Consultation Report No. 3
Self-determination, The Oil and Gas Sector and Religion and the State in the Sudan
The Sudan Peace-Building Programme
African Renaissance Institute (ARI)
&
Relationships Foundation International (RFI)
United Kingdom
January 2002
Table of Contents
The Summary Discussion Notes included in this document were compiled under the Chatham House Rule. They do not reflect the opinions of any one participant but are drawn from the range of views expressed, nor do they necessarily reflect the views of the African Renaissance Institute or the Relationships Foundation International.
Section A
I. Preface 3
II. List of Participants 4
III. Recommendations by the Sudanese Participants 6
Section B
IV. List of Issues Considered and Ensuing Discussion 8
1. The Changing Structure and Role of the State in Africa by Professor Washington A. J. Okumu 8
2. Self-determination: the international experience by Mr Marc Weller 23
3. The Politics of Self-determination in the Sudan: between strategic admission and tactical avoidance by Dr Peter Nyot Kok 61
4. Sudan Hydrocarbon Resources by Dr A. R. O. Abdel Rahman 75
5. The Impact of Oil and Gas Development on the Local and National Economy, Environment and Society in the Sudan by Dr Peter Adwok Nyaba 101
6. International Experience with the Relationships between International Oil and Gas Companies and Government and its Relevance for the Sudan by Mr David Nailo N. Mayo 132
1 7. International Experience with the Oil and Gas Revenue Sharing Arrangements in Federal and Confederal States and Possible Options for the Sudan by Mr David Nailo N. Mayo 145
8. How Religion and State Have Been Handled in the Sudan and How They Have Impacted the Three Faith Communities, Muslims, Christians and Indigenous Beliefs: a historical background by Professor Yusuf Fadl Hassan 169
9. A State Based on Shari’ah and the Right of non-Muslims by Professor Al-Tayib Zein al-Abdin 192
10. Reflections on Religion & the Post-Colonial State in the Sudan: what is mine is mine, and what is yours is negotiable by Dr Taisier Mohammed A. Ali 212
11. A State Based on Shared Ethical Values by Dr Mario Awet 221
12. Fluidity of Identities in the Sudan: pulling apart for a sounder coming together by Professor Francis M. Deng 247
13. How can Trust and Confidence be built between the Sudanese Constituencies by Dr Edward A. Christow and Dr Jeremy Ive 257
2 I. Preface
The Sudan Peace-Building Programme is a strategic partnership between the African Renaissance Institute (ARI) and the Relationships Foundation International (RFI). The overall goal of the programme is to help bring long-term and sustainable peace to the Sudan. The programme's methodology is based around a series of informal, confidential and low profile consultations attended by senior Sudanese leaders linked to the key constituencies in the country, and representing all shades of social, political and religious opinion. The Sudanese participants help decide on the key constitutional and economic issues for research and discussion at each consultation. The programme does not itself become involved in any official peace negotiations between parties in conflict, but aims to prepare the ground for such negotiations at a later stage.
Over the last two years, the Sudan Peace-Building Programme has held three consultations to fulfil these objectives. The first consultation introduced the aims, methodology and activities of programme to the participants, gave an opportunity to the participants to get to know each other and covered in general terms the issues of peace dividends, oil, water and alternative constitutional frameworks of settlement in the Sudan. The second consultation focused on two areas in detail (1) Water and Agriculture and (2) Federalism and Self-determination. The ensuing discussion during this consultation was backed by ten papers which were presented by international experts.
The papers and summary of discussion contained in this report were presented during the third consultation, which focused on three areas (1) Self-determination (2) the Oil and Gas Industry in the Sudan and (3) the Religion and the State in the Sudan. Since Self-determination was not exhaustively treated in the last consultation it was revisited in greater detail during this consultation. The goal of the discussion on Oil and Gas in the Sudan was to explore the past present and future of the energy sector, examine the impact as well as the various ways through the revenue could be shared and the ownership structure organised. The goal of the discussion on the Religion and the State in the Sudan was to explore alternative frameworks which could accommodate the interests of the various constituencies in the country.
The Sudan Peace-Building programme and the three consultations which have been held to date, are building a body of relevant knowledge about the factual situation in the Sudan on complex issues such as water, agriculture, alternative constitutional frameworks, transitions and peace dividends, self-determination, the oil and gas industry and religion and the state in the Sudan. In addition, the consultations are building relationships between the Sudanese participants and are aiding each participant’s understanding of their respective positions. It is hoped that we are laying a firm foundation for a future successful mediation based on informed knowledge of the real situation in the Sudan.
We look to the future of the Sudan with growing optimism.
Professor Washington Okumu Presiding Chairman Sudan Peace-Building Programme London and Nairobi February 2002
3 II. List of Participants
The following Sudanese and international participants attended the third consultation of the Sudan Peace-Building Programme1, which took place from 28 January through 1 February 2002 in the United Kingdom.
All Sudanese participants attended in their personal capacity
A. Sudanese Participants
1. Professor Yusuf Fadl Hassan 2. Professor Hassan Makki Mohammed Ahmed 3. Ms Amira Yusif Adam Haroun 4. Professor Faroug Mohammed Kadouda 5. Professor Richard Hassan Kalam Sakit 6. Mr John Luk Jok 7. Ms Rebecca J. Okwaci 8. Mr Monyluak Alor Kuol 9. Mr Abdon Agaw Jok Nhial 10. Professor Hammad Bagadi 11. Dr Fadil Shibeika 12. Dr Alhassan Mustafa Ahmed Onoor 13. Dr Priscilla Joseph Kuch 14. Dr Shafir Harir 15. Dr Taisier Mohammed Ali 16. Mr Reafee Sbu Jamoona 17. Col Dominic Dim Deng 18. Dr Sayed el-Khateeb 19. Dr Peter Nyot Kok 20. Dr Sumaia Abukashawa 21. Mr Rabie Hassan Ahmed 22. General Yousif Ahmed Yousif 23. Ms Sophia Pal Gai 24. Mr Samuel Odat Ayul
B. Apologies from Sudanese Participants 1. Dr Samson Wassara
1 The Sudan Peace-Building Programme process is a strategic partnership between the African Renaissance Institute (ARI) and the Relationships Foundation International (RFI).
4 C. International Facilitators
1. Professor Washington Okumu, Presiding Chairman, Vice-Chairman of ARI, Commissioner for Peace and Governance and Executive Director for Eastern and Central Africa 2. Viscount Brentford, Co-Chairman, RFI Chairman, British Peer and Former Member of the House of Lords 3. Dr Jeremy Ive, RFI Executive Director 4. Dr Michael Schluter, RFI Research Director, and Chairman of the Relationships Foundation 5. Dr Edward A. Christow, RFI Executive Secretary and Deputy Research Director
D. International Consultants
1. Mr Marc Weller, Assistant Director of Centre for International Studies, Cambridge University, UK 2. Dr A. R. O. Abdel Rahman, Director General, Ben Bakriya Co. Ltd., Sudan 3. Mr David Nailo N. Mayo, Doctoral Candidate, University of Birmingham, UK 4. Professor Al-Tayib Zein Al-Abdin, Professor, Faculty of Social Science, International Islamic University, Pakistan 5. Dr Mario Awet, Graduate of University of Birmingham, UK 6. Professor Francis M. Deng, Professor, City University of New York, US
E. International Participants/Discussants
1. Dr Andrew Michels, Executive Director, International Human Rights Law Institute, De Paul University, Chicago, USA 2. Mr Jim Dunlap, Special Advisor, Department of State, USA 3. Mr Charles McPherson, Head of Energy Department, World Bank 4. Mr Chris Poncia, Managing Director of C.R. Poncia Limited
F. Apologies from International Participants
1. Mr Elmar Brok, Chairman of the European Union Foreign Relations Committee 2. Sir Fred Catherwood, Former Vice-President of the European Parliament and Former Vice-President of the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee
5 III. Recommendations by the Sudanese
A. Introduction
1. At the end of the Third Consultation of the Sudan Peace-Building Programme, we, the Sudanese participants wish to commend the African Renaissance Institute (ARI) and the Relationships Foundation International (RFI) for their noble efforts exerted so far, and encourage them to persevere in those efforts dedicated to the promotion of peace building in the Sudan as complementary endeavours to the on-going peace initiatives.
We appreciate the frank and positive dialogue of the meeting during the past days. We believe the Third Consultation should be considered to be successful owing to:
(a) Wider participation and more serious engagement. (b) Involvement of many Sudanese experts in writing papers on oil and gas, self- determination and religion and the state. (c) More time for participants to discuss the issues raised. (d) Ideas and suggestions which brought consensus closer on major issues, especially on self-determination and religion and the state.
B. Religion and the State
2. In view of the diversity of the Sudan, no single religion, race or culture should be used as the basis of the identity of the Sudan. The aim should not be the reduction of religion but the emphasis should be on citizenship and national identity, and their protection from the encroachment of any external considerations.
3. The state should guarantee freedom of religious and cultural expression and other human rights, under the supremacy of the rule of law.
4. Confidence and trust need to be built in ways that lead to mutual recognition and respect for the multi-religious, multi-ethnic and multicultural nature of the Sudan. In particular, in view of the fact that religion has become a major factor in the current conflict, and in order to give unity a chance in the Sudan, the constitution should not designate any religion as the state religion.
5. In order to promote understanding between the Sudanese people through dialogue, discussion and criticism, all parties should promote discussion on sensitive issues pertaining to religion, policies and governance.
6 C. Self-determination
6. The consultation urges all parties, who had already accepted the principle of self- determination, to enter into a negotiated transitional period. We believe voluntary unity is the desire of the majority of the Sudanese people. However, unity is not possible without justice for all. The parties should address the following concerns:
(a) To put in place mechanisms which will establish and maintain democracy, human rights and the supremacy of the rule of law. (b) To redress the injustice and inequalities of the present situation in the country. (c) To ensure effective accountability of all public bodies throughout the country. (d) To address the imbalance in the relationship between the centre and the periphery. (e) To define the entities of self-determination and the process of the referendum.
D. Oil and Gas Sector
7. There is an urgent need for an impartial international commission of experts agreed by all parties to establish the facts of what is happening in this sector. The terms of reference of the commission should include:
(a) Whether there has been forced clearing of the oil areas. (b) The extent of environmental damage caused by the oil wells and pipeline. (c) Whether the short-term exploitation of the oil fields by foreign oil companies has damaged the long-term oil production potential from those fields. (d) How the revenue from the oil sector has been used. (e) Levels of profitability of the foreign oil companies.
8. The international commission should also be asked to make recommendations on the following issues:
(a) Ways to increase transparency relating to the activities of foreign oil companies, and of the levels and uses of the oil revenues. (b) Ways to include all the stakeholders in decisions affecting the present and the future of the industry. (c) Potential forms of revenue-sharing agreements between central and regional-state governments and how they should be administered.
E. Conclusion
9. From our deliberations, we wish to commend the points above for consideration by all those concerned for the future of the Sudan. In addition we wish to affirm that peace, democracy, freedom and justice are essential requirements for any step forward.
7 IV. Background Papers to the Third Consultation and Summary of the Ensuing Discussion
1. The Changing Structure and Role of the State in Africa
a. Paper Presented by Professor Washington Okumu
(1) INTRODUCTION
It was immediately after the end of our Second Consultation on the Sudan Peace Building Programme, which took place in Feldon Lodge, Hemel Hempstead, England, 16th - 20th July 2001, that I felt that time was now ripe to talk openly about the changed political and economic circumstances in the world since the end of the Cold War in 1990 and how they affected the people of Africa and their governments. Many people in Africa did not understand why there was a sudden explosion of ethnic conflict in the continent so soon after the end of the Cold War. It was as if these potential ethnic conflicts were just lying dormant like a volcano only waiting to erupt at an appropriate moment. Although I hasten to add that there are certain conflicts which have been going on during the Cold War, but they were few in number. The Angolan war and the Sudan conflict are clear examples in Africa. Admittedly, these conflicts did not only erupt in Africa. We have the examples of the horribly violent break-up of the former Yugoslavia in Europe which culminated in the creation of six states in the names of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia - Herzegovina (which was further curved up into a small Serbian State or enclave), and later we are witnessing the creation of Kosovo and possibly Macedonia. Also the former communist state of Czechoslovakia was split into the two republics of Czeck and Slovakia. In Asia, we have seen the establishment of a new state in East Timor which was formerly ruled by Indonesia. The only major state which was created during the Cold War was Bangladesh which was part of Pakistan before. We do not know, as yet, how the Indo-Pakistani conflict over Jammu and Kashmir will be finally resolved. In the case of the Israeli- Palestinian conflict in the Middle East, the world has agreed to the creation of an independent Palestinian State in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. It now remains only a matter of when. Nearer home in Africa we have had the creation of Eritrea out of Ethiopia.
I have touched on these issues because they will have serious implications for our deliberations from now onwards. It has also been pointed out that the interpretation of the evolution of global politics after the end of the Cold War required a paradigm shift in our political and economic thinking since no paradigm is externally valid. I will revert to this point later in my presentation. Suffice it to mention here only that those ethnic
8 groups who had been hitherto suppressed as a result of or during the Cold War suddenly found a new lease of life and began to assert their inalienable political rights and dignity after 1990. The present situation can only be compared with the period after the end of the Second World War in 1945 when those countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East that had been subjected to colonialism and imperialism began to assert their rights to self- determination. In the Middle East in particular, the process began in 1830 when the French took Algiers and nine years later the British colonized Aden. As the Ottoman Empire declined, this colonial expansion continued inexorably: Tunisia was occupied in 1881, Egypt in 1882, the Sudan in 1898, and Libya and Morocco in 1912. In Sub- Saharan Africa, the process began in earnest during the Scramble for Africa after Berlin Conference of 1884. The only exception was the southern tip of the continent where the Dutch and the British settled in what is today the Republic of South Africa from 1652 onwards. The Portuguese also settled in Angola and Mozambique much earlier. The same applies to Sao Tome and Principe, Guinea Bissau, and the Cape Verde.
It was my intention to talk mainly about economic issues and in particular the phenomenon of globalization and how it has affected the African people. I genuinely felt that the African people and their leaders had not yet fully appreciated how their lives would be changed, willy-nilly, by these momentous developments in the world. As I have said above, it was not my intention to speak about the political changes and consequent military and security balance of power in the world, if ever there was such a balance since, in effect, the USA had emerged as the pre-eminent and in fact the only superpower in the world. And when I talk about superpower I mean it in terms of economic, political and military terms.
I know that most of you will quickly wonder as to how does this affect our current deliberations on peace in Africa in general and in Sudan in particular. But I plead with you to be patient because the issue will become quite clear to you very shortly.
You may also wonder as to why did I think of this particular issue of globalization during our conference in July 2001? I hope most of you must have read in the world's major newspapers the terrible violence which was unleashed in Genoa, Italy, during the G8 meeting which was taking place almost at the same time we were holding our conference. It found when I had myself read very deeply and widely on two issues which have been very close to my heart (apart of course, from international mediation and peacemaking), namely: globalization and the eradication of poverty in Africa. I want to quickly add that with regard to the latter subject, the popular language used in most Western
9 publications and international organizations is poverty alleviation or poverty reduction. I think we in Africa must set ourselves a more ambitious goal than that. We must not allow the West to set the goal or agenda for us, intellectually or otherwise as is usually the case. World Bank statistics has revealed to us that most people in Asia and Latin America are living on less than US $1 a day. In Africa, the figure is below US $0.65 cents per day. This is absolutely scandalous, considering Africa's wealth in terms of its human and natural resources. In Sudan, for instance, although people are generally perceived to be still very poor, but the country is enormously wealthy in terms of its human and natural resources. Sudanese oil exploration began in the 1950's in the coastal water of the Red Sea and while the country has been an oil and natural gas producer for a number of years, it is considered vastly unexplored. Recent finds at the Heglig and Unity oil fields in South - Eastern Sudan have changed that dramatically with 1999 reserves estimated at a respectable 1.2 billion barrels and natural gas reserves at 3 trillion cubic feet. Latest figures put the monetary value of the discovered reserves at well over US $ 45 billion and this figure is climbing by the year. Now, back to the subject of globalization. The Genoa demonstrations against globalization of the G8 meeting reminded me of similar demonstrations in Seattle, USA, in November 1999 which stopped or scuttled an important international conference on world trade organised by the World Trade Organisation (W.T.O) and again in Gothenburg, Sweden in June 2001 at a meeting of the European Union Summit. One of the most active organisers of the Seattle demonstrations has written the following as justification for their opposition to the phenomenon of globalization:
"I think we are really at war. We've got an enemy which is the whole corporate system. The objective of that corporate system, whether financial or industrial, is to be able to go where it wants, when it wants, for as long as it wants, to make as much money as it can, and damn the costs.... If the enemy is transnational and is going for total control, then I think it's obvious that the response has also got to be a mix of people. That's not our goal. We want international democracy. But if we are to get it we've got to fight for each other. If we're not fighting each for all, all for each, we're going to be picked off one by one... We've got to stop and turn around and we've got to do nothing less than overthrow the permanent government of the transnational corporations. This is difficult and we shouldn't hide from ourselves the difficulty because we've got to make a huge leap towards common action which transcends not just nationality, which is already hard enough, but we've also got to transcend all the other boundaries; all the boundaries of age, of class, or race, of gender - all
10 special interests. We can win if we pledge ourselves to each other because history is handing to us an enormous opportunity and we've got to seize it." *1
During the Gothenburg demonstrations, many activists came together from throughout the continent to demonstrate against what they termed as the neo-liberal policies of an undemocratic E.U. The organisers of the marches and workshops which took place over several days had said in their statement of purpose that:
"We oppose the transformation of the public sector and our environment into nothing more than commodities. We oppose the militarisation of the E.U., racism and the construction of a Fortress Europe." *2
I have mentioned the above events in order to let you know that when I speak of the need for Africa and the leaders of the continent to have a major and fundamental paradigm shift with regard to the need for an urgent change in their perception of the changing role of government occasioned by globalization in the last twelve years, I am not accused of being oblivious to other opposing points of view. I should not be accused, for instance, of extolling the virtues of globalization without being aware of some of its negative, or as some critics would even like to emphasize, nefarious effects. I am very much aware of the long tentacles of corporate globalization and how the system can be quite oppressive in small countries in Africa with no economic and political power to resist its spreading influence. I am aware of the corporate libertarianism's ideology which advocates total freedom for corporations from restraints of regulation and national borders in the pursuit of profit. In fact, in this regard, I share the same views expressed, strangely enough, by none other than George Soros, the renowned international financier, who has written the following:
"Perhaps the greatest threat to freedom and democracy in the world today comes from the formation of unholy alliances between government and business. This is not a new phenomenon. It used to be called fascism. The outward appearances of the democratic process are observed, but the powers of the state are diverted to the benefit of private interests." *3
What George Soros mean becomes quite clear when you read a book entitled: "Masters of the Wired World",*4 in which leading Western political leaders such as Tony Blair, Al Gore, Martin Bangemann, Alvin Toffler, and Sir Arthur Clarke, extol the virtues of the Global Information Infrastructure (GII), in which they are quite right, but at the same
11 time are somewhat oblivious to the sort of havoc which can be wrought on the economies of the poor African countries. There are many examples which attests to sometimes ruthless arrogance of the West in imposing their thoughts and systems on the rest of the world. Here again the most intellectually authoritative international best-seller book has been written by Professor David Korten of Harvard University. *5
As I have said above, I point these issues to avoid creating the impression that I am pushing the economic agenda of the West and their powerful transnational or multinational corporations. What I am doing is being realistic and recognizing our weakness in so many areas which has made it impossible for us to be heard or set part of the agenda in international economic and political affairs. My plea to the international community,*6 so called, is to realize that the resources of the world has been given to us by God as a sacred trust, and that trust involves creating a world that is fair and works for all; a world that we, through our consciousness and collective actions have a responsibility to bring into existence for ourselves, for our children, for the yet unborn. Accepting this profound responsibility takes us to a whole new place as human beings. The fact that South Africa and Nigeria are now being allowed to attend the G8 meetings, albeit as observers, is a very encouraging development for Africa.
In any case, whatever that may be said about globalization, and its possible deleterious effects in the development of African countries, there is no denying the fact that globalization is not simply a trend or a fad, but is, rather an international system. It is the system that has now replaced the old Cold War system, and, like that Cold War system, globalization has its own rules and logic that today directly or indirectly influence the politics, environment, geopolitics and economies of virtually every country in the world. In other words, if you want to understand the post-Cold War world today, you have to start by understanding that a new international system has succeeded it - and that is globalization. It is the defining international system in that it has replaced the Cold War system as the dominant organizing framework for international affairs. It is the most important phenomenon of our time. In purely modern theoretical economic terms, globalization has been defined in the following manner:
"Globalization means the closer integration of the world economy resulting from increasing flows of trade, ideas and capital and the emergence of multicountry production networks spawned by the investment activities of transnational corporations. Multinationals account for a large share of world production, and perhaps one third of all trade is within firms. But globalism
12 extends beyond economic interdependence to embrace the transformation of time and space as a result of the communications revolution and the spread of information technology. People are now more directly affected by distant events. By the same token, microlevel actions can have microlevel consequences. A change in the use of fuels or in the energy intensity of production in one part of the world can have significant effects." *7
(2) THE CHANGING ROLE AND STRUCTURE OF THE STATE IN AFRICA:
With the above definition, we now come to the real core of my paper by examining the implications of globalization in the way African states have been operating and how they can adapt to the new international economic system and benefit from it. We shall also have a brief look at the effect of globalization on ethnic conflicts in Africa. As Tony Blair has rightly said:
"The world economy is undergoing a process of change as fundamental as the shift from agrarian to industrial production: the emergence of the knowledge - driven economy, the digital economy.... In this century, the source of sustainable competitiveness will be the ability to create, disseminate and rapidly exploit knowledge. Knowledge has, of course, been of vital economic importance, but the scale of the knowledge revolution we are now witnessing marks out the new economy as something different in kind from anything that has gone before." *8
May I, at this stage, inform you of a very important meeting of the Global Coalition for Africa* 9 which took place in Gaborone, Botswana, from October 25 - 26, 2001. The main purpose of this meeting was to deliberate on the issue of the Role of the Private Sector as Key to African Development. *10. Apart from the main issue paper on the above subject, discussions in plenary were organised around the following subjects or sub-themes: (a) Overview of the Private Sector in Africa. (b) The Role of Governments. (c) Responsibilities of the Private Sector. (d) Support of External Partners. (e) Future Priorities of the GCA and Concluding Discussions.
13 It was during this meeting that I spoke very openly and frankly to the African and Western leaders about the issue of globalization.*11 I am very happy that I did so because I received very frank and candid reactions from President Museveni of Uganda, Deputy President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, the Prime Minister of Namibia and a representative of the American government. I lamented the fact that although the world was now more than ten years old, since the end of the Cold War, but it is only Africa, among all the nations of the world, which had not realized that fact. Like an Ostrich, we continue to bury our heads in the sand and operate in the same old ways as we have done before. We in Africa have not yet realized that the so-called Global Information Infrastructure, a network of networks that transmits messages and images at the speed of light and on every continent, has the potential, ultimately, to link all human knowledge. Its creation is so revolutionary and the changes it has wrought are so vast that even those experts in the West who have worked on it for years cannot predict its full impact.
This revolution is being fuelled by three key drivers. First, the explosion of scientific and technical knowledge. The three cornerstones of the information age are the computer, the telephone and the television. Although these three items are not the whole technological story, but they are the ones that stand out the most. Their ubiquity is aided or propelled by digitalization in general and the Internet in particular. Nowadays, virtually everything - voices on telephones, pictures on screens, even management decisions - can be converted into ones and zeroes and then stored or transmitted. Indeed, if there is such a thing as a universal language, it is not English, but binary: a Chinese computer speaks exactly the same language as a Spanish one, as well as the same one as a Spanish digital phone. The World Wide Web not only allows people to access a vast storehouse of information from anywhere in the world but also allows all sorts of business to become borderless.
"The Internet will change how people live, work, play and learn. The Industrial Revolution brought together people with machines in factories, and the Internet Revolution will bring together people with knowledge and information in virtual companies.... It will promote globalization at an incredible pace. But instead of happening over 100 years like the Industrial Revolution, it will happen over seven years." *12
But people have concentrated so much on the Internet that it has tended obscure another very important spin-off from the telephone-television-computer triumvirate that might end up having a greater effect on globalization: the mobile phone. If the drop in
14 telephone prices and the development of the Internet has all been about the "death of distance", then the spread of mobile phones might be said to herald the "conquest of location." Increasingly, the mobile-phone industry is going not just digital but high-speed digital with Internet access. The next few years will see the matings of three devices - mobile telephones, computers and personal organizers - in order to create a single hand held device.
The second factor fuelling this revolution is the success of the western world in opening up the global market, allowing knowledge - and the capital and skills needed to exploit it - to flow freely across the borders. This is what some economists have described as the all-devouring hurricane of capitalism. The free-flowing capital markets makes it easier for companies in even the most out-of-the-way places to buy new technology, which in turn makes it easier to move capital to similarly obscure places. And another key component of this is management - by which we mean the spread of common management methods, the growth of the management industry of consultants and business schools, and the development of a new cadre of professional multinational manager - which alerts companies to the clever ways in which they can use capital and technology. Companies that organise themselves better than their rivals do soon expand beyond their national borders, and in so doing put pressure on less cosmopolitan companies to follow suit or risk annihilation, and so the circle continues.
