a combination of urban and rural habitats. Conclusions

Mozambique possesses several legal instruments and norms for the management of territory and natural hazards in addition to international commitments to enforce relevant norms in order to increase the capacity to cope with ever growing climatic adversity. Through analysis of the existing mechanisms to manage hazards and climate change in the urban areas, it can be understood that they are still incipient. Although management and spatial planning instruments exist, their creation and implementation still does not incorporate the issue of natural hazards.

The analysis of the initiatives carried out so far suggests a large focus on the management of disasters instead of the mitigation of hazards, assuming a reactive position depending on the occurrence of the disaster, although the Natural Disaster Management Policy recommends the need to change the mentality from a reactive to a pre-emptive attitude.

For example, the coordination activities carried out by the National Institute for Natural Disaster Management are characterized as reactive and the focus is on the emergency operation and humanitarian efforts. As opposed to management of risks, this is understood as a combination of the threat of an extreme event and specific vulnerability conditions. The participation of other sectors, such as the Municipality, is also still very limited. The incorporation of the management strategy against floods or

28INGC. 2009. Main report: INGC Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. [Asante, K., Brito, R., Brundrit, G., Epstein, P., Fernandes, A.,Marques, M.R., Mavume, A , Metzger, M., Patt, A., Queface, A., Sanchez del Valle, R., Tadross, M.,Brito, R. (eds.)]. INGC, Mozambique. INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. INGC Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. [van Logchem B and Brito R (ed.)]. INGC, Mozambique

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erosion in the physical planning instruments is still very ambiguous, which can be seen in the mapping of exposed areas at a moment when natural catastrophes currently are becoming more and more unpredictable. However, the Structure Plans produced in both Inhambane and Maxixe do point out in a tenuous way some areas that need to be protected, especially the coastal zones along the coastline.

Notwithstanding the little representation of the registered intervention in Mozambique in the realm of Participatory Urban Planning, which aims at improving the environment and quality of life in natural disaster situations, there are lessons to be learned in relation to participatory mapping phases in the exposed areas and proposed measures to improve the resilience to future adverse environmental events as presented by UN- Habitat and GEF. Other experiences can be added to the two above-mentioned ones based on the specific problems identified in the neighbourhoods chosen for this study in the Cities of Inhambane and Maxixe. In this context, studies and different forms of interventions such as the dissemination of best-practices and lessons learned, as they are proposed in the present study, will build the capacity of the community and enhance the response of urban communities affected by natural calamities.

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Appendix 2 : GIS details

CONCEPTUAL DATA MODEL

Domain list Three levels are defined, corresponding to different scale ranges for which data accuracy is adapted. Each of these levels is then stated though different domains. At national and provincial levels, different domains have been considered: • Administrative limits: country, provinces, districts and neighbouring countries limits, main cities position; • Topographic maps (1:250,000 and 1:50,000); • Roads and communication infrastructures; • Hydrographic network, coastline and wet zones; • Soils maps and land use; • Geology: geological map and contours, faults; • Geomorphology: Digital Elevation Model (DEM).

At urban level, the considered domains are: • Administrative limits: towns (Inhambane and Maxixe), Bareiros limits; • Geomorphology and Hydrography: DEM and slopes, coastal cliffs, water catchments, depressions and thalwegs; • Soils and land use; • Urbanism and infrastructures: urban fabric, roads and streets, strategic buildings, water-supply facilities; • Natural hazards: run-off and erosion, flash floods, marine floods, cliff erosion; • Risk maps: specifically defined for each category of element at risk; • Very high resolution satellites images, which constitute a fundamental basis for hazard and risk assessment and are thus gathered within a specific domain.

UML representation The UML representation is presented in Figure A2.1. It must be emphasized that systematically the same abbreviation has been used both for hazards and elements at risks. They are presented in the Table A2.1.

Hazard abbreviation Element at risk abbreviation CF Coastal Flooding B1 Wooden huts DR Depression flooding B2 Masonry house CC Coastal Cliff erosion B3 Concrete building TF Thalweg Floods R1 Unpaved roads SF Street floods R2 Asphalted roads

Table A2.1: List of abbreviations used for both hazards and elements at risks.

PHYSICAL DATA MODEL, METADATA AND GIS IMPLEMENTATION

Metadata Metadata are given in Table A2.2. (next pages).

