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Auto & Autoparts Malaysia Sector Update 23 October 2019 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Auto & Autoparts Neutral (Maintained) Notable Winners: Proton, Perodua, And Volvo Stocks Covered 7 Ratings (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 4 / 3 / 0 Last 12m Earnings Neutral Revision Trend: Stay NEUTRAL. Malaysian Automotive Association’s (MAA) September Top Pick Target data shows that TIV declined 12.7% MoM as consumers held back purchases DRB-HICOM (DRB MK) – BUY MYR3.3price0 in anticipation of Budget 2020 announcements. We expect TIV to recover in October. Proton, Perodua and Volvo recorded YTD growth in sales volume, bucking the broad market decline. Uncertainty over macroeconomic Analysts conditions will likely benefit brands with lower-priced cars, eg Proton and Perodua. Our Top Pick: DRB-HICOM. Muhammad Afif Bin Zulkaplly Sales held back by Budget 2020 uncertainty. According to data from the +603 9280 8883 [email protected] MAA, TIV was at 44,666 units (+43% YoY, -12.7% MoM) in September. The monthly drop was mainly due to consumers holding back purchases, and adopting a wait-and-see approach prior to Budget 2020. YTD (9M19) auto sales of 442,991 units (-2.6% YoY) are on track to meet our 2019 forecast of 600,000 units (MAA: 600,000 units), with the anticipation of year-end promotions being held to spur sales. Proton and Perodua continued to buck market trends. Proton sales YTD-2019 market share by marque continued to be fuelled by the delivery of the recently-launched facelifted YTD 2019 Proton Saga. Proton received 20,000 bookings and has delivered Others Proton 12.5% 15.8% approximately 8,000 units since the model was launched in August. 3,994 Mazda units were delivered in September, overtaking the Perodua Bezza as the best- 2.0% selling A-segment sedan. Perodua targets to sell 6,000 Axia FL units a month, which we believe is achievable. Historically, the model contributed c.25-27% Honda of Perodua’s total sales volume. YTD, both Proton and Perodua have bucked 14.7% the broad market trend of declining sales volumes (Figure 2). Nissan Broad market recorded higher YoY but lower MoM sales in September. 3.7% Most non-national brands recorded higher YoY sales due to the low base Perodua effect of last year (ie post-tax-free window). Sales dropped MoM, due to Toyota 40.4% consumers adopting a wait-and-see approach prior to the Budget 2020 10.9% announcement. As such, sales should recover somewhat in October. Volvo Source: Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), RHB recorded sales volume growth of 21% YoY to 1,726 units YTD, while most other marques have booked declines in sales volumes (Figure 2). Also, 2018 market share by marque Mazda’s sales volume plunged to 450 units (-62.6% YoY, -55.1% MoM) due to delays in the approval of the new facelifted Mazda CX-5’s pricing by the 2018 Others Proton Finance Ministry. However, Bermaz Auto’s management clarified that, since 15.4% 10.8% then, it has received the needed approvals – and we can expect Mazda car sales to recover this month. Mazda 2.7% Key risks. The outlook of the domestic economy is a key concern, while the recent weak MYR/USD rate remains a negative for sector margins. We do Honda not expect any material policy changes from the upcoming revision of the 17.1% National Automotive Policy 2019. There is still no indication on when the Perodua 38.0% revised policy will be announced. We make no change to our sector call. Given the saturated market, sector Nissan 4.9% earnings growth is likely to stay limited. Increasing uncertainties over Toyota 11.1% macroeconomic conditions could lead to consumers holding back big-ticket Source: MAA, RHB item purchases – which should benefit lower-priced brands like Proton and Perodua, as a result of down-trading. Our Top Pick: DRB-HICOM. TP % Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%) Company Rating (MYR) (Downside) FY19F FY19F FY19F Bermaz Auto^ Buy 2.75 25.6 10.9 4.2 6.8 