In other words, the engine which drives globalization is when politicians stop interfering with the operations of the free-exchange market capitalism in which a wide variety of commercial forces such as the Internet, the foreign exchange market, mergers and acquisitions, and foreign direct investment are allowed freely into play. Technology, the capital markets, and management can only neatly blend together if there is no government interference in their operations. One thing is already quite clear. The changes flowing from the digital revolution have not been, and will not be, planned by governments - the massive, sprawling growth of the Internet is testament to that. Governments can still play some vital role - not directing, but in enabling change. They can encourage the use of information and communication technologies in school education and more widely in life-long learning. Governments should take IT into communities, for examples, through libraries, enabling it to be accessed by people in society who might not otherwise have the opportunity, including the elderly, unemployed and disabled. Also, governments should promote the use of IT by businesses, fostering competitiveness and the development of new products and services, and planning legislation on secure electronic commerce to increase business and consumer confidence
15 in electronic transactions. Unless these measures are taken by governments, the IT age could divide society, if not the world, into information 'haves' and 'have nots.' In our quest to make this global phenomenon of the digital revolution and ipso facto electronic commerce into a powerful agent for global economic growth, we should be mindful of the warning by President Museveni of Uganda of promoting a negative parasitic globalization. He firmly believes, and rightly so, that what Africa needs at the moment, more than anything else, is market access of her products into the industrialized countries' markets. Also, he believes that in this way, apart from this trade being of mutual benefit to both parties, Africa will be able to somewhat liberate Europeans from their excessive burden of agricultural subsidies. For instance, it is estimated that the current subsidies paid by European governments to prop up agriculture for their farmers are about US $361 billion.
The third factor driving this new system of globalization is the ability, through modern technologies, to codify that knowledge in a common digital language that can be manipulated, assessed and communicated at high speed. This is the so-called "wired - world" in which cyberspace speaks out.
(3) HOW THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN AFRICA MUST CHANGE
I have just given a slight indication above how the role of government has been rendered extremely minimal by the new digital global revolution. This is because the driving idea behind globalization, as we have seen above, is free-market capitalism - the more you let market forces rule and the more you open your economy to free trade and competition, the more efficient and flourishing your economy will be. Globalization means the spread of free-market capitalism to virtually every country in the world. Therefore, globalization also has its own set of economic rules - rules that revolve around opening, deregulating and privatizing your economy in order to make it more competitive and attractive to foreign investment. That is why every government in Africa must, of necessity, privatize the telecommunications sector because this sector is the first and most fundamental requirement which demands that efficient and cheap telecommunication costs is the sine qua non for a successful and thriving economy. The same applies to the energy sector. As long as the state continues to control telecommunications and electricity sectors of the economy, that country's development will inevitably continue to lag behind, and the talk of poverty eradication in such a society will remain a pipe dream, let alone any dream of attracting direct foreign investment.
16
In other words, what is even more significant is that a talk in such a country of attracting foreign direct investment will fall on deaf ears. For instance, in 1975, at the height of the Cold War when almost every country, especially in the Third World, talked about socialism and state control of the so-called commanding heights of the economy, only 8 percent of countries world-wide had liberal, free-market capital regimes, and foreign direct investment at the time totaled only US $23 billion. By 1997, the number of countries with liberal economic regimes after the end of the Cold War constituted 28 percent and foreign direct investment totaled US $ 644!*13
So, it is quite clear that as globalization deepens, new problems of undertaking national development in the context of an integrated world economy will become the main economic issue in the future. Even more than for previous generations, open market economies will be the rule. And whereas previous international policy issues resolved around trade policy which is still very important to the Third World - the next generation will have to devote more attention to determining the effects of international capital movements, migration, and technology transfer.
There were also a lot of discussions between the 1970's and 1980's about the establishment of a New International Economic Order and other dependency thinking. But these ideas are now passe. As we have pointed above, however, there will be more controversy and intense discussion over whether globalization benefits the poor countries and whether it creates benefits for poor people within countries. In other words, the question of poverty eradication in Africa, in particular, will still remain the dominant economic issue of the next generation. It will have to sort out the positive and negative impulses resulting from globalization.
It is important to note, in the context of the emerging debate on the role of international multilateral financial and trade organisations. The view has been expressed that:
"Furthermore, because markets, technology, and corporations are global in scope, while the jurisdiction of the nation state is only local, there will be a need for new actions by the World Bank, the IMF, and the World Trade Organisation. As the main constituents of the international public sector, they will have to devise new programmes to ensure that the benefits of global integration are more equally shared, that competitive policy-making is avoided,
17 and that problems of incomplete risk markets are mitigated as international integration becomes ever more complex." *14
This view, however, is very strongly contested and opposed by the increasingly vocal and influential anti-globalization movement in Europe and the United States. Their argument, briefly stated, is that since we are living in the era of corporate-led and corporate-driven globalization, these transnational corporations and their allies, the IMF, the World Bank and the W.T.O., cannot build an inclusive world - their policies are in fact throwing petrol on the fires of inequity. They also further argue that the West recognizes, quite correctly, that the combination of debt plus structural adjustment plus massive privatization is a far more efficient instrument than colonialism ever was for keeping countries in line. I mention these views simply to stress the fact that they must be addressed if resentment and suspicion in Africa about globalization is to be reduced or answered adequately.
(4). THE EFFECTS ON ETHNIC CONFLICT:
It has become clear that globalization "pushes down - it creates new demands and also new possibilities for regenerating local identities." *15 This is because it has led to widened horizons, greater interdependence, and increased awareness of happenings beyond the confines of the community and the nation. It has also encouraged the drive or tendency towards localization - that is, a crystallizing of local or ethnic identities that is in part, a reaction to globalism. Localization represents a demand for greater political, fiscal, and administrative autonomy in a post-cold war geopolitical environment in which the pull of centrifugal forces on states has grown stronger. The assertion of identity and the demand for autonomy are tied to the upsurge of participatory politics that has given many people a voice and provided foci for organisation. Localization trends also reflect the emergence of economic regions comprising linked industrial clusters that have exploited powerful agglomeration economies to enter a virtuous circle of development.
But I should like to point out that localization has not only been due to the push of globalization. It was, in fact, already on the horizon in the late 1980's. Since then, it has moved towards the central foreground, spurred of course by the globalization phenomenon. Localization is not exclusively a result of a change in the international political climate following the end of the Cold War. In many countries it stems from acute dissatisfaction with the central Government's ability to maintain law and order and to fulfil its promises to raise income, increase the number of jobs, and provide public
18 services. Ethnic divisions, widening regional income disparities, and deepening inequalities between skilled and unskilled workers have at times fanned the discontent, while the rise of national political consciousness and activities has opened avenues for articulating demands for local autonomy.
FOOTNOTES:
1. See the quotation by Susan George on the inside flap cover of the book "Anti- Capitalism", published by Bookmarks Publications, London, 2001.
2. See the article by Emma Birchman, Op.cit., p.1
3. George Soros; "Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism," New York: Public Affairs, 2000, p. xi.
4. Anne Leer: "Masters of the Wired World,"London, Redwood Books, Trowbridge, Wiltshire, U.K., 1999.
5. David C. Korten: "When Corporations Rule the World," Published 2001 in the U.S.A. by Kumarian Press, Inc., and Berrett - Koehler Publishers, Inc.
6. There is no proper and universally accepted definition of the term "International Community." It is however, used loosely to refer to the five Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council or to the G8 members of the industrialized countries of the West and Russia. But strictly speaking, it is the United States of America that calls the shots, particularly in the post-Cold War world.
7. Gerald M. Meier and Joseph E. Stiglitz: "Frontiers of Development Economics," A co-publication of the World Bank and Oxford University Press, New York and Washington D.C., 2000, p. 235.
8. See Anne Leer, Op.cit., p. viii.
9. The importance of the Global Coalition for Africa lies in the following factors: It is the only high-level intergovernmental forum in which the North-South dialogue now takes place in the world. (It will be recalled that the North-South Dialogue was set up by the United Nations in the 1960's as a forum in which the developed industrialized countries of the North held high-level negotiations on world economic development issues with their counterparts from the developing South ie. Africa, Asia and Latin America. Hence the name the North-South Dialogue. It sort of fizzled out or died with the end of the Cold War, and was replaced with the GCA. The first original Co-Chairpersons were Robert McNamara, from the USA and former President of the World Bank and Secretary for Defence under President J.F. Kennedy; Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, the late President of Tanzania;
19 Sir Ketumile Masire, former President of Botswana; and Jan Pronk, now Minister of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment, the Netherlands). Secondly, it is the only forum which brings African issues to the attention of the G-8. Thirdly, attendance at its meetings is by personal invitation only. Fourth, its other functions can be found in the Internet or its many brochures. I was invited to attend this GCA plenary meeting in my capacity as the Vice-Chairman of ARI and its Commissioner for Peace and Governance and also as an old member of the UN sponsored North-South Dialogue. In other words, my portfolio in the African Renaissance Institute of Conflict Resolution is not only a priority area of activity for the G.C.A. but also for newly re-named New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD). The African Heads of State who were invited were: H.E. Festus Mogae of Botswana, H.E. Thabo Mbeki of South Africa (who was represented by Deputy President Jacob Zuma), H.E. Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria who was represented by a Minister, H.E. Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, H.E. Fredrick Chiluba of Zambia and H.E. Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, and the Prime Minister of Namibia.
10. See an Issue Paper prepared by the Secretariat of the Global Coalition for Africa entitled: "The Private Sector: Key to African Development." G.C.A. Document/Plenary/no/02/10/2001
11. After the opening of the meeting by President Mogae of Botswana, I was called upon by the Chair to be the first speaker in order to set the tone for the subsequent discussions. In my intervention, I talked of the importance of globalization which has emerged since the end of the Cold War as the only defining policy in international relations. I said that although the world is now ten years old since the end of the Cold War, we in Africa were the last to realize that such a change had taken place. We are always behind the rest of the world in these matters and it only goes to prove Africa's backwardness. I said that in Africa, the majority of our people are so poor that they still live on less that US cents 65 per day - and not on less than $1 a day as President Mogae had said in his opening statement. I said that both very little foreign direct investment and foreign equity investment finds its way into Africa. No amount of assurance by African leaders about attracting foreign investment has had any impact. I gave the statistical examples of huge amount of FDI moving around the world - a figure of over US $ 500 billion and yet only about US $ 4.5 billion has found its way into South Africa and about US $1 billion has gone to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. I ended my presentation by informing the African leaders that the three engines which drive globalization are technology, the capital markets, and management. However, within the technological engine, the holy trinity which stand out the most are the computer, the telephone and the television. In other words, telecommunications is key to the new revolution in information technology, and its ubiquity would mean very little without digitalization in general and the internet in particular. It was such a pity that all the telephones in Manhattan island in New York city are more than the entire telephone network in the whole continent of Africa, most of which is concentrated in South Africa anyway.
20
12. Thomas Friedman: "The Internet Wars," The New York Times, April 11, 1998.
13. These were basically World Bank statistics quoted in Thomas Friedman: "The Lexus and the Live Tree," Anchor Books, 2000, p.9
14. Meier and Stiglitz, Op.cit., p.33 15. See Anthony Giddens: "The Third Way - The Renewal of Social Democracy," Cambridge, U.K., Policy, Press, 1998, p.31
DATE: 22ND JANUARY 2002
21 b. Summary of Discussion
1. Globalisation and democracy are two sides of the same coin. This is the nature of the world since it has changed from being a polarised world during the cold war. Africa is not prepared for the New World Order. The Global Coalition for Africa (GCA) is a good way of engaging the West. Issues of globalisation are very complex and no one single leader will be able to answer all the questions. GCA is an important vehicle to attain our objectives if we want to be part of this world. The whole communication system in Africa is so tiny it is only equivalent to a single city in the USA.
2. Globalisation is inevitable and we face its outcomes daily. We know the consequences of this type of phenomena. Should we succumb to it or should we be asking questions?
3. Globalisation is a phenomenon we should understand well and make it work for us – and protect ourselves against the negative aspects of it. We should study it carefully but also insist that decisions continue to be made locally rather than far away from the people they effect. There must be adherence to human rights to protect us against some of the negative aspects of globalisation.
4. The State in Africa has been privatised to a certain extent. Some African rulers do not distinguish between private and public property. However, September 11 has made them realise that the world has changed and they must also change.
22 2. Self-determination: the international experience a. Paper presented by Marc Weller
Terms of Reference
I have been asked to address the meaning of the concept of self-determination in international law. I am then instructed to consider the means of achieving self- determination. Finally, I am invited to address recent experiences, including Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea and East Timor. Throughout, I have assumed that this is not meant to be an abstract academic paper, but instead a practical instrument that can help shape the understanding of the international legal aspects of self-determination issues of participants in a realistic way. To this end, I have placed the observations that follow directly into the context of the recent precedents, rather than addressing them separately.
Structure
I. The Meaning of the Concept of Self-Determination A. A concept with multiple meanings B. Self-determination and secession C. Colonial self-determination D. Constitutional self-determination E. Effective entities F. New Claims G. Application to Sudan
II. The Means of Achieving Self-Determination A. Process B. The level of entitlement C. The possibility of struggle D. Types of Settlement
III. Annex: Materials on Standards and Recent Practice A. Resolution 1515 B. Resolution 1541 C. Resolution 2625 D. EU documents on Yugoslavia E. Chechen agreement
23 Executive Summary
This document argues that there are now two substantive sources of entitlements to self- determination in the sense of a right to unilateral opposed secession. In addition to the traditional colonial status, the second entitlement can be best described as constitutional self-determination. Constitutional self-determination can be based on express constitutional provisions, on a constitutional grant made, for instance in an internal or internationalized peace settlement, and on an informal acceptance of the right of a territory to hold a referendum. As colonial self-determination is not fully applicable to the situation in southern Sudan, constitutional self-determination would appear to be a useful tool to address this case. In the second part of the presentation, the substantive rights held by self-determination entities are considered, along with the processes that should be followed in implementing these rights.
I. The Meaning of the Concept of Self-Determination International law is made by governments. Governments normally see it as their first duty to preserve the territorial integrity and unity of the state they claim to represent. Hence, it comes as no surprise that the international legal concept of self-determination has been framed in a very restrictive way. This part of the paper first analyzes the traditional view of the meaning of the right of self-determination, before turning to some more recent developments.
A. A concept with multiple meanings This paper addresses self-determination as the right of a people freely to determine its political, economic and social status, including the question of independence or association or integration with another state. However, to avoid confusion, it might be appropriate to distinguish at the outset the other layers of meaning that are generally attributed to the term self-determination:
• Self-determination as an individual right: Self-determination is not only a right exercised by peoples or groups. It is also a human right of individuals. Hence, individuals are entitled to political participation in the political, economic or cultural system of their state.
• Self-determination as a group right: Self-determination is also a right that can be invoked by certain groups, such as national minorities. In this sense, self- determination is congruent with minority rights, including possibly the right to limited autonomy for minorities that constitute a local majority.
24 • Self-determination and indigenous peoples: Indigenous populations tend to claim a particularly strong bond with certain territorial regions. In addition to minority rights, this will imply a very strong claim to cultural and perhaps also political autonomy. In short, while self-determination also attracts legal consequences in the different contexts given above, only self-determination of peoples is associated with a right to secession. It is in this sense that self-determination will be considered in this outline paper. In this context, a further distinction must be drawn at the outset. Self-determination of peoples implies a right unilaterally to initiate a change in the status of a territory through an act of will of the population of that entire territory. This exercise of will, mainly manifested through a referendum, must be given effect by central authorities that have maintained effective control over the territory in question up to that point. This function of the referendum is therefore different, and needs to be distinguished, from a referendum held to confirm a change in more limited slices of territory agreed by existing sovereign. That is to say, the transfer of territory from one state to another through cession should only be effected if supported through a referendum by the population, or at least through a decision that has been fully democratically legitimized. However, this kind of ‘self- determination’ ratifies the decision of the states involved, it does not replace that decision. Genuine self-determination of peoples, on the other hand, is in itself constitutive of a claim to change the status of an entire territory, mostly in favour of outright independence. Where one state joins another (the new German federal states of the former GDR) a democratic manifestation of will is also required, either through parliamentary assent or through a referendum. The same holds true, at least in recent practice, where an existing state dissolves into constituent parts. This occurred when Czechoslovakia split into two separate states after an agreement to that effect had been obtained in parliament. (The cases of the USSR and the SFRY are different, as the dissolution occurred as a matter of fact, in the absence of an advance decision by the central governments to this effect. They will be considered in greater detail below). The manifestation of an act of will of the population is also often necessary where a government agrees to a secession or dissolution of a state. For example, when Ethiopia decided to provide for the option of independence for Eritrea after a prolonged ethnic and civil conflict, the exercise of that option required an act of self-determination on the part of the people of Eritrea to become effective. Again, however, there remains a crucial difference. The exercise of the will of the population followed on from a previous agreement by the central government that a referendum could be held and that its results
25 would be respected. Self-determination was not necessarily the trigger for this process at the outset. Instead, the exercise of self-determination flowed from a previous, voluntary decision of the government or central state, also reflected in a provision of the new Ethiopian constitution. A change in the status of an entire territory is therefore always possible, provided this is done with the consent of all involved, including the central government. Issues of legal interest only concern the process through which this decision is implemented and problems of state succession, i.e., the continuity or otherwise of the international legal right and obligations for the state in question. In contrast, the essence of the traditional right of self-determination is that it in itself constitutes a valid basis for a claim to secede, irrespective of the wishes of the central government. Therefore, one is really talking about a right to unilateral and if necessary opposed secession. Such a right is perceived to be very dangerous by governments, as it can be exercised autonomously from their consent and control. Hence, it is not surprising that the right to self-determination in the sense of unilateral and opposed secession has been defined very restrictively. In principle, governments have only admitted the right in the very specific context of decolonization. That is to say, this aggressive right (from the perspective of the central state) was only granted in circumstances which in view of preponderant opinion of states were the outgrowth of unlawful and repellent practices by others. By the late 1950s and early 1960s, when self-determination was translated from a political principle into a legal right, it was felt that such a right should be applied to consequences of colonialism, alien occupation and racist regimes. B. Self-determination and unilateral opposed secession The right to opposed unilateral secession stands in obvious tension with the claim to territorial integrity and unity of existing states. Governments have enshrined this claim in countless international declarations and other instruments. One might ask whether a secession that is not covered by the exceptional right to colonial self-determination amounts to an internationally unlawful act. This, for example, was the view (wrongly) taken by the rump-Yugoslavia in relation to Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro. The consequence of this view would be that an entity that succeeds in secession would be an unlawful entity. Unlawful entities are well known in international law. These are entities that have come into being in violation of essential rules of the international community as a whole, such as the prohibition of the use of force by states (Northern Cyprus), the right to self-
26 determination (Southern Rhodesia after UDI), the prohibition of apartheid (the so-called Banthustans), or the prohibition of genocide and ethnic cleansing (the Srpska Republic and Herzeg Bosna). Such entities may display the objective criteria of statehood of territory, population and government. However, this will not trigger the consequence of statehood that would ordinarily obtain. Instead, these entities are non-states and all states may be under an obligation not to recognize them as states or to assist them in maintaining their illegal status. However, practice shows that opposed unilateral secession in itself is not internationally unlawful, at least not to that extent. Hence, an entity that manages to secede and to maintain itself effectively can over time obtain statehood, and have this fact confirmed through international recognition, even if the central government objects. However, in its attempts to obtain statehood, the entity is not legally privileged (see below). Hence, the central state retains the freedom to forcibly incorporate the entity if it can manage to do so until the point in time when it has demonstrated its effectiveness to the extent necessary for statehood. One might say that Somaliland is at present in such a state of legal uncertainty. Biafra and Katanga are examples of entities that were forcibly re- incorporated, without much international opposition. Chechnya, which will be considered at greater length below, was also subjected to an armed re-incorporation. It is by way of a lack of international legal protection of its status that an ‘effective entity’ differs greatly from a ‘self-determination entity’. The latter is internationally privileged long before it obtains effective independence. Indeed, it is the essence of the right of self- determination to ensure that a self-determination entity can freely exercise the option of independence if it so wishes. C. Colonial self-determination The right of colonial self-determination is now a core part of international law and enjoys a status that is legally superior to other international norms (ius cogens). However, it is applied only to colonial and non-self-governing territories, of which there are practically none left.
There is no formal definition of what constitutes a colonial territory. However, as a rule of thumb it only includes those territories that one would intuitively recognize as such. These are territories that were forcibly acquired by a racially distinct metropolitan power divided by an ocean during the time of imperialism and subjected to a colonial regime for the purposes of economic exploitation. Many other populations that feel that they, too, have been subjected to colonialism, are excluded. For example, Chechnya argued that it was forcibly incorporated into Russia and colonially exploited. Some politicians in
27 Kosovo were tempted to make a similar argument in relation to Serbia. However, none of these claims were successful.
In addition to genuine colonies, it is accepted that peoples living under alien occupation (Palestine) and under racist regimes (formerly South Africa) are entitled to the right of self-determination. The same applies to ‘secondary’ colonies. These are entities that were entitled to colonial self-determination. However, when they were at the point of administering the act of self-determination, they were incorporated into another state. Eastern Timor and Western Sahara are the two principal examples of this phenomenon. The recent holding of a referendum in Eastern Timor and its move to independence are therefore an example of colonial self-determination in the classical sense, rather than constitutional self-determination.
While self-determination is an activist right that is intended to overcome the evils of colonialism, it is in fact administered in a way that is consistent with the administrative practices of the colonizers. For, the definition of the entity that is entitled to exercise the right of self-determination is in itself a product of colonial administration. Hence, self- determination does not aim to restore ethnic or tribal links amongst populations that were artificially divided by the colonizers. Instead, the ‘people’ entitled to self-determination are those who happen to live within the colonial boundaries drawn by the colonial powers.
Similarly, the International Court of Justice confirmed in relation to the Western Sahara and Morocco that links between the colony and other local states or entities that existed before colonialism will not be restored—they are not of a kind that could displace the right to separate identity that was actually manufactured through the process of colonial administration. Most strikingly this was also affirmed in relation to the island of Timor. Once Portugal withdrew from Eastern Timor, Indonesia was not legally entitled to ‘reunify’ the island under its own rule. Instead, its occupation of the island was internationally opposed, until Indonesia consented to the holding of a referendum on genuine self-determination. That referendum was strongly in favour of independence and its consequences are now being implemented with the assistance of an international peace-keeping/enforcement mission. While some might regard this practice of retaining ‘artificial’ colonial boundaries as reprehensible, it has been accepted by the African states upon independence. In fact, it has been fiercely defended by them. This principle of uti-possidetis has been described by the international Court of Justice as follows:
28
... [T]he principle of uti possidetis seems to have been first invoked and applied in Spanish America, inasmuch as this was the continent which first witnessed the phenomenon of decolonization involving the formation of a number of sovereign States on territory formerly belonging to a single metropolitan State. Nevertheless, the principle is not a special rule which pertains solely to one specific system of international law. It is a general principle, which is logically connected with the phenomenon of the obtaining of independence, wherever it occurs. Its obvious purpose is to prevent the independence and stability of new States being endangered by fratricidal struggles provoked by the challenging of frontiers following the withdrawal of the administering power.
21. It was for this reason that, as soon as the phenomenon of decolonization characteristic of the situation in Spanish America in the 19th century subsequently appeared in Africa in the 20th century, the principle of uti possidetis, in the sense described above, fell to be applied. The fact that the new African States have respected the administrative boundaries and frontiers established by the colonial powers must be seen not as a mere practice contributing to the gradual emergence of a principle of customary international law, limited in its impact to the African continent as it had previously been to Spanish America, but as the application in Africa of a rule of general scope. 22. The elements of uti possidetis were latent in the many declarations made by African leaders in the dawn of independence. These declarations confirmed the maintenance of the territorial status quo at the time of independence, and stated the principle of respect both for the frontiers deriving from international agreements, and for those resulting from mere internal administrative divisions. The Charter of the Organization of African Unity did not ignore the principle of uti possidetis, but made only indirect reference to it in Article 3, according to which member States solemnly affirm the principle of respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every State. However, at their first summit conference after the creation of the Organization of African Unity, the African Heads of State, in their Resolution mentioned above (AGH/Res. 16 (I)), adopted in Cairo in July 1964, deliberately defined and stressed the principle of uti possidetis juris contained only in an implicit sense in the Charter of their organization. 23. There are several different aspects to this principle, in its well known application in Spanish America. The first aspect, emphasized by the Latin genitive juris, is found in the pre-eminence accorded to legal title over effective possession as a basis of
29 sovereignty. It purpose, at the time of the achievement of independence by the former Spanish colonies of America, was to scotch any designs which non-American colonizing metropolitan State to one division or another, but which were still uninhabited or unexplored. However, there is more to the principle of uti possidetis that this particular aspect. The essence of the principle lies in its primary aim of securing respect for the territorial boundaries that moment when independence is achieved. Such territorial boundaries might be no more than delimitations between different administrative divisions or colonies all subject to the same sovereign. In that case, the application of the principle of uti possidetis resulted in administrative boundaries being transformed into international frontiers in the full sense of the term. This is true both of the States which took shape in the regions of South America which were dependent on the Spanish Crown, and of the States Parties to the present case, which took shape within the vast territories of French West Africa. Uti possidetis, as a principle which upgraded former administrative delimitations, established during the colonial period, to international frontiers, is therefore a principle of a general kind which is logically connected with this form of decolonization wherever it occurs. 24. The territorial boundaries which have to be respected may also derive from an international frontier which previously divided a colony of one State from a colony of another, or indeed a colonial territory from the territory of an independent State, or one which was under protectorate, but had retained its international personality. There is no doubt that the obligation to respect pre-existing international frontiers in the event of a State succession derives from a general rule of international law, whether or not the rule is expressed in the formula uti possidetis. Hence, the numerous solemn affirmations of the intangibility of the frontiers existing at the time of the independence of African States, whether made by senior African statesmen or by organs of the Organization of African Unity itself, are evidently declaratory rather than constitutive: they recognize and confirm an existing principle, and do not seek to consecrate a new principle or the extension to Africa of a rule previously applied only in another continent. 25. However, it may be wondered how the time-hallowed principle has been able to withstand the new approaches to international law as expressed in Africa, where the successive attainment of independence and the emergence of new States have been accompanied by a certain questioning of traditional international law. At first sight this principle conflicts outright with another one, the right of peoples to self- determination. In fact, however, the maintenance of the territorial status quo in Africa is often seen as the wisest course, to preserve what has been achieved by peoples who
30 have struggled for their independence, and to avoid a disruption which would deprive the continent of the gains achieved by much sacrifice. The essential requirement of stability in order to survive, to develop and gradually to consolidate their independence in all fields, have induced African States judiciously to consent to the respecting of colonial frontiers, and to take account of it in the interpretation of the principle of self-determination of peoples. 26. Thus the principle of uti possidetis has kept its place among the most important legal principles, despite the apparent contradiction which explained its coexistence alongside the new norms. Indeed it was by deliberate choice that African States selected, among all the classic principles, that of uti possidetis. This remains an undeniable fact. In the light of the foregoing remarks, it is clear that the applicability of uti possidetis in the present case cannot be challenged merely because in 1960, the year when Mali and Burkina Faso achieved independence, the Organization of African Unity which was to proclaim this principle did not yet exist, and the above- mentioned resolution calling for respect for the pre-existing frontiers dates only from 1964. Burkina Faso/Mali Frontier Dispute, Merits, 1986 ICJ 564.
