Assessing Asymmetry in International Politics: Us-South Africa Relations: 1994-2008
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ASSESSING ASYMMETRY IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS: US-SOUTH AFRICA RELATIONS: 1994-2008 by SCOTT THOMAS FIRSING submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF LITERATURE AND PHILOSOPHY in the subject INTERNATIONAL POLITICS at the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA SUPERVISOR: DR T HOEANE CO-SUPERVISOR: MS J K VAN WYK NOVEMBER 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures and Tables…………………………………………………………………………..9 List of Acronyms………………………………………………………………………………......10 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION TO THIS THESIS 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..13 2. Literature review……………………………………………………………………………......14 3. Purpose and objectives……………………………………………………………………….....16 4. Approaches and methodology…………………………………………………………………..16 5. Scope and limitations of the thesis……………………………………………………………...18 6. Contribution of study…………………………………………………………………………....20 7. Research questions and structure of study….……………………………………………...........21 CHAPTER TWO: OVERVIEW OF ASYMMETRY THEORY 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………...26 2. Asymmetry theory.........................................................................................................................26 3. Strong versus the weak…………………………………………………………………………..29 4. Inattention and overattention…………………………………………………………………….31 5. Deference, autonomy and misperception……………………………………………………......33 6. Managing the asymmetric relationship…………………………………………………………37 6.1 Routinization…………………………………………………………………………………...37 6.2 Diplomatic ritual……………………………………………………………………………….38 6.3 Neutralization………………………………………………………………………………......39 6.4 Societies and history……………………………………………………………………………39 6.5 Friendship to hostility…………………………………………………………………………..40 7. Perceived limitations of asymmetry theory………………………………………………………41 8. Summary……………………………………………..…………………………………………..43 CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW OF US AND SOUTH AFRICAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THEIR DETERMINANTS 1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................46 2. Overview of US foreign policy.....................................................................................................46 3. William J. Clinton: 1994-2001.....................................................................................................50 4. George W. Bush: 2001-2008........................................................................................................55 5. Overview of South African foreign policy...................................................................................58 6. Nelson Mandela: 1994-1999.........................................................................................................65 7. Thabo Mbeki: 1999-2008..............................................................................................................71 8. Summary.......................................................................................................................................77 CHAPTER FOUR: MONEY AND POWER: ECONOMIC AND DEFENSE PERSPECTIVES 1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………….......81 2. Economic relations………………………………………………………………………………82 1 2.1 Bilateral trade……………………………………………………………………………….....82 2.2 Multilateral trade………………………………………………………………………………94 2.3 US perspective…………………………………………………………………………………96 2.4 SA perspective…………………………………………………………………………………97 3. Defense relations……………………………………………………………………………….101 3.1 US perspective……………………………………………………………………………......114 3.2 SA perspective……………………………………………………………………………......117 4. Summary……………………………………………………………………………………….119 CHAPTER FIVE: ALLIES AND ENEMIES: PARIAH STATES AND WMD, IRAQ WAR (SINCE 2003), ISRAEL/PALESTINE 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..122 2. South Africa’s relations with so-called ‘pariah states’ and the non-proliferation of WMD…………………………………………………………………………………………..122 2.1 US perspective…………………………………………………………………..…………….142 2.2 SA perspective………………………………………………………………………….…......145 3. Iraq War (since 2003)…………………………………………………………………………..149 3.1 US perspective……………………………………………………………………………......156 3.2 SA perspective……………………………………………………………………………......159 4. Israel/Palestine…………………………………………………………………………………161 4.1 US perspective……………………………………………………………………………......168 4.2 SA perspective……………………………………………………………………………......169 5. Summary……………………………………………………………………………………….171 6. CHAPTER SIX: GLOBAL FIGHTS: HIV/AIDS, US LED WAR ON TERRORISM AND MULTILATERALISM 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..175 2. HIV/AIDS………………………………………………………………………………...