LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Tuesday, December 8, 2020

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Tuesday, December 8, 2020

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Devry Boughner Vorwerk Where Has Sunday’s Mexico’s President CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Names Clouthier Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Legislative Election Economy Minister JPMorgan Chase & Co. Mexican President Andrés Manuel Paula Cifuentes López Obrador has named Tatiana Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Left Venezuela? Clouthier, his former campaign Latin America & Canada, Philip Morris International manager, as his new economy Marlene Fernández minister. A former legislator, Corporate Vice President for Clouthier replaces Graciela Government Relations, Márquez. Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s) Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue BUSINESS Donna Hrinak Senior VP, Corporate Affairs, Brazil’s GOL Royal Caribbean Group Returning Boeing Jon E. Huenemann Former Corporate and 737 Max to Service Government Senior Executive Brazilian airline GOL said it will James R. Jones In an election marked by low turnout and widespread claims of fraud, allies of Venezuelan Chairman, President Nicolás Maduro, pictured voting on Sunday, won control of the National Assembly. // return the Boeing 737 Max to Monarch Global Strategies Photo: Venezuelan Government. service on Wednesday. GOL be- comes the first airline in the world Craig A. Kelly Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro claimed a sweeping Senior Director, Americas to return the aircraft to service Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil victory as his party won control of the National Assembly on after it was grounded nearly two John Maisto Sunday in a vote that the opposition has alleged was rigged years ago. Director, U.S. Education Page 3 Finance Group Q in favor of Maduro and his allies and in which the Juan Nicolás Mariscal Guaidó-led faction of the opposition refused to participate. How will Chairman, POLITICAL Grupo Marhnos the election affect Maduro’s hold on power and Venezuela’s opposition? Thomas F. McLarty III Will the international community maintain its support for Guaidó? How U.S. Extends TPS Chairman, McLarty Associates divided is the opposition, and what implications does the split have for Designation Beatrice Rangel its efforts to oust Maduro? for Hondurans Director, AMLA Consulting LLC The United States has extended Temporary Protected Status for Jaana Remes Vanessa Neumann, former Juan Guaidó-appointed Venezu- Partner, Hondurans, the Central American McKinsey Global Institute elan ambassador to the United Kingdom: “The parliamentary nation’s president, Juan Orlando Ernesto Revilla elections that Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro held on Hernández, announced. Head of Latin American Sunday were not just a fraud, but a farce. The Maduro regime Page 2 Economics, Citi A Gustavo Roosen is illegitimate because of its previous electoral fraud in 2018. Since the Chairman of the Board, regime is illegitimate, everything it does is illegitimate. Besides being ille- Envases Venezolanos Andrés Rozental gitimate de jure, it was illegitimate de facto. Despite a plethora of threats President, Rozental & and inducements, the turnout was a risible 15 percent to 30 percent of the Asociados electorate, 30 percent being the dubious number alleged by the regime. Shelly Shetty Managing Director, Sovereigns The only international observers were acolytes of the Maduro dictator- Fitch Ratings ship, and, notably, one of the key actors in that mission was a former KGB special projects officer, Vladimir Churov. Last but not least, the very exercise committed crimes against humanity by using food as a weapon: Diosdado Cabello and others stated that those who did not participate would not eat. This is a crime against humanity, listed in the report by the U.N. fact-finding mission, the OAS and the International Criminal Court Hernández // File Photo: @DFCgov via Twitter. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS requested that TPS be granted for its citizens NEWS BRIEFS in the United States, Reuters reported. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A in the Dec. 1 issue of the Thousands Pay Tribute U.S. Extends TPS Advisor.] Designation for to Uruguay’s Vázquez Thousands of people lined the streets in Honduran Migrants ECONOMIC NEWS Montevideo to pay tribute to former Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez, who died Sunday The United States has extended Temporary at age 80 of lung cancer, BBC News reported. Protected Status for Hondurans in the wake of Mexico’s President Mourners clapped, waved flags and cried as powerful hurricanes that hit Central America Taps Clouthier as a hearse topped with flowers and carrying in recent weeks, Honduran President Juan Vázquez’s remains drove through the streets. Orlando Hernández said Monday, CNN report- Economy Minister Vázquez’s Broad Front coalition turned off all ed. Hernández requested during his trip to the lights in its headquarters, except the ones Washington last week that TPS, which allows Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Ob- in Vázquez’s office. Current President Luis migrants to remain in the United States for a rador on Monday nominated Tatiana Clouthier, Lacalle Pou announced three days of mourning period of time, be extended following the disas- his former campaign manager, as the country’s for Vázquez, who was president from 2005 to ters. “During our meeting with acting-Secretary new economy minister, the Associated Press 2010, and again from 2015 to last March. of the Department of Homeland Security [Chad reported. Clouthier, a former politician of the Wolf], they told us that the TPS, which was opposition National Action Party, replaces due to end in January, will be extended,” said Graciela Márquez, who is taking a position Trump Administration Hernández. A posting on the U.S. Citizenship on the board of Mexico’s National Statistics and Immigration Services website says TPS Restores DACA Program will be extended until Oct. 4, 2021 for people The administration of U.S. President Donald from Honduras, as well as from El Salvador, Trump said Monday that it has fully restored Haiti, Nicaragua, Nepal and Sudan. The status the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or applies to people already in the United States DACA, program, which protects hundreds of who would face extreme hardship if they were thousands of young people from deportation, forced to return to their home countries. The in accordance with a federal judge’s order, United States first granted TPS to Hondurans the Associated Press reported. However, the and Nicaraguans after Hurricane Mitch struck Department of Homeland Security said it “may Central America in 1998. Hurricanes Eta and seek relief from the order.” People until now Clouthier // File Photo: Mexican Government. Iota struck parts of Central America last have not been able to apply for protection un- month, leaving more than 200 people dead and Institute, the AP reported. Clouthier’s nomina- der the Obama-era program since Trump ended more than 100 missing. The storms caused tion is seen as an attempt by López Obrador to the initiative in September 2017. flooding and landslides and also destroyed maintain relations with the country’s business crops and infrastructure. “The economic community following the resignation last damage caused by both storms, and the blow week of the president’s chief of staff, Alfonso Mexican Challenger Bank from the pandemic, has caused the Honduran Romo. An entrepreneur, Romo will continue as economy to be greatly affected,” Honduran López Obrador’s liaison to business groups, the albo Raises $45 Million Foreign Minister Lisandro Rosales said Friday president said. Clouthier also has connections for Expansion in Mexico in a statement announcing that the country’s to northern Mexico and business groups there. Mexican challenger bank albo recently raised government had requested that the United Clouthier, the daughter of a late leader of the $45 million as it seeks to expand its network States extend TPS for Hondurans. “Recon- National Action Party, left the party in 2005 in the North American country, TechCrunch struction comes from a sustainable social and and won a seat in Mexico’s Congress in 2018 reported today. The bank has almost half a mil- economic rebuilding, and our compatriots here as a member of López Obrador’s Morena party. lion customers across Mexico and a network in the United States can [help] achieve that by Clouthier is also an advocate of renewable of 30,000 retail locations, and it is seeking to supporting their families in Honduras.” More energy, a policy area that López Obrador’s become “the premiere Internet-based finan- than 44,000 Hondurans currently residing in the critics say he has neglected, Reuters reported. cial services provider for Mexico’s large and United States are protected by TPS, the state- López Obrador has struggled to deliver on the growing middle class,” said albo founder Ángel ment said. Guatemala’s government has also 4 percent economic growth that he has sought Sahagún.