Another restriction relates to the fact that colonial self-determination is an ‘act’ which occurs only once, and not a process. Hence, once a colonial territory had exercised the option of independence or integration (the exception being, theoretically, association), the right to self-determination would have expired. It is not available to ethnic entities within the self-determination unit that may feel that they should have had the option of secession from secession. The present dispute involving Comores and Mayotte may serve as an example, as does the following extract from a submission to the United Nations by Sri Lanka:
1. Article 1 of the Covenant sets forth the right to self-determination. 2. Sri Lanka regained her independence from colonial rule in 1948 and became a member of the United Nations in 1955, subscribing to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations. It is the position of the Government of Sri Lanka that the words "the right to self-determination" appearing in this article apply only to people under alien and foreign domination and these words do not apply to sovereign independent states or to a section of a people or nation. It is well recognized in international law that the principle of self-determination cannot be construed as authorizing any action which would dismember or impair totally or in part the territorial integrity or political unity of sovereign and independent States. This article
31 of the Covenant cannot therefore be interpreted to connote the recognition of the dismemberment and fragmentation on ethnic and religious grounds. Such an interpretation would clearly be contrary, inter alia, to General Assembly Resolution 2526 (XXV) on the Declaration of Principles of International Law and incompatible with the purposes and principles of the Charter. International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Third periodic reports of States parties due in 1991, Addendum, Report Submitted by Sri Lanka, 18 July 1994, CCPR/C/70/Add.6, 27 September 1994.
An exception to this rule would relate to a self-determination entity that decides to associate, but not integrate, with another state, instead of opting for independence. Through association, the self-determination status of the entity is retained, or one might say, it is transformed into a case of constitutional self-determination. D. Constitutional self-determination Constitutional self-determination is a fairly new phenomenon. It is only now being fully analyzed by international legal scholars. However, the reality of this right must not be overlooked. The crucial difference between colonial and constitutional self-determination lies in the fact that the former case, the right to secession is based directly in international law. In the latter, the claim to self-determination is derived from a constitutional arrangement and establishes a separate legal personality for component parts of the overall state. International law only takes note of these features of domestic constitutional law, and gives effect to them. It is not constitutive of the claim to self-determination. It is possible to distinguish three different types of constitutional self-determination:
• Express self-determination status
• Granted self-determination status
• Implied self-determination status It will be convenient to introduce each of these in turn. 1. Express self-determination status Some constitutions will confirm that the overall state is composed of entities that retain at least the seeds of original sovereignty. It will confirm a right to self-determination and sometimes expressly to secession appertaining to federal-type units of the state. The broadest example of this kind is the new Ethiopian constitution, which affirms the right to
32 self-determination to all nations and nationalities. The other two principal examples are the former Soviet Union and the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. However, in both cases the actualization of that right posed certain problems. It was resisted by the central governments, which argued, in both cases, that secession would only be available if all of the other constituent units consented and if the overall parliament and central government were in favour. The problem in relation to the Baltic republics and the USSR were given an additional dimension, due to the view of many Western states that they have been forcibly and unlawfully incorporated. It was only resolved when the USSR as a whole collapsed in 1991 and all of the constituent republic obtained independence. The crisis in the former Yugoslavia was, of course, even more dramatic. The SFRY constitution of 1974 had provided:
The nations of Yugoslavia, proceeding from the right of every nation to self-determination, including the right to secession, on the basis of their will freely expressed in the common struggle of all nations and nationalities in the National Liberation War and Socialist Revolution, and in conformity with their historic aspirations, aware that further consolidation of their brotherhood and unity is in the common interest, have, together with the nationalities with which they live, united in a federal republic of free and equal nations and nationalities and founded a socialist federal community of working people--the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, ... [Constitution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Basic Principles, Section I.]
The central authorities also argued in this case that secession could not be obtained unilaterally. When they proceeded to answer the declarations of independence of Slovenia and Croatia of 25/6 June 1991 with the use of force, the international community, led by the EU, took a somewhat ambivalent step. While it failed to recognize the two entities until January 1992, it nevertheless adopted the following view a few weeks after the declarations of independence:
EPC Statement on Yugoslavia, 27 August 1991: The European Community and its member States are dismayed at the increasing violence in Croatia. They remind those responsible for the violence of their determination never to recognize changes of frontiers which have not been brought about by peaceful means and by agreement. ... The Community and its member States call on the Federal Presidency to put an immediate end to this illegal use of the forces on its command.
In short, the EU took the view that both entities were either already states, or entitled to become states and in possession of pre-state rights. These were the right to territorial integrity and unity and the protection from the use of force of the central government. The EU then attempted unsuccessfully to negotiate an orderly secession. When this failed, it declared, through the medium of its Badinter arbitration/advisory commission that the entire Yugoslav federation was in a process of dissolution. Hence, the individual
33 republics that wished independence would obtain it unilaterally, provided they complied with a number of requirements, including the holding of a free and fair referendum. The Badinter commission also addressed the problem of secession from secession. It denied the claim of mainly Serb inhabited areas of Croatia and Bosnia Herzegovina to secede from those two newly emerging states. Instead, the Commission insisted on the application of the uti possidetis doctrine. Minority groups were offered the protection of minority rights and, where they constituted local majorities, autonomy instead of independence. The international community has applied the doctrine of constitutional self-determination very restrictively. It has denied such a claim to Chechnya. According to the 1993 constitution of the Russian Federation, Chechnya had been promoted to the status of a Federal Republic in that newly independent state. Nevertheless, this status was not one derived from original sovereignty of the federal entities. Instead, it was one derived from a limited grant of central authority, which left sovereignty vested in the overall Federation. The Constitution provided:
We, the multi-ethnic people of the Russian Federation, united by our common destiny of our land, seeking to advance human rights and freedoms and promote civil peace and accord, preserving a historically established state unity, guided by universally recognized principles of equality and self-determination of peoples, ... renewing the sovereign statehood of Russia, ... Article 3.1. The multi-ethnic people of the Russian Federation shall be the bearer of its sovereignty and the sole source of authority in the Russian Federation. Article 4.1. The sovereignty of the Russian Federation shall extend to its entire territory. Article 66.5. The status of a member of the Russian Federation may be altered by the mutual consent of the Russian Federation and the member[s?] of the Russian Federation in accordance with a federal constitutional law.
Hence, in stark contrast to the response of the EU to the Yugoslav crisis, the EU confirmed the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, instead of the claimed rights of Chechnia, for example in the following Declaration of the EU presidency on the behalf of the Union of 18 January 1995:
The European Union is following the continuing fighting in Chechnya with the greatest concern. The promised ceasefires are not having any effect on the ground. Serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law are continuing. The European Union strongly deplores the large number of victims and the suffering being inflicted on the civilian population. The European Union, which attaches importance to its relations with Russian and is concerned in this regard at the possible consequences of the crisis, would stress that these relations must be based on the principles jointly supported by the United Nations and the OSCE as confirmed in the Partnership Agreement. The European Union supports the declaration by the OSCE Presidency at the Permanent Council meeting on 12 January. It welcomes the fact that Russia has accepted OSCE assistance in the process of finding a solution to the crisis and that Russia is prepared to devote further discussion to ways and means of ensuring practical cooperation with the emissary of the OSCE Presidency on the spot. The Union hopes
34 very much that the Russian authorities will immediately give effect to the measures envisaged in the OSCE President's declaration of 12 January, to which Russia agreed. The European Union would again urge strongly that there should be an immediate cessation of hostilities in order to facilitate the bringing of humanitarian aid to the population and allow negotiations to begin without delay. The European Union takes note in this connection of the proposal made by the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. It calls for a peaceful settlement to the conflict which respects the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation.
When Russia forcibly reincorportated Chechnia some years later, the international community condemned the excessive brutality of the venture and human rights abuses. However, there was little or no support for the suggestion that Chechnia had a claim to independence, notwithstanding the cease-fire agreement of 1996, to which reference will be made below.
Finally, Kosovo attempted to argue that its status had been that of a Yugoslav republic, or at least that of a quasi republic. However, as Kosovo was also an autonomous territory within the Yugoslav Republic of Serbia, its federal status, acknowledged in the 1974 SFRY constitution, was seemed to be less than that of the republics proper, which had their constitutional claim to self-determination internationally supported. Hence, even after the armed conflict involving NATO and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the United Nations committed itself to the continuing territorial integrity of the FRY.
While these three cases do not augur well for a wide definition of an express constitutional self-determination status, the Yugoslav precedents have had some impact on the attempts to negotiate settlements in a number of other secessionist conflicts. The option of a federal-type solution has proven unacceptable to a number of central governments. They presume that the granting of a federal status to an entity in exchange for a cessation of the conflict will inevitably be the first step to an invocation of constitutional self-determination and to eventual independence.
2. Granted self-determination status Another type of internally generated self-determination status results from an agreement by the central authorities that an entity can exercise this option, even if it is not provided for in the constitution of the overall state. Such a situation obtained in relation to Eritrea, after the change in government in Ethiopia (and before a formal new constitutional was adopted, providing for the right to self-determination to all nations and nationalities in Ethiopia). A formal agreement was established, which granted to Eritrea self- determination status and the right to hold a referendum on independence after the expiry of an interim period. After that referendum confirmed the overwhelming wish of the population to secede, the central authorities implemented this decision.
35 The experience of Chechnya, on the other hand, was less encouraging. In August 1996, Chechnya concluded an agreement with the Russian Federation. That agreement expressly recognized Chechnya’s status as a self-determination entity and foresaw a resolution of the issue according to that principle, and according to international law, by 31 December 2001. However, after alleged Chechen terrorist attacks on Moscow, the Russian Federation unilaterally annulled that agreement and forcibly re-incorporated Chechnya. This example highlights the desirability of seeking to internationalize any agreement granting self-determination status at the point of the termination of a self- determination conflict. There are now a significant number of instruments, generally arrived at with international involvement, that address the self-determination status of an area of conflict. The Northern Ireland agreement confirms that that territory is a self-determination unity, whose status can only be changed on the basis of the wishes of the majority of the wishes of the population. The Bougainville Peace agreement of 30 August 2001 assigns autonomy to Bouganville. However, it also provides for a referendum to be held among Bougainvilleans on the future status of the territory. This referendum is to be held no sooner than ten years and no later than fifteen years after the elections of an autonomous Bougainville government. However, somewhat confusingly, the outcome of the referendum is to be subjected to the approval and final decision-making authority of the national government. The attempt to address the Kosovo conflict through the Rambouillet process also resulted in a formula that is not free of ambiguity. The text, to which Resolution 1244 (1999) of the UN Security Council makes reference, foresees the establishment of an internationalized mechanism that will set up a process for the settlement of the status issue. That process was intended to take account of, inter alia, the ‘will of the people’. The very recent settlement of the southern Philippines, on the other hand, provides merely for a ‘plebiscite’ to confirm autonomy arrangements that are to be implemented in the southern, mainly Muslim parts of that state. There is an express confirmation of the territorial integrity of the Philippines. In some settlements that are at present under negotiation, the increased status of an entity previously seeking secession has been compensated for by a formula that confirms that participation in that arrangements represents the exercise of the right to self- determination. Hence, that right, if it existed before, would have been expended at the time of signing the new arrangement. 3. Implied self-determination status
36 It is also possible to envisage an implied self-determination status. This would be the case where a distinct ‘nation’ or ‘people’ inhabit a clearly constitutionally defined area. Where the central government consents to the holding of a referendum on the issue of secession, or such provision exists according to the constitution, in the absence of an express reference to self-determination, there is an expectation that such a referendum would need to be respected by the central authorities. An example is furnished by the referenda about independence held in Scotland. There does not even exist a written UK constitution. Nevertheless, referenda were arranged with the agreement and cooperation of the central authorities. Had the result been in favour of independence, it is likely that that outcome would have attracted a significant element of international legitimacy. This view was very strongly confirmed by the Canadian Supreme Court in a reference concerning the possible secession of Quebec. Despite that fact that there is no express constitutional self-determination status for Quebec in the Canadian constitution, the Court found that ‘A clear majority vote in Quebec on a clear question in favour of secession would confer democratic legitimacy on the secession initiative which all of the other participants in Confederation would have to recognize.” (But see below on the consequences of such a decision). E. New Claims Some scholars have argued that there now exist new international legal claims to self- determination. The most credible of these would relate to a situation where a distinctly identifiable population inhabiting a territorially (and perhaps constitutionally) defined area are persistently denied political representation in a state. If negotiations to address this situation have been exhaustively attempted, and if they have been frustrated by the central government, it is proposed that the entity in question should be entitled to secede. However, it has to be admitted that this theory is as yet untested. In the closest case that comes to mind (Kosovo), the international community has at least initially insisted on the continued territorial unity of the overall state. A variant of this view would address instances where an entity has suffered actual genocide or ethnic cleansing, or a deliberate campaign to destroy a population by denying to it that which is necessary for its survival (emergency food aid) on the part of the central authorities. In such instances (say northern Iraq?), some scholars argue that the central government should no longer be entitled to invoke the doctrine of territorial unity in relation to that territory.
37 F. Effective Entities Finally, it is necessary to refer to cases where an entity could not lay claim to any self- determination status, be it colonial or constitutional. Most cases of secession or dissolution have occurred with the consent of the relevant central authorities (UAR, Mali Federation, Malaysia-Singapore, Yemen). There are hardly any examples of unilateral opposed secessions that were successful. Biafra and Katanga were focibly re- incorporated, the latter even with the assistance of the United Nations. Secessionist conflicts in many other parts of the world (Kurds, Basques, Kashmir, Burma, Sri Laka, etc) have gone on for decades, some of them for half a century, without a result in favour of secession having been obtained. The case of Bangladesh appears to be truly exceptional, given the special role played by India in that instance. It might be argued that Somaliland constitutes an effective entity. However, that case is as yet unsettled and its status remains precarious until it is confirmed through an internationalized agreement. The hesitancy with which it has been addressed by the international community confirms the caution that is still being exercised in favour of the maintenance of the doctrine of territorial unity. Nevertheless, should its de-facto status be maintained over time, there is nothing that would legally exclude eventual confirmation of statehood, even if Somalia persistently refuses to settle the matter. The outcome of the Kosovo issue is also still open, although there are signs that the international community might be willing to exercise a greater degree of flexibility than may have been eventually envisaged, given the realities on the ground. G. Application to Sudan Sudan was subjected to a condominium agreement of 19 January and 10 July 1899 between Eqypt and the United Kingdom, following upon the ‘re-conquest’ of the territory. The agreement was confirmed on 26 August 1936. The status of the entity as a genuine colonial self-determination unit was confirmed in the Anglo-Egyptian agreement of 12 February 1953. That agreement provided for a transitional period of full self- government “in order to enable the Sudanese people to exercise self-determination in a free and neutral atmosphere”. While one of the possible results could have been integration with Egypt, the option of independence was of course foreseen. The act of self-determination did not, however, take place as envisaged. Instead of a referendum, a declaration by the Sudan constituent assembly/parliament anticipated this event with a declaration of independence, which was immediately accepted by the United Kingdom. While the fully representative nature of this decision in relation to genuine southern participation has been subjected to some doubt, the authoritative nature of this decision was internationally accepted.
38 It has been asserted that the United Kingdom had maintained separate administrative structures for southern Sudan. Some argue that this policy was overturned only shortly before independence, often mentioning the Juba conference of 1947 in that context. However, while there existed for some time a separate policy regarding the south, including the Closed District Ordinances, this was probably not made manifest in a sufficiently firm and formal territorial and administrative division which could undermine the uti possidetis claim to territorial unity of the Sudan at the time of independence. Hence, according to a more rigid view of the classical international law on the subject, it could not be successfully argued that southern Sudan would have been entitled to a separate legal identity as a self-determination entity at the time of independence. The conditioning of support for independence amongst the members of the assembly/parliament from the south can also not be understood as some sort of legally effective reservation that goes beyond the demand for autonomy (which, in fact, it was at the time). Hence, no analogy to association (as opposed to integration) could be established, even if the southern Sudan had had a separate legal identity at the time. The rapid deterioration of relations between North and South upon independence, and the various constitutional arrangements that followed, would require further study before they can be assessed even in this summary form. However, an initial impression would not support the view that the southern status was much improved. The Addis Ababa Agreement of 1972, and the 1973 constitution appear to have confirmed designs for autonomy within a ‘united Sudan’. The IGADD Initiative Declaration of Principles adopted in Nairobi on 20 July 1994 does refer to the “right of self-determination of the people of south Sudan to determine their future status through a referendum” that is to be affirmed. On the other hand, the text also declares that “maintaining unity of the Sudan must be given priority by all parties”, provided certain principles are affirmed. It then defines self-determination “on the basis of federation, autonomy, etc., to the various peoples of the Sudan”. This latter sentence would seem to indicate that the right to self-determination was supposed to be obtained through measures short of independence according to certain principles. Paragraph 4, on the other hand, provides that in case of absence of an agreement on such a settlement, “the respective people will have the option to determining their future including independence through a referendum.” The author did not have available the Political Charter signed in Khartoum on 10 April 1996. Hence, it is not possible to propose an authoritative interpretation of the Peace Agreement of 21 April 1997, as this latter document also refers to the Political Charter. However, the 1997 Agreement specifically assigns to the people of South Sudan, defined
39 as the people inhabiting the former provinces of Bahr el Gal, Equatoria and the Upper Nile with their boundaries of 1 January 1956, the right to self-determination to be exercised through a referendum. The agreement expressly specifies the options of unity and secessions for the referendum, which is to be held at the end of an interim period of four years. While neither of the above agreements were implemented, and the 1997 Agreement did not obtain consent from all of the Southern Sudanese parties, it is noteworthy that the Sudan government apparently subscribed to them. Of course, it might be argued that their lack of implementation negates their content entirely. However, it is difficult to deny entirely that the government appears to have accepted in principle the possibility that southern Sudan can enjoy a granted constitutional self-determination status, if it has not in fact already done so in a legally binding way. On the other hand, the new Sudan constitution that came into force on 1 July 1998 does not appear to be in accord with this trend. Article 6 prescribes national unity as one of the aims of the state. Article 139 (g) establishes as a fundamental constitutional principle that cannot be easily overturned. In addition to the ordinary process for a constitutional amendment, the following principle can only be amended if approved “by a majority of the people of Sudan in a referendum”: South Sudan is governed by a transitional government that shall strive towards union and co-ordinate the exercise and termination of the right to self-determination.
The reference to the majority of the people of Sudan appears to require a referendum throughout Sudan in order to achieve such a change. At first sight, and without the availability of further information, the exercise “and termination” of the right to self- determination seems to be focused on the aim of strengthening the union, rather than lessening it.
II. The Means of Achieving Self-Determination A. Process The means of achieving self-determination in the sense of secession are determined by the type of self-determination entity. In the case of a colonial entity, the colonial power is positively required to lead the entity towards self-determination. It must on no account repress the entity on its way towards this aim. The act of self-determination normally would take the form of a referendum, although the case of Bahrain and one or two others constitute an exception:
40 The above provisions [of that resolution], in particular paragraph 2, thus confirm and emphasize that the application of the right of self-determination requires a free and genuine expression of the will of the peoples concerned. ... Western Sahara, 1975 ICJ 31, 32, 33.
A referendum should be held in an environment that is politically neutral. The option of independence must be provided. All segments of the population have to be entitled and enabled equally to participate in the referendum. However, as the Badinter Commission confirmed in relation to Bosnia and Herzegovina, a minority segment of the population cannot veto a referendum by boycotting it. The referendum will stand, if sufficient efforts were made to enable all minorities to participate. In case of colonial entities, a referendum is in itself decisive. The colonial power must give effect to its results. The Canadian Supreme Court reference has helpfully clarified that a more exhaustive process of negotiation must follow in cases of constitutional self- determination cases, provided the referendum was permissible according to the constitutional order of the overall state in the first place. A referendum result in such cases represents a point of departure for negotiations about independence. Both sides must negotiate in good faith and there is no room for unilateral actions for either of them. In some cases the constitution itself, or legislation, will establish a path towards secession. If one side obviously and persistently frustrates attempts to negotiate or to follow the path for secession laid out in constitutional instruments, then it is possible to proceed unilaterally. Should the central government then use force against the secessionist entity, it can seek international support and ultimately recognition. In cases of effective secession, there is obviously no process of negotiation that has been followed. Instead, unilateral action has created a fact that may or may not be preserved over time. Generally, states will be very reluctant to consider recognition of an effective entity, until such time as the central government signals that it no longer resists independence. While recognition is not seen to be constitutive of statehood, in cases of effective secession it is virtually impossible to determine the point in time when the entity is sufficiently stable to attract the status of statehood until it has attracted a significant number of recognitions. B. The level of entitlement An entity seeking secession is already the beneficiary of international legal rights, at least in cases of colonial secession, before it actualizes the claim to self-determination. Recent practice would also indicate that constitutional self-determination entities enjoy certain entitlements once they have embarked upon a course to independence, provided they
41 have conducted a free and fair referendum and have followed a path of negotiation about its implementation in good faith. Effective entities, on the other hand, enjoy no international legal entitlements until they have stabilized sufficiently to attract widespread recognition. Instead, individuals residing within the entity are merely protected by human rights and the law of (internal) armed conflict.
The following chart summarizes the entitlements of self-determination entities and effective entities.
Inherent self-determination entity (colonial, armed occupation /secondary colonial) • separate legal personality • uti possidetis boundary • territorial integrity • permanent sovereignty over natural resources • right to administer act of self-determination • but, generally, only once territorial unity • right not to be repressed right to struggle • right to have NLM recognized right to receive assistance • imprescriptable status (in theory)
Constitutional self-determination entity • potential separate legal personality • uti possidetis • territorial integrity • relative sovereignty over natuaral resources • right to administer act of self-determination • obligation to respect minority rights ? • right not to be repressed • right to representation?? • right to self-defence • right to assistance??
Effective (Unprivileged) entity • internal status while struggling • no positive ‘right’ to struggle • human rights, law of internal armed conflict • disputed right of international initiative
42 C. The possibility of struggle Before concluding this brief overview, it may be worthwhile adding a few words about national liberation movements and the ‘right to struggle’. In classical colonial self- determination cases, the colonial power must not repress a popular movement seeking self-determination. If it does so, the entity may for a National Liberation Movement. The movement has the right to struggle, including an armed struggle. In that struggle, it may receive international support which would not, in this case, constitute a case of unlawful armed intervention in an internal conflict. However, that right does not include direct military support through troups, air attacks, etc. Instead, it will tend to be limited to supplies and perhaps basing and training facilities. Even such a limited entitlement is, however, disputed by some Western states. Uniquely, genuine national liberation movements have the legal right unilaterally to bring into play the law of international armed conflict, instead of the more limited law of internal armed conflicts (although only in relation to parties to the 1st 1977 Protocol to the four Geneva Conventions). The right to struggle, i.e., to wage an armed campaign for secession is strictly limited to colonial situation. The legal regime outlined above does not apply to groups that style themselves national liberation movements in other contexts. Given the events of 11 September 2001, it is likely that this restrictive view will be pursued by governments around the world with even greater vigor. Finally, even those entities entitled to struggle must do so according to the laws of armed conflict. Hence, practices that are generally described as terrorism (i.e., attacks against non-military objectives, or attacks carried out by individuals that cannot be distinguished from the civilian population) are of course not justified by any cause, however just that cause may be. D. Types of Settlement While these types of settlement have already been noted in passing above, it may be worthwhile to recall that immediate independence is not always the necessary outcome of the exercise of the right to self-determination, or of settlements that foresee the exercise of that right. In recent practice, a number of alternative models have been adopted. At the lowest end, these are autonomies that are adopted instead of a more wide-ranging self-determination entitlement. Federal-type solutions (proposed for Cyprus) or confederal arrangements, or mixtures of the two (e.g., the unique mixture established for Bosnia and Herzegovina adopted at Dayton) are also not unknown.
