CSIS BRIEFS CSIS Analyzing Obstacles to Venezuela’s Future By Moises Rendon, Mark Schneider, & Jaime Vazquez NOVEMBER 2019 THE ISSUE Despite stiff sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and internal civil protests, Nicolas Maduro and his inner circle have resisted the pressures to negotiate an exit. Three internationally-sponsored dialogue processes and two efforts at mediated negotiations within the last five years have failed, with Maduro using the time to intensify his hold on power. Different factors are impeding a transition in Venezuela. This brief investigates challenges and opportunities to help support a transition toward democracy. It describes the possible role of a Track II diplomacy initiative to produce a feasible exit ramp for Maduro—essentially the achievement of significant progress outside of the formal negotiation process. The brief also discusses potential roles for chavistas in today’s struggle and for ‘day after’ challenges, the required elements for a transitional justice process, and the basic conditions necessary for holding free and fair elections to elect a new president. BACKGROUND undiminished support from Russia, China, and Cuba, have Amid numerous blackouts, fuel shortages impacting complicated efforts to achieve a political accord leading to a agriculture and food production, and inflation on pace democratic transition. to reach over 10 million percent by the end of 2019, Venezuela’s humanitarian, economic, and political crisis QUICK FACTS has forced more than 4 million citizens to flee their • According to the United Nations, Venezuela will homeland. That number could surge past 5 million by the have over 5.3 million refugees by the end of 2019. end of 2019. • UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Exacerbating the severity of the crisis is the presence Bachelet released a detailed report of massive of armed non-state actors within Venezuela. Many human rights violations, including innumerable decisionmakers within the Maduro regime have partaken extrajudicial executions, particularly the killing in criminal operations with these armed groups, thus of protestors, political figures, and civil society creating another obstacle to any negotiated political accord1. activists. From January 2018 to May 2019, estimates Those ongoing criminal activities in Venezuela include of the killings range between 6,856, according money laundering, corruption, narcotrafficking, illegal to the Maduro government, to 9,647, according mining, contraband smuggling, and providing sanctuary to a credible human rights NGO. Bachelet just to multiple illegal armed groups that threaten regional confirmed to the UN Human Rights Council that stability. The breadth of these criminal activities, along with those extrajudicial killings have continued. CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & middle east CSIS BRIEFS | | 1 INTERNATIONAL STUDIES program WWW.CSIS.ORG • According to the NGO, Observatorio Venezolano by the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), have de Conflictividad Social, over 10,477 protests demanded that the Maduro regime: participate in free and have taken place in Venezuela since the start of fair elections with international oversight and monitoring; 2019. Over 4,000 protests have been related to the allow for unimpeded humanitarian aid; release hundreds provision of basic services. Altogether, there have of jailed political leaders and activists; dismantle the been dozens of deaths related to the repression paramilitary colectivos; dissolve the Constituent National of protestors by the Maduro regime, as well as Assembly; and respect the National Assembly. By contrast, many others detained and later disappeared. The the Maduro regime reasserted its desire for its authority protests are not highly coordinated, and with the to be accepted, argued against any early election, and exception of major demonstrations, most protests requested that the opposition leverage their international in opposition to Maduro are spontaneous. connections to eliminate the sanctions administered by the United States and a few other countries. The U.S. position has been that sanctions will not be removed until Maduro is NINE DIALOGUES IN VENEZUELA UNDER removed from power and an agreement for the restoration CHAVISMO (FIVE UNDER NICOLAS MADURO) of democracy in Venezuela is in place. In 20 years of chavista rule, 17 years have included national Four of those international mediated dialogues are of critical or international discussions to prevent further undermining importance to understanding the progress, or lack of progress, of democratic norms. Former President Hugo Chávez engaged in Venezuelan dialogues. in talks with the opposition on four different occasions, resulting in little if any results to strengthen Venezuela’s UNASUR-ADVISED DIALOGUE (MARCH-JULY 