Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey

April 2019 Methodology Figure 1

❖ National survey o Conducted April 11 to 28, 2019 o 980 face-to-face interviews o Margin of error is +/- 3.1 at the 95% confidence level o Demographically and geographically representative Conclusions Figure 2

❖ Extreme polarization ❖ Rejection of Maduro regime, but base of support ❖ Strong support for Guaidó ❖ U.S. and allied countries viewed positively ❖ Support for elections under Guaidó and targeted sanctions ❖ Division on military foreign intervention ❖ Chávez’s legacy mixed Maduro Widely Rejected, but Has a Base of Support

Figure 3 Political blocs Figure 4

Political Blocs

PSUV

Supporters of anti-regime political parties 28 31 No party affiliation

41 Demographic breakdown of political blocs Figure 5

PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

18 - 29 32 43 40 30 - 39 23 24 22 40 - 49 18 14 23 50 - 59 18 14 11 50+ years: 50+ years: 50+ years: 60+ 8 26 4 18 5 16

Some high school 27 17 21 High school graduates 54 48 45 Technical studies/some univ 12 25 26 University grad/post-grad 6 9 8

Rural 32 17 18 Urban 64 78 78

0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 Profound dissatisfaction, but regime maintains considerable base Figure 6

Generally speaking, would you say the situation in the country is going in a very good, good, bad, or very bad direction?

Very good Very good/good Very bad Very bad/bad

100 90 98 90 80 70 75 71 60 68

50 54 40 45 30 29 20 24 10 2 7 9 0 3 1 0 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Poor rating for Maduro's performance, and extraordinary polarization Figure 7

In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro?

Excellent/good Very bad/bad Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad February June April 2018 2018 2019 April 2019 – Bloc 100 100 99 90 90 95 80 75 74 73 80 86 70 70 69 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 24 23 25 10 10 12 0 3 0 0 6 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Maduro has lost support from lower social classes Figure 8

In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro?

Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad

Education 100 90 80 84 82 70 70 60 66 65 60 50 40 49 43 30 31 20 29 10 16 17 0 Some High school Technical studies/ University grad/ high school graduates some university post-grad Venezuelans reject other PSUV leaders Figure 9

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Favorable Unfavorable 100 90 80 70 72 68 69 60 50 40 30 26 20 23 24 10 0 Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino Opinions of military and their families dovetail with those of civilians Figure 10

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorable Unfavorable

Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino 100 90 80 70 69 71 72 69 60 65 68 50 40 30 20 28 26 23 23 25 24 10 0 Soldiers/ Non-military Soldiers/ Non-military Soldiers/ Non-military family in families family in families family in families military military military Government blamed for economic crisis and blackouts Figure 11

And who do you think is to blame for the economic Who is to blame for the electric blackout in situation in Venezuela: the Maduro government, the Venezuela: the Maduro government, the United United States, the opposition, or private States, the opposition, or private companies? companies?

The government 64 The government 68

United States 12 United States 16

The opposition 12 The opposition 9

Private companies 4 Private companies 1

0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 Frustration with rejection of humanitarian aid Figure 12

Do you think that the government of Nicolás Maduro should have allowed the entry of humanitarian assistance provided by the United States, Brazil and other countries that recognize Juan Guaidó or do you think the Maduro government was right to block the entry of humanitarian aid into the country?

Total Bloc 100 90 96 93 80 78 25 70 60 50 40 30 73 20 10 15 4 5 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Allowed Blocked Allowed Blocked Disapproval of Maduro-backed institutions Figure 13

Now, I'm going to read some institutions: When I read each name, please tell me if you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the role that institution has played in the present political situation.

Approve Disapprove 100 90 80 70 67 66 60 63 59 50 40 38 30 34 31 33 20 10 0 Asamblea Nacional Asamblea Nacional Tribunal Supremo Consejo Nacional Constituyente de Justicia Electoral Large-scale migration will continue, with political impact Figure 14

Thinking about the next few months, what would you prefer: move to another country or stay in Venezuela?

Total Bloc 100 90 96 9 80 70 32 60 50 40 47 40 43 30 36 56 20 8 10 4 0 15 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Depends on how things go Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Depends on how things go Strong Backing for Guaidó

Figure 15 Guaidó is only politician with favorable rating Figure 16

I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions.