43 Another recent trend adds elements of complex power-sharing to the settlement. These elements relocate the exercise of sovereignty across numerous different layers of state authority, making it somewhat irrelevant to ask where sovereignty actually lies in relations between the central state and other entities. This is balanced by autonomies or federal structures with elements of consociational state construction. A further type of settlement establishes interim rule for the aspiring self-determination entity, and a cooperative interim arrangement with the central authorities. There will then be added a pledge either to consider self-determination in the sense of secession at a future date, or to establish a mechanism to negotiate about the question, or there may be provided a date or time-frame for the holding of a referendum on self-determination. With the cases of Eritrea, Bougainville and possibly Kosovo, this trend appears to be somewhat increasing, perhaps indicating a slightly more flexible international attitude in accepting the need for secession in exceptional cases even outside of the colonial context. This attitude is gradually being matched by a recognition of central authorities that self- determination and secessionist conflicts will continue unabated, unless and until a settlement has been achieved. Increasingly, the legal personality of the entities seeking self-determination is being recognized and accommodated. This occurs mostly within existing state boundaries, but international law now also provides the tools to arrange for interim governance with a view to the exercise of a genuine act of self-determination, including the possible option of independence.
ANNEX
Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Territories and Peoples General Assembly Resolution 1514 (XV) 14 December 1960
The General Assembly: Convinced that all peoples have an inalienable right to complete freedom, the exercise of their sovereignty and the integrity of their national territory, Solemnly proclaims the necessity of bringing to a speedy and unconditional end colonialism in all its forms and manifestations; And to this end Declares that: 1. The subjection of peoples to alien subjugation, domination and exploitation constitutes a denial of fundamental human rights, is contrary to the Charter of the United Nations and is an impediment to the promotion of world peace and co-operation. 2. All peoples have the right to self determination; by virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development. 3. Inadequacy of political, economic, social or educational preparedness should never serve as a pretext for delaying independence. 4. All armed action or repressive measures of all kinds directed against dependent peoples shall cease in order to enable them to exercise peacefully and freely their right to complete independence, and the integrity of their national territory shall be respected.
44 5. Immediate steps shall be taken, in Trust and Non-Self-Governing Territories or all other territories which have not yet attained independence, to transfer all powers to the peoples of those territories, without any conditions or reservations, in accordance with their freely expressed will and desire, without any distinction as to race, creed or colour, in order to enable them to enjoy complete independence and freedom. 6. Any attempt aimed at the partial or total disruption of the national unity and the territorial integrity of a country is incompatible with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations. 7. All States shall observe faithfully and strictly the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the present Declaration on the basis of equality, non-interference in the internal affairs of all States, and respect for the sovereign rights of all peoples and their territorial integrity. UN Doc A/4684 (1960), GAOR 15th Session, Supp 16, p. 66
General Assembly Resolution 1541 (XV) 15 December 1960,
... Principles which should guide Members in determining whether or not an obligation exists to transmit the information called for in Article 73 of the Charter of the United Nations Principle VI A Non-Self-Governing Territory can be said to have reached a full measure of self-government by: (a) Emergence as a sovereign independent State; (b) Free association with an independent State; or (c) Integration with an independent State. Principle VII (a) Free association should be the result of a free and voluntary choice by the peoples of the territory concerned expressed through informed and democratic processes. It should be one which respects the individuality and the cultural characteristics of the territory and its peoples, and retains for the peoples of the territory which is associated with an independent State the freedom to modify the status of that territory through the expression of their will by democratic means and through constitutional processes. (b) The associated territory should have the right to determine its internal constitution without outside interference, in accordance with due constitutional processes and the freely expressed wishes of the people. This does not preclude consultations as appropriate or necessary under the terms of the free association agreed upon. Principle VIII Integration with an independent State should be on the basis of complete equality between the peoples of the erstwhile Non-Self-Governing Territory and those of the independent country with which it is integrated. The peoples of both territories should have equal status and rights of citizenship and equal guarantees of fundamental rights and freedoms without any distinction or discrimination; both should have equal rights and opportunities for representation and effective participation at all levels in the executive, legislative and judicial organs of government. Principle IX Integration should have come about in the following circumstances: (a) The integrating territory should have attained an advanced stage of self- government with free political institutions, so that its people would have the capacity to make a responsible choice through informed and democratic processes; (b) The integration should be the result of the freely expressed wishes of the territory's peoples acting with full knowledge of the change in their status, their wishes having been expressed through informed and democratic processes, impartially conducted and based on universal adult suffrage. The United Nations could, when it deems it necessary, supervise these processes. UN Doc A/4684 (1960), GAOR 15th Session, Supp 16, p. 29
UN General Assembly Declaration 2625 (XXV) on Friendly Relations ..., 1970 The principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples
45 By virtue of the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, all peoples have the right freely to determine, without external interference, their political status and to pursue their economic, social and cultural development, and every State has the duty to respect this right in accordance with the provisions of the Charter. The establishment of a sovereign and independent State, the free association or integration with an independent State or the emergence into any other political status freely determined by a people constitute modes of implementing the right of self- determination by that people. Every State has the duty to refrain from any forcible action which deprives peoples referred to above in the elaboration of the present principle of their right to self- determination and freedom and independence. In their actions against, and resistance to, such forcible action in pursuit of the exercise of their right to self-determination, such peoples are entitled to seek and to receive support in accordance with the purposes and principles of the Charter. The territory of a colony or other non-self-governing territory has, under the Charter, a status separate and distinct from the territory of the State administering it; and such separate and distinct status under the Charter shall exist until the people of the colony or non-self governing territory have exercised their right of self-determination in accordance with the Charter, and particularly its purposes and principles. Nothing in the foregoing paragraphs shall be construed as authorizing or encouraging any action which would dismember or impair, totally or in part, the territorial integrity or political unity of sovereign and independent States conducting themselves in compliance with the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples as described above and thus possessed of a government representing the whole people belonging to the territory without distinction as to race, creed or colour. Every State shall refrain from any action aimed at the partial or total disruption of the national unity and territorial integrity of any other State or country.
CSCE Final Act, 1 August 1975
Principle IV: The participating States will respect the territorial integrity of each of the participating States. Accordingly, they will refrain from any action inconsistent with the pruposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations against the territorial integrity, political independence or the unity of any participating State, and in particular from any such action constituting a threat or the use of force. 73 Department of State Bulletin 323 (1975).
European Political Cooperation, Press release, P. 128/91
Declaration on the "Guidelines on the Recognition of New States in Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union"
(Extraordinary EPC Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, 16 December 1991)
In compliance with the European Council's request, Ministers have assessed developments in Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union with a view to elaborating an approach regarding relations with new States. In this connection they have adopted the following guidelines on the formal recognition of new states in Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union: "The Community and its member States confirm their attachment to the principles of the Helsinki Final Act and the Charter of Paris, in particular the principle of self- determination. They affirm their readiness to recognise, subject to the normal standards of international practice and the political realities in each case, those new States which, following the historic changes in the region, have constituted themselves on a democratic
46 basis, have accepted the appropriate international obligations and have committed themselves in good faith to a peaceful process and to negotiations. Therefore, they adopt a common position on the process of recognition of these new States, which requires: - respect for the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations and the commitments subscribed to in the Final Act of Helsinki and in the Charter of Paris, especially with regard to the rule of law, democracy and human rights; - guarantees for the rights of ethnic and national groups and minorities in accordance with the commitments subscribed to in the framework of the CSCE; - respect for the inviolability of all frontiers which can only be changed by peaceful means and by common agreement; - acceptance of all relevant commitments with regard to disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation as well as to security and regional stability; - commitment to settle by agreement, including where appropriate by recourse to arbitration, all questions concerning State succession and regional disputes. The Community and its member States will not recognise entities which are the result of aggression. They would take account of the effects of recognition on neighbouring States. The commitment to these principles opens the way to recognition by the Community and its member States and to the establishment of diplomatic relations. It could be laid down in agreements."
European Political Cooperation, Press release, P. 129/91
Declaration on Yugoslavia (Extraordinary EPC Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, 16 December 1991)
The European Community and its member States discussed the situation in Yugoslavia in the light of their guidelines on the recognition of new states in Eastern Europe and in the Soviet Union. They adopted a common position with regard to the recognition of Yugoslav Republics. In this connection they concluded the following: The Community and its member States agree to recognise the independence of all the Yugoslav Republics fulfilling all the conditions set out below. The implementation of this decision will take place on January 15, 1992. They are therefore inviting all Yugoslav Republics to state by 23 December whether: - they wish to be recognised as independent States; - they accept the commitments contained in the above-mentioned guidelines; - they accept the provisions laid down in the draft Convention - especially those in Chapter II on human rights and rights of national or ethnic groups - under consideration by the Conference on Yugoslavia; - they continue to support - the efforts of the Secretary General and the Security Council of the United Nations, and - the continuation of the Conference on Yugoslavia. The applications of those Republics which reply positively will be submitted through the Chair of the Conference to the Arbitration Commission for advice before the implementation date. In the meantime, the Community and its member States request the UN Secretary General and the UN Security Council to continue their efforts to establish an effective cease-fire and promote a peaceful and negotiated outcome to the conflict. They continue to attach the greatest importance to the early deployment of a UN peace-keeping force referred to in UN Security Council Resolution 724. The Community and its member States also require a Yugoslav Republic to commit itself, prior to recognition, to adopt constitutional and political guarantees ensuring that it has no territorial claims towards a neighbouring Community State and that it will conduct no hostile propaganda activities versus a neighbouring Community State, including the use of a denomination which implies territorial claims.
47
Security Council resolution on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro)
The Security Council, Reaffirming its resolution 713 (1991) of 25 September 1991 and all subsequent relevant resolutions, Considering that the State formerly known as the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has ceased to exist, Recalling in particular resolution 757 (1992) which notes that 'the claim by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) to continue automatically the membership of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the United Nations has not been generally accepted', 1. Considers that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) cannot continue automatically the membership of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the United Nations; and therefore recommends to the General Assembly that it decide that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) should apply for membership in the United Nations and that it shall not participate in the work of the General Assembly; 2. Decides to consider the matter again before the end of the main part of the forty-seventh session of the General Assembly.
Opinions of the [EC] Badinter Arbitration Commission on the former Yugoslavia
Note: The Badinter Commission was created to advise the EU (later EU/UN) peace conference on Yugoslavia. It is composed of eminent jurists and can render opinions at the request of the parties to the peace conference. Its opinions, while influential, are not legally binding. A good appraisal of the Badiner Opinion’s work is furnished in the 1986 British Yearbook of International Law.
Opinion No. 1
The President of the Arbitration Committee received the following letter from Lord Carrington, President of the Conference on Yugoslavia, on 20 November 1991:
We find ourselves with a major legal question. Serbia considers that those Republics which have declared or would declare themselves independent or sovereign have seceded or would secede from the SFRY which would otherwise continue to exist. Other Republics on the contrary consider that there is no question of secession, but the question is one of a disintegration or breaking-up of the SFRY as the result of the concurring will of a number of Republics. They consider that the six Republics are to be considered equal successors to the SFRY, without any of them or group of them being able to claim to be the continuation thereof. I should like the Arbitration Committee to consider the matter in order to formulate any opinion or recommendation which it might deem useful. The Arbitration Committee has been apprised of the memoranda and documents communicated respectively by the Republics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Serbia, and by the President of the collegiate Presidency of the SFRY. 1) The Committee considers: a) that the answer to the question should be based on the principles of public international law which serve to define the conditions on which an entity constitutes a
48 state; that in this respect, the existence or disappearance of the state is a question of fact; that the effects of recognition by other states are purely declaratory; b) that the state is commonly defined as a community which consists of a territory and a population subject to an organized political authority; that such a state is characterized by sovereignty; c) that, for the purpose of applying these criteria, the form of internal political organization and the constitutional provisions are mere facts, although it is necessary to take them into consideration in order to determine the Government's way over the population and the territory; d) that in the case of a federal-type state, which embraces communities that possess a degree of autonomy and, moreover, participate in the exercise of political power within the framework of institutions common to the Federation, the existence of the state implies that the federal organs represent the components of the Federation and wield effective power; e) that, in compliance with the accepted definition in international law, the expression 'state succession' means the replacement of one state by another in the responsibility for the international relations of territory. This occurs whenever there is a change in the territory of the state. The phenomenon of state succession is governed by the principles of international law, from which the Vienna Conventions of 23 August 1978 and 8 April 1983 have drawn inspiration. In compliance with these principles, the outcome of succession should be equitable, the states concerned being free of terms of settlement and conditions by agreement. Moreover, the peremptory norms of general international law and, in particular, respect for the fundamental rights of the individual and the rights of peoples and minorities, are binding on all the parties to the succession. 2) The Arbitration Committee notes that: a) - although the SFRY has until now retained its international personality, notably inside international organizations, the Republics have expressed their desire for independence; - in Slovenia, by a referendum in December 1990, followed by a declaration of independence on 25 June 1991, which was suspended for three months and confirmed on 8 October 1991; - in Croatia, by a referendum held in May 1991, followed by a declaration of independence on 25 June 1991, which was suspended for three months and confirmed on 8 October 1991; - in Macedonia, by a referendum held in September 1991 in favour of a sovereign and independent Macedonia within an association of Yugoslav states; - in Bosnia and Herzegovina, by a sovereignty resolution adopted by Parliament on 14 October 1991, whose validity has been contested by the Serbian community of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. b) - The composition and workings of the essential organs of the Federation, be they the Federal Presidency, the Federal Council, the Council of the Republics and the Provinces, the Federal Executive Council, the Constitutional Court or the Federal Army, no longer meet the criteria of participation and representatives inherent in a federal state; c) - The recourse to force has led to armed conflict between the different elements of the Federation which has caused the death of thousands of people and wrought considerable destruction within a few months. The authorities of the Federation and the Republics have shown themselves to be powerless to enforce respect for the succeeding ceasefire agreements concluded under the auspices of the European Communities or the United Nations Organization. 3) Consequently, the Arbitration Committee is of the opinion: - that the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is in the process of dissolution; - that it is incumbent upon the Republics to settle such problems of state succession as may arise from this process in keeping with the principles and rules of international law, with particular regard for human rights and the rights of peoples and minorities;
49 - that it is up to those Republics that so wish, to work together to form a new association endowed with the democratic institutions of their choice.
Opinion No. 2
On 20 November 1991 the Chairman of the Arbitration Committee received a letter from Lord Carrington, Chairman of the Conference on Yugoslavia, requesting the Committee's opinion on the following question put by the Republic of Serbia: Does the Serbian population in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, as one of the constituent peoples of Yugoslavia, have the right to self-determination? The Committee took note of the aide-mémoires, observations and other materials submitted by the Republics of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia and Serbia, by the Presidency of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) and by the 'Assembly of the Serbian People of Bosnia-Herzegovina'. 1. The Committee considers that, whatever the circumstances, the right to self- determination must not involve changes to existing frontiers at the time of independence (uti possidetis juris) except where the states concerned agree otherwise. 2. Where there are one or more groups within a state constituting one or more ethnic, religious or language communities, they have the right to recognition of their identity under international law. As the Committee emphasized in its Opinion No. 1 of 29 November 1991, published on 7 December, the - now peremptory - norms of international law require states to ensure respect for the rights of minorities. This requirement applies to all the Republics vis-à-vis the minorities on their territory. The Serbian population in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia must therefore be afforded every right accorded to minorities under international convention as well as national and international guarantees consistent with the principles of international law and the provisions of Chapter II of the draft Convention of 4 November 1991, which has been accepted by these Republics. 3. Article 1 of the two 1986 International Covenants on human rights establishes that the principle of the right to self-determination serves to safeguard human rights. By virtue of that right every individual may choose to belong to whatever ethnic, religious or language community he or she wishes. In the Committee's view one possible consequence of this principle might be for the members of the Serbian population in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia to be recognized under agreements between the Republics as having the nationality of their choice, with all the rights and obligations which that entails with respect to the states concerned. 4. The Arbitration Committee is therefore of the opinion: (i) that the Serbian population in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia is entitled to all the rights concerned to minorities and ethnic groups under international law and under the provisions of the draft Convention of the Conference on Yugoslavia of 4 November 1991, to which the Republics of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia have undertaken to give effect; and (ii) that the Republics must afford the members of those minorities and ethnic groups all the human rights and fundamental freedoms recognized in international law, including, where appropriate, the right to choose their nationality.
Opinion No. 3
On 20 November 1991 the Chairman of the Arbitration Committee received a letter from Lord Carrington, Chairman of the Conference on Yugoslavia, requesting the Committee's opinion on the following question put by the Republic of Serbia: Can the internal boundaries between Croatia and Serbia and between Bosnia- Herzegovina and Serbia be regarded as frontiers in terms of public international law? The Committee took note of the aide-mémoires, observations and other materials submitted by the Republics of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro,
50 Slovenia and Serbia, by the Presidency of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) and by the 'Assembly of the Serbian People of Bosnia-Herzegovina'. 1. In its Opinion No. 1 of 29 November, published on 7 December, the Committee found that 'the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is in the process of breaking up'. Bearing in mind that the Republics of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, inter alia, have sought international recognition as independent states, the Committee is mindful of the fact that its answer to the question before it will necessarily be given in the context of a fluid and changing situation and must therefore be founded on the principles and rules of public international law. 2. The Committee therefore takes the view that once the process in the SFRY leads to the creation of one or more independent states, the issue of frontiers, in particular those of the Republics referred to in the question before it, must be resolved in accordance with the following principles: First - All external frontiers must be respected in line with the principles stated in the United Nations Charter, in the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations (General Assembly Resolution 2625 (XXV)) and in the Helsinki Final Act, a principle which also underlies Article 11 of the Vienna Convention of 23 August 1978 on the Succession of States in Respect of Treaties. Second - The boundaries between Croatia and Serbia, between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia, and possibly other adjacent independent states may not be altered except by agreement freely arrived at. Third - Except where otherwise agreed, the former boundaries become frontiers protected by international law. This conclusion follows from the principle of respect for the territorial status quo and, in particular, from the principle of uti possidetis. Uti possidetis, though initially applied in settling decolonisation issues in America and Africa, is today recognized as a general principle, as stated by the International Court of Justice in its Judgment of 22 December 1986 in the case between Burkina Faso and Haiti (Frontier Dispute , (1986) Law Reports 554 at 565): Nevertheless the principle is not a special rule which pertains solely to one specific system of international law. It is a general principle, which is logically connected with the phenomenon of the obtaining of independence, wherever it occurs. Its obvious purpose is to prevent the independence and stability of new states being endangered by fratricidal struggles ... The principle applies all the more readily to the Republic since the second and fourth paragraphs of Article 5 of the Constitution of the SFRY stipulated that the Republics' territories and boundaries could not be altered without their consent. Fourth - According to a well-established principle of international law the alteration of existing frontiers or boundaries by force is not capable of producing any legal effect. This principle is to be found, for instance, in the Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations (General Assembly resolution 2625 (XXV)) and in the Helsinki Final Act; it was cited by the Hague Conference on 7 September 1991 and is enshrined in the draft Convention of 4 November 1991 drawn up by the Conference on Yugoslavia.
RESOLUTION 1244 (1999) Adopted by the Security Council at its 4011th meeting, on 10 June 1999
The Security Council, Bearing in mind the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, and the primary responsibility of the Security Council for the maintenance of international peace and security, Recalling its resolutions 1160 (1998) of 31 March 1998, 1199 (1998) of 23 September 1998, 1203 (1998) of 24 October 1998 and 1239 (1999) of 14 May 1999,
51 Regretting that there has not been full compliance with the requirements of these resolutions, Determined to resolve the grave humanitarian situation in Kosovo, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and to provide for the safe and free return of all refugees and displaced persons to their homes, Condemning all acts of violence against the Kosovo population as well as all terrorist acts by any party, Recalling the statement made by the Secretary-General on 9 April 1999, expressing concern at the humanitarian tragedy taking place in Kosovo, Reaffirming the right of all refugees and displaced persons to return to their homes in safety, Recalling the jurisdiction and the mandate of the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, Welcoming the general principles on a political solution to the Kosovo crisis adopted on 6 May 1999 (S/1999/516, annex 1 to this resolution) and welcoming also the acceptance by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia of the principles set forth in points 1 to 9 of the paper presented in Belgrade on 2 June 1999 (S/1999/649, annex 2 to this resolution), and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's agreement to that paper, Reaffirming the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other States of the region, as set out in the Helsinki Final Act and annex 2, Reaffirming the call in previous resolutions for substantial autonomy and meaningful self-administration for Kosovo, Determining that the situation in the region continues to constitute a threat to international peace and security, Determined to ensure the safety and security of international personnel and the implementation by all concerned of their responsibilities under the present resolution, and acting for these purposes under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, 1. Decides that a political solution to the Kosovo crisis shall be based on the general principles in annex 1 and as further elaborated in the principles and other required elements in annex 2; 2. Welcomes the acceptance by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia of the principles and other required elements referred to in paragraph 1 above, and demands the full cooperation of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in their rapid implementation; 3. Demands in particular that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia put an immediate and verifiable end to violence and repression in Kosovo, and begin and complete verifiable phased withdrawal from Kosovo of all military, police and paramilitary forces according to a rapid timetable, with which the deployment of the international security presence in Kosovo will be synchronized; 4. Confirms that after the withdrawal an agreed number of Yugoslav and Serb military and police personnel will be permitted to return to Kosovo to perform the functions in accordance with annex 2; 5. Decides on the deployment in Kosovo, under United Nations auspices, of international civil and security presences, with appropriate equipment and personnel as required, and welcomes the agreement of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to such presences;
52 6. Requests the Secretary-General to appoint, in consultation with the Security Council, a Special Representative to control the implementation of the international civil presence, and further requests the Secretary-General to instruct his Special Representative to coordinate closely with the international security presence to ensure that both presences operate towards the same goals and in a mutually supportive manner; 7. Authorizes Member States and relevant international organizations to establish the international security presence in Kosovo as set out in point 4 of annex 2 with all necessary means to fulfil its responsibilities under paragraph 9 below; 8. Affirms the need for the rapid early deployment of effective international civil and security presences to Kosovo, and demands that the parties cooperate fully in their deployment; 9. Decides that the responsibilities of the international security presence to be deployed and acting in Kosovo will include: (a) Deterring renewed hostilities, maintaining and where necessary enforcing a ceasefire, and ensuring the withdrawal and preventing the return into Kosovo of Federal and Republic military, police and paramilitary forces, except as provided in point 6 of annex 2; (b) Demilitarizing the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and other armed Kosovo Albanian groups as required in paragraph 15 below; (c) Establishing a secure environment in which refugees and displaced persons can return home in safety, the international civil presence can operate, a transitional administration can be established, and humanitarian aid can be delivered; (d) Ensuring public safety and order until the international civil presence can take responsibility for this task; (e) Supervising demining until the international civil presence can, as appropriate, take over responsibility for this task; (f) Supporting, as appropriate, and coordinating closely with the work of the international civil presence; (g) Conducting border monitoring duties as required; (h) Ensuring the protection and freedom of movement of itself, the international civil presence, and other international organizations; 10. Authorizes the Secretary-General, with the assistance of relevant international organizations, to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo in order to provide an interim administration for Kosovo under which the people of Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and which will provide transitional administration while establishing and overseeing the development of provisional democratic self-governing institutions to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants of Kosovo; 11. Decides that the main responsibilities of the international civil presence will include: (a) Promoting the establishment, pending a final settlement, of substantial autonomy and self-government in Kosovo, taking full account of annex 2 and of the Rambouillet accords (S/1999/648); (b) Performing basic civilian administrative functions where and as long as required; (c) Organizing and overseeing the development of provisional institutions for democratic and autonomous self-government pending a political settlement, including the holding of elections;
53 (d) Transferring, as these institutions are established, its administrative responsibilities while overseeing and supporting the consolidation of Kosovo's local provisional institutions and other peace-building activities; (e) Facilitating a political process designed to determine Kosovo's future status, taking into account the Rambouillet accords (S/1999/648); (f) In a final stage, overseeing the transfer of authority from Kosovo's provisional institutions to institutions established under a political settlement; (g) Supporting the reconstruction of key infrastructure and other economic reconstruction; (h) Supporting, in coordination with international humanitarian organizations, humanitarian and disaster relief aid; (i) Maintaining civil law and order, including establishing local police forces and meanwhile through the deployment of international police personnel to serve in Kosovo; (j) Protecting and promoting human rights; (k) Assuring the safe and unimpeded return of all refugees and displaced persons to their homes in Kosovo; 12. Emphasizes the need for coordinated humanitarian relief operations, and for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to allow unimpeded access to Kosovo by humanitarian aid organizations and to cooperate with such organizations so as to ensure the fast and effective delivery of international aid; 13. Encourages all Member States and international organizations to contribute to economic and social reconstruction as well as to the safe return of refugees and displaced persons, and emphasizes in this context the importance of convening an international donors' conference, particularly for the purposes set out in paragraph 11 (g) above, at the earliest possible date; 14. Demands full cooperation by all concerned, including the international security presence, with the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia; 15. Demands that the KLA and other armed Kosovo Albanian groups end immediately all offensive actions and comply with the requirements for demilitarization as laid down by the head of the international security presence in consultation with the Special Representative of the Secretary-General; 16. Decides that the prohibitions imposed by paragraph 8 of resolution 1160 (1998) shall not apply to arms and related matériel for the use of the international civil and security presences; 17. Welcomes the work in hand in the European Union and other international organizations to develop a comprehensive approach to the economic development and stabilization of the region affected by the Kosovo crisis, including the implementation of a Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe with broad international participation in order to further the promotion of democracy, economic prosperity, stability and regional cooperation; 18. Demands that all States in the region cooperate fully in the implementation of all aspects of this resolution; 19. Decides that the international civil and security presences are established for an initial period of 12 months, to continue thereafter unless the Security Council decides otherwise;
54 20. Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council at regular intervals on the implementation of this resolution, including reports from the leaderships of the international civil and security presences, the first reports to be submitted within 30 days of the adoption of this resolution; 21. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter.