…….176 2.1 US perspective…………………………………………………………………………….......184 2.2 SA perspective…………………………………………………………………………….......187 3. US led War on Terrorism………………………………………………………………………189 3.1 US perspective…………………………………………………………………..…………….210 3.2 SA perspective………………………………………………………………………………...212 4. Multilateralism……………………………………………………………………………….…215 4.1 US perspective…………………………………………………………………..…………….222 4.2 SA perspective…………………………………………………………………………….......224 5. Summary………………………………………………………………………………………..226 7. CHAPTER SEVEN: FOCUS ON AFRICA: ZIMBABWE, DEMOCRACY PROMOTION AND CHINA IN AFRICA 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..230 2. Zimbabwe……………………………………………………………………………………….230 2.1 US perspective…………………………………………………………………………..…......237 2 2.2 SA perspective……………………………………………………………………………......240 3. Democracy promotion…………………………………………………………………............242 3.1 US perspective……………………………………………………………………………......244 3.2 SA perspective……………………………………………………………………………......245 4. China in Africa……………………………………………………………………………..….248 4.1 US perspective………………………………………………………………………………..250 4.2 SA perspective……………………………………………………………………………......251 5. Summary……………………………………………………………………………………….254 CHAPTER EIGHT: AN APPLICATION OF ASYMMETRY THEORY 1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………….................257 2. Inattention and overattention………………………………………………………………......257 3. Deference, autonomy and misperception……………………………………………….……...266 4. Managing the asymmetric relationship……………………………………………………......271 4.1 Routinization………………………………………………………………………………….272 4.2 Diplomatic ritual………………………………………………………………………………272 4.3 Neutralization………………………………………………………………………………….278 4.4 Societies and history…………………………………………………………………………..284 4.5 Friendship to hostility…………………………………………………………………………287 5. Summary………………………………………………………………………………………..288 CHAPTER NINE: CONCLUSION 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………..291 2. Research questions revisited…………………………………………………………………….292 3. Self-perception…………………………………………………………………………….........293 3.1 America’s self-perception……………………………………………………………………..293 3.2 South Africa’s self-perception………………………………………………………………...295 4. Asymmetry theory and the study of the US-South Africa relationship………………………...297 4.1 Inattention and overattention………………………………………………………………….298 4.2 Deference and autonomy……………………………………………………………………...300 4.3 Misperception, routinization and neutralization………………………………………………301 4.4 Diplomatic ritual………………………………………………………………………………303 4.5 Societies and history…………………………………………………………………..............304 4.6 Friendship to hostility…………………………………………………………………………304 4.7 Value of asymmetry theory………………………………………………………………........307 5. The likely direction of the relationship…………………………………………………………309 6. Future research………………………………………………………………………………….315 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………...318 ANNEXURES…………………………………………………………………………………….352 3 SUMMARY When the new South African government took power in 1994, the United States (US) pictured a bright future with a strategic country. They envisioned a strong partnership in political, economic and security realms. Although the US has consistently labeled their bilateral relationship with South Africa as ‘excellent,’ government officials from both countries at the end of 2008 expressed concern about the perceived crisis that US-South African relations was in. Against this backdrop, this thesis explores the bilateral relationship between the US, a global power, and South Africa, a regional power, assessing the key issues from 1994-2008. This thesis attempts to achieve an understanding of the relationship by using a new paradigm developed by Professor Brantly Womack of the University of Virginia (US), entitled asymmetry theory. His theory, which was developed after decades of studying the political landscape between states in Southeast Asia, addresses the effects of national disparities on asymmetric bilateral relationships. This thesis breaks new ground by testing Womack’s asymmetry theory in relation to the US and South Africa, two countries located outside the continent of Asia. Moreover, this is the first study where the theory has been applied to a relationship between a global and regional power. This thesis argues that there was a considerable downward swing in US-South African relations during the Bush Administration due to the confliction of several vital principles in each country’s foreign policy, the structural implications of asymmetry, and the lack of an institution were US and South African government officials could quickly communicate to clarify any disputes or misperceptions that may have arisen. This thesis argues that the bilateral relationship has changed from normalization to normalcy throughout the time period although there are still significant hurdles to overcome in the future. Additionally, this thesis argues that the value of asymmetry theory has proven itself in its illumination of the dynamics of the