2014) democracy. The Maduro regime has engaged in talks with the Protests and civil unrest have proliferated amid Venezuela’s opposition on five instances, with every effort also falling collapsing economy and human rights violations. To quell short. Efforts from multilateral groups such as the Union of the violence, both Maduro and the opposition—then led South American Nations (UNASUR), symbolic figures such by Henrique Capriles—initiated dialogues overseen by as the Pope, and state actors such as Norway, the Dominican UNASUR. The talks yielded little progress, and UNASUR’s Republic, and Barbados have all yielded little progress so far. inability to foster engagement eroded any legitimacy of The demands from both the opposition and the Maduro the organization to affect change in the region. Throughout regime have been consistent. The opposition, represented the attempted peace process, UNASUR was seen as biased Major Events in Venezuela’s Negotiations Process GUAIDÓ BECOMES INTERIM PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA Guaido is recognized by over 54 countires within the international coomunity, 2014 – Present Day deriving legitimacy from Articles 233, 333, and 350 of the constitution. UNASUR-ADVISED DIALOGUE Spurred by mass protests against Maduro’s 4-MONTH PROTEST NORWAY-MEDIATED TALKS repression and the declining economy. Unsuccessful e “mother of all protests” in e first fact-to-face meeting between the and greatly underminded UNASUR’s legitimacy. Caracas leads to over 100 casualtites. interim government and the Maduro regime 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PAPEL-LED DIALOGUES GUAIDO CALLS FOR MILITARY UPRISING In 2016, Pope Francis attempted to mediate and facilitate Operation Liberty was unsuccessful in accomplishing a transition. However, it dialogue, unsuccessfully, between Maduro and the oppostition represents a turning point that would bring both parties to the table for the first time with Guaido leading the Opposition as Interim President. BARBADOS TALKS DOMINICAN DIALOGUE SESSION An extension of the Norwegian-led While agreements had been considered, no real agreement came from the Dominican talks. talks in Barbados. e talks fizzled after Maduro skipped the latest MADURO CLAIMS VICTORY IN A FRADULENT ELECTION round of talks in response to the Over 50 countires rejected these election results. latest U.S. sanctions regime. CSIS BRIEFS | WWW.CSIS.ORG | 2 toward the Maduro regime. In fact, more than half of Guaidó and Maduro sent delegations to engage formally for UNASUR’s member states would suspend their membership the first time in Oslo in late-spring of 2019. With a ramped- afterwards, including host member state Ecuador. up sanctions regime, the stalemate after the attempted uprising, and concerns for unity among Maduro’s coalition, PAPAL-LED DIALOGUES both sides saw reasons to participate in mediation. (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER 2016) Guaidó’s representatives called for restoring democracy Driven by mass dissatisfaction of Maduro’s escalation via a transition government and subsequent free and fair toward authoritarianism, Venezuelans led by the opposition elections. Yet, no agreements were solidified through the attempted to oust Maduro via a popular referendum. In Norwegian mediation process. However, the Norwegian- response, the Maduro-aligned National Electoral Council led talks continued in Barbados in July of 2019. Tensions claimed fraud. As protests proliferated against Maduro, Pope arose early due to Maduro arresting members of Guaidó’s Francis summoned both the regime and the various factions security detail during the failed April 30 putsch. As of of the opposition to participate in dialogue. MUD Secretary- now, the Maduro regime has not been willing to accept the General Jesus Torrealba and Henrí Falcon participated on proposals set forth by the Guaidó government, which reflect behalf of the opposition. UNASUR and the Vatican mediated the positions of the Lima Group and resolutions from the the talks and were joined by three former heads of state— Organization of American States (OAS), nor has it offered a José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (Spain), Martín Torrijos comprehensive proposal of its own. Ultimately, these talks (Panama), and Leonel Fernández (Dominican Republic). would fizzle after the Maduro regime skipped the last round of the talks in Barbados. Maduro would further exploit DOMINICAN DIALOGUE SESSIONS the suspension of talks to negotiate with several smaller (DECEMBER 2017-FEBRUARY 2018) factions of the opposition. The Venezuelan government and the opposition would participate in another series of talks hosted by the THE ROLE OF DISSIDENT Dominican Republic. The early stages of the talks were unsuccessful, as the opposition, led by President Julio Borges CHAVISTAS IN VENEZUELA Looking