Hazard and risk mapping In all covers of hazard mapping, corresponding to each considered phenomenon, every polygon is informed through: • One hazard level attribute expressed through a text format (5 characters) with 4 possible values (L-Low, M-Moderate, H-High, VH-Very High); • Five attributes corresponding to the five categories of elements at risk (B1-Wooden Huts, B2-Masonry Houses, B3-Concrete Houses, R1-Unpaved Roads, R2-Asphalted roads). From the risk matrix, these values are used to present the level of risk for the concerned type regarding the level of hazard: L-Low, M-Moderate, H-High.

In all covers of risk mapping, corresponding to each category of elements at risk, every polygon is informed through: • A synthetic risk attribute (text) gathering all information related to the different hazards. This attribute looks like “CF1-DR0-CC2-TF2- SF3”. It corresponds to CF-Coastal Flooding related risk at level 1 (Low), DR-Depression flooding related risk at level 0 (null), CC- Coastal Cliff erosion risk and TF-Thalweg Floods related risk at level 2 (Moderate) and SF-Street floods related risk at level 3 (High); • The local maximum risk level regardless of hazard; • Five attributes (one for each hazard) presenting the corresponding risk level expressed through text (L, M, H); • Five attributes (one for each hazard) presenting the corresponding risk level expressed through integer (0-null, 1-Low,2- Moderate, 3- High).

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Figure A2.1: UML representation of the urban level for Inhambane-Maxixe GIS

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Table A2.2: Metadata of Inhambane-Maxixe GIS

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Appendix 3: Sea levels in Inhambane Bay

Normal reference levels for the sea at Inhambane

Reference sea levels related to astronomic tides (excluding storm surges or falling levels resulting from atmospheric effects and waves on the shore) in Inhambane are given in relation to the hydrographic zero and terrestrial zero (datum) in the table below. Compared with the Compared with the hydrographic 0 terrestrial 0 High spring tide water level 3.3 m 1.4 m High tide neap tide 2.4 m 0.5 m Average level 1.93 m 0 m Low tide neap tide 1.4 m -0.5 m Low tide spring tide 0.5 m -1.4 m

Inhambane reference tide levels (Source INAHINA)

Figures for the highest astronomic tides (In Portuguese: Maré astronómica mais alta or MAMA) in Inhambane are not available. In the absence of this data, the maximum levels attained in 2010 at Inhambane were related to levels attained at Maputo in 2010. In 2010, the highest astronomical tides at Maputo reached 3.8m above the hydrographic zero, that is to say 1.7m above the average level. The highest astronomical tides in 2010 in Inhambane reached a sea level of 3.5 m above hydrographic zero, that is to say almost 1.6 m above the average level. We will therefore use the value of 1.6 m above the average level as the highest astronomical tides (MAMA) in Inhambane.

Extreme sea levels taken into account

The study “Ciclones e da Subida do Nível Médio das Águas do Mar: INGC Alterações Climáticas Relatório” provides, for three ports, the characteristic values of maximum sea levels for study periods of 10 and 100 years, compared with the average local sea level. The difference in maximum heights at the highest astronomical high tide (MAMA) gives a surge value for each return period. This is very much an approximation. Extreme levels may occur at times other than high tide. Maximum surges may be higher than the surges given here, but the extreme one-off level, for a given period, remains lower than the extreme levels. There are no such data available for the port of Inhambane; we thus estimated them using values from Maputo, Beira and Nacala. Surges apparent in the port of Inhambane for the data periods of 10 and 100 years, are estimated to, respectively, 50 cm and 100 cm.

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The table below gives the characteristic values of surges and tide levels that were used in this study. We note that a 10-year (or 100-year) surge needs not necessarily coincide with a very high tide. Port Inhambane Return period 10 years 100 years Surge 50 cm 100 cm MAMA (2010) 160 cm 160 cm Extreme sea level 210 cm 260 cm

Table 3.1: Surges, maximum astronomical tide level (MAMA) and extreme levels used for Inhambane. MAMA and extreme sea levels are compared with the average sea level (1.93 m) or datum from terrestrial maps

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Appendix 4 : Adaptation Options (Maxixe and Inhambane)