COPYRIGHT © 2020, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Tuesday, December 8, 2020 to achieve. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 hit, Mexico fell into a recession last year. [Edi- tor’s note: See related Q&A in the Nov. 9 issue in The Hague. The international community im president of Venezuela and will remain in of the Advisor.] must not be fooled by Sunday’s farce, but it that position until free and fair presidential does bode badly: Maduro could be viewed elections are held. The opposition remains as stronger than ever, prompting some in united around the objective to secure free BUSINESS NEWS the opposition to either go to the side of and fair presidential and parliamentarian the dictatorship or try to replace Guaido as elections. As expected in a broad coalition leader of the legitimate National Assembly of democratic forces, there are different Brazil’s GOL Airlines of 2015, whence his constitutional authority views on how to attain these objectives, but Returning Boeing 737 as interim president derives, come Jan. 5. none of these views jeopardizes our collec- With coronavirus and economic downturns tive responsibility.” Max to Service around the world, Venezuela’s fighters for democracy risk its allies becoming weary and Marco Rubio, U.S. senator Brazilian airline GOL will be the first airline in distracted, while the suffering of Venezue- (R-Fla.): “The recent fraudulent the world to resume passenger flights on the lans deepens and prolongs.” electoral process held by the Boeing 737 Max after nearly two years, the A Maduro regime is nothing more carrier announced Monday. GOL will restart Carlos Vecchio, Juan than an attempt to silence the voice of inter- domestic commercial flights, to its hub in São Guaidó-appointed Venezue- im President Juan Guaidó and the members Paulo, on the aircraft starting Wednesday. “All lan ambassador to the United of Venezuela’s National Assembly. While the seven Boeing 737 Max aircraft in GOL’s current A States: “When there is no quali- Venezuelan people vastly abstained from fleet should be cleared to return fully to oper- fied electoral arbiter, democratic leaders are voting, once more the narco-regime has stripped of their political rights, 350 political manipulated the results through an undem- prisoners are locked up, parties are hijacked, ocratic and illegitimate process. After years no qualified international observers are of tyranny and oppression, the Venezuelan GOL will restart flights allowed into the country—and when the pop- people have made their voices heard: it’s to São Paulo on the 737 ulation, a third of which is undernourished, is time for the dictator to go.” threatened with ‘no vote, no food!’ by PSUV Max on Wednesday. Vice President Diosdado Cabello—it’s a Gabriel B. Hetland, assistant misnomer to call this an election. By forcing professor of Latin American, a fraud, Maduro removed the prospects for a Caribbean and U.S. Latino peaceful negotiation. Instead, he jeopardizes A Studies at the State University ation and will be gradually reincorporated into Venezuelans’ future and confirms that any of New York at Albany: “Per official results, the company’s flight schedules in alignment solution to the complex humanitarian emer- nearly 70 percent of Venezuelan voters ab- with its operational needs,” GOL said in the gency must address the political situation. stained from the elections. This marks a full statement. GOL also said passengers will be He is the root cause of Venezuela’s tragedy reversal from the 2015 parliamentary vote, informed that they are flying on the Boeing 737 and clings to power by perpetrating crimes which saw a record turnout of more than Max, and they will be able to exchange their against humanity, as evidenced by the 70 percent. Far from marking a victory for tickets for other flights if they do not want to U.N. Human Rights Council’s Independent the hardline opposition pushing a boycott, fly on it. The Boeing 737 Max was grounded in Fact-Finding Mission. The international com- the high abstention rate points to Venezue- March of last year following two deadly crash- munity knows there were no conditions for lans’ disgust with the political options they es that killed 346 people, CNN reported. The an election. Indeed, the European Union, the face: continuation of the monstrous status jet was redesigned during the 20-month safety OAS and countries, such as Japan, rejected quo or an incoherent, increasingly divided ban, and the U.S. Federal Aviation Adminis- this farce. In the United States, Venezuela opposition lacking a positive program. tration last month cleared the plane to carry remains a solid bipartisan cause. President As was widely expected, the results have passengers again, Reuters reported. Brazil is Juan Guaidó is president by virtue of article consolidated Nicolás Maduro’s grip on the only other country whose aviation regulator 233 of the constitution, not the result of Venezuela’s political institutions by giving has also approved resumption of flights on the capricious desire. In the absence of a valid the ruling PSUV supermajority control over Boeing 737 Max, CNN reported. GOL only flies presidential election, the elected president the National Assembly. Initial official results Boeing aircraft, making it a major customer of of the National Assembly became the inter- give the PSUV 67.7 percent of the vote, the aircraft maker. Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2020 the nonboycotting opposition parties 18 Geoff Ramsey, director for Ven- percent and the Communist Party (PCV) a ezuela at the Washington Office Erik Brand dismal 2.7 percent. These results constitute on Latin America: “Venezuela’s Publisher [email protected] a victory for no one. While the government legislative elections were held A Gene Kuleta will gain control of the National Assembly, Sunday amid deep irregularities, and around Editor the low turnout reflects growing dissent, 70 percent of voters abstained. We need to [email protected] not only among the upper and middle be clear: this was not a free and fair vote. Anastasia Chacón González classes, but also among popular classes, But it’s equally as important to understand Reporter & Associate Editor which have protested the government with how we got here, and how the Trump [email protected] increasing frequency in recent months. administration’s missteps have once again Popular disaffection with the PSUV has also failed the Venezuelan people. Rather than

led to a growing willingness of small leftist just sitting these elections out, a coalition of Michael Shifter, President opposition voices tried to pressure Maduro Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow Juan Guaidó is a to hold a clean vote. In September, they suc- Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow clear loser: on Jan. ceeded in getting the regime to pardon more Joan Caivano, Senior Advisor than 100 dissidents and to request interna- 5 he will be without Michael Camilleri, Director, Rule of Law Program tional observation from the European Union any public post within Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow and United Nations. The European Union Héctor Castro Vizcarra, Nonresident Senior Fellow Venezuela...” even sent a mission to Caracas to encourage Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow — Gabriel B. Hetland this deal, after first getting support from the Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program European and Latin American members of Peter Hakim, President Emeritus parties to challenge the government, but the the International Contact Group on Venezu- Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow PCV’s low vote suggests this strategy has ela. However, these efforts were undercut Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and yet to find much traction. Juan Guaidó is a by a White House that does not believe in Latin America Program Manuel Orozco, Senior Fellow clear loser: on Jan. 5 he will be without any multilateralism. The Trump administration Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow public post within Venezuela, making his attacked the European diplomats and Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow implausible claim to Venezuela’s presidency accused the European Union of engaging in Mateo Samper, Nonresident Senior Fellow all the harder to sustain. Guaidó may retain ‘cowboy diplomacy.’ With the United States Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration some international support, but his appeal actively undermining them, negotiations fell Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program among (nonexile) Venezuelans is likely to through. This is par for the course for the Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development, remain exceedingly low. This reflects the Trump administration. Last year’s talks, fa- External Relations & Special Projects utter failure of Guaidó’s strategy to change cilitated by Norway, also collapsed after the the country. The task for the government White House pulled the rug out from under Latin America Advisor is published every business day, except for major U.S. holidays, and the opposition remains the same as it opposition negotiators. This is a lesson for by the Inter-American Dialogue at has been for years: to resolve Venezuela’s the incoming Biden administration, which 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20005 crisis requires dialogue and negotiations should be actively working to make one www.thedialogue.org that will allow for the recuperation of thing clear: the only way out of this crisis is ISSN 2163-7962 political democracy, the end of debilitating a negotiated solution—and Biden will need to Subscription inquiries are welcomed at and criminal U.S. sanctions, and movement demonstrate that it is in Maduro’s interest to [email protected] toward a program of economic and social return to the table.” The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of reform that will address the population’s dire Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily situation with immediate, universal aid and a The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole sustainable program of economic recovery. section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. Unfortunately, none of this appears to be on at [email protected]. The information in this report has been obtained from the immediate horizon.” reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.