Annex 1 Statement by the Chairman on the conclusion of the meeting of the G-8 Foreign Ministers held at the Petersberg Centre on 6 May 1999 The G-8 Foreign Ministers adopted the following general principles on the political solution to the Kosovo crisis: - Immediate and verifiable end of violence and repression in Kosovo; - Withdrawal from Kosovo of military, police and paramilitary forces; - Deployment in Kosovo of effective international civil and security presences, endorsed and adopted by the United Nations, capable of guaranteeing the achievement of the common objectives; - Establishment of an interim administration for Kosovo to be decided by the Security Council of the United Nations to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants in Kosovo; - The safe and free return of all refugees and displaced persons and unimpeded access to Kosovo by humanitarian aid organizations; - A political process towards the establishment of an interim political framework agreement providing for a substantial self-government for Kosovo, taking full account of the Rambouillet accords and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other countries of the region, and the demilitarization of the KLA; - Comprehensive approach to the economic development and stabilization of the crisis region.
Annex 2 Agreement should be reached on the following principles to move towards a resolution of the Kosovo crisis: 1. An immediate and verifiable end of violence and repression in Kosovo. 2. Verifiable withdrawal from Kosovo of all military, police and paramilitary forces according to a rapid timetable. 3. Deployment in Kosovo under United Nations auspices of effective international civil and security presences, acting as may be decided under Chapter VII of the Charter, capable of guaranteeing the achievement of common objectives. 4. The international security presence with substantial North Atlantic Treaty Organization participation must be deployed under unified command and control and authorized to establish a safe environment for all people in Kosovo and to facilitate the safe return to their homes of all displaced persons and refugees. 5. Establishment of an interim administration for Kosovo as a part of the international civil presence under which the people of Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, to be decided by the Security Council of the United Nations. The interim administration to provide transitional administration while
55 establishing and overseeing the development of provisional democratic self-governing institutions to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants in Kosovo. 6. After withdrawal, an agreed number of Yugoslav and Serbian personnel will be permitted to return to perform the following functions: - Liaison with the international civil mission and the international security presence; - Marking/clearing minefields; - Maintaining a presence at Serb patrimonial sites; - Maintaining a presence at key border crossings. 7. Safe and free return of all refugees and displaced persons under the supervision of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and unimpeded access to Kosovo by humanitarian aid organizations. 8. A political process towards the establishment of an interim political framework agreement providing for substantial self-government for Kosovo, taking full account of the Rambouillet accords and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other countries of the region, and the demilitarization of UCK. Negotiations between the parties for a settlement should not delay or disrupt the establishment of democratic self-governing institutions. 9. A comprehensive approach to the economic development and stabilization of the crisis region. This will include the implementation of a stability pact for South-Eastern Europe with broad international participation in order to further promotion of democracy, economic prosperity, stability and regional cooperation. 10. Suspension of military activity will require acceptance of the principles set forth above in addition to agreement to other, previously identified, required elements, which are specified in the footnote below.1 A military-technical agreement will then be rapidly concluded that would, among other things, specify additional modalities, including the roles and functions of Yugoslav/Serb personnel in Kosovo: Withdrawal - Procedures for withdrawals, including the phased, detailed schedule and delineation of a buffer area in Serbia beyond which forces will be withdrawn; Returning personnel - Equipment associated with returning personnel; - Terms of reference for their functional responsibilities; - Timetable for their return; - Delineation of their geographical areas of operation; - Rules governing their relationship to the international security presence and the international civil mission.
Notes 1 Other required elements: - A rapid and precise timetable for withdrawals, meaning, e.g., seven days to complete withdrawal and air defence weapons withdrawn outside a 25 kilometre mutual safety zone within 48 hours; - Return of personnel for the four functions specified above will be under the supervision of the international security presence and will be limited to a small agreed number (hundreds, not thousands);
56 - Suspension of military activity will occur after the beginning of verifiable withdrawals; - The discussion and achievement of a military-technical agreement shall not extend the previously determined time for completion of withdrawals.
CHECHNYA The Russian - Chechen Truce Agreements, 25 August 1996.
Lebed, A. Maskhadov, S. Kharlamov, S-Kh. Abumuslimov: We, the undersigned, taking into account the progress achieved towards the ending of the warfare, endeavoring to create mutually acceptable basis for political solution of the armed conflict, recognizing that it is prohibited to use armed forces or to threaten the use of force as a means towards the resolution of issues under dispute, embarking upon the universally recognized right of nations to self-determination, upon the principles of equality, freedom of choice, free expression of will, strengthening of international accord and security of all nations, exercising the will towards the defence of human and civil rights regardless of his or her nationality, religious affiliation, place of residence and other differences, towards the ending of acts of violence in the relations of political adversaries, while at the same time embarking upon the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1949 and upon the International Pact on Civil and Political Rights of 1966, have jointly worked out the Rules for Clarifying the Basis for Mutual Relations between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic according to which the further peace process shall be developed:
The Rules for Clarifying the Basis for Mutual Relations between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic
1. The treaty regulating the basis for mutual relations between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic, to be governed by the universally accepted principles and norms of the international law, shall have been reached prior to 31 December, 2001. 2. No later than on 1 October, 1996, a Joint Commission shall have been formed, constituted by the representatives of the state authorities of the Russian Federation and of the Chechen Republic, the duties of which shall be as follows: -- to assume control over the implementation of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation issued on 25 June, 1996, under No. 985, and to prepare proposals concerning the completion of the withdrawal of the armed forces; -- to initiate joint undertakings directed towards the combat of crime, terrorism and nationalistic and religious prejudices, and to control their implementation; -- to prepare proposals for the reconstruction of currency, fiscal and budgetary mutual relations; -- to prepare for the enactment by the Government of the Russian Federation of the programmes for the rebuilding of the socio-economic infrastructure of the Chechen Republic; -- to control over the agreed forms of cooperation of the state authorities and other relevant organizations concerning the supply and distribution of food and medical aid among the population.
57 3. The legal system of the Chechen Republic is based upon the respect for human and civil rights, upon the right of nations towards the self-determination, upon the principles of equal rights of nations, of the priority for civil accord, international peace and security for citizens residing on the territory of the Chechen Republic regardless of their nationality, religious identity and other differences. 4. The Joint Commission shall end its work upon mutual agreement of the parties. Signed by: A. Lebed, A. Maskhadov, S. Kharlamov, S-Kh. Abumuslimov; Date of signing: 25.08.1996 Place of signing: Khasavyurt, Republic of Dagestan. In the presence of the Head of the Special Task Group of the OSCE for Chechnya, Mr. T. Guildemann. [Note: A slighly more reliable translation of the agreement can be found, along with previous agreements, in 17 Human Rights Law Journal (1996) 241.]
58 b. Summary of discussion
1. There is a consensus between the Sudanese parties that self-determination is an issue that can be implemented. All Sudanese political forces, including the Government of the Sudan (GOS) have endorsed it. The National Democratic Alliance has also endorsed it within the Asmara Declaration of 1995. Until now the South has insisted that self-determination or may mean separation. There ought also to be the possibility of self-determination without separation. What is currently required is a process by which self-determination could be achieved.
2. The Ethio-Eritrea settlement is unique because it was the core of the Eritrean army that overthrew President Mengistu in 1991. At that time the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was the weak party and had to acquiesce to the demands of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) during the conference of Nationalities in 1991. In this case the TPLF and EPLF opted to have an agreed settlement. When we apply the Eritrean case to the Sudan we must look at two areas: How do we see the Sudan entity prior to the condominium? How do we look at Southern Sudan?
3. In Bosnia-Herzegovina there were two entities which thought they were independent states: Serbska and Croatska. Both had a defined territory, government and population. But both were entities that were brought into being through genocide and/or ethnic cleansing. They are therefore non-states. There was great reluctance to accept the falling apart of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
4. According to the current international law ‘Self-determination is invariably practised only once’. The definition of entity may be one of the injustices of international law. Before occupation the essence of the rule of self-determination is to disregard the injustices of colonial divisions. The entity of colonial states must therefore be taken as the starting point. In 1964 the OAU decided not to dissolve colonial boundaries because of the fear of collapse and war. Colonialism defined the territories and the people living in them – these are now the self-determination entities. It is not necessarily just - often the boundaries were accidental. The view was expressed by some that in the case of the Sudan, the country just falls short of being a self- determination entity within colonial sense.
5. The right of self-determination has developed since 1960s. Since then a number important declarations have been issued in the 1970s and 1980s. These were directed at the remaining colonies of the colonial powers: Spain, Portugal and South Africa. International law is the most dynamic area of law. It is shaped by government practices and by changes in rules and institutions. However, when one looks at the issue of territorial stability, states have been very conservative. That is why the international community has forced states to provide a greater accommodation of diversity within their respective frontiers. The international community is increasingly willing to put pressure on governments to settle internal disputes even though these might not threaten international security. The state that is currently
59 advocated by many institutions is one which balances the need of the state with the needs of the people.
6. The definition of ‘international community’ depends on the circumstances. It encompasses organisations such as United Nations and Organisation of Africa Unity. It includes the voice of state as well as non-state actors such as civil society organisations. The voice of non-state actors can take different forms and they tend to moderate the conduct of state actors.
7. One must also examine the definition of colonialism. Many southern Sudanese argue that they have been ruled by a colonial power which has not only divided the country into two but has also not respected their wishes. This points to the existence of internal colonialism.
8. Self-determination is a problem which should not only be examined from a legal point of view but also from political, social and human rights perspectives. The international community provides alternative means for resolving sticking points which the different Sudanese constituencies should seize.
60 3. The Politics of Self-determination in the Sudan: between strategic acceptance and tactical avoidance
a. Paper presented by Peter Nyot Kok
“The South has no intention to secede from the North. If it intends to do so, nothing in this world will prevent her from doing so through the exercise of the right of self determination which nature and reason has conferred on every people. But the South will secede from the Sudan through its social, economic, political and cultural subjugation by the North. Saturlino Lohore , Constituent Assembly, 1958
Asmara Declaration of June 1995.
“The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hereby affirms that the right of self- determination is a basic human, democratic and people’s right which may be exercised at any time by any people”.
Executive Summary
This paper asserts that the right of self determination (hereinafter written as RSD) in one form or the other has been accepted by all the political and military formations of the Sudan. Although important details such as the length of the pre-referendum interim period, referendum law, and military and security arrangements during the interim period still have to be worked out, there is enough consensus among the political forces on the RDS and other administrative and constitutional matters for third party mediators to test the seriousness of the Sudanese for a just peace.
1. The Government of Sudan (GOS) had recognized the RSD for the South through a referendum in its 1998 Constitution and in the 1997 Khartoum with six Southern Sudanese political and military groups. Yet it has failed to implement those constitutional provisions and the Khartoum Peace Agreement. To be sure, the repressive policies of the present regime coupled with its so-called civilisational project and jihad have contributed directly to the revival of the RSD as the leading political demand of the Southern Sudanese.
61
The opposition NDA, which underwrote the Asmara Agreement of 1995 committing itself both to the RSD for the Southerners and for other Sudanese groups, has also been seen to be tactically moving away from that agreement.
Efforts at peace making should stress to all parties that no just and lasting peace is possible in Sudan where agreements are neither kept nor implemented. And if the purpose of wriggling out from all the existing RSD agreements is to protect the unity of the Sudan from the perceived consequences of the exercise of RSD, then a cardinal error is being made. The Sudan is not now united. It is more disunited geo-politically than at any time since the independence. Its inhabitants are less united every day the war continues. Paradoxically, as things now stand, a free and an internationally supervised referendum is perhaps the only viable option which offers a chance to recover the unity of, and the establishment of peace with justice in, the Sudan.
The paper suggests what various parties can do to ensure the implementation of the demonstrable political consensus on the RSD. Techniques of strategic admission and tactical avoidance can buy time as they do in pleadings, but do not and cannot solve deep-seated problems of structural injustices and fundamental disequilibrium in state formation in Sudan. It is ironic that the only major issue the political forces now agree on is the RSD which most of them prefer to defer indefinitely. It is a major operation, but the only operation that offers any chance of saving life.
The RSD is not only a human and people’s right. It is also a facility for conflict resolution. It carries the legitimizing effect of being the people’s choice. It is what the people concerned want. In the case of the Sudan, where major political decisions have been made and unmade by deceiving the Southerners (and others as well), or by simply not consulting them, or by consulting them in a token mode, the exercise of RSD is an overdue measure of corrective justice.
This paper will not deal in depth with juristic and political theory aspects of self- determination. Such aspects were of central relevance at a certain point in the past in the Sudanese debate. That the right of self-determination is relevant and invocable in a colonial or decolonialisation context is not a theme among the Sudanese political forces. That there is no ‘self’ to exercise this right either in the South or elsewhere is rarely invoked except in facetious or provocative rhetoric. That the Sudanese (as a whole) have already exercised the RSD in the National Assembly in December 1959 and hence do not
62 or should not exercise it against is an argument still heard from certain quarters. It happens also to be a very weak argument by all accounts.
The exercise of the RSD by the South will result in the separation of the South and hence ‘must not be allowed”. This argument is still loudly echoed outside negotiation circles. Paradoxically it has never been formally presented or defended by any Sudanese political force in any formal negotiations with the South since 1991.
2. Entry
This paper proceeds from the realization that the RSD for the people of the Southern Sudan has been accepted by all the political forces in the Sudan. At least, all the political forces in the country have signed bilateral or multilateral agreements of one sort or the other recognizing the RSD at least of the people of the South.
Differences exist over the inclusion of people outside the Southern Sudan in the exercise of this right, or the choices open to non-Southerners in a self-determination consultation. Importantly, once that basic human and people’s right is conceded to the people of the South, there is no convincing reason to deny it to the other groups in the Sudan.
Yet, despite this apparent unanimity on the RSD for the South, there is an obvious reluctance on the part of the Government of Sudan (GOS) to conclude a formal covenant on such a point and to implement it as per that covenant. This absence of implementable minimum consensus raises doubts about the sincerity of the parties’ acceptance of the RSD. One is reminded of the techniques in pleadings of “admission of avoidance”.
3. RSD Matrix
The following table shows the commitment by various political forces to the RSD with differences in scope and geo-demographic scope of this right.
Date Name of the Self- Parties or Direct Remarks determination Signatories Beneficiaries Agreement Feb 28 Frankfurt SPLM/A Nasir Southern The RSD was not 1992 Agreement faction and GOS Dr Sudanese explicitly used but Lam and Dr Ali the wording clearly Alhag as signatories shows that it was meant.
63 Oct Washington SPLM/A and the People of South Witness was 1993 Declaration SPLM/A United as Sudan within its Congressman Harry represented by Drs borders as of Johnson, then head John Garang and 1.1.1956 of the Congressional Riek Macar sub-committee for respectively Africa. Implicit support by some congressmen of self- determination for the South. May 20 Declaration of SPLM/A; SPLM/A Southern Sudan Prepared by four 1994 Principles (DOPs) United and GOS and others (P.4) members of the P.2 and P.4 IGAD committee on peace in Sudan. Dec Chukudum SPLM/A and Umma Southern The Umma Party 1994 Agreement (self- Party Sudanese rejected the inclusion determination for of the people of the the people of the Nuba mountains and South and those of the Ingessina Hills in Abyei in case they a self-determination happen to decide to consultation be part of the South in a referendum Dec Asmara Agreement All the NDA parties Sudanese People Modifications of 1994 and political forces Chukudum and emphasis on one Sudan June Asmara Agreement 10 NDA parties Southern Indeed, the South 1995 on Issues of political forces and Sudanese and all Sudan based South Destiny. independent national other Sudanese as Sudan Independence Affirmation of the personalities well. Movement (SSIM/A) RSD for the South, applied to join the and extending it to NDA because the people of the Nuba Accord supported the Mountains and RSD for the Southern Ingessina if internal Sudanese. accommodation in Application was one Sudan is not rejected. accepted. April Khartoum Peace Six South Sudan People of the The abortion of this 21 Agreement. Art. 7 Military and South Sudan. Agreement is an 1997 Sect. 10 deals with political formations instructive lesson in the exercise of RSD and the NIF- the techniques of the by the people of the dominated GOS frustrating South agreements in the Sudan
64 Sept Fashoda Agreement SPLM/A United Dr. South Sudanese 1997 Lam Akol and the GOS represented by the then Vice- President El Zubeir Mohamed Saleh 1999 Djibouti Agreement GOS and the Umma Southern First bilateral Party Sudanese agreement between Northern Sudanese leaders to recognise the RSD for the people of the South Feb Memorandum of Representatives of Southern Point 4 of the MOU 20th Understanding the SPLM (Pagan Sudanese affirms the RSD 2001 (MOU) between the Amnom and Yassir general and SPLM and the Arman) and condemns the regime Popular National representatives of for “wriggling” out Conference (PNC) PNC-Omer Al- of its commitments Turabi, and al to this right in Mahboub Abdel previous pacts. Salaam Jan 6th Nairobi Declaration SPLA/M and SPDF. Southern The declaration also 2002 Signatories are Drs. Sudanese and the suggests urgent John Garang and people of the measures for Riek Macar marginalised consolidating the areas. internal front.
4. Background
To be sure, self-determination as a claim has not been new in the political struggle of Southerners. Indeed, the struggle has always posited two demands: social-economic, cultural and political justice within the Sudan, on independent statehood for the South. The latter claim has often but not always been formulated as the right to self- determination RSD.
According to this alternate claim, equity and justice with the Sudan would entail major restructuring of systems and institutions. It would also entail redistribution and sharing of wealth and the means of producing it. Hence, terms such as federation, regional self government, confederation have been used to designated various administrative and constitutional forms of governance needed in the restructuring and redistribution demanded.
65 Responses of the central government of the day have normally been decisive in making the South choose the means and the methods of struggling for its rights. In other words, the nature of the central government response has largely determined whether the South shall resort to violent or peaceful political means in pursuing its stated claims. Invariably violent reaction from the South has often been triggered by central government’s assault on what the South sees as its strategic assets. These assets have often included but not limited to military units (1955), (1983); leadership cadres, (1962), (1964); resources, etc. The Southern demands, under the first military regime (1958- 1964), were self- determination and federalism. The Sudanese exercise the RSD through a parliamentary vote on 19th December 1955. Southern Sudanese members of the then National Assembly agreed to vote for “independence motion” after being formally assured by their Northern Sudanese colleagues that a federal status for the South Sudan shall be considered after the independence”.
A federal demand by the South was later rejected by a predominantly Northern Sudanese parliament. Southerners considered the parliamentary endorsement of the independence motion as a fraud on them. The condition of federalism was rejected. A repressive military regime with an Islamisation and Arabisation agenda for the South, drove Southerners to armed struggle, whose goal was independence for the South. Political forces of the South government controlled areas raised self-determination and federation others espouse “unity” of the Sudan.
5. Self-determination and Separation.
An argument often heard from some Northern Sudanese is that the exercise of the RSD by Southern Sudanese would result in separation and therefore is unacceptable. They probably reach this judgment by putting themselves in the shoes of the Southern Sudan. They also hear it directly or indirectly from Southerners.
However, most forces in the North, do not want to admit the reality of the Sudan as a failed state; a state that has demonstrably failed to forge a consensus on the fundamentals of state and nation building. Such fundamentals include a common consensus on the nature of the state; the primary of human rights and the rule of law; the role of language and culture in nation and state building. This Konsensunfahigkeiz is a reflection of dysfunctional heterogeneity of the Sudan. The policies of various governments, and the present one in particular, have rendered ethnic, religious and cultural differences deeper and irreconcilable.
66 Most Sudanese have not realized that the Southern Sudanese and the people of the marginalised Sudan have paid and are paying dearly for the GOS efforts to maintain the unity of the Sudan. However, the exercise of the RSD need not inexorably lead to separation. The possibility of such an outcome is there but is not the inevitable outcome of the exercise of that right. If the interim period is corrective and addresses structural injustices and adequately compensates for historical wrong, a conducive atmosphere for a self-determination referendum could be created.
Choosing a united Sudan with wide powers of decentralization is not a pre-doomed option. Indeed, there is a constituency for such an option in the South depending largely on how the advocates of a United Sudan present their case, the unionist may win the day in a referendum.
It is the thesis of this paper that the case for self-determination has not optimally been made by beneficiaries and their allies. They have still to do the following:
1) Mobilize and educate people in the issues of self-determination; 2) Gain control over territory and people prior to the exercise of self-determination; 3) Win regional and international support for the RSD cause; 4) Consolidate their popular mandate from their people; 5) Present a credible case of the non-viability of any other option, including various improvements of the status quo; 6) Address in a cooperative and progressive spirit the post referendum situation;
However, most of the forces were traditionally against the RSD for the south or any group of Sudanese for that matter. Indeed, the fact that despite the apparent consensus on at least the RSD, political will to implement this consensus is still lacking. This lack of political will manifests itself in debilitating avoidance tactics. A major, but by no means the only, offender in this tactical game is the GOS.
GOS The GOS initially expressed reservation on point 3.4 of the DOP (i.e., the establishment of a secular state in the Sudan), and on the RSD for the south. However, the GOS team then led by Mohammed Alamin Khalifa with membership of Ali El Haj was accommodating on the issue of RSD.
67 A more rigid team under Ghazi Sallah El Din, who openly rejected both secularism and RSD in the negotiations of September 1995 quickly replaced it. The GOS pulled out of the IGAD peace process, flirted for a while with the Khartoum Peace Agreement and Peace from within.
It was only after the military victories of the SPLM/A over the GOS forces in 1995 and 1997 that the GOS went back to IGAD in August 1997. Its attitude was essentially one of strategic admission, but again one of tactical avoidance.
Indeed, having accepted the RSD for the South under Khartoum Peace Agreement (KPA), The regime could not credibly object to point 2.2 of the DOP. Instead, it contested the definition of the South, trying hard to exclude the Dinka District of Abyei from the South.
With regards to RSD for the southern Sudan, the NIF has no historical of commitment thereto. In fact, it opposed the simple regionalism for the Sudan proposed by the 1968 Draft Constitution Committee and by the All-Political Parties Conference of a year earlier. Consistent to its credo one Islamic Sudan, it opposed the Regional self-rule for the South of 1972-1983 and worked to ensure the abrogation of the Addis Agreement of 1972-1983.
The NIF became a tactical convert to federalism in post-Nimeri Transitional Period (1986) in an attempt to attract regional support for its program of Islamic absolutism. This federalism showed itself as hollow in practice when NIF came to power and began to implement it after 1989.
NIF’s opposition to RSD for the South is consistent with its absolutist ideology, and its commitment to the ‘civilization project.’ NIF manner of eviscerating the KPA 1997 shows its anti-RSD design.
The SPLM/A The SPLM/A is also in a difficult position vis-à-vis RSD for the South Sudan. To be sure, it started in 1983 with unequivocal commitment to a united, new, socialist and democratic Sudan. So strong was the emphasis on the conception of the United Sudan to a degree that some Northern Sudanese suspected a camouflage of separatism by over emphasis on unity. Yet, the SPLM/A New United Sudan call won it support from the North, particularly among African Sudanese in the marginalised regions of northern
68 Sudan. The Nuba, the people of Southern Blue Nile, and even some westerners joined the movement in substantial numbers. They joined it on the basis of a united, just, secular New Sudan.
Most Southern Sudanese join on the basis that the movement provided an opportunity for military and organizational empowerment that can liberate the South from the oppressor. Should the oppressor be defeated all over the Sudan, that eventuality would also be welcome.
The SPLM/A was therefore more composite and desperate in expectation and agendas. Most of these agendas were not publicly or openly articulated.
After the fall of Mengistu, himself a victim of multi-faceted liberation struggle, the internal contradictions of the SPLM/A came to the fore. An important outcome was the split and the open articulation of the separatist and liberation agenda (human rights, rule of law and good governance issues).
Indeed, the independent South agenda, under the banner of RSD for the South, did publicly surface inside Sudan among Southern Sudanese in a GOS-sponsored National Dialogue Conference (October 1989). There, Southern Sudanese re-asserted their right of self-determination to the point of forming an independent state.
The Southern Sudanese memo to that conference underlined the paradox that:
“Islamic fundamentalism which some Muslims view as their ideology of liberation from Western cultural domination should be used as an ideology of oppression and domination of the Muslims vis-ã-vis the Southern Sudanese”
Responding to the difficulty of its composite consistency, the SPLM also adopted the policy of strategic admission and technical avoidance on the RSD issue.
As the table shows, it concluded a bilateral Washington Declaration with SPLM/A United. It was the first affirmation of SPLM/A commitment to RSD for the South since the Torif Minutes of September 1991.
69 6. The First SPLM National Convention
Following its First National Convention in 1994, the SPLM/A averred that:
7.2.1 “The objective of the SPLM is the complete destruction of the oppressive regime of the old Sudan and the building of a free, just democratic, secular New Sudan.
7.2.2 The SPLM is committed to fight and achieve the right and exercise of self determination for the oppressed people of the New Sudan following the demise of the regime of the old Sudan or in any peace talks with the government of the day in Khartoum”.