Area of intervention Responsible for the RISK N. Adaptation Option Quantity Unit Priority Town Neighbourhood implementation Set up gabions (wire of 2..4 mm, mesh 8 x 10 cm) of 5 metres long and 1.5 m height on a series of 5 in breaks 1 28 One Municipal Council High of 500 m on top of Reno-type mattresses (on thalwegs 103, 105, 106 and 110) for a total length of 14,000 m. Participation of the communities in the opening of Erosion access ways between infrastructures in order to 2 Qb ml Communities High reduce the impact of erosion in the spontaneously occupied areas along the coastline. 3 Building of ducts to the sea 13 One Municipal Council Medium 1 Digging of drainage ditches 6,500 ml Municipal Council Medium Building of a temporary barrier basin between 5,000 2 and 10,000 m3 for rain waters and their respective 1 One Municipal Council Medium Chambone control mechanisms. Maxixe Building of a collection system and reservoirs to store Mazambanine water in the construction areas (houses and socio- Community leaders and 3 n One Medium economic infrastructures) Chambone neighbourhood 1 members and 5. Flooding Building of drainage ditch along the roads of Maxixe and Chicuque and on the way to the hospita which

4 could be 1 m wide and 3.5 to 4.5 m deep. The width 10 km Municipal Council High would vary according to the protected base using a geo-textile membrane over a 0.8-m grit layer. Participation of the community in the construction of pavements around their homes with conventional 5 materials such as cement. Qb - Communities High

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Area of intervention Responsible for the Adaptation Option Quantity Unit Priority RISK N. implementation Town Neighbourhood Revise their urbanization plan to include the the other Maxixe Chambone 1 adapation measures, related to efficient drainage systems for rainwater. In addition, they could incorporate the establishment of public services and Mazambanine - - Municipal Council Medium transportation in their urban plans in order to pull people to areas where these services are lacking. This also might reduce the amount of people living in hazard prone areas. The Urban Structure Plan of Maxixe could be revised 2 in the aspects related to use of land in areas susceptible to flooding and erosion, as well as aspects 1 - Municipal Council High related to indicating areas reserved for drainage and erosion control infrastructures Detailed Urbanization Plans for the neighbourhood of Lack of 3 Mazambanine could be produced focusing on selecting Urban areas where habitation development would be 1 - Municipal Council Medium Planning prohibited, areas at risk of erosion and flooding and other sensitive areas, accompanied by their respective mitigation measures Staff from the Planning and Urbanization Departments 4 in the Municipal Council could be trained in the production of Detailed Urbanization Plans in what 1 Training Municipal Council High relates to the inclusion of a component that increases the resilience of urban communities in the face of climatic adversities. Staff from the Provincial Directorate of Public Works 5 and Housing and from the Provincial Delegation of the National Roads Administration could be trained in 1 Training ANE High order to observe the norms for rodoviary design and respective rainwater drainage works in sensitive areas.

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Area of intervention Responsible for the Risk N. Adaptation Option Quantity Unit Priority Town Neighbourhood implementation Construct an embankment of 1.00 m of gravel in a 2 surface of 2.500 m in a marked area the is bordered to 3 Inhambane Accumulation 5,000 m Municipal Council Medium of rainwater the north by Av. Do Trabalho and to the south by Av. Patrice Lumumba and Moçambique. Building of a drainage system along the embankment bordered to the north by Av. Do Trabalho and to the 600 Linear metre Municipal Council Medium south by Av. Patrice Lomumba and Moçambique. 1 Build a drainage system between Rua 20 de Setembro and the old railway that is 4 to 5 m deep passing 600 Linear metre Municipal Council High through Eduardo Mondlane towards the sea. Construct an embankment at the Q2 for the passing of 3 15,000 m Municipal Council Medium the drainage pipes. Construct an embankment with gravel in an area of 8 ha 3 200,000 m Municipal Council Low behind Av. Eduardo Mondlane. Set up pumping equipment ( 200 to 400) on blocks 2 and 4 and the respective absorbing pipes for dirty water 2 One INGC High 2 (2,000 m). Areas that are prone to flooding could be transformed Depends

into green areas where sports fields and parks can be on which Community and Municipal Ha High 3 developed areas are Council

flooded A full restructuring of the current Inhambane Town Structure Plan and its Urbanization Plans could be carried out. A new instrument could converge into the Liberdade 3 Detailed Plan supported by a sustainable Urbanization 1 Plan Municipal Council Medium 4 Plan. The zones at risk of marine invasion would be delimited as well as the zones that could be used for other activities. Awareness campaigns could be carried out in the communities through talks and posters that talk about INGC, Municipal Council and 3 Campaigns High 5 the elimination of residual solids and defecation in open Representation of the State, areas. The communities could adhere to the campaigns related INGC, Municipal Council and 3 Campaigns High 6 to the construction of individual improved latrines. Representation of the State The population could open spaces where ecological latrines could be installed in case the phreatic 7 2 Areas of 9 m2 Communities and INGC High groundwater level would rise.

