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Dublin Retail Market Commentary July 2018

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Dublin Retail Market Commentary July 2018 Dublin Retail Market Commentary July 2018 Accelerating success. FIG. 1 - RETAIL SALES INDEX* (BASE YEAR 2010 = 100) RETAIL COMMENTARY JULY 2018 YEAR VOLUME INDEX VALUE INDEX Notwithstanding the buoyant economic backdrop, 2018 has been a 2013 97.5 96.1 somewhat uncertain year for the retail sector and the outlook for 2014 102.7 98.9 the residue of the year, and beyond, shows little of the underlying 2015 110.3 102.8 occupational strength of the Office, Residential and Industrial sectors. 2016 116.1 105.3 With a sector so heavily populated by internationally headquartered operators (eg ; Debenhams, M&S, House of Fraser, Inditex, H&M) it is 2017 126.8 110.1 unsurprising that there is a degree or nervousness in certain parts of the To June 2018 annual change 4.6% 4.0% marketplace given the negative media speculation and adverse trading * Total Retail sales for all business combined (excl. Motor Trades) warnings surrounding many high profile retailers. In the year to end of June, Department Stores (Seasonally adjusted Value growth +2.5%; Volume +5.7%) and Electricals (Value -2.4%, Volume +10.5% ) have been hardest hit. On the flip side Hardware, Paints & Glass surged ahead with sales values rising 11.3% y/y (volume 13.5%) - no doubt VOLUME +5.7% VOLUME 13.5% a reflection of the buoyant construction sector Department Stores Hardware 2016 • 50% 2017 • 28% Q1 2018 • 3.3% Given the exposure of the Irish retail market to foreign based Boojum, NolaClan, Sprout etc, to franchise operators such parent companies there will always be concerns around as Jamie’s, 5 Guys and also mainstream brands such as Retail Compared To All Investment Transactions In The Irish Marketplace trading warnings, negative press opinions etc from the likes Caffe Nero, Costa Coffee and Starbucks. Easily the most of large players such as Debenhams, H&M, Monsoon, Next, high-profile F&B transaction this year has been the opening and so on – as well as around well publicised insolvency of The Ivy, by Caprice Holdings, in Green REIT’s prestigious From 2016 when retail accounted for some 50% of all It seems surprising therefore that given ongoing positive / CVA cases such as New Look, Carpetright, House of new development at One Molesworth Street. investment transactions in the Irish marketplace, the sector economic background indicators, relatively few retailers Fraser, Maplin etc. Thinking about it, the Irish retail market contracted to about 28% in 2017 and a mere 3.3% in the are reporting a translation of all this into their pockets is somewhat doubly exposed, not only to local trading Owners of shopping centres are also focusing on improving first quarter of 2018. That said the majority of shopping (though Arcadia Group’s Irish operation including its various conditions, but also to foreign ones. their F&B and leisure mix to make shopping more experiential centres and retail parks in Ireland have changed hands fascias, Topshop / Topman, Burton, Dorothy Perkins, Evans in order to defend footfall and increase dwell time. Expect to over the past 5 years, and one would expect some subdued and Miss Selfridge has been a notable exception, unlike Undoubtedly, online retailing is a disruptor and a threat to see more and more focus on all this moving forward. transactional activity whilst the new owners asset manage, its UK operations where it is a somewhat different story) bricks and mortar retailing – with some 12.5% of Ireland’s reshape and reposition their acquisitions. What has been and equally few are looking to increase their real estate annual €40bn consumer spending now done online. To Occupiers most active in the market noteworthy was how the sheer weight of international footprints. Recent pronouncements from the Central compound matters, some 60% of this online spend is to are discounters & food retailers such capital that pursued retail investment opportunities drove Statistics Office about positive retail sales growth (4.6% in overseas companies. Tellingly, in a recent trading statement, as Lidl, Aldi, Supervalu, Dealz whist down yields, whilst in the background there was limited the year to June ’18) mask the ongoing struggle for retailers international retailer Next announced that online sales were Tesco recently opened its largest new occupier demand to underpin the rental flows and between Sales Values and Sales Volumes. growing at a rate of 8% per annum, whilst in-store sales store at Liffey Valley. drive rental growth. This is in marked contrast to the Office were declining by 10%. sector where values have been driven not only by investor Since the economic crash there has been a mismatch demand, but more importantly by the continuous