Some SPLM top cadres have been cautious in pronouncing themselves publicly for RSD for the people of South Sudan. At other fora, particularly in Egypt and Libya, some SPLM/A members would avoid affirmative reference to RSD. Their support for the Joint Libyan/Egyptian Initiative (Sept 2000) which conspicuously omits any reference to the RSD the South and the establishment of a secular Sudan, could also be seen as tactical avoidance technique. On the other hand, the affirmation of the RSD for Southern Sudan, the people of the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile by the Leadership Council in November 2001 and in the recent Nairobi Declaration of January 6, 2002 were well received by the members of the Movement and by the people concerned.
Other political forces and military formations have yet emerge from the tactics of self- determination. Most political forces and personalities from the marginalised regions of the Sudan would rather not have RSD exercised by the South or any group in the Sudan for that matter. Some argue, with justice, that they joined the SPLA-led struggle because of its unionist and new deal agenda. Others say that if RSD must be exercised, it should be exercised by all, but sequentially. Still other say that the struggle for justice and emancipation for the oppressed of the Sudan outside the South Sudan must and can go on despite which way the South goes. What has yet to emerge in this debate is a covenanted blue print of the Sudan under Point 3 of the DOPs.
70 Conclusion
A careful reading of the IGAD-initiated Declaration of Principles (DOPs) reveals two key instances of the exercise of the RSD. Point 2.2 thereof affirms the RSD for the people of the Southern Sudan through a referendum. Point 3, with its seven subsections, lays down the principles and elements on which a new, united Sudan should be based. These include secularism, equitable sharing of power and resources, equality before the law, wide measures of decentralization etc. Then comes Point 4. It avers that in absence of an agreement on the seven elements and principles listed under Point 3
“...the respective people will have the option to determine their future including independence, through a referendum”.
In other words lack of agreement on peace and governance in the Sudan is not the end of the world. On the contrary, it is the beginning of a general process of the right of self- determination by the respective people of the Sudan. Accordingly, the strategy of admission and avoidance may be good politics but is demonstrably bad statesmanship. And this is sadly the case particularly if we accept the rule of thumb definition that “a politician is the one who thinks only of the next election. A statesman or rather a statesperson on the other hand also thinks and works for the next generation.”
71 b. Summary of discussion
1. Self-determination could also be understood as people’s right, a right which may be exercised at any time by any people. The Nuba Mountains has recently benefited from an agreement between the GOS, SPLA/M and the USA. In addition to this agreement, the people of Nuba also want to decide their future. When and if that time comes, they want the right to choose self-determination. The people of the Nuba Mountains are living in an area between the South and North with multiple tribes, not just Nuba people. All the tribes who share this area are suffering. They need to be able to choose which side they want to be part of and have a say whether they want to be independent or not.
2. Self-determination does not automatically mean two separate countries. The SPLM/A and other parties are not working towards a separate state in the south. The other marginalised people, the Nuba and the Beja, should also be part of this process of self-determination. Through negotiation and democracy there should be no difficulties in coming to an agreement which will be good for everyone. Many terms mean different things to different Sudanese, for example whether self-determination is equal to separation. The people on the streets of Khartoum assume that self- determination would mean separation and they do not believe that the GOS has the right to split the country. There has never been consideration, in a practical and meaningful way, of what we are committing ourselves to. What are the consequences going to be – what are the next steps?
3. There has never been serious dialogue on the various sticking points- IGAD is not a forum where serious dialogue can take place. The realities of the situation in the Sudan need to be discussed more openly in order to move the peace process forward. Confederation is a solution for the south. These matters need to be discussed whilst there is not a threat of war or intervention. Time is required. Real solutions need to be offered. There needs to be greater understanding about what each group is suggesting. A very prominent British political observer of the Sudan said that the Sudanese are masters of ‘la politique pur’. This is true, but it doesn’t unify the country. There are options – independence, secession, federalism / confederation. Self-determination does not just mean separation. The SPLA/M are not working directly for a separate south. There is a free choice and everyone must be prepared for that.
4. The historical background is very important and needs to be aired. The root problems of the north / south divide have not yet been addressed. In 1947 the problem was there and manifested itself in the proceedings of the Juba Conference. At that time they considered whether southern Sudan should send southerners to the north to decide whether they should overthrow the colonialists. Already then there were grievances at the Juba Conference. It became focused on whether the Southerners should agree to unity with the north. In 1955 there was a mutiny. The 1972 agreement was dishonoured in 1983. The issue of self-determination always makes
72 the northerners try to be sensitive because they are concerned that the south wants to go their own way.
5. Before 1989 there was no mention of self-determination. Apparently since 1996 all political parties have endorsed self-determination. The apparent Sudanese consensus on self-determination is a strategic admission. Most parties came to the conclusion that it is the right political option. Others felt it would be unwise to confront it with outright objections but thought that having agreed they will be able to wriggle out. What can proceed from this consensus? Commitment to dialogue is stronger than ever and gaining momentum. There is a will for peace. That is a credit to the Sudanese. It should be recognised. There are credible forms and visible changes. People appear to feel intimidated. Those who are positive about the unity of Sudan seem to appear guilty. There is fear about the separation of the country. Every political party has signed agreements for self-determination. This is not being challenged. If the country can stay together and address the grievances of Southerners then Sudan would benefit. There needs to be a practical list of everything which appeases everyone. If this not attempted then the Sudan may as well part now. Separation could be chosen as a last resort.
6. There are many Southern Sudanese in the North of Sudan. Some went there because they couldn’t find livelihoods in the south; these people are likely to go back when they can, even if it has to be walking all the way. The presence of the Southern Sudanese in the North is not an endorsement of what is happening in the North. They are in trouble and fleeing to the nearest safe place. The test will be if things return to normal and they remain in the north.
7. Federalism is a good exercise, when applied in an idealistic way it can be built upon. It is good to try and have some sort of federalism. The benefits for education, for example, are 32 universities – one for each state. Sudan cannot wait for ideal opportunities. It is the post referendum scenario that you need to start from. Self- determination is very clear – in whatever end it takes Sudan to – it is an obligation to agree with it.
8. The younger generation needs to be catered for. They need to be understood. Many younger northerners want secession because they see how the struggle is wearing down the country.
9. The nine points of the Libyan/Egyptian initiative bind the Government; these do not include self-determination. There needs to be clarity on the political consensus on self-determination. The Egyptian influence in the Sudan needs to be recognised. Furthermore international guarantors must be called to ensure that the will of the people is really expressed.
10. One of the practical issues is the timing of a referendum. It needs to be when temperaments are cooled down and when a cease-fire is successful. There need to be talks about how to choose this time – the time will determine the result – secession or
73 unity (dependent on war status). The challenge for us all is how to define self- determination so that we can discuss it seriously and avoid all this conflict? We should not be shocked that the south is calling for secession. If it brings peace then we will talk about it. This must not be delayed. If technical avoidance is being played there must be something better. There needs to be a move away from the politique pur so that Sudan goes beyond the short-term tactics of politics. Self-determination is something to work for – it is planned for – not something that will just come. It is common wisdom that that the war will not be won by military means.
11. Imposition of Shari’ah law as the law in the Sudan led to talk of self-determination because those who would then have become second class citizens wanted to leave. Self-determination may lead to secession and therefore people are scared. There must be a separation of state and religion. The root of this problem is religion and state – and this is what needs to be remembered.
12. For most people, justice is more important than unity in the Sudan. If we get the justice equation correct, the unity equation will take care of itself. Neither side can win the current war. But winning means different things to different groups. The guerrilla wins if he doesn’t lose. The government loses if it doesn’t win. Meanwhile many observers believe that Sudan is a failed state. You cannot be proud of a failed state. A failed state is where the people do not reach consensus of language, custom, human rights and the rule of law. What we need is a Sudan to become a liveable common house.
74 4. Sudan Hydrocarbon Resources a. Paper Presented by Dr. A. R. O. Abdel Rahman
S y n o p s i s
Early data did not indicate the presence of hydrocarbons in the Sudan. The Red Sea coastal areas were the exception; hence all exploration efforts since 1956 were concentrated in this area. Chevron made their first discoveries in the Red Sea, followed by others in Central and South Central Sudan in 1979. Reserves increased through additional discoveries. Plans to build a pipeline and start production and exports were delayed through the various factors, including armed conflict, a drop in the oil prices and the opening of better opportunities elsewhere. The length and cost of the export pipeline were handicaps. Chevron, having ceased operating in 1984 and being unable to return, finally came to an amicable settlement with the Government in 1991. They were to designate a third party to operate on their behalf; they chose to sell off to the third party. Concorp took over and later passed the concession to the Government. In 1993, State Petroleum Corporation contracted a small part of the area previously held by Chevron, operated it for three years without incident, developed and produced 24000 BOPD from Heglig and increased the reserves. By agreement, new partners joined in. Exploration was intensified, the Export Pipeline was realised and the first vessel left Bashayer Marine Terminal Sept 1st 1999. Exploration and production agreements were successively reached in other blocks. The type of agreement used is Production Sharing. Negotiations are free, transparent and without incumbrances. Contractors have the freedom of operations under a work programme and budget, and are guided by Accounting Procedures and Limits of Authority. The Petroleum Resources Act 1998 regulates the conduct of work in the Oil Sector. It is headed by the President, assisted by a mini-cabinet and a group of experts. The approval of agreements by the Council for Oil Affairs is mandatory but is speedily done. Marketing was initially done through a broker to find a place for the Nile Blend. The Contractor and the Government independently market their oil. The Government uses tendering with participation by international companies under an FOB pricing formula based on MINAS. The proceeds from the letters of credit are received by the Bank of Sudan. Local distribution of products is gradually approaching a Free Market with several national and international companies involved.
75
SUDAN HYDROCARBON RESOURCES
LIST OF CONTENTS
UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Outlines of the Geology of Sudan Geological Setting Structural Setting History of Oil Exploration in the Sudan Chevron The Oil would not flow The Amicable Settlement with Chevron Concorp State Petroleum Corporation The Consortium The Potential
EXPLORATION AGREEMENTS Types of Agreements Duration Work Programme and Budget Production Sharing Cost Oil and Amortization of Costs Profit Oil Splits and Production Levels Relinquishment Bonuses Tax and Customs Exemptions Law, Jurisdiction and Arbitration Freedom of Operations Employment of Sudanese Nationals Safety and the Environment Points of Comfort Guarantees Approvals Exploration Results and Forecasts
76 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK The Petroleum Resources Act The Council of Oil Affairs The Minister The Oil Exploration and Production Authority (OEPA) The Joint Coordination Committee Obtaining a Concession in the Sudan Negotiating an Agreement
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS Refineries Port Sudan Refinery Khartoum Refinery Al Obeid Refinery Abu-Gabra Refinery Concorp Refinery
Lubricants Other Petrochemical Industries Transportation Crude Oil Pipeline Products Pipeline Road and Rail Transport
MARKETING Local Marketing Pricing Marketing Companies International Marketing The Proceeds
FIGURES Figure 1. Sudan Geological Map. Figure 2. Sudan Concessions Map. Table 1. Blocks under Concession Agreements. Table 2. Work Programmes. Table 3. Reserves. Table 4. Production. Table 5. Suakin and Bashayer Reserves.
77 UPSTREAM OPERATONS
Outlines of the Geology of Sudan1 Reference is made to Figures 1, the Geological Map of the Sudan.1
Geological Setting
• The geology of the Sudan is extremely diverse with a variety of metamorphic, igneous and sedimentary rocks. • Three metamorphic belts have been recognized: 1. South Equatoria 2. Central Sudan and Nile valley. 3. Red Sea. • The gravity, seismic and drilling data acquired in interior Sudan basins indicated that more than 30,000 ft of clastic sediments occur within the deepest central trough of the three major basins. • The sediments are interbedded Sandstones, Claystones, Siltstones, Mudstones and Shales. • Abu Gabra Formation (Darfor group member), Amal and Tendi formations are the principal reservoir rocks. • Yabous formation is uncertain, but seems to be during the mid-Cretaceous to early Tertiary period in the Muglad basin, and during mid to late Cretaceous in Melut basin. • The present temperature gradients over these basins are normal and no over pressure zones have been recorded so far.
Structural Setting
• The interior Sudan Basins are related in their evolution to the West and Central African Rift systems (late Jurassic to early Cretaceous). • The structural development of the Muglad Basin is marked by three major rift cycles, and sagging characterized by a coursing upward sequence of clastic sediments; those are:
(1) Early rifting (late Jurasic-early Cretaceous). (2) Intermediate rifting (Senonian-Turanism) is associated with minor volcanism. (3) Late rifting (late Eocene-Oilgcene). (4) Sagging (middle Miocene). (5) Muglad, Melut and Blue Nile are the three major sedimentary basins.
History of oil exploration in the Sudan2
Before independence in 1956, the belief by the British, one of the colonizing parties, was that the Sudan as a whole does not have any prospects of hydrocarbons, perhaps with the
78 exception of the Red Sea coastal areas. Hence, it is evident from the chronology of the history below that the early exploration efforts were concentrated in the Red Sea Areas:
• In the late fifties Agip of Italy was granted the first exploration permit in the Red Sea Area. • Agip was followed by other companies without success. • 1975-1977 Chevron made the first discoveries of gas and condensate of Bashair and Suakin in the Red Sea Area. • 1975 Chevron moved to the Central and South Central Sudan and obtained a concession of over half a million square kilometers. • 1979 Chevron started drilling operations and made the first discovery at Abu Gabra in the north west of the Muglad basin. • 1980 Chevron made discoveries in the Unity, Heglig, Talih, Sharif, Adar and Adar Yale fields. • 1980 Total (France) signed an Exploration and Production Agreement for Blocks B and C. • 1982 Sun Oil obtained a concession in Central and North Central Sudan. One of its six wells had shows. In 1990 Sun Oil relinquished the concession. • 1984, after the incident at Rabcona, Chevron abandoned operations and claimed force majeure. • 1991 Chevron and the Government met to look into resumption of operations. • 1992 Chevron assigned its concession, with the approval of the Government, to the Sudanese Company Concorp. Concorp later handed the concession over to the Government. • 1993 State Petroleum Corporation, a small Canadian company, obtained a small part of the Chevron concession comprising Unity, Heglig and Kaikang. Areas encompassing previous Chevron discoveries and several prospects, regarded as the most promising of the areas that were held by Chevron. • 1995, Gulf Petroleum Company signed a Development Agreement for the Adar Yale field in Block 3d. • 1995 China National Petroleum Company, CNPC, signed an Agreement for Block 6. • 1996 (June) State petroleum developed Heglig Field for an output of obout 24,000 BOPD. • 1996 (November) a consortium of CNPC, Petronas, State Petroleum and Sudapet took over the concession of State Petroleum through a new Agreement. • 1997 (Feb) IPC (Lundin Oil) Petronas, Sudapet, and later OMV (Austria) signed an EPSA for Block 5A. • 2000 (Nov) Gulf, CNPC, Al Thani and Sudapet signed an amendment of the Agreement for Blocks 3 &7. • 2001 (Jan) Petronas, Lundin, OMV and Sudapet signed another Agreement for Block 5B. • 2002 (Jan) Slavneft and Sudapet signed an EPSA for Bock 9.3
79 Chevron3
1975-1977, Chevron made the first discoveries of gas and condensate in the fields of Bashayer and Suakin in the Red Sea Blocks.2 Having relinquished the Red Sea area and moved to the vast central and south central Sudan, Chevron made history by the early discoveries in Sharif and Abu Gabra, and reversed the theories that the inner continental basins of the Sudan did not contain any hydrocarbons. On the other hand, the extreme faults in the northern part of the Muglad Basin increased the risk factor. The move to the south east of the Basin was much more rewarding. The discoveries positively altered the success rate to become 1:3 and better. At Unity almost seven out of every eight wells drilled were a success. Plans were made for a pipeline to carry about 200000 BOPD and a 25000-BPD refinery at Kosti to satisfy the local demand. The length of the pipeline from Unity to the Red Sea coast was about 1640 km, a true burden on the cost of oil. Chevron and the Government chose to establish a separate company, the White Nile Company, to own and operate the pipeline with equal share holding for both parties. The export plans were not realized!
The Oil Would Not Flow
The Addis Ababa Accord in 1972, which made peace and stability possible, divided northern Sudan into six states and Southern Sudan into three states, with the Central Government at Khartoum and a Regional Government at Juba. In 1983, General Numairi, the president of the Sudan at the time, decided to offer a measure of self government to minorities by further subdividing the Northern and Southern states. The idea was not acceptable in the south and the first spark was generated and fire spread. In September 1983, General Numairi decided to implement Islamic Sharia Law, a step that exacerbated the situation. Numairi withstood enormous political pressures and maintained his stand. The oil would not flow. In February 1984, Chevron camp at Rabcona came under fire from factions opposing the Government. The incidented lasted for about three minutes. The next morning, Chevron made an announcement, ceased operations, evacuated, claimed force majeure and was never to return to operations. The oil prices crashed; the economics were destroyed.
80 The Soviet Union opened doors. American companies were encouraged to take over the oil fields. The fields were ready to develop with favourable terms. The returns seemed better than their EPSA in the Sudan.
The Amicable Settlement with Chevron3
The downfall of Numairi in 1985 through a popular uprising, was followed by a transitional Government for one year, led by General Sowar Al Dahab. The general elections that followed brought in a coalition government led by Saddig Al Mahdi. The period that followed was reminiscent of the pre-Numairi period, and led to the same consequences of a military take-over on 30th June 1989. Various calls were made on Chevron to return and resume operations, but to no avail. In 1990 the Government of General Beshir called Chevron to a meeting in Khartoum to discuss the issues and mitigate the situation in an attempt to resume operations. The call was answered a year later. In June 1991 a meeting was held in Khartoum. The parties met in a cordial atmosphere. The Government understood the worries of Chevron, that a responsible company would not knowingly put its employees and human life at risk. On the other hand, Chevron understood the urgency of the Government that inherited a difficult financial situation. Their income would not cater for the base requirements, which included an oil bill of more the 300 million dollars a year. The development of the discoveries at Unity and Heglig could give the Sudanese nation a much needed dose to ease the economy and provide for relief in an era of rationing in almost all essentials. The alternatives were not easy to adopt. The resumption of operations by Chevron was the first choice for the Government, but at the time was the impossible for Chevron. The second alternative was to find a third party that will be willing to operate knowing the security level in the area. Both parties later agreed to this alternative and started looking for a party to takeover. The third alternative was for the Sudan Government to terminate the contract and challenge the force majeure presumption. Neither party was willing to take this option.
Concorp3
Having agreed with the Government on a third party to operate, Chevron was later willing to end it all and sell off to to a third party. The assignment by Chevron of its rights and obligations in the contract to another party would require the approval of Government. A small Sudanese petroleum company solicited the provisional approval of the Ministry of Energy and Mining to approach Chevron. Hence, Concorp was assured of obtaining
81 the final approval of Government. A deal was then worked between Chevron and Concorp and was concluded in October 1992. A year later, in October 1993, Concorp handed over the Concession to the Government. The Government regained the land; but they are yet to resolve the pipeline enigma.
State Petroleum Corporation3
A small Canadian company with limited risk capital (own equity) signed an agreement for Blocks 1, 2 & 4. During the first term of the exploration period, State was obligated to develop Heglig field for 25000 BOPD and carry out a limited exploration programme. An export pipeline was not in their Agreement. This was in line with Government strong belief to exclude the pipeline costs from the cost oil. State Petroleum was able to achieve the development programme but failed to execute the total exploration programme. State, however, did increase the recoverable reserves through new discoveries, further emphasising the high potential of the area. It became evident that the increased potential and consequently an increased production would necessitate the construction of an export crude oil line as a separate Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement (COPA). Hence, in August 96, the Government and State Petroleum signed a memorandum of understanding to introduce partners of financial and technical capabilities to provide assistance to State and execute the desired Government objectives.
The Consortium3
CNPC of China and Petronas of Malaysia joined State Petroleum along with Sudapet, a wholly owned Government company, in a consortium for Blocks 1, 2 & 4. It was conditional that each company should take a share in the Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement (COPA) equal to their share in the EPSA. The Parties were to form a company for the Pipeline and Marine Terminal independent from the EPSA. The company was to own and operate the pipeline with reasonable returns on their investment. The Parties were given an exclusive right over the route, subject to provisions which included assigning 40% of the Pipeline capacity to third parties, expanding the capacity when required by third parties and use the Pipeline as a common carrier. The spare capacity in the pipeline was an added benefit and an element of encouragement for other parties with interest in the blocks around. The enigma was resolved, the vision a reality and the stage was set for crude oil exports.
82 The Potential
Several companies, before and after the Consortium, signed agreements for concessions in the Sudan. The existence of a utility for transporting the oil for export has made it more attractive. Figure 2 shows the distribution and layout of the concession blocks in the Sudan.2 Table 1 shows the companies and the dates of agreement.3 Table 2 shows the past, present and forecast for work programmes for the blocks.3 Table 3 shows the oil in place and the recoverable reserves.3 Table 4 shows the level of production and the future forecast.3
EXPLORATION AGREEMENTS4
Types of Agreements
The type of agreement adopted by the Sudan Government is a Production Sharing type. Oil produced is split in agreed percentages between the cost oil, which is utilised by the Contractor to recover its operating, exploration and development costs, and profit oil which is shared between Government and Contractor. The Government also adopted a text for the Model Agreement. All other fiscal parameters would be agreed upon between Government and Contractor in free and open negotiations. Prior to negotiations, the Contractor must have been technically and commercially pre-qualified.
Duration
The exploration period is a maximum of six (6) years divisible into two or three Terms by agreement between the parties. The production period is twenty (20) years extendable by a further five (5) years. However, in case the life of a field exceeds this period, the parties would consider the possibilities of a further extension in the light of the expected costs and revenues.
Work Programme and Budget
The Government will generally be interested in examining the worthiness of the programme in order to improve the existing data, provide for work to cover the whole contract area in 2D seismic, 3D seismic exploratory drilling and delineation of discoveries. A provision for an exit policy for the Contractor would be considered within the budget provisions for the work programme.
83 Production Sharing
As stated above, the apportionment of the average daily production into cost oil, contractor profit oil and Government profit oil is of paramount importance.
Cost Oil and Amortization of Costs
The cost oil is assigned taking into consideration a percentage of the average daily production, in line with various parameters affecting the generated revenue, the expected cost to be incurred up to start of production, and the amortization period in line with international trends, is an important item for discussion. The effect of the special nature of the Contract Area and the cost oil cannot be overlooked. The amortization period is 4- 5 years, (i.e. 25% - 20%).
Profit Oil Splits and Production Levels
The profit oil split would take into consideration the area and the geological risk. The average daily production segments are of a wide range, providing Government with increasing share of the profit oil with increased production.
Relinquishment
At the end of each Term of the exploration period, the Contractor will be obligated to relinquish a percentage of the Contract Area. This is a mandatory measure forcing the Contractor to work diligently.
Bonuses
Various bonuses, such as signature, assignment, production, training and social services are part of the fiscal parameters in the agreements. So far the Government has adopted a policy of allowing the minimal possible bonuses, especially the signature bonus, to allow the Contractor the advantage of spending the money on the programme. However the Government expects the late recovery of its dues when considering the profit oil splits. This is done without its dues when considering profit oil splits. This is done without disregarding the essence of bonuses as an indication of the commitment by the Contractor.
Tax and Customs Exemptions
The Contractor is exempt from custom duties on all items used in petroleum operations. The Contractor is also exempt from payment of taxes, which the Government pays on his
84 behalf out of the share of the Government of the profit oil. The filing of tax forms by the Contractor is a formality to enable the Contractor obtain a certificate acknowledging payment of taxes. Subcontractors and expatriate employees of the Contractor are also exempt from taxes, and employees have other limited customs exemptions.
Law, Jurisdiction and Arbitration
The Sudanese Law, comparable to the English Law, is the ruling Law, and Sudan is the jurisdiction. Arbitration, however, is in accordance with UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules. The venue can be in a country other than Sudan, but shall not be to the domicile of party, its parents or affiliates.
Freedom of Operations
Guided by the work programme and budget, which are approved by Government, a wide range of financial limits of authority and the accounting procedures, the Contractor has full freedom of operation.
Employment of Sudanese Nationals
To the benefit of the Sudanese and the Contractor, agreements would contain targets, as a percentage of the total of employees, for the employment of Sudanese Nationals. The Contractor is required to conduct the operations in a business-like manner. Employment shall be in accordance with the prescribed qualifications and experience.
Safety and the Environment
The Contractor is responsible for the safety of operations, good house keeping and the cleanliness of the environment. Proper insurance and indemnities will be required.
Points of Comfort
In an effort to alleviate any possible worries of the Contractor, the Agreement would contain clauses for the ability of the Contractor to freely repatriate its capital and profits. It would also contain clauses prohibiting the Government from appropriation, confiscation, nationalization or the like. The Exploration and Production Sharing Agreements would supersede any laws or ordinances not in effect at the time of signature.
85 Guarantees
Suitable Bank or Parent Company Guarantee is required for the effective execution of an EPSA.
Approvals
The approval of the Council for Oil Affairs is necessary for the Agreement to be put into effect. However, extraordinary meetings are usually speedily arranged.
Exploration Results and Forecasts
The results of the exploration programmes executed in the Sudan are summarized in the attached Tables 2, 3 & 4.
INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK5
The Petroleum Resources Act
The Petroleum business, including exploration, is conducted under the Petroleum Resources Act 1998, which is an amendment of the Act issued in 1972. The Act sets the basic framework for Exploration and Production Agreements and the roles and duties of those administering the Act.
