https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-51 Preprint. Discussion started: 27 March 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. The Volcanoes of Naples: how effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World? Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, Renato Somma Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Diocleziano 328, Naples, Italy 5 Correspondence to: Giuseppe De Natale (
[email protected]) Abstract. The Naples (Southern Italy) area has the highest volcanic risk in the World, due to the coexistence of three highly explosive volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia) with extremely dense urbanisation. More than three millions people live to within twenty kilometres from a possible eruptive vent. Mitigating such an extreme risk is made difficult because volcanic eruptions forecast is today an empirical procedure with very uncertain outcome. This paper starts recalling 10 the state of the art of eruption forecast, and then describes the main hazards in the Neapolitan area, shortly presenting the activity and present state of its volcanoes. Then, it proceeds to suggest the most effective procedures to mitigate the extreme volcanic and associated risks. The problem is afforded in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban issues. The proposed mitigation actions are then compared with the existing emergency plans, developed by Italian Civil Protection, by highlighting their numerous, very evident faults. Our study, besides 15 regarding the most complex and extreme situation of volcanic risk in the World, gives guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area. 1. Introduction Volcanic eruptions, in particular super-eruptions from large calderas, represent one of the highest natural threats to the mankind (Newhall and Dzurisin 1988, Papale and Marzocchi, 2019).