Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences

THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Homeland Security View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences Martin C. Libicki, Peter Chalk, Melanie Sisson Prepared for the Department of Homeland Security This research was sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security and was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastucture, Safety, and Environment. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Libicki, Martin C. Exploring terrorist targeting preferences / Martin C. Libicki, Peter Chalk, Melanie Sisson. p. cm. “MG-483.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3913-X (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. I. Chalk, Peter. II. Sisson, Melanie. III. Title. HV6432.L53 2007 363.325—dc22 2006011784 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Each year, federal, state, and local governments spend billions of dol- lars protecting the United States against acts of terrorism, with human, military, and capital resources allocated in ways that reflect each potential target’s value and vulnerability. Yet those buildings, institutions, and icons that the United States perceives as being of utmost value may not be those that its potential attackers perceives that way. That one potential attack may hurt the United States more than another does not mean that terrorists believe that the first would advance their goals any more than would the second. The goal of this investigation is to assess on what basis al Qaeda would select targets within the United States. Four hypotheses have been considered. The coercion hypothesis posits that acts of terrorism would be designed to cause pain and thereby influence U.S. foreign policy. The damage hypothesis posits that they are designed to hurt the U.S. economy and thereby reduce the means available to support U.S. foreign policy. The rally hypothesis posits that such acts are meant to rally support in the Muslim world. The franchise hypothesis assumes that al Qaeda has limits on its ability to direct terrorist acts and, instead, supports such acts carried out by like-minded terrorists. This study tested these hypotheses by examining major terrorist events (associated with al Qaeda) over the last dozen years, looking at al Qaeda writings, and soliciting the informed judgment of experts. This study was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Office of Comparative Studies. iii iv Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences The information presented here should be of interest to homeland security policymakers and members of the intelligence community who focus on terrorism. This monograph is one of two under the study “Understanding Terrorist Motives, Targets, and Responses,” with Martin Libicki as principal investigator. The RAND Homeland Security Program This research was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environ- ment (ISE). The mission of RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Envi- ronment is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. Homeland Secu- rity Program research supports the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies charged with preventing and mitigating the effects of terrorist activity within U.S. borders. Projects address critical infrastructure protection, emergency management, terrorism risk management, border control, first responders and preparedness, domestic threat assessments, domestic intelligence, and workforce and training. Questions or comments about this monograph should be sent to the project leader, Martin Libicki ([email protected]). Infor- mation about the Homeland Security Program is available online (http://www.rand.org/ise/security/). Inquiries about homeland security research projects should be sent to the following address: Michael Wermuth, Director Homeland Security Program, ISE RAND Corporation 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 703-413-1100, x 5414 [email protected] Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Glossary .......................................................................... xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO What Drives al Qaeda’s Choice of Targets? .................................. 5 The al Qaeda Targeting Process: Four Hypotheses ............................ 8 The Coercion Hypothesis ....................................................... 9 The Damage Hypothesis .......................................................11 The Rally Hypothesis...........................................................12 The Franchise Hypothesis......................................................14 Some Observations on Rationality..............................................18 Alternatives to Rational Action..................................................19 Organization.......................................................................21 CHAPTER THREE Hypothesis Testing: Quantitative and Qualitative Measures .......... 24 Measuring Intent................................................................. 24 v vi Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences Quantitative Measures .........................................................25 Qualitative Measures ...........................................................25 Modeling Intent .................................................................. 26 Coercion ........................................................................ 26 Damage ..........................................................................29 Rally ............................................................................. 30 Franchise .........................................................................31 Testing Hypotheses Against Past Attacks ......................................32 World Trade Center (WTC), New York, 1993............................. 34 Khobar Towers, Riyadh, 1996 ................................................35 East Africa Embassy Bombings, Nairobi and Dar Es Salam, 1998...... 36 USS Cole, Yemen, 2000 ........................................................37 WTC, New York, and Pentagon, Arlington, Virginia, 2001 ..............37 Bali, 2002 ........................................................................39 Djerba, 2002 ................................................................... 40 MV Limburg, Yemen, 2002................................................... 40 Mombasa, 2002 .................................................................41

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