lasaforum fall 2011 : volume xlii : issue 4 debates

The Illness of President Hugo Chávez Frías: Catalyst for Crisis or Revolutionary Consolidation? by David J. Myers | Penn State University | [email protected]

Introduction credible as Venezuela approaches the 2012 the first time, he declared that he was a presidential election? Marxist. Eleven months later the Chavista- On June 30, 2011 President Hugo Chávez controlled National Assembly (AN) passed unsettled Venezuelan politics by revealing an “enabling law” that gave the president that doctors had removed a cancerous Venezuelan Polity on the Eve of the Cancer legislative powers for eighteen months and tumor from his abdomen and that he Announcement approved a collection of laws (the so-called would undergo chemotherapy. The Cuban Package) that imposed most of the 56-year-old president had opined on many Measures introduced by President Chávez changes that had been rejected in the occasions that he expected to continue in during the run-up to presidential elections referendum of December 2007. These office until 2031, but the discovery of in 2006 tilted the electoral playing field in actions brought a strong public rebuke cancer raised questions about his ability to his favor. Nevertheless, opposition political from the Archbishop of Caracas, Cardinal run in the 2012 presidential election. leaders did not repeat the mistake made Jorge Urosa Savino. Opponents of the regime feared that should during his first term when on three Hugo Chávez Frías win those elections he occasions they attempted to remove him by As of June 2011 social and economic would snuff out the last vestiges of force. In 2006 the opposition played by conditions in Venezuela were improving. representative democracy, impose a the rules when they ran Manuel Rosales in This reinforced positive attitudes toward command economy, restrict civil liberties the presidential election and Rosales the Chávez government (52 percent of and render political competition graciously recognized President Chavez’s those polled) and identification with the meaningless. For this reason they had victory. Two years later, in regional official political party, PSUV (30 percent). united in an umbrella organization, the elections, opposition political parties Except for the construction industry, the United Democratic Table (MUD), to competed and elected governors in the economy had recovered from the recession contest the upcoming presidential election. most populous states. In the legislative of 2009. Industrial production was up 7.8 Chávez’s supporters, in contrast, looked elections of December 7, 2010 opposition percent, Gross Domestic Product had forward to consolidating their socialist candidates split the popular vote evenly grown 4.5 percent and unemployment model during the 2013–2019 presidential with candidates of the government political hovered around 8.5 percent. The rate of term. Indeed, most Venezuelan elites saw party, the Partido Socialista Unido de government spending was set to increase by the 2012 presidential election as a possible Venezuela (PSUV). However, the electoral one third, which would benefit the tipping point. system limited opposition parties to 40 pro-government middle class known as the percent of National Assembly deputies. “Boliburgesía.” High crime rates and lack This work examines the impact of of personal security remained a major President Hugo Chávez’s illness on Abandonment of efforts to remove problem, as did deterioration of the Venezuelan politics. It views Venezuela as President Chávez by extra-constitutional physical infrastructure. On balance, approaching an important fork on the path means did not soften his hostility toward however, satisfaction with economic gains of political development. Tensions are the opposition. For him they remained Los trumped concern over increasing social escalating but President Chávez’s illness did Escuálidos (the squalid ones), linked to the control by the state. not create the tensions; it merely added discredited political parties, the oligarchy, seasoning to an already dicey situation. multinational corporations and the U.S. Probing the political impact of the government. In December 2007 President Fallout From the Illness President’s illness requires us to ask four Chávez held a referendum that would questions: What were the salient allow for his indefinite reelection, end the In his June 30 address to the nation characteristics of the country’s politics on Central Bank’s autonomy and recentralize President Chávez declared that he was well June 30, 2011? How did the announcement the state. Voters rejected these changes, but along the road to recovery. However, by President Chávez that he had cancer in a second referendum on February 14, reports circulated that he had only a 50 affect the behavior of important political 2009 they approved reelection for all office percent chance to live more than eighteen actors? How did the President deal with holders. This emboldened the president months. Vice-President Elías Jaua and the the reaction of political actors to his who speeded up the pace of social cabinet quickly proclaimed their unity in illness? What political scenarios are most transformation. On January 15, 2010, for support of the stricken leader, but