The Council of Oil Affairs
This is a mini-cabinet headed by the President and comprising five key cabinet ministers and six experts. The Council is the highest body in the administrative framework of the oil sector. Among its roles are: -
Settling policies, objectives and plans for the oil industry. Issuing by-laws to regulate the industry. Approval of Production Sharing Agreements. Structuring the Sudan Oil Corporation (SOC). Approving tax and custom exemptions for contractors.
The Minister
The Minister of Energy and Mining, who is the vice-chairman of the Council for Oil Affairs, is the top executive for oil affairs and the agreements within it. Under the agreements, the accounting procedures and limits of authority, he approves the Work
86 Programme and Budget, approves expenditure above the limit of five million dollars and is the reference for all matters concerning an EPSA.
The Oil Exploration and Production Authority (OEPA)
The OEPA is the department within the Ministry of Energy and Mining entrusted with the co-ordination, supervision and assistance to the Contractor. It advises the Minister on all items requiring his decision. They are the single entity the Contractor deals with including matters with departments in other Ministries such as immigration, customs, taxation, etc.
The Joint Coordination Committee
A body formed by the EPSA comprising four members from the Ministry and four from the Contractor. They review and endorse the Work Programme and Budget for the approval of the Minister. They also approve, within the Work Programme and Budget, contractor expenses for items in excess of the limit of authority of Contractor in accordance with the Accounting Procedures.
Obtaining a Concession in the Sudan
Subject to the proper pre-qualification of a company and an introductory letter to the Minister, the Minister may extend an invitation to company to depute some of their technical personnel to review the preliminary data in a specific block or several blocks. Having decided upon a block, further data may be obtained at cost under a Confidentiality Agreement. On communicating a firm interest in a block to the Minister, a model EPSA draft will be given to contractor for the purpose of perusal and advancing the fiscal parameters to Government. If the proposal is within reasonable limits of acceptance, the contractor will be asked to start negotiating these parameters, which, when agreed by both parties, would render agreement on the text a simple task. Perhaps better terms are obtained by Government when a block is offered through a licensing round. More blocks are being offered for concessions in this second mode. This process will continue when the present contractors relinquish areas with known potential. Figure 3 shows the designated Blocks. Table 1 shows the status of these Blocks.
Negotiating an Agreement
It is only natural that negotiations for EPSAs are conducted in Khartoum. It is comforting to know that Government negotiators are free to conduct the process, but their
87 result are subject to review by the Minister and his staff. The atmosphere is cordial, the negotiators honest and uninhibited. A schedule is generally drawn up to the signature of an agreement. Once negotiations start, the Ministry will close the doors on other suitors for the block.
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS3
Refineries
Port Sudan Refinery
This 25000 BPD refinery was originally built by Shell in 1964. It is an old technology simple refinery with a capacity of, of without complexities built on. It supplied 50% of the needs of the Sudan for petroleum products. After the sudden and sharp increase in oil prices in 1973, distribution companies failed to supply the needs of the country and the Government resorted to partnerships to enable the provision of petroleum products. The government, who was then able to supply crude oil through bilateral agreements with other Governments, bought a 50% shareholding in the Port Sudan Refinery Company. Port Sudan Refinery is presently preserved awaiting plans for its upgrading as an export refinery.
Khartoum Refinery
This is a 50000-BPD complex refinery built as a joint venture of equal partnership between the Ministry of Energy and Mining and CNPC. The refinery started up in Feb. 2000. The majority of its products output meet the required local demand, with slight surplus for export. The shortfall is in gas oil. No residue is produced, hence the continued operation of the Al Obeid Refinery to provide fuel oil for the industry and for power generation. The equal partnership will diminish for CNPC to 10% and shall remain so thereafter. CNPC would then have recovered their expenses and returns on their investment. Conceptual design is complete for its expansion to 100000 BPD to include other needed processes.
Al Obeid Refinery
Al Obeid Refinery is a 10000-BPD simple refinery, which was purchased second hand in 1996 and installed to utilize some of the crude oil produced the development of Heglig field. More than 60% of its product slate is fuel oil which makes it uneconomical to run
88 when crude oil prices are higher than 20 $/BBL. Its operation, however, is important for the local supply of fuel oil.
Abu-Gabra Refinery
A small 2000-BPD refinery installed in 1993 to utilize the small production from Sharif and Abu Gabra fields to satisfy the local demand in the Far West of the Sudan.
Concorp Refinery
A 10,000 BPD second hand refinery, upgraded and renovated by Concorp Company and installed at Khartoum to utilize a blend of Light Arabian and Sudanese Crude Oil from Block 3d. The refinery is currently shut down.
Lubricants
Various lubricant blending plants exist to blend brands for local consumption and export to neighbouring countries. Base oils are not produced in the Sudan at present.
Other Petrochemical Industries
Except for a small plant for Polypropelene by CNPC, commissioned on 15th. January 2002, there are no petrochemical industries in the Sudan.
Transportation
Crude Oil Pipeline
The above mentioned pipeline was constructed at a cost of 1206 million USD for the length of 1530 km. and a line size of 28 inches. All contracts were awarded between Sept. 97 and end of Dec. 97. In June 99 production was raised from 24000 BOPD, achieved in 1996, to 50000 BOPD to start the line filling process. Throughput then reached an average of 150000 BOPD in August. The first vessel sailed from the Marine Terminal on August 31st.1999. The design was based on three pumping stations for 150,000 BOPD, six stations for 250,000 BOPD and eleven stations for 450,000 BOPD. The slight increase in the operating capacity, over the design capacity, is attributed to the improved flow properties of the crude oil. At present the line operates with five stations for a through-put of 235,000 BOPD. Currently installing the sixth stations for a flow of 300,000 BOPD. Increasing the
89 capacity to 500,000 BOPD awaits the admission of oil from other blocks envisaged by the third quarter 2003.
Products Pipeline
An 8-inch line constructed in 1975 to transport light products from Port Sudan to Khartoum. After the start-up of Khartoum Refinery, the line operates from Al Rawyan, 75 km north of Khartoum. The north-eastern sector from Al Rawyan to Port Sudan is for export of surplus products. The Southern sector from Al Rawyan to Shagara carries products for local consumption. Plans to extend to other major areas of consumption are under consideration.
Road and Rail Transport
Most of the fuel for power stations is transported by rail. Road and Rail transportation represents about 75 % of the requirements for transporting products for local consumption.
MARKETING3
Local Marketing
Pricing
For a long time, the Government subsidised the prices of petroleum products especially Gas oil (Diesel fuel), which is used for agriculture, transportation, power generation and other uses. The subsidy was gradually lifted especially regarding Jet fuel, aviation gas, motor gasoline, kerosene and butane. Most recently, the Government increased the prices of Mogas and Gas oil to international oil price levels. This is considered necessary to balance the dwindling oil prices, curb smuggling of these products across the boarders, and provide for a free market pricing policy.
Marketing Companies
Sudan was previously dominated in the retail and distribution of products by four major companies, Shell, Total, Mobil and Agip. After the increase in oil prices in 1973, the marketing companies failed to provide the necessary imports. The Government, at the time, was forced to obtain crude oil from other countries through bilateral agreements. This led to a 50% participation in TOTAL Distribution Company in 1975.
90 The Government dictated the margins obtainable in the distribution of petroleum products. They were generally low compared to the other countries and inadequate for the renewal of assets or a reasonable return on investment. However, with more products in the free market, the production of crude oil in the Sudan and the start-up of the Khartoum Refinery, more companies have joined in the distribution of products; some local, others foreign.
International Marketing
At the beginning of crude oil export, the Government and the Contractor chose to use an international company for the sale of crude oil. The idea is to use an expert company with known customers in order to find a place in the market for the Nile Blend, the Sudanese crude oil. The company was used for a limited period. Thereafter, Government and the Contractor chose to sell their crude oil themselves. The Nile Blend did find a place in the market assisted by its quality of low sulphur, low salt and low metallic deposits. The Government in the sale of crude oil uses a process of tendering by international bidders. Pre-qualified companies are invited to bid. All dealings are transparent and at arms’ length. Similar tenders are made for surplus products, which are sold off from time to time. The span of tendering initially was about three months. It was later increased to six months and could be increased to one year subject to an evaluation of the benefits accruing to the Government.
The Proceeds6
The sale of crude oil and products is conducted by the Ministry of Energy and Mining, over seen by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Sudan. The usual letters of credit apply and the Bank of Sudan receives the proceeds. An audit by International Financial Institutions is readily available and easy to conduct. The figures forecast were published for the year 2000 (2001 figures are not audited). 65 MMSTB were produced giving the Government 31 MMSTB. It generated a gross revenue of about 711 million USD equivalent to 189.5 Billion Sudanese Dinars. 143.8 Billion Sudanese Dinars was the net revenue after deductions for the Refinery, changes in stocks, subsidies and SPC commission. The utilization included repayments to International Institutions, Regional States, developments, agriculture and social subsidies.
91 The production for 2001 was 76.3 MMSTB, but due to lower crude oil prices, the revenue for 2001 and forecast for 2002 are lower than 2000. However, 2003 forecast is expected to be greater than 2000 since the Contractor will have recovered the major expenses accumulated before the start of production. Depending on oil prices, the increase could be from 50% to 60% of the level of 2000.
REFERENCES
1 The Ministry of Energy and Mining: Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production Prospects in Sudan, 2000.
2 The Ministry of Energy and Mining: Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production Prospects in Sudan, 2001.
3 The Ministry of Energy and Mining: Various records, reports, minutes of meetings, maps and logs.
4 The Ministry of Energy and Mining: Model Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement.
5 The Petroleum Resources Act 1998.
6 Ministry of Finance, The Impact of Oil Discovery on the Sudanese Economy, 2001.
92 93 FIGURE 2
SUDAN OIL AND GAS CONCESSION MAP
94
TABLE 1
BLOCKS UNDERCONCESSION AGREEMENTS
SR. BLOCK STATUS COMPANY DATE REMARKS NO. 1 1, 2 & 4 OCCUPIED CNPC, Petronas, Talisman and Sudapet. NOV. 1996 2 3 & 7 OCCUPIED Gulf, CNPC, AL Thani and Sudapet. NOV. 2000 3 5A OCCUPIED Lundin Oil, Petronas, OMV and Sudapet. FEB. 1997 4 5B OCCUPIED Petronas, Lundin Oil, OMV and Sudapet. JAN. 2001 5 6 OCCUPIED CNPC. SEP. 1995 6 8 &12 FREE UNDER PROMOTION JAN. 2002 10 COMPANIES 7 9 OCCUPIED Slavneft and Sudapet. 8 10 & 11 FREE 9 13 & 14 FREE 10 15 FREE UNDER STUDY 11 B OCCUPIED Total. 1980 12 C FREE
95 TABLE 2
WORK PROGRAMME
PAST WORK CURRENT WORK FORECAST( 3 YRS) 2D 3D EXP. DEV. 2D 3D EXP. DEV. 2D 3D EXP. DEV.
BLOCK km sq km WELL WELL km sq km WELL WELL km sq km WELL WELL REMARKS 1 5430 126 10 21 1283 1295 45 95 0 0 5 1 2 5554 128 14 14 3532 360 23 55 0 0 4 1 4 8062 0 4 1 8168 0 17 6 1300 0 13 0 3 & 7 3000 0 3 2 2500 215 2 0 6000 900 12 22 5A 3000 0 1 0 900 300 3 0 1485 180 3 5 5B 2940 0 0 0 2940 0 0 0 1000 0 3 0 6 10317 0 30 0 500 435 10 0 849 815 14 27 8 1576 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PROMOTION 9 2300 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1700 0 6 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PROMOTION 13 3400 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 10048 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 B 1679 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SUSPENDED C 1277 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
96
TABLE 3
RESERVES
CURRENT (DEC 20010 FORECAST ( 3 YEARS )
ORIGINAL OIL RECOVERABLE ORIGINAL OIL RECOVERABLE IN PLACE RESERVES IN PLACE RESERVES BLOCK
MMSTB MMSTB MMSTB MMSTB
1A 1,042.0 318.7 1,226.0 367.5
1B 821.6 184.5 0.0 0.0
2A 543.3 67.9 792.9 110.9
2B 677.4 115.6 738.3 129.0
4 37.7 7.5 61.4 14.6
5A 1,005.0 116.3
6 950.0 366.0
TABLE 4
PRODUCTION
CUMULATIVE FORECAST TO 31 DEC 2001 2002 2003 2004
BLOCK MMSTB MMSTB 1, 2 & 161.746 66.O56 103.949 84.182 4 3 & 7 0.395 5A 0.000 0.000 3.220 12.775 6 0.000
97 TABLE 5 SUAKIN AND BASHAYER RESERVES
Profitability Suakin Bashayer Gas Condensate Red Sand (Gas) Other Sand (Gas) BSCF MMSTB BSCF BSCF 1P 114 1 25.8 41.7 2P 290 32 35.7 54.6 3P 276 19 49 70.8
98 Summary of discussion
1. Normally, the revenues from oil should be transferred to different areas such as social services. In the current agreements there were no revenues stated and the companies that have agreements with the Sudan have not given money to social services. Bonuses are in the agreement; these include social services bonuses. There are two types- the contractor pays the Government and the Government adds that money to that which is spent in the areas of activity. Different contractors have put their own money into promoting social services in the area. For example, Talisman has invested money into social services in blocks 1,3 and 4.
2. Currently, work in Halaib block is suspended and no one can explore or exploit any oil resources in the region. Some understand that Block B is heavily mined. Total, the oil company, have said they can not go in there because of the mines; they asked the government to remove the mines. The government said the French were better placed to do so themselves. Total has suspended their work there on a year by year basis. Work on Hallil block has also been suspended. This block is small and was previously drilled by Chevron. There is a production plan and long term testing – the testing was not previously done properly. Truck then boat then train cumbersomely carried oil. This was a costly way of transporting oil and we need to find more oil which would allow for the construction of a pipeline.
3. The criteria for the location of the refineries are social, economic and political. Refineries are built on the route of the pipeline, near high consumption areas where there is the ability to find labour and support services with political considerations in sight. The point of extraction is not necessarily a place of high consumption, neither is the water at the right temperature and the level of debris is wrong. Therefore, if a refinery were built in such a location it would use an air cooling system not water- cooling. This would prove more expensive to run when humidity is high. Double transportation is not economical. The normal oil share of companies for existing and new concessions is approximately 30%. The Government is willing to increase it, as in block 3 and 7. There are concessions in 3 and 7 with Gulf and Canadian Companies – the negotiating collapsed – then new companies reached agreement. There is a minimum of royalties and taxes. The contractor takes on the work on the basis of risks being taken.
4. Seismic studies precede drilling and provide an analytical determination of the structure of deposits. There are two processes: vibrating machines, then dynamite explosions. The health, safety and environmental regulations are favourable to oil extraction because pumping water into oil deposits, in order to push it to the surface, is not like mining because there is no debris created. The water is pumped into the lines to go for processing. Injection of water if it needs to be injected is accomplished by drilling a well in the strata from rivers or underground water and this would not affect the environment or health of the people nor the flora and fauna.
99 5. The Government of the Sudan provides security at the oil fields during exploration and exploitation The rate of oil production is 66 million standard barrels (MMSTB) in 2000, 76 MMSTB million in 2001, 79 million in 2002 for blocks 1, 2 and 4. These are not significant increases. The price of exported crude Sudanese oil is high when compared to OPEC oil. The Sudanese oil was first analysed for prices in Italy. In comparison to Brent, it realised a price of $1.48 less than Brent when it was $21 per barrel. It is now less than $2 below the price of Brent. The demand and supply forces on the world markets determine the price of Sudanese oil. The quality of the Sudanese oil is good. It is low in sulphur. This makes it very good in the coke industry. It is also low in salt and metallic deposits. Therefore it is perfect for making sulphides. Sudanese oil is popular in Japan, China, Singapore etc. A number of firms are looking at the possibility of exporting Sudanese oil to the American market owing to new US legislation restricting the sulphur content in crude oil. However, for the next 10 years there is little possibility of introducing petrochemical industries in the Sudan because of the investment, technology and size of the market which are required to make it economic, and because crude oil exports have such a high value.
6. The present agreements between GOS and contractors contain targets, as a percentage of the total of employees, for the employment of Sudanese Nationals. Currently, the contractors are required to employ at least 60% Sudanese workforce within 5 years. This is applicable to all jobs including positions in finance, administration and managerial levels. The Human Resources manager should be Sudanese. However, the above ratio would not apply to positions taken by sub- contractors for services.
7. If there were a peace settlement in the Sudan this would allow for the further development of the oil industry in the country. There would also be room for other contractors, especially if they are American. The US has good technology and finances. The American government did not allow Oxidental to come in. Madeline Albright made them pull out at the last minute. Given the small number of strategic investors in the country, there needs to be a change of the nationalities and number of investors in the Sudan because no government would want such a situation to continue.
100 5. The Impact of Oil and Gas Development on the Local and National Economy, Environment and Society in the Sudan b. Paper presented by Dr Peter Adowk Nyaba
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The discovery, in late seventies, and development of petroleum deposits in western and northern Upper Nile added another explosive dimension to the already tense relationship between the north and south Sudan. Nimeri’s decisions to relocate the refinery to Kosti received negative response in the Southern Region’s political circles. And the attempts to redraw the political and administrative boundaries of the Southern Region exacerbated the tension leading to the emergence of Anya-Nya II forces in Upper Nile and Bahr el Ghazal. Indeed, the mutiny in Bor in May 1983, which led to the formation of the SPLM/A, only provided a spark for the people of Southern Region ready to go to war against Nimeri’s callousness and double crossing. The SPLM/A and Anya-Nya II forces stopped the oil exploration and development, forcing Chevron to shut down its operations in 1984.
The National Islamic Front (NIF) usurped power in June 1989 in a military coup. In August 1991, a split occurred in the ranks of the SPLM/A providing the NIF with an opportunity to win the alliance and collaboration of the Nasir faction, then in control of the whole of Upper Nile region. This increased the NIF’s prospects for renewing the oil exploration in western Upper Nile. Concorp International belonging to a NIF cadre, Mr. Mohammed Abdullah Jar el Nebi, bought the Chevron concessions at a throw away price, and through it the NIF government was able to mobilise financial resources from Islamic financial institutions. The provision of military hardware for the war must have prompted the Chinese involvement.
The Political Charter (1996) and the Khartoum Peace Agreement (1997) provided a favourable political environment for increased oil exploration and development of the existing fields in Heglig and Unity. The Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC) comprising the China national Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Petronas Carigali (the national petroleum company of Malaysia), Sudapet and Canadian Talisman Energy was established. The construction of the Pipe Line and two small and medium scale refineries in El Obied and Jieli (north of Khartoum) began in earnest. Oil export started in August 1999.
101 As soon as the oil and gas development commenced, western Upper Nile witnessed an increase in the military activities and the number of gunship attacks on the Nuer and Dinka settlements in or near Heglig and Unity oil fields. These were part of the government strategy to displace the indigenous Dinka and Nuer inhabitants. This provoked counter attacks on the oil installation by the SPLA and forces opposed to the government and the result is a humanitarian disaster of immense proportions. Horrendous violations of human rights have been documented. These included burning of villages, aerial bombing and extensive use of helicopter gunships against the civil settlements, abduction, and massive displacements.
Evidence exists of the oil companies, notably Talisman and Lundin/IPC having availed their facilities to the government army in its war against the civilians and armed opposition in the oil field. These include the oil roads, airstrips, trucks and helicopters. This makes them privy to the extensive humanitarian disruption and human right abuses. The manner in which the oil and gas development is undertaken suggests that the oil companies have no concern about the short or long term negative environmental impact of their operations.
Sudan now produces 200,000 barrels per day of crude oil. The export of this has enabled to the NIF government to reap US 500 Million dollars annually in revenues. The NIF government is planning or intends to raise the production to 450,000 barrels per day, which will considerably raise the amount of revenues. In such a short time the revenues from oil and gas development have raised the NIF military expenditure, a fact that neatly correlates with the massive human rights abuses in the oil fields area, the increased divisions and internecine fighting among the Nuer factions; and the massive displacement of the civil population not to mention the immense humanitarian disruption.
The NIF leaders have repeatedly stated that they will use the proceeds from the oil sales to increase the tempo and lethality of the war against the SPLA and the ‘conspirators’ [northern political opposition]. The regime has now operational arms and ammunitions factories in Khartoum built with the Chinese technical assistance. The NIF manufactures its own versions of the AK 47 and all types of ammunitions, which are not clearly marked. This is to conceal the origin as most of these arms and ammunitions find their way to other war torn areas in the Great Lakes Region and the Horn. The regime is also manufacturing its own version of the Russian T55 tanks. It has recently ordered the purchase of sophisticated MiG-29s to the tune of 400 Millions US dollars. The purchase is being undertaken by the regime definitely eyeing the proceeds from the sale of oil. This high profile military purchase, which being the case, will deprive urgently needed funds
102 from all the other sectors of the economy. It loudly repudiates the regime’s claims that it uses the oil revenue for the benefit of all the Sudanese.
While, there are definitely no independent sources to verify the allegations, the government data and statistics don’t even demonstrate any evidence that the oil revenue is used for the development of the South. Information from the major towns in the south: Juba, Malakal, and Wau indicate that the regime’s own civil servants spend up to eight months without receiving their remunerations and wages. The level of social services offered in the areas that it takes pride in controlling is despicable. Malakal, for instance the largest town in the area, has no electricity supply, no pipe water, no tarmac roads and no medical doctor [only those medics on national service and the paramedics who run the hospital].
On the contrary it uses the revenues for military build up, which seem to give it an edge over the SPLA in some areas of the war theatre. This semblance of victory hardened the regime’s stance towards the IGAD peace process, making elusive a negotiated peaceful resolution of the conflict. The presence of oil companies like Talisman Energy/ Arakis, Lundini, etc., which are ready to go along with NIF policies give the regime a moral cover for international legitimacy. This has led to the intensification and escalation of the conflict with serious consequences for human rights and the environment. There is nothing to demonstrate the effect and impact of the oil and gas development in western and northeastern Upper Nile on the local economy. If anything the traditional economy of subsistence agriculture, rearing of livestock, fishing, hunting has been completely disrupted and shattered. The war has caused the regime to abdicate from its responsibilities towards the citizens in the oil fields as well as other parts of the south so that dependence of humanitarian assistance provided by the international community has become the prominent feature. The level of social services in the government-controlled areas of south Sudan is despicable.
The strength of the Sudanese Dinar against convertible currencies could be used a measure of strength or impact of the oil and gas revenues on the national economy. However, the indicators are that the economy is not performing well in spite of the windfall from the oil revenues. This could be attributed to war and military expenditure that swallows up almost all these revenues; the foreign debt payment and servicing, which amount to about US $ twenty billions; the endemic corruption in the state, federal institutions linked to the ruling National Congress Party.
103 While, the effects and impact of oil and gas development on the economy may be minimal, it effect and impact on the environment and society are great and destructive both in the short and long term. There has not been an environmental impact assessment of the oil and gas development project. The oil companies, working under security duress, pay little attention to the impact of their exploration operation, drilling and transportation of the crude oil on the environment both land and water. The long-term impact of the present environment deterioration may be irreversible, particularly now that there is no monitoring and the environmental awareness is so low that no one seems to care.
The humanitarian dimension of the oil and gas development in western and northeastern Upper Nile is the most dramatic and traumatic. The local civil population have become victims instead of beneficiaries of the oil and gas development in their own ancestral land. Indeed, the NIF government has utilised the oil and gas development and its revenues to kill, abduct, aerial bomb and burn their villages and displace them from their villages. There are more than five hundred displaced Nuers and Dinka from western Upper Nile now domicile in Bahr el Ghazal as a result of the ‘scorched earth policy’ executed by the NIF government.
Sudan is on the edge of an apocalypse due to a growing uncompromisibility of the positions of the parties to the conflict that paralysed all the peace initiatives and, which has led to the escalation and ferocity of the war. The NIF government, fighting for its own political survival in the face of political opposition in the north, with the connivance of the international oil companies intends to go on with the oil and gas development to enable it finance the war to achieve an edge over the SPLA and political opposition in the north. The people of south Sudan, on the other hand, will not give up their struggle until their inalienable right to self-determination has been granted.
The current rapprochement between the SPLA Nuer commanders led by Taban Deng Gai and Peter Gadet on the one hand and the SPDF commanders under the command of Dr. Riek Machar, which could result in the reunification and integration of forces, may be the saviour of the Sudan. It may force the NIF government to reconsider its peace options.
In conclusion, the negative effects and impact of the oil and gas development in western and northeastern Upper Nile are enormous on all accounts. And these will continue to be negative as long as the war in the country rages. The pressure against oil and gas development needs to be stepped up to force out of the area the oil companies, including
104 the Chinese and the Malaysian, who should be reminded to put morality, human dignity and rights over and above economic considerations.
1. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
Petroleum exploration and discovery in south Sudan came at a time of high political tension between south and north generated by the general crisis of the May regime and Nimeri’s erratic policies particularly in his terminal years. It will be recalled that the people of southern Sudan harboured a secessionist tendency even prior to the independence of the Sudan in 1956. This tendency surged with every frustration with the regime in Khartoum that paid little attention to southern Sudanese clamour for socio- economic and political inclusion. Nevertheless, the Arab dominated northern political elite pursued a policy that deliberately neglected the socio-economic development of the south. It frustrated through denial of necessary funding the development and exploitation of its vast forestry, high agricultural and animal resource potentials2. The objective was to keep the south poor and economically dependent on the north in order to prevent any moves to secession by the southern elite.
