Countering the Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks
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C O R P O R A T I O N Counternetwork Countering the Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks Angel Rabasa, Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Peter Chalk, Douglas Farah, Gregory Midgette, Howard J. Shatz For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1481 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9477-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org This work is dedicated to the memory of our friend and colleague Angel Rabasa (1948-2016) Preface The expansion of transnational criminal networks (TCNs) involved in the trafficking of drugs, arms, persons, and illicit goods is one of the most serious threats to U.S. security interests in the Western Hemi- sphere and a major challenge in other critical regions of the world. These networks have taken advantage of advances in communications and transportation to expand their global reach—and in some cases, have converged with terrorist groups and other illicit actors. Beyond the threat associated with trafficking itself, these transnational crimi- nal alliances pose new security threats to the United States and its friends and allies. Increasingly, there is a convergence of criminal and terrorist groups that leverage the clandestine pipelines established by TCNs to move operatives and materials and expand their operations. The activities of TCNs are also major drivers of the destabilization or criminalization of weak states where these networks operate. In the northern tier of Central American countries, and in parts of Mexico, West Africa, and the Sahel, criminal groups and gangs have established alternative power centers that have displaced or co-opted state institu- tions such as the police, the judiciary, and local governments. This report analyzes two transnational criminal pipelines origi- nating in South America: one from the Andean region through Cen- tral America and Mexico to the United States, and the other from South America across the Atlantic to West Africa and the Sahel, and then to Europe. The research is organized around four tasks: v vi Countering the Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks 1. Identify operational characteristics of TCNs and strategic alli- ances among criminal groups and other actors along the key nodes of clandestine smuggling routes. 2. Examine how transnational criminal networks threaten U.S. interests. 3. Describe and analyze U.S. government policies and programs to combat these networks. 4. Identify potential U.S. Army roles consistent with U.S. policy to combat TCNs. The emphasis will be on recommendations for proactive, rather than reactive, approaches that will provide the U.S. Army with concep- tual tools to improve U.S. and regional governments’ ability to prevent or mitigate the effects of TCN activities. This report should be of inter- est to the U.S. Army and, more broadly, the Department of Defense, interagency task forces charged with counternarcotics or counterterror- ism missions, other U.S. government agencies with national and inter- national security responsibilities, academics and researchers in the field of nontraditional security threats, and international audiences. This research was sponsored by the Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office in the Office of the U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, and prepared in the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the U.S. Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD146867. Contents Preface .............................................................................. v Figures and Tables ............................................................... xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Counternarcotics and Countering Transnational Organized Crime ........ 4 Destabilizing Effects of Transnational Criminal Networks ................... 8 Criminalized States and Criminal Insurgencies ...............................12 The U.S. Army’s Role in Combating Transnational Criminal Networks ......................................................................14 Road Map to the Report .........................................................15 CHAPTER TWO A Model of the Transnational Criminal Network Value Chain .........17 Transnational Criminal Network Activities and Their Drivers ..............17 Organizational Form: Integration Across Tasks ...............................19 The Value Chain Approach to Transnational Criminal Network Structures .................................................................... 20 Transaction Costs and the Economics of Organization ..................... 22 Bridging Theory and Practice ................................................... 26 vii viii Countering the Expansion of Transnational Criminal Networks CHAPTER THREE Source Countries and Supply Chains ....................................... 27 Illegal Drug Infrastructure in Source Countries ............................. 27 Venezuela: A Key Drug Transit Platform ......................................35 CHAPTER FOUR The Mexican Supply Chain ................................................... 43 Main Players ...................................................................... 46 Impact on National Stability ....................................................58 Weaknesses in Mexico’s Counternetwork Response ..........................65 CHAPTER FIVE Central America: The Retreat of the State and the Expansion of Illicit Power Centers ...............................................................69 Transportista Networks ...........................................................72 Transnational Gangs ............................................................. 80 Impact on National Stability ....................................................83 Counternetwork Efforts in Central America ..................................91 Weakness in Central America’s Counternetwork Response ................ 94 CHAPTER SIX The Trans-Atlantic Route: South America to West Africa .............. 97 Main Players ..................................................................... 101 Impact on National and Regional Stability .................................. 102 Counternetwork Efforts in West Africa ...................................... 106 Weaknesses in the West African Counternetwork Response .............. 110 CHAPTER SEVEN Convergence of Organized Crime and Terrorism ....................... 113 CHAPTER EIGHT Combatant Command, Joint Task Force, and Army Service Component Command Counternetwork Activities ................ 121 United States Northern Command ........................................... 121 United States Southern Command ........................................... 126 United States Africa Command .............................................. 132 Contents ix CHAPTER NINE Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................... 137 U.S. Governmentwide–Level Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 137 U.S. Army Roles in Countering Transnational Criminal Networks ...... 142 APPENDIX Authorities and Policies for Countering Transnational Organized Crime ......................................................... 147 References ...................................................................... 165 Figures and Tables Figures 2.1. Visualization of a Transnational Criminal Network Value Chain for Cocaine ...................................................21 3.1. Airborne Drug Trafficking from Venezuela ..................... 36 A.1. Defense Department Counterdrug Budget (FYs 1989–2015) ................................................... 154 A.2. Intersection of Threats to U.S. National Security .............. 160 Tables 3.1. Main Criminal Bands in Colombia ...............................31 4.1. Principal Border Crossing Points for Illegal Cocaine Shipments to the United States ....................................45 4.2. Mexican Drug Cartels ..............................................47