10 uncertainty over the nature of Chávez’s Within the opposition, reaction was University, President Chávez concluded illness sparked the fiercest conflict within guarded to news of the president’s illness. with the boast that “the transition that is his movement since it had taken power. In the first place, opposition leaders did not coming is to socialism.” In subsequent Two important factions emerged. One know how grave the illness was. Most television appearances he displayed his fiery centered on the military and the other believed that a life-threatening or rhetoric by calling the opposition MUD a included leftist civilians such as Foreign incapacitating illness presented them with a “nest of serpents and snakes.” On July 17, Minister Nicolas Maduro, Vice President golden opportunity to defeat the Chavistas as he departed for Havana to begin a new Jaua and the President’s older brother, in free elections. However, open rejoicing round of chemotherapy, President Chávez Adán Chávez. over the president’s predicament would boasted that he would rise “like a phoenix.” appear to be in poor taste and likely He appeared satisfied that he had Diosdado Cabello and Jessie Chacón cast self-defeating. Thus, opposition leaders succeeded in restoring the political long shadows within the armed forces. attended public religious services in which situation to what it was prior to the They belonged to the President’s military Roman Catholic, evangelical and Santeria announcement of his illness. cohort and acted as trusted lieutenants in clergy offered prayers for the President and the unsuccessful coup of February 4, 1992. petitioned for his recovery. Those who Chávez returned to Caracas on July 23 and Each received an important cabinet planned to compete in the opposition remained in Venezuela until September 17, portfolio under President Chávez, but more primary elections scheduled for February when he again journeyed to Cuba for a recently they had devoted themselves to 12 followed the lead of Henrique Capriles fourth (and final?) round of chemotherapy. private economic activity and accumulated Radonski, the governor of Miranda State, Soon after his return he announced that he fortunes. Many active-duty military who declared that he looked forward to would run for reelection as president. A personnel are also rumored to have campaigning against and defeating a flood of press releases from the President’s amassed personal wealth. These healthy President Chávez in the 2012 office followed, highlighting the opportunities would vanish if the Chavista presidential elections. Comandante’s determination to fight for movement lost power. Like most of the his people while defeating the disease that President’s supporters his generals were not had invaded his body. However, he no confident that Chavismo without Chávez Reasserting Control and Regaining longer appeared on television for hours at a could carry the day. News of the Momentum time, as he had in the past. When he did president’s cancer led the generals to begin appear in public he emphasized the themes laying the groundwork for justifying their Infighting among his supporters brought that marked his discourse since 2007: the refusal to accept defeat in the 2012 President Chávez back to Caracas on July importance of completing the transition to presidential elections. 4, earlier than planned. In a meeting with Twenty-First Century socialism, the visiting heads of state the following evening corruption of the oligarchy and their Militantly leftist Chavista civilian leaders and by appearing at Fort Tiuna (the most “squalid” minions and the dangers posed made many of the same calculations as important military base in Caracas) on the by the United States. their military comrades. As early as June morning of July 7 President Chávez 27 Adán Chávez opined in the Venezuelan proclaimed that he remained in control. Opposition leaders responded to the media that it would be “unforgivable” for During an early morning jog with cadets at President’s improving health and efforts to the government “to limit itself only to Fort Tiuma their comandante told reporters accelerate the Bolivarian Revolution by electoral ways, and not to pursue other that never again would the opposition resuming preparations to fight what they methods of struggle, including armed govern the fatherland. On that afternoon viewed as an epic battle for survival. More struggle,” to stay in power. This suggested the President convened a cabinet meeting opposition politicians announced their that ideological and operational differences during which he confirmed the portfolios intention to run in the February opposition between the two factions of Chavismo were of all incumbents and added a new primary elections while promising to not great. The core conflict between them, Minister of Youth (Mari Pili Hernández). campaign for the victor in the general and it should not be underestimated, was The following week, in a highly publicized election. As of late September, Henrique over control of the rent-dispensing state. telephone call to educators at the Capriles Radonsky (Governor of the state headquarters of the National Bolivarian of Miranda) and Pablo Pérez (Governor of

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the state of Zulia) had established cancer incapacitate him two other scenarios armed forces could maintain order and themselves as first-tier candidates. The will come into play. preserve the revolution. Regardless, it is former appealed mainly to interests that in clear that the return of the President’s the previous regime had backed the Social In the first, the President’s older brother cancer would destabilize Venezuela, Christian party (COPEI). The latter drew Adán or Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro transform Chavismo and open the door to support from groups once associated with would step forward. In consultation with victory by the opposition in the 2012 Acción Democrática, the social democratic the Castro brothers—who have much to presidential election. The scenario in which party. The chronology of confrontation lose if the opposition wins the 2012 President Chávez is capable of conducting gelled in mid-September, when the National presidential election—Chávez nominates a credible reelection campaign appears Electoral Council scheduled the presidential either Adán or Maduro as the government’s more probable. n election for October 7, 2012 and the presidential candidate. The former has regional elections for governor and state been the President’s top liaison with Cuba’s legislatures for December. In a brazen regime. He is currently governor of the challenge to the government, the MUD Chávez family’s native Barinas state and is petitioned the National Assembly to pass a part of the Chavismo’s radical leftist, transition law, arguing that it was necessary pro-Cuban wing. Nicolas Maduro is close because the government would surely lose to the President, charismatic and more the election. President Chávez called the popular with the inner circle than Adán. petition “a bad joke.” Both have indicated that they would go beyond “electoral ways” to insure that the To summarize, as of late September 2011 revolution remained in power. the political ground in Venezuela lay much as it had in early June, prior to the cancer The second scenario revolves about a surgery. In addition, President Chávez had military-supported “Boliburgesía” announced that he would run for a third candidate. It would come to pass should a term and half of all Venezuelans viewed his fierce power struggle erupt within the government favorably. The Comandante president’s inner circle. To prevent chaos, appeared capable of waging a vigorous Venezuela’s military hierarchy would reelection campaign although doubts persuade the president to appoint former persisted. The position of the opposition Vice President Diosdado Cabello—Chávez’s was not hopeless. It was better organized all-purpose aide—as the government’s than at any time since the national elections presidential candidate. This would appeal of 1998. Nevertheless, President Chávez to top military officers who have become stood an excellent chance of winning a multimillionaires but do not support a third term. This would devastate the Cuban-style communist model. Also, the opposition’s ability to prevent him from military fears that radical civilians in the dismantling the last vestiges of inner circle would replace the armed forces representative democracy. with Cuban-styled semi-independent territorial militias. In the final analysis the generals would support Cabello because Health, Still the Wild Card they believe he would lead a crony capitalist government without abandoning The “Chávez Recovery Scenario” discussed Chávez’s radical leftist rhetoric. above assumes that the President will be able to conduct a credible reelection President Chávez would likely prefer the campaign. However, should the return of first alternative although he might opt for the second if he believed that only the

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