Favorable Unfavorable 100 90 80 70 60 50 52 54 54 40 45 39 30 36 29 30 20 10 0 Henrique Capriles Leopoldo López María Corina Machado Juan Guaidó Confidence in Guaidó’s leadership Figure 17

How would you rate the role played by Juan How much confidence do you have in Juan Guaidó Guaidó as interim president appointed by the to lead a political transition in Venezuela: a lot, National Assembly: excellent, good, bad or very some, little or no confidence? bad?

Excellent Excellent/good A lot A lot/some Very bad Very bad/bad None None/little 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 59 50 58 50 40 40 39 30 30 33 32 30 20 20 22 10 16 10 0 0 Guaidó seen as more than just a transition figure Figure 18

If presidential elections are held while Guaidó is interim president, do you think he should run as a candidate or should he only serve as president during the transition?

Total Bloc 100 90 80 85 70 28 60 65 68 50 40 30 60 20 10 14 13 15 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Run as candidate Only transitional Run as candidate Only transitional Guaidó would easily defeat Maduro Figure 19

If presidential elections are held this year, and the candidates are Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó, for whom would you vote?

Total Bloc 100 90 95 93 8 80 70 28 75 60 50 40 30 20 61 10 6 1 3 1 2 13 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet Maduro would lose election under any scenario Figure 20

And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro and And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro, Leopoldo López, for whom would you vote? Leopoldo López and Henry Falcón, for whom would you vote? 100 100

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 57 50 48 40 40

30 30 28 27 20 20

10 10 9 10 9 0 0 Maduro López No sabe Maduro López Falcón No sabe todavía todavía Support for Elections Under Guaidó and Targeted Sanctions

Figure 21 Clear majority wants Armed Forces to support Guaidó Figure 22

And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó?

Total Bloc 100 90 97 91 80 70 31 60 67 50 40

58 30 20 10 1 2 9 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Maduro Guaidó Maduro Guaidó Soldiers and their families want military to support Guaidó Figure 23

And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó?

Maduro Guaidó

100 90 80 70 60 59 50 55 40 30 33 31 20 10 0 Soldiers/ Non-military families family in military Opponents support amnesty for government and army Figure 24

As you know, Juan Guaidó has offered an amnesty to senior government officials, including Nicolás Maduro, and members of the army who support a transition to a new constitutional government. Crimes against humanity, such as murder and torture, would be exempt from amnesty. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with amnesty for government officials and army members who support a transition to a new constitutional government?

Strongly agree Strongly disagree Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly/somewhat disagree

100 90 80 70 77 60 70 62 64 50 52 40 42 30 35 36 20 29 28 20 24 13 10 6 16 15 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Support for elections under Guaidó, sanctions and action by army Figure 25

Now I am going to read you a list of possible ways to solve the political situation in Venezuela. For each of them, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?

Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree

Nicolás Maduro resigns, and new elections are held under the provisional presidency of Juan Guaidó 55 65

Foreign countries sanction more Venezuelan officials by freezing their assets and prohibiting their ability to travel to certain countries 47 62 Majority support The Venezuelan Army removes Nicolás Maduro from the presidency 49 60

Supporters of Juan Guaidó, including soldiers who left the armed forces, take up arms to overthrow Maduro 33 52

International mediators convene a dialogue between the government and the opposition 25 52

The United States and other countries impose additional restrictions on the Maduro government's ability to access financial resources 35 51

0 20 40 60 80 100 Greater consensus on mediated dialogue Figure 26

Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?

International mediators convene a dialogue between the government and the opposition

Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly agree

Bloc 100 90 80 70 60 67 50 40 45 48 30 30 20 27 20 10 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Division on foreign military action; rejection of regime as part of solution Figure 27

Now I am going to read you a list of possible ways to solve the political situation in Venezuela. For each of them, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree? Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree

The United States and other foreign countries conduct a military operation to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency 35 49

The United States conducts a military operation alone to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency 31 49 Less than majority support An interim government is formed by representatives of Maduro and Guaidó to supervise new presidential elections and a political transition 21 47

Representatives of Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó meet for direct negotiations 19 42

New presidential elections are held while Nicolás Maduro remains in power 20 35

Nicolás Maduro resigns, and another PSUV leader assumes the Presidency 10 19

0 20 40 60 80 100 Public divided on foreign military intervention Figure 28

With which of the following statements do you agree more?