The discovery of petroleum in south Sudan heightened the northern political elite’s suspicion of their counterparts in south Sudan and their commitment to Sudan’s national and territorial unity. The ruling regime, therefore, made strenuous efforts to conceal the real geographic location of the oil fields. The mass media, the government information machinery and Chevron Oil Company in their briefings laid emphasis on a vague location some eight hundred miles south of Khartoum instead of identifying the exact location as western Upper Nile. This heightened the South’s apprehension and unrest.
The naming of the oil fields and Nimeri’s decision to transfer to Kosti (north) the oil refinery initially planned for Bentiu (south) on account that “Kosti was closer to the centre of major industrial and agricultural developmental schemes, whereas Bentiu was in the middle of nowhere (sic)”3, clearly mirrored the northern intentions to deprive the south of its oil. The first oil producing field was named ‘Heglig’ (instead of Wunthau - a Dinka name for heglig), the second field was named ‘Unity’ and other names were now introduced that carried little or no reference to the Southern Region or the ethnic groups particularly the Nuer and Dinka who populate the area. The oil was declared strategic national asset and President Nimeri took charge of exploration and development policies.
2 The Nzara agro-industrial complex-the only operational economic installation in the south, was run down through bad planning, the planned schemes e.g. the Mangalla Sugar, the Melut Sugar, the Tonj Kenaf, the Yei Tobacco and many other projects were either transferred to the north or were completely abandoned.
105 Given the regime’s hostile pronouncements at the time, it was believed that the government had secret plans already afoot either to buy off their land the local Nuer and Dinka population or to forcefully evict them by military means. This was to be the case as experience today can tell. The idea was to pre-empt any future claims to royalties or in the event that there was rebellion in the Southern Region their presence in the oil fields would not constitute a security risk.
In 1980, the government introduced a Bill in the National People’s Assembly (Parliament) in Khartoum to alter the provisional boundaries between the Southern Region and Kordofan and White Nile in the north. The aim was to annex the oil rich areas (Bentiu) and fertile agricultural lands (Renk and parts of Kodok) in Upper Nile to Kordofan and White Nile provinces respectively. There were efforts to create a microcosm of the Sudan in the form of ‘Unity State’ to be curbed off from western Upper Nile [oil producing area], Southern Kordofan and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. This was to bring together in a government instigated and accelerated interaction between the Baggara Arabs [Kordofan], Dinka [Bahr el Ghazal, Kordofan and Upper Nile] and Nuer [Upper Nile] to expedite homogenisation [hybridisation of the racial groups] and hence Sudan’s national unity4.
In Nimeri’s political imagination the project would ward off any attempts to secession by the southern political elite. ‘National Unity’ [‘el wada el watania’] became the Sudan Socialist Union’s ideological catchword with which the regime’s politicians, northerners and southerners alike, hypnotised the people of Southern Region. It will be recalled that, and in order to coerce and curb any recalcitrance in the ranks, only those southern politicians with unity tendency and who preached this ideology were favoured in political appointments. Those who showed defiance and southern nationalism were completely ostracised and imprisoned.
The resentment against Nimeri grew in the south. Even the Southern Regional instruments of government started to tenaciously fight back Nimeri’s moves for altering the borders and transferring the oil refinery to Kosti. For instance, in response to the statement of Dr. Sherif el Tuhami, ‘that Bentiu lies in the middle of nowhere’, Mr. Abel Alier retorted that ‘such a development philosophy would condemn the underdeveloped
3 Dr. Sheriff el Tuhami, then Nimeri’s Minister of Energy and Mining. 4 A Dinka intellectual and writer Mr. Francis Mading Deng ascribes [in most of his writings, particularly “The Dynamics of Identification”] to this project of a marriage of Dinka and the Arabs as a solution to the conflict.
106 areas to perpetual underdevelopment’5 and exploitation (my addition). This was a serious shift in Abel’s initial stance towards the May regime. No wonder that this elicited a series of political confrontations that culminated in Nimeri’s interference in the political and democratic process in the Southern Region.
He confronted the southern political elite head-on, repeatedly dissolved the Regional People’s Assembly (RPA) and the High Executive Council (HEC), and imprisoned the opposition elements in an attempt to prevent the coalescence of any meaningful resistance. Not only that, but in order to further weaken the Southern Region, Nimeri instigated, exacerbated and exploited the internal political contradictions and ethnic cleavages in the South by injecting into the political discourse the idea of re-division of the Southern Region under the guise of administrative decentralisation, which already was under implementation in the north. This eventually led to the establishment of the three regions of Bahr el Ghazal, Equatoria and Upper Nile and final abrogation of the Addis Ababa Agreement6.
By the end of 1979, the political marriage that followed the Addis Ababa Agreement, between Nimeri and the southern political elite started to crack and the cleavages widened and deepened by these political developments. Large sections of the south had lost confidence in Nimeri and the north in general. The economic and deep political crisis in the centre was reflected in stagnation and the general social and political unrest in the south. Mutinies and indiscipline became frequent in the ranks of the Anya-Nya absorbed into the Sudanese Armed Forces. These mutinies started in Akobo (1975), Wau (1976), Juba (1977) and finally in Bor, Pibor, Ayod, Rumbek, Awiel (1983).
Although most of these mutinies centred on or were triggered by administrative grievances in the barracks, they had far-reaching political implications. Many Anya-Nya officers and men were now not satisfied with the manner the government was implementing the provisions of the Addis Ababa Agreement. They, therefore, established units of Anya-Nya II in eastern7, western Upper Nile and northern Bahr el Ghazal. By 1980/81, elements of the Anya-Nya II were already engaging the Sudanese Army in combat in direct opposition to Nimeri’s policies. All indications were that South Sudan was returning to war and the spark was only to be provided by the mutiny in Bor on May
5 Peter Nyot Kok. “The Ties that will not bind: Conflict and racial Cleavage in the Sudan”. In P. Anyang’ Nyongo (editor) Arms and Daggers in the Heart of Africa: Studies on Internal Conflicts. African Academy of Sciences (AAS) 1993, pp. 33-66 6 The Presidential Decree No. 1 of June 1st, 1983. 7 Bilpam, which later became the SPLM/A General H/Qs, was established in western Ethiopia by the remnants of the Akobo rebellion 1975.
107 16th 1983, feeding into the formation of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLM/SPLA) and the beginning of the present war.
It must be mentioned that although the formation of the SPLM/SPLA had wider political and ideological overtones, the response to its call to arms was in response to local grievances in the south. This is underpinned by the lack of consensus on the political and ideological direction of the SPLM/SPLA, which were to lead to serious internal convulsions and splits the NIF regime exploited8. The formation of the Anya-Nya II in western Upper Nile was to prevent the oil being pumped to the north particularly in the wake of Nimeri’s decision to relocate the refinery to Kosti. The attack on Rub Kona – Chevron’s field H/Qs - on February 4th, 19849 was carried out by the local units of Anya- Nya II and not by SPLA, which lends credence to the fact that decision on oil and gas development was a factor in the present conflict. The intensification of the war and its escalation into all parts of south Sudan brought a complete halt to all petroleum exploration and development. Nimeri was subsequently overthrown in April 1985 and a complete withdrawal of Chevron and all the oil companies from the Sudan.
In June 1989, the National Islamic Front (NIF) usurped the state power in a military coup against a background of escalating war in south Sudan, Nuba Mountain and Southern Blue Nile. The SPLA sustained a military advantage over the Sudanese Army, whose garrisons now fell to the SPLA one after another. Some even fell to the SPLA without shooting a bullet. The Army morale was at it’s lowest and garrisons like Torit, Nimuli and Kajo-Keji withdrew into Uganda. Sadig el Mahdi, the elected Prime Minister, unable to make decision on peace and war, led a politically bankrupt and weak coalition government of ‘national unity’, which involved all the political forces except the NIF, but completely incapacitated by corruption and political bickering among the coalition members.
The NIF assumed power on an Arab and Islamic agenda of ‘el twaja el hadhariya’ [civilisation project]. It therefore embarked on far reaching social, economic, cultural and religious transformation of the country in the image of its civilisation project. On the political front it vowed to defeat the SPLA and return to its sovereignty all the garrisons captured by the SPLA and to protect the territorial unity and integrity of the Sudan. On the economic front the regime raised the slogan of self-reliance, “ We eat what we plant
8 Nyaba, P. A. “The Politics of Liberation in South Sudan: An Insider’s View.” 2nd edition, Fountain Publishers, Kampala, 2000, pp 51 9 It was this attack in which a number of foreign oil workers were killed that prompted the Chevron Oil Company to close down its operations in western Upper Nile.
108 and wear what we weave” and embarked on revitalising the Gezira and agricultural schemes in northern province. In all its ambitious plans, the NIF must have been eyeing the existence of huge petroleum deposits in western Upper Nile with the view of developing them for the realisation of their political strategy.
In August 1991 the SPLM/A split following the failed coup against the leadership of Dr. John Garang de Mabior. The NIF regime immediately exploited the split winning the alliance of and forging some working relations with the Nasir faction leaders. It was this strategic collaboration with the Nasir faction that enabled the NIF strategists to build the consortium that finally put together the plan for developing and exploiting the petroleum deposits in western and northern Upper Nile. It mobilised financial resources from Islamic and Arab financial houses that eventually enabled a hitherto unknown Sudanese company10 to buy off the Chevron concessions in western Upper Nile.
Riek Machar’s South Sudan Independence Movement/Army (SSIM/A) controlled the oil fields and with its tacit collaboration, especially after the signing of the Political Charter (1996) and the Khartoum Agreement (1997), the NIF immediately embarked on a process that expedited the building of the Pipe Line and the pumping the oil to the Red Sea Port of Beshair [map 1]. Indeed the first consignment of Sudanese oil was flagged off by President Omer Hassan el Beshir and Dr. Abdullah Hassan el Turabi, then the Speaker of the National Assembly, on August 31st 1999 to the chagrin of many south Sudanese, including Riek Machar who was sitting as Assistant President of the Republic in Khartoum. It is worth mentioning that in the ceremony Dr. Turabi, then still the political mentor, declared that ‘the proceeds will be used to buy armaments for prosecuting the war against the SPLA and the conspirators [northern opposition]’11.
Assured of oil revenues, the NIF embarked on revitalisation of the military machine as a means of protecting further oil exploration and development of the oil fields. It is no wonder that the military budget doubled in a mater of two years. It increased from US $ 162 million (1998) to US $ 327 million (2000) and now (2001) it stand at US $ 596 million12. This amount, assuming that all other variables remain the same, will continue to rise with the escalation of the war and the increase in the daily production to half a million barrels per day as has been projected.
10 Mohammed Abdullah Jar el Nebbi’s company called Concorp International amassed billions of dollar from Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and from Islamic organisations like the ‘Dawa el Islamiya’ for which he worked in Kampala, Uganda. 11 Jezera Satellite Channel monitored by the Author in Nairobi. 12 IMF source quoted in Georgette Gagnon and John Ryle “Report of an Investigation into the Oil and gas development, Conflict and Displacement in Western Upper Nile, Sudan.” October 2001
109
The intervening period [1997 – 2000], which witnessed an upsurge in the development o the oil fields was, therefore, characterised by increased Sudanese Army activities in western Upper Nile resulting in their occupation of Mankein, Mayom, Ler and Adok, hitherto controlled clearing enough territory for oil exploration; the deepening of the rift and heavy internecine fighting between Riek Machar and Paulino Matip culminating in murder in cold blood by Matip’s men of Riek Machar’s three state ministers in Bentiu13. The humanitarian disruption in western Upper Nile resulting from these military operations led to unprecedented massive displacement of the Nuer civilian population into Twic, Tonj, Yirol and Rumbek counties of Bahr el Ghazal14.
As a result of and in anger to these atrocities against his people, Riek Machar resigned his position with the NIF government in December 1999, stormed out of the presidential mansion in Khartoum and return to command his forces in the bush.
Box 1. In February 1992, GoS began planning for oil exploitation, and military offensives caused the death of 35 people (mostly civilians), the theft of about 500 cows, some tukuls burnt and people forced out. In November 1992 and until April 1993, the GoS and Arab Murahileen, allied to it conducted a 5-month offensive with looting, burning, abduction. In all, 57 hamlets were burned. A new offensive began in December 1993, when 26 people were killed in hamlets near to Heglig [Panlok, Kwok, Nhorial, Panagwit]; it was after this that the area around Heglig was more or less deserted except for GoS forces. The Dinka village of Athonj was renamed El Toor, and the GoS deployed troops in Maper, renaming it Munga. In October 1996, the GoS and its allies launched a further offensive, displacing many thousand of people, some into the ‘peace camps’ in Pariang and Athonj, where coping mechanisms were limited because cattle were stolen and seeds lost. 15
The resignation of Riek Machar in 1999, followed a year later by that of Taban Deng Gai led to the collapse of the Khartoum Peace Agreement and created a condition favourable for a rapprochement with the SPLM/A and the reunification of the southern front. The internecine fighting among the Nuer factions has already ceased bringing respite to the
13 This came against a background of Riek refusal to appoint as governor of Unity State. Paulino Matip, offered a bogus title of Major General by the NIF regime. 14 The Wunlit Nuer-Dinka Peace Covenant (1999) made it possible, for the first time since the split within the SPLM/A in 1991, for the Nuers to move to Dinka areas. 15 ‘Human Security in Sudan: The Report of a Canadian Assessment Mission’ – John Harker – for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ottawa, January 2000, pp 10
110 civil population, although the high altitude Antonov bombardments and helicopter gunships are still a menace.
2. THE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT – MORE POLITICS THAN ECONOMICS: AN INTRODUCTION
‘Thick-skin and Thin-skin detachment faults in continental Sudanese rift basins’. 16
What has been said of the conflict potential of natural resources finds expression in the development of the oil and gas deposits in the Sudan. It is both a cause and catalyst of the long running war, the humanitarian disruption, environmental deterioration and the escalation of the conflict and internecine fighting that have engulfed the Nuer sections and clans of western Upper Nile, and the heightening of conflict between the nomadic Arab tribes of southern Dar Fur and Kordofan on the one hand and the Dinka and Nuer on the other hand.
The subtitle above is a ‘geology metaphor’ of the cynicism that surrounds the oil and gas development in the Sudan. The political/social forces that are generating the humanitarian disaster in western Upper Nile today correspond and seem to be reworking the geological processes that led to the formation twenty five million years ago [from its previous lacustrine micro-organic life] of the huge petroleum deposits.
While the ‘detachment faults’ that trap the petroleum are buried thousands of feet below, their surface manifestation is a series of political fault-lines between the Arab dominated northern political elite supported by the multinational oil companies [thick-skin] and the political elite [thin-skin] in south Sudan. The clash between the two borders on ‘ethnic and religious cleansing’ of the Dinka and the Nuer people in western Upper Nile and northern Bahr el Ghazal. These people now carry the brunt of this brutal war.
2.1. The oil fields, refineries and pipeline
The location (map 1) shows the main oil producing fields. In western Upper Nile, [Bentiu- Unity (Block 1), Heglig (Block 2) and Block 5A] are to be found. In northern Upper Nile [Adar-Yale (Block 3)] and Abu Gabra (Block 6) are located. There are four refineries which process the Sudanese oil for domestic and external markets. Among them there are small to medium scale oil refineries: Port Sudan with a capacity of 21, 700
16 Adopted from an article written by D. Craig Mann.
111 barrels per day, El Obied with a capacity of 10,000 barrels per day, el Gieli, which is 35 KM north of Khartoum with a capacity of 50,000 barrels per day and Abu Gabra with a capacity of 10,000 barrels per day. However, the bulk of the crude oil is pipelined and exported through the terminal at Bashier near Port Sudan.
2.2. The international companies involved in oil and gas development
The major oil companies involved in the development and exploitation either singularly or in a consortium including the construction and ownership of the pipe line17 and the refineries are: Agip (Italy), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC – China); Elf- Aquitaine (France), Gulf Petroleum Corporation (GPC), Lundin Oil/IPC (Sweden), Mobil, National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC-Iran), OMV-AG (Austria), Petronas (Malaysia) Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Talisman Energy (Canada) and TotalFina (France & Belgium). The NIF regime uses the large number of oil companies to offset the negative impact of the high risk of the operation and the political fallouts resulting from its excessive violations of human rights, humanitarian disruption and displacement of the indigenous people. This has given the regime more space for political engineering and diplomatic leverage.
2.3. The internal and external dimensions of the oil and gas development.
The development of the Sudanese oil and its exportation has given the NIF government enough international manoeuvrability. It won an observer status with the OPEC. The regime now reaps revenues from the sale of oil and, although a large portion of these revenues goes into debts repayment, nevertheless, this has transformed the character of the present conflict into a resource war. The economy is now a war economy dominated more by political and military expediency than economic and market considerations. It has become a zero sum conflict and whomever controls and exploits this strategic resource may determine the final out come of the war, whether diplomatically or militarily.
The Dinka and Nuers and indeed south Sudanese can win only by submission, abandonment of their rights to the oil and sacrificing their dignity as a free people. And the NIF regime and by extension the Arab dominated northern political elite can relinquish their ambitions only under threat of military defeat by the SPLA or the
17 The Pipe Line owned by a joint operating company The Greater Nile Oil Project (GNOP) was established by an agreement (1996) according to the following proportion: CNPC 40%, Petronas 30%, Arakis 25% and Sudan National Petroleum Company 5%.
112 intervention of a super power like the USA in the context of the current war against terrorism to which the regime has been privy for a long time.
The NIF regime prosecutes the war in total disregard of the norms of international humanitarian law, international human rights law and international law of war. The Harker Mission Report (2000) and other subsequent reports18 and news footages concur that oil and gas development exacerbated the war south Sudan, Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile and more particularly with intensity in western and northern Upper Nile and northern Bahr el Ghazal. And this correlates with the extensive human rights abuses, abduction, forced displacement of the Dinka and the Nuer from their ancestral lands, etc., and settlement of the Baggara Arab tribes people in their place [plates 2: a, b, c & d].
The oil revenues received by the NIF government translate into increased military expenditure, which correlates also with endemic splinterism among the Nuer military commanders in western Upper Nile which has unprecedented humanitarian and security consequences for the civil population in the oil fields area. The regime supports Major General Paulino Matip Nhial against both the SPLA and the SPDF of Riek Machar, and has used him largely to displace the Nuer civil population in Jagei, Lek and Dok areas (see map 2 & 3) in order to create space for the oil companies, particularly the Lundin/IPC in Block 5A, to conduct their exploration activities. In 1998, the forces of Paulino Matip commanded by Cdr. Peter Gadet razed Ler to the ground and with his assistance helped the GoS to establish a garrison therein, making it easy for Lundin/IPC to start their geophysical exploration and drilling operations.
The NIF regime now dazzles the oil and tries to entice the neighbouring countries to buy cheap Sudanese oil as a means to improve its image and break itself out of diplomatic isolation19. Because of the oil politics, it has considerably improved its relationship with both Ethiopia and Eritrea, although the two nations are at each other’s throat with perhaps NIF’s instigation and duplicity. The tension between the regime and Uganda has thawed and, the two countries have now exchanged diplomatic representation after almost seven years of diplomatic cold. Some European governments, particularly members of the IGAD Partners Forum, with stakes in the oil companies have now changed their position vis a vis the NIF regime and are favouring constructive engagement with the regime. This
18 Peter Verney “Raising the Stakes: Oil and Conflict in Sudan.” A Sudan Update Report. December 1999; Christian Aid “The Scorched Earth: Oil and War in Sudan.” March 2001. Human Rights Watch and other reports. 19 Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Africa and Uganda were the targets of this NIF government ‘oil diplomacy’ offensive
113 has hardened the regime's stance towards the IGAD Peace Process, rendering elusive the attempts at a negotiated peaceful resolution of the conflict.
However, there is a growing international campaign against the development and exploitation of the oil deposits while the war is raging. The human rights violations and the displacement of the civil population has been attributed to the oil and gas development and exploitation. Pax Christi (Netherlands), Sudanese Bishops Conference and other groups in Europe, Canada and USA have launched campaigns against the Talisman and other international oil companies exploiting the petroleum deposits in Bentiu and Adar oil fields. In fact a court case has been opened against Talisman in The Hag, Netherlands, for abetting in humanitarian disruption and human rights violations and abuses in western Upper Nile. The US Administration (Clinton) introduced a bill that would prevent Talisman and the oil companies involved in the Sudan from raising money on the US financial markets. These measures were in recognition of the negative impact on the humanitarian situation in the oil fields.
2.4. This paper
This paper was prepared for presentation at the ARI/RFI’s third consultation on the Sudan Peace programme. It hopes to address the following matters associated with oil discovery, exploration, exploitation and exportation. The humanitarian concerns related to oil and gas sector development around the oil fields; Whether or not the local people leaving near the wells have gained in terms of employment opportunities, incomes, quality of housing, roads, etc.; Whether or not there is discernible negative impact on the environment as a consequence of oil production; Whether or not there are local jobs created in drilling, pipe line construction, processing, distribution and export; Whether or not the oil and gas production has affected national and local distribution of income in the Sudan; and Has the oil surpluses been used in national and local development? The situation surrounding the development of the oil fields in south Sudan is very complex. Coming in the context of the long-running and cruel war, whose parameters are defined by racial and religious factors, the development of the petroleum deposits is likely to distort its economic potentialities for the country. It is likely also to widen the gap between the parties to the conflict because only one side benefits from this development. This will make it almost impossible for peace making and building.
114
Indeed, given the fact that it costs the NIF government almost US dollars three million per day to prosecute the war, oil is the only strategic product that can source this war and it is unlikely its revenues could be used to develop the local people whom the NIF government chased away from their ancestral land, and has embarked on a programme of resettling the Arab tribesmen – the Baggara in order to give the oil companies a free and secured environment for their operations. The development of the petroleum deposits in south Sudan, therefore, has transformed the conflict into a resource war similar to the diamond wars in Angola and Sierra Leone, which renders peaceful resolution more complicated.
3. EFFECTS AND IMPACT OF OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT
The oil and gas development and the operations of the oil companies in western and northeastern Upper Nile is shrouded in impenetrable secrecy. Neither the NIF government nor the international oil companies involved are transparent about their operations. No independent reporters and researchers are allowed into the oil fields and the information filtering out is carefully tailored in order to keep the world ignorant of the immense human suffering, forced displacement of the indigenous Dinka and Nuer people from their ancestral land, the deliberate policy of resettling nomadic Arab tribes in the oil fields area, and the immense environmental degradation resulting from oil exploration and exploitation and military/combat activities.
Elsewhere in the world, the discovery, development and exploitation of petroleum resources would be a blessing to the country. The revenues and royalties accruing would definitely be pumped into socio-economic transformation and development. In the Sudan, and on the contrary, it is proving a curse not only for the Dinka and Nuer people in whose ancestral lands it has been discovered, but also for the black people of south Sudan, Nuba mountains and the Funj. Mr. Abel Alier, the former President of the High Executive Council of the Southern Region and vice president of the Republic, is said to have once quipped “do you have an army to fight”, when asked about the future of oil development in view of Nimeri’s political machinations.20 The fate of the Nuer and Dinka in the oil fields resembles that of the Ogoni people in Nigeria because their government (NIF) and the international oil companies have conspired to disregard their human rights.
20 Mr. Benjamin Warille, former editor of The Nile Mirror, in a personal communication in 1984.
115 The oil and gas development in western and eastern Upper Nile has devastating effects on the lives of the indigenous people, their way of life and their environment. We summarise these as follows:
3.1. Humanitarian disaster resulting from the war
If they had an opportunity to make a preference between oil and gas development [the manner it is being undertaken] and their homeland, the choice of the Ruweng Dinka and the western Nuers will be more than obvious. Living for decades on the fringes of the Sudanese state, the discovery of oil in their ancestral land pushed the Nuers and Dinka to the status of non-citizen and brought them immense suffering of unprecedented proportion. Their villages have been bombed from the air and razed to the ground, their livestock stolen, their women and children abducted into slavery and many people killed in what repeatedly has been described by Human Rights observers and other humanitarian agencies as ‘scorched earth policy’.
Box 2 ‘As one flies along the new oil road, the only sign of life are the lorries travelling at high speed back and forth to the oilfield. Small military garrisons are clearly visible every five kilometre. The bulk of the population that once lived in villages along the road and within walking distance of OLS airstrip are now nearly beyond reach.’21[Plate 3c]
The NIF policy, which borders on ‘ethnic and religious cleansing’ leaves the survivors with only one choice and that is to flee their homes for their lives. Hundreds of thousands now live in internally displaced peoples (IDPs) camps in either Bahr el Ghazal [Twic, Tonj, Rumbek and Yirol counties]22 or in northern Sudan. This has been corroborated with the evidence provided in the reports of Mr. Leonardo Franco, the former UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights situation in the Sudan.
The humanitarian disruption resulting from development of oil fields and the NIF government policy of keeping the Nuers and Dinka people out of the area can’t be over emphasised. Plate [3a] illustrates the displacement of the indigenous people from Heglig, Unity and Block 5A to give way to oil fields development. The NIF government considers as security risks, and hence unwanted people, the Nuers and Dinka civil
21 An Aid Worker quoted in the Christian Aid report 2001. 22 An assessment of needs conducted by OLS and New Sudan Council of Churches between January 26th and February 12th 2001 in Tonj, Rumbek and Yirol put the number of displaced at 46,488. This number has long increased due to heightened tension between the forces of Peter Par and Peter Gadet, which resulted in the burning of Nyal Relief Centre in March 2001.
116 population. This forced displacement from their homes has become a policy priority for the government to serve military strategy of denying SPLA access to their area. The humanitarian disruption and the concomitant lost of the people’s traditional livelihood [cattle, fishing and subsistence agriculture] result from the following: -