supply of between Volume and Value in the recovery of consumer One sector definitely feeling the warmth of consumer tenants with huge appetites for space. spending. For more than 5 years, the Annual CSO Sales spending is Food and Beverage (“F&B”) where occupational Value Index has lagged the Volume Index (see Fig. 1 below), demand across the board has never been as strong. The More than any other sector Retail is a reflection of wider pointing to ongoing discounting by retailers (to the benefit of appetite (no pun intended) in this sector encouragingly economic metrics (eg; GDP Growth, unemployment, wage consumers however!), and illustrating that as a breed they comes from homegrown operators such as Press Up growth etc) and is heavily reliant on consumer sentiment. are still taking the pain. Group, Bunsen, Avoca, Fallon & Byrne, Mercantile Group, FIG. 2 - ZONE A HEADLINE RENTS (ZONE A) CURRENT € PER SQ. M. PEAK 2006 € PER SQ. M. Grafton Street €6,500 €9,500 Henry Street €4,500 €7,500 Dundrum T.C €4,500 €3,500 Blanchardstown S.C €3,000 €3,400 Liffey Valley S.C €2,700 €3,900 Dublin Retail Parks €193 - €410 €215 - €376 (Overall) Regional Retail Parks €118 - €215 €160 - €247 (Overall) Liffey Valley, Blanchardstown, Tallaght, Carrickmines) will Net Initial Yield (“NIY”) of approx. 5.5% (assuming normal continue to attract new retailers and expand their focus acquisition costs). Separately at the tail end of last year, on experiential retail. However, other than in exceptional another German Fund, AEW, purchased 2-4 O’Connell St, circumstances rental growth we believe is likely to be Dublin 1. Leased to Ulster Bank (RBS Group) the reported limited for some time to come. Outside of Dublin, secondary price of €13m reflected a NIY of 4.25%. schemes and retail parks are likely to be somewhat subdued and it will be a while before many return to full occupancy Currently (July ’18), No. 4 Henry St (Sketchers Shoes and achieve meaningful rental growth. occupy the entire of this modern 4 Storey building of 5,750 sq. ft. on a 15 year lease from Sept 2010) is reportedly “sale Finally, some observations in relation to the Retail Capital agreed” at €8.65m, reflecting a NIY 3.84%. 68% Market. As mentioned earlier the sector which accounted for some 50% of overall investment spend in 2015, fell to 28% In what will undoubtedly be a defining illustration of pricing in 2017, and sub 5% Q1 2018. We do not expect its market for “prime” retail, the Next building (referred to earlier) at Henry Street Grafton Street Jervis Shopping Centre share to rise appreciably for the rest of the year although 7-9 Henry Street has been placed on the market. The overall & Swords Pavilions market rumours persist of a potential Retail REIT launch building extends to approx. 35,000 sq. ft. with international which would see Oaktree transferring most (or presumably standard floor plates of 8-10,000 sq. ft. and has been leased In Dublin City Centre (Zone A’s remain at approx. 68% of peak all) of its retail schemes (incl. The Square Tallaght, Navan to Next at €1.75m p.a. on a 15 year lease with a 10 year recently high-profile openings include The White Company on Retail Park, Parkway Retail Park Limerick, Sligo Retail Park, (tenant) break option. The price sought, €42.6m, reflects a Grafton Street and a new 35,000 sq. ft. flagship for Next on Henry Waterford Retail Park, and other schemes) into it. NIY of 3.79%, though as at end July ’18 no announcements Street. JD Sports have also upsized at the Jervis Shopping Centre on the bidder line-up have been made. and Swords Pavilions, where River Island has also increased its Like other sectors Retail has matured significantly, with footprint. yields (but not rents, see Fig 2) substantially back toward previous (2006/07) peak ; prime Dublin high street (Grafton Other niche retailers such as Hotel Chocolat have announced and upgraded, whilst IPUT have launched plans to enlarge St / Henry St) at approx. 3.5%; Prime Shopping Centres and expansion plans and there is a reasonable trickle of new The Park Retail Park in Carrickmines. Nearby, Hines are Retail Warehousing both in our opinion at 4.5% - 5%. retailers looking to come to Ireland (eg; lifestyle retailer continuing with their Cherrywood Town Centre plans whilst Oliver Bonas, JYSK Furnishings, Decathlon) whilst others it is expected that new plans to enlarge The Square Tallaght The most significant transaction to date in 2018 has been who arrived in the past 5 years (eg; Sostrene Greene) are will shortly be lodged. In the City centre, there are new the sale of Westend Retail Park, Blanchardstown by Green also expanding. developments underway at Chatham / King Street whilst REIT to Deutsche Bank Real Estate Fund, for a reported €147.7m planning consent for some 7,600 sq. m. of new retail at €147.7m.
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