It is premature to consider a foreign military intervention to 14 resolve the political situation in Venezuela

Total

Now is the time to consider a foreign military intervention to 41 resolve the political situation in Venezuela

It will never be appropriate to consider a foreign military 43 intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela

0 20 40 60 80 Most anti-regime parties and non-affiliated want intervention now Figure 29

With which of the following statements do you agree more?

Premature Now is the moment Never appropriate

….to consider a foreign military intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela

100

90 93 80

70

60 58 50 55 40

30

20 27 21 19 10 6 0 13 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Division on sanctions against PDVSA Figure 30

Have you seen or heard anything recently about The United States recently banned payments for the actions of the United States with respect to Venezuelan oil to PDVSA. Do you support or PDVSA? oppose this action by the U.S. government?

Yes No Support Oppose

100 100 90 90 93 80 80 70 70 73 60 67 60 50 50 53 40 40 48 46 30 30 32 33 20 20 23 10 10 7 0 0 Total Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Concerns about impact of sanctions Figure 31

Thinking about the sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries on Venezuela in the last two years, have you and your family been impacted negatively or have you not been impacted?

Total Social class 100 90 80 70 73 60 34 61 50 57 55 40 59 30 33 31 20 29 22 10 0 C D E Rural

Negatively impacted Not impacted Negatively impacted Not impacted Attitudes on Role of United States, EU and Lima Group

Figure 32 Support for role of United States and allied countries Figure 33

Now I am going to read you a list of countries. After each one, please tell me if you think that country is playing a very positive, positive, negative or very negative role in the current situation in Venezuela.

Colombia 64 32

United States 59 Total positive 37 Total negative Brazil 59 29

European Union 57 27

Canada 54 28

Mexico 50 34

China 48 43

Russia 43 50

Turkey 40 44

Iran 34 49

Cuba 33 63 0 20 40 60 80 100 Receptivity to investment from other countries Figure 34

How important do you think the investment of companies from other countries is to revitalizing the Venezuelan economy?

Very important Not at all important Very/somewhat important Not at all/not very important

100 90 99 97 90 90 80 88 70 75 70 60 50 40 30 38 20 29 9 20 10 6 1 2 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime 0 Unaffiliated 0 Chávez Legacy Mixed

Figure 35 Chávez personal image negative Figure 36

I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions.

Juan Guaidó 54 36 Favorable Unfavorable Lorenzo Mendoza 45 33

Leopoldo López 39 45

Hugo Chávez 33 58

María Corina Machado 30 54

Henrique Capriles 29 52

Nicolás Maduro 26 68

Vladimir Padrino 24 69

Diosdado Cabello 23 72

0 20 40 60 80 100 Chávez receives decent rating for performance as president Figure 37

And thinking now of President Hugo Chávez, how would you rate the job he did as president: excellent, good, bad or very bad?

Excellent Very bad Excellent/good Very bad/bad

100 100 90 80 78 70 74 60 62 50 50 49 40 45 30 33 36 20 26 27 25 10 0 10 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Majority wants to expunge Chavismo; notable minority wants to incorporate Figure 38

I am going to read you two sentences and I would like you to tell me if you agree with the first sentence or agree with the second sentence:

Venezuela will never be fully democratic and economically successful until it expunges Chavismo.

For Venezuela to achieve social and political peace, Chavismo must be recognized and incorporated.

Expunge strongly agree Incorporate strongly agree Expunge strongly/somewhat agree Incorporate strongly/somewhat agree 100 90 80 71 78 70 74 60 64 62 62 50 58 40 46 30 38 23 21 20 29 20 10 19 5 12 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Majority wants to maintain some Chavista policies Figure 39

If there is a change of government: Would you like the next government to maintain all Chávez policies, maintain some of the Chávez policies or reject all Chávez policies?

Total Bloc 100 90 80 88 30 70 42 60 60 50 56 40

26 30 36 20 27 10 4 10 1 12 0 Maintain all PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Maintain some

Exclude all Maintain all Maintain some Exclude all Significant support for social programs Figure 40

And speaking of the missions, if there is a change of government do you believe that the missions should be maintained or should they be eliminated?

Total Bloc 100 90 99 80 70 60 39 50 56 51 40 56 41 30 38 20 10 1 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Maintained Eliminated Maintained Eliminated G B A O

RESEARCH + STRATEGY