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Area of intervention Responsible for the Neighbourhoo Risk N. Adaptation Option Quantity Unit Priority Town implementation d Landmark an area prone to risk below 2.6 metres and 1 7 Ha Municipal Council Medium build embankments The areas at risk could be returned to their natural state of vegetation and non residential infrastructures (sports Municipal Council, 2 fields, non permanent markets, etc.) could be - - Representation of the State Medium developed. and the INGC, The communities could participate in the construction of 3 dykes using environmentally friendly materials. Qb - Communities High Awareness campaigns could be carried out in the communities through talks and posters that talk about INGC, Municipal Council and 4 3 Campaigns High the elimination of residual solids and defecation in open Representation of the State, areas. The communities could adhere to the campaigns related INGC, Municipal Council and 5 3 Campaigns High to the construction of individual improved latrines. Representation of the State The population could open spaces where ecological 6 latrines could be installed in case the phreatic 2 Areas of 9 m2 Communities and INGC High groundwater level would rise. The community could participate in the construction of Chalambe 2 e Inhambane 7 pavements around their homes with conventional Qb - Communities High Liberdade 3 Marine Invasion materials such as cement. The areas of extreme risk could be visibly demarcated. 8 Qb - Municipal Council High

The structure plan could be revised for Inhambane in 9 the aspects relating to the use of land in areas 1 Plan Municipal Council High susceptible to marine invasion. Detailed Urbanization Plans could be developed to improve the localization of social equipment and 10 1 Plan Municipal Council High infrastructure in the areas that have been spontaneously settled that are susceptible to marine invasion. The staff of Municipal Councils and Public Works could be trained in urban planning and the construction of Provincial Directorate of 11 1 Course High infrastructures in areas of environmental risk close to Public Works and Housing the coast. The communities could participate in the giving up of individual gardens in order to open and increase space 12 Qb - Community Medium for access ways so as to improve the intervention in emergency situation.

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Appendix 5 : Examples of standard solutions

9 SEW: rainwater sewerage system 9 FL: Flow of run-off water 9 MR: Managing run-off 9 SP: Shore Protection

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Environmental Impact: LOW

Social Impact: LOW

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Environmental Impact: MEDIUM

Social Impact: Potentially high if it results in involuntary taking of land or restriction of access to means of livelihoods

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Area of application:

SEW3 The rainwater sewerage system Infiltration and storage Basins

Main goal : run-off control an flow reduction Suitable to : priority : Suitable to : ; existing landcover ; yes ;Maxixe ; upstream area ; futur landcover no Inhambane ; downstream area Description : Retention ponds temporarily store some of the run-off volume. The amount stored depends on the surface area and depth; it is about 5,000 to 10,000 m3 in the study area. Water is collected, stored in the basin and finally discharged with controlled flow. Basins can be supplied for example by drains located across the road. The dry ponds will be used very rarely because they will intervene in case of failure of the existing sewerage network. These basins can thus serve another purpose at other times: sports, green space, etc. Retention ponds should be placed along the main thalweg. They mark the flow area for overflow and they are a way to reinstate the vision of water and flooding in the urban area. Maintenance should be relatively frequent (at least annual after each rainy season).

(Source: dhn.iihr.uiowa.edu)

Environmental Impact: MEDIUM

Social Impact: Potentially High if it involves involuntary taking of land or restriction of access to means of livelihoods

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Environmental Impact: LOW to MEDIUM

Social Impact: MEDIUM

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Environmental Impact: LOW

Social Impact: LOW

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Environmental Impact: LOW

Social Impact: Potentially High if it involves involuntary taking of land or restrictions of access to means of livelihoods

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Environmental Impact: Medium to High, as it may alter shoreline

Social Impact: Potentially High, if it results on involuntary taking or loss of land or restriction to means of livelihoods

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Appendix 6 : Adaptation measures in Maxixe (watersheds 103 and 105)

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Appendix 7 : Adaptation measures in Maxixe (watersheds 106 and 107)

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