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Eastern Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in September 2016, this 130-page electronically-delivered report comes in two parts:

 A 98-page PDF giving an executive summary, operator analysis, country- by-country analysis and forecasts.  An excel workbook giving comparison tables and country-by-country forecasts in detail for 64 operators across 18 territories for every year from 2010 to 2021.

Countries and operators covered:

Country No of ops Operators Belarus 2 MTIS, Zala Bosnia 3 , M:Tel; Total TV Bulgaria 5 , , , M:Tel, Mobitel Croatia 2 Max TV/T-HT, Vip Cyprus 2 Cytavision; Cablenet Czech Rep 4 UPC, O2, Digi TV, Skylink Estonia 3 Starman/Zuum, Elion, Viasat 2 , OTE Hungary 5 T-Home, Digi TV, UPC, Invitel, MinDig Latvia 4 Baltcom, Izzi, Lattelecom, Viasat Lithuania 3 TEO, Cgates, Viasat 9 Multimedia Polska, UPC, Vectra, Inea, Toya, TP/Orange, Cyfra , NC+, Romania 4 RCS-RDS/Digi TV, UPC, Telecom Romania, Orange TV Russia 8 Akado, ER Telecom, MTS, , /Vimpelcom, NTV Plus, Tricolor, Orion Serbia 2 SBB, 3 UPC, Skylink, Nova Digi/ Slovenia 3 Telemach, Siol TV, Total TV Ukraine 1 Volia

Forecasts (2010-2021) contain the following detail for each country:

By country: TV households Digital cable subs Analog cable subs Pay IPTV subscribers Pay digital satellite TV subs Pay DTT homes Total pay TV subscribers Pay TV revenues

By operator (and by platform by operator): Pay TV subscribers Share of pay TV subscribers by operator Subscription & VOD revenues Share of pay TV revenues by operator ARPU

Growth for most of Eastern Europe’s top pay TV operators

Given the poor economic prospects of most countries in the region and pay TV market slowdown, the Eastern Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts report notes that 44 of Eastern Europe’s top 64 operators will increase their subscriber bases between 2015 and 2021.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “So 20 of the top operators will lose subscribers – or 31% of the total. Perhaps this is not that unpredictable given that the region still had 24.5 million analog cable TV subscribers by end-2015.”

Often paying low subscription fees, most of these homes will convert to digital pay TV platforms but some will move to -to-air DTT, especially in countries such as Russia, Romania and Poland that have been slow to convert to digital terrestrial.

Covering 106 platforms across 18 countries, the 64 top operators collectively generated 78% of Eastern Europe’s pay TV subscribers by end-2015. Market consolidation will see this proportion grow to 84% of the region’s 83.7 million pay TV subscribers by 2021.

Top five pay TV operators by subscribers (000) Ranking Operator Country 2015 Ranking Operator Country 2021 1 Tricolor Russia 11,799 1 Tricolor Russia 13,666 2 Rostelecom Russia 8,610 2 Rostelecom Russia 9,014 3 Cyfra Polsat Poland 3,567 3 Cyfra Polsat Poland 3,644 4 ER Telecom Russia 2,801 4 Orion Russia 3,265 5 Orion Russia 2,800 5 MTS Russia 2,922 Source: Digital TV Research

Not only is Russia’s Tricolor the regional leader by subscribers, but it will gain the most subs (1.87 million) by 2021. /UPC has operations in five Eastern European countries, with its collective subscriber count climbing from 4.21 million at end-2015 to 4.98 million by 2021.

Despite having more subscribers, Russia’s main operators do not feature as highly in the top 10 ranking by subscription and PPV revenues, due to the low fees that they charge. Poland’s will remain the revenue market leader, although Russia’s Rostelecom will gain the most (up by $132 million).

For more information on the Eastern Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts report, please contact: Simon Murray, [email protected], Tel: +44 20 8248 5051

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2016 Title Publication Price Date 1 Digital TV Sub-Saharan Africa Forecasts January £900/$1350/€1125 2 Digital TV Middle East & North Africa January £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 3 Digital TV Asia Pacific Forecasts March £900/$1350/€1125 4 Digital TV Latin America Forecasts March £900/$1350/€1125 5 Digital TV North America Forecasts March £500/$750/€625 6 Digital TV Eastern Europe Forecasts April £900/$1350/€1125 7 Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts April £900/$1350/€1125 8 Digital TV World Household Forecasts April £1300/$1950/€1625 9 Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts May £1300/$1950/€1625 10 Digital TV World Databook May £800/$1200/€1000 11 Middle East & Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts May £900/$1350/€1125 12 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 13 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 14 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £500/$750/€625 15 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 16 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 17 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1500/$2250/€1875 18 Asia Pacific Pay TV Operator Forecasts August £900/$1350/€1125 19 Middle East & Africa Pay TV Operator August £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 20 Latin America Pay TV Operator Forecasts August £900/$1350/€1125 21 North America Pay TV Operator Forecasts September £500/$750/€625 22 Eastern Europe Pay TV Operator September £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 23 Western Europe Pay TV Operator September £900/$1350/€1125 Forecasts 24 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts October £1500/$2250/€1875 25 Middle East & Africa SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 26 Asia Pacific SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 27 Latin America SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 28 North America SVOD Forecasts November £500/$750/€625 29 Eastern Europe SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 30 Western Europe SVOD Forecasts December £900/$1350/€1125 31 Global SVOD Forecasts December £1500/$2250/€1875

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