DRB-HICOM^ Buy 3.30 34.1 28.8 0.7 0.4 MBM Resources Buy 4.85 18.9 7.9 0.9 1.9 Tan Chong Motor Buy 1.85 36.0 8.0 0.3 1.5 APM Automotive Neutral 2.60 18.7 10.9 0.3 6.8 UMW Neutral 5.30 17.8 12.5 1.1 2.2 Sime Darby^ Neutral 2.20 (5.2) 17.4 1.1 4.3 Source: Company data, RHB ; Note: ^FY19-20 valuations refer to those of FY20 -21 See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Auto & Autoparts Malaysia Sector Update 23 October 2019 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Figure 1: Auto stocks' valuations FYE Price Target Mkt cap P/E (x) EPS Growth (%) P/BV(x) P/CF(x) ROE (%) DY (%) Rec (MYR/s) (MYR/s) (MYRm) FY19F FY20F FY19F FY20F FY19F FY19F FY19F FY19F DRB-HICOM^ Dec 2.46 3.30 4,756 28.8 19.0 27.2 51.4 0.7 3.3 2.4 0.4 Buy Bermaz Auto^ Apr 2.19 2.75 2,544 10.9 9.7 (12.5) 12.1 4.2 22.0 39.7 6.8 Buy MBM Resources Dec 4.08 4.85 1,595 7.9 7.6 13.3 5.0 0.9 16.7 12.1 1.9 Buy Tan Chong Dec 1.36 1.85 888 8.0 7.7 1.4 3.9 0.3 (2.5) 3.8 1.5 Buy Sime Darby^ Jun 2.32 2.20 15,778 17.4 16.6 (4.4) 4.8 1.1 7.9 6.1 4.3 Neutral UMW Dec 4.50 5.30 5,257 12.5 11.0 10.0 13.9 1.1 9.4 10.8 2.2 Neutral APM Automotive Dec 2.19 2.60 428 10.9 10.4 2.3 4.3 0.3 4.0 3.1 6.8 Neutral Sector Avg 14.8 13.8 8.6 6.9 Note: ^FY19-20 valuations refer to those of FY20-21 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Figure 2: Monthly and YTD comparison of auto sales Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 MoM YoY YTD YTD YoY (units) (%) (%) 2018 2019 (%) Proton 4,524 9,127 8,685 -4.8 92.0 49,233 69,920 42.0 Perodua 9,471 20,070 16,978 -15.4 79.3 168,203 178,754 6.3 Toyota/Lexus 3,070 5,516 5,387 -2.3 75.5 53,504 48,151 -10.0 Nissan/Renault 2,036 1,819 1,744 -4.1 -14.3 21,515 16,572 -23.0 Honda 4,964 7,577 5,752 -24.1 15.9 79,915 65,123 -18.5 Mazda 1,202 1,003 450 -55.1 -62.6 11,046 8,946 -19.0 Hyundai/Inokom 56 262 145 -44.7 158.9 2,503 1,756 -29.8 BMW 1,010 660 800 21.2 -20.8 8,981 7,360 -18.0 Mercedes-Benz 531 724 666 -8.0 25.4 10,475 7,764 -25.9 Ford 536 455 473 4.0 -11.8 5,338 4,305 -19.4 Mitsubishi 513 682 529 -22.4 3.1 7,309 6,017 -17.7 Volkswagen 303 568 489 -13.9 61.4 5,668 4,068 -28.2 Volvo 93 227 193 -15.0 107.5 1,426 1,726 21.0 Isuzu 851 660 663 0.5 -22.1 8,379 6,187 -26.2 Others 2,080 1,798 1,712 -4.8 -17.7 21,411 16,342 -23.7 TIV 31,240 51,148 44,666 -12.7 43.0 454,906 442,991 -2.6 Passenger 27,018 46,802 40,267 -14.0 49.0 404,976 404,120 -0.2 Commercial 4,222 4,346 4,399 1.2 4.2 49,930 38,871 -22.1 Source: MAA, RHB Figure 3: Quarterly comparison of auto sales (units) 3Q18 2Q19 3Q19 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Proton 22,127 25,237 26,402 4.6 19.3 Perodua 51,105 61,123 56,972 -6.8 11.5 Toyota/Lexus 21,370 17,658 16,628 -5.8 -22.2 Nissan/Renault 9,173 5,519 5,600 1.5 -39.0 Honda 28,561 22,070 20,863 -5.5 -27.0 Mazda 4,350 3,180 2,455 -22.8 -43.6 Others 28,586 18,483 17,747 -4.0 -37.9 TIV 165,272 153,270 146,667 -4.3 -11.3 Passenger 144,017 139,761 133,258 -4.7 -7.5 Commercial 21,255 13,509 13,409 -0.7 -36.9 Source: MAA See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) Auto & Autoparts Malaysia Sector Update 23 October 2019 Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Autoparts Figure 4: Sales performance of major marques Figure 5: TIV growth Units ('000) Units ('000) % 80 50.0 20 70 60 30.0 15 50 10.0 40 10 30 \ -10.0 20 -30.0 5 10 0 -50.0 0 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Proton Perodua Toyota Nissan Honda Mazda Others Jul-08 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Sep-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 TIV YoY growth Source: MAA, RHB Source: MAA, RHB Figure 6: National vs non-national marques’ market share Units ('000) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jul-10 Jul-15 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-13 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 National Non-national Source: MAA, RHB Figure 7: National vs non-national marques’ market share Figure 